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Niles did his job. He pumped the stock prior to the update so everyone could distribute their shares. Niles is a weasel.
Oops, I forgot the (g).
I'm quite short EXPE.
Looks like there's a flight to quality now that the semis are down and folks are buying EXPE.
There goes 1300...
Mar 06 8:30 AM Initial Claims 03/01 430K vs. 403K expectations
Mar 06 8:30 AM Productivity-Rev. Q4 0.8% vs. 0.2% expectations
In case you all haven't seen this data yet.
Since I posted this last message a week ago, software stocks SAP, PSFT, and ORCL are down 14%, 8%, and 7% respectively whereas the NAS is only down 1.7%.
My guess closings are 7745 for the Dow and 1307 for the Naz (same plus minus as usual...).
Zeev
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Zeev, you were close on the NAS (+/- let's say a point) but quite a bit off on the DOW...
Simply amazing!
Fed Res, your posts kill me, LMAO.
Great news Joe, congrats! Looks like once we break to new lows on the NAS you may be able to put away some "buy and hold" shares for the grandkids college fund!
EXPE just made a new LOD. Let's see if this is a fakeout and they ramp it or if they're letting some of the air out of the balloon.
No problem, it was just for fun and I hope it piqued a little curiosity here and there. I thought it was an interesting exercise but that's probably because it's a bit more special when Daddy is thinking of his little girl.
Correct, 11-11-3111, more than a thousand years after 11-19-1999. I just thought it was pretty wild that another all odd birthday doesn't come for another 1,000 years. Funny how your mind notices these things.
Sorry for the diversion, back to market discussion.
* OT * Fun with numbers. We had a daughter on 11-19-1999. Can anyone tell me when the next all ODD NUMBER 8 digit birthday falls? This was something I noticed about 6 months after her birthday when I was looking at a form with her birthdate and did the calculation. The answer was pretty cool.
Larry, frankly this looks more like the MLSOFT indicator as he's the only one taking a stand. Neutral is too easy a choice and probably shouldn't be allowed. You can put a time frame on the indicator (short term, long term; but you would need to define what they mean) to make it easier to take a position.
Also, shouldn't we add you and Zeev to this list as you both have over 100 Peoplemarks?
Are all the plus 100's willing to play this game? If not, the effectiveness of the indicator obviously dissipates in time. I think this would be a very valuable indicator if the participants participate.
Thanks for attempting to jump start this process.
It's already happening in Northern CA, especially anywhere close to Silicon Valley. I believe in San Francisco, we're overbuilt with tons of high end (> $1M) condos and they have been dropping at least 10% from their highs. Also, commercial real estate in SF has an all time high vacancy rate of around 24%. And keep in mind I still see the Bay Area as one of the most desirable place to live on earth.
Just like everything else, we have too much inventory which is one of the reasons you see GDP improving. It takes a little time to stop the manufacturing presses but it will happen.
I see a correction in high end residential real estate of 10 - 20% off the highs coming in the next year or two. What happens is many of these people that were looking to buy $1M plus homes have now stepped down to let's say $500K - $1M homes so you are seeing that market and the lower end market improve in price but I believe that will only last another year at most and this is with interest rates at all time lows.
Building slowing - an ancillary observation:
On Saturday, I ran out to my local Truitt and White lumber store to pick up a new door threshold and noticed a larger number of "workers for hire" lining the streets than I have ever seen.
For some time, Truitt and White (in Berkeley, CA) has been the "meeting spot" every morning for people looking for hourly "off the books" type projects. Most of these workers are immigrant workers that are paid far less than the typical bonded general contractor companies you see in the yellow pages. And they generally do decent work although it's a crapshoot - keep in contact with the really good ones when you find them.
Anyway, I believe there are usually around 50 or so people on the streets but yesterday at 12:00 noon there were easily 200 or more people lining the streets and flagging cars and trucks down looking for work. By noon, most have usually been picked up for work. It was a pretty amazing site and I believe it's a hint of things to come.
***OT*** [...I can't see this guy having any type of name recognition worth impacting the market...]
No name reocognition? I'm afraid you haven't been following the news the last few months at all. He's not only a big fish, he's an orca.
M_e
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I disagree. First we had all the hysteria about Muhammed Omar and Bin Laden. So they have one of FBIs 22 most wanted terrorists now (and they are almost all al Qaeda). This is just background noise when the major focus is on 1) Iraq and 2) North Korea.
Without Iraq and North Korea this may be a bigger issue and it will have fizzled by Monday anyway but I still expect some spin.
I can't see this guy having any type of name recognition worth impacting the market. There's hundreds more like him just "dying" to take his place on the FBIs most wanted list. But if they have nothing else to spin positively by Monday morning they will not hesitate to try this.
The problems in Turkey create a major barrier to entry for the Northern attack.
Russia says they will veto war in Iraq according to local news. They say they will use their veto power in the UN to veto any plan of war against Iraq. This should create more uncertainty short term.
Let's see if CNBC and briefing try to bury this news like they buried the new home starts today. The new home starts weakness is a huge problem and this will be the beginning of the consumer deflating this housing and spending bubble. Look out below when this rollercoaster takes off.
Positiontrader, haven't you been long for the past couple of weeks? Did you just add to your longs today?
Thanks.
I hit MERQ this morning when it was a buck higher. Nice call again and thanks for sharing.
Bearmove, what are you adding short here, if any?
Not pumping the dollar much though, rally may be getting exhausted here.
DOW and NAS both ramped big time right as the crappy New Home Sales numbers released.
I think we crap very soon.
Saddam playing nice guy just adds to uncertainty and the market will not like that. Bush won't go quietly with all those troops deployed.
Lucent settles with SEC - stock up premarket.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030227/nyth080_1.html
OK, I have not heard anything to the contrary about MSFT. Are you hearing app sw is looking good? i.e. ORCL, PSFT, SAP?
Hail to the king! Looks like you're going to get it.
I sense you think I'm challenging your sources. Apologize if that's the case. As my software data was different, I just wanted to compare data and I mentioned that my frame of reference is the big application software companies.
Sounds like you're referring to MSFT mostly. I never underestimate them and almost put them in a class by themselves but if the big 3 apps companies start to falter, that will certainly impact the tech market.
Thanks Wahz, are these billion dollar plus software companies like ORCL, SAP, and PSFT? It sounds like the big ones are shedding employees and nervous about the upcoming quarters.
"Nearly everyone I know in the sw industry is seeing improvement and quite a bit of it."
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I'm hearing the exact opposite Wahz, starting this quarter. Will do more checking since you're hearing good things.
Thanks Steviee, this is similar to comments Whitman from EBAY made this morning saying they are showing "concern," especially if we go to war. Sounds to me like a somewhat subtle and convenient earnings warning?
Keep forgetting these companies (ORB) that post earnings before the market. Anyway, they looked pretty impressive. See if we can get over $6.
I'm liking the drop because I am short EXPE but I wouldn't be surprised in a lunch bump at all. I probably won't play it and just stay short.
What do you think of AMGN short here?
ORB seems to be getting another boost today. Think I'll hold through earnings as well.
EXPE just dropped a buck? Don't know why but I'm liking it.
I think we're just getting started as well. While the major software companies (ORCL, SAP, and PSFT) have weathered the storm fairly well, I believe they are in for some serious earnings misses and reduced guidance in the next quarter or two. The economy will leave nothing unscathed.
In edit, looks like you just responded to this but feel free to provide any more detail on the technicals.
Zeev, seems we are still in Phase 1 of GN-03. Are you saying we may not even complete Phase 1 without a powerful bull up?
First time in a while we see you potentially getting bullish or the turnips are giving mixed signals. You mention some fundamentals in your post but are your technicals giving you bullish signals? Internals still bearish?
thanks
Exactly, it is always in Gartner's best interest to be the first to call the "turnaround" because they can sell all their "magic quadrants" and other "industry data" to all the tech companies which in turn add the fancy charts to their powerpoint presentations in desparate hopes that they will convince their own customers to start buying again.
I believe the big software companies are looking at a tough Q1 as well so I would think MLSOFT's negative data about the equipment co's is accurate.
Bearmove, what do you think of LU as a buying opp here after being taken down on the Telco news yesterday?