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I think that whatever bottom the Spx makes will be followed by a run back up to the 1160-1165 area for a double top. Then another nasty decline.
Took some short profit. Dropped back from 200% to 80/200 short.
Pigs get fat...Hogs get slaughtered.
Check your inbox for my response.
Bonds have priced in something. LOL, I'm not sure much lower yields would be achievable. In edit, deflation would do it.
As well as testing 1163, the Spx has back tested the break of the Aug/Oct trendline from below. Bearish failures today.
This looks like 01/02 price action. Profits are made by selling.
Spx failure at 1160-1165 resistence. Now we go down to test support.
Moved long part of hedge to Spx short, now 200%. Looks like the test of the 1160-1165 area failed.
Only for the open. Since Rydex has a morning trade time I can get some idea of morning prices from the futures and European Bourses.
Usually, I have to set my trades by this very limited data since I have no market access at work.
Saw that somewhere too. It seems institutions think the cycle has ended...
Consumer spending is facing many headwinds. Too lenghty a dissertation for here LOL.
Big positive fair value on Futes.
U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
June 2005 Change Price Last updated
S&P 500† +0.60 1157.80 4/24 19:16
Fair Value 1153.30 4/22 19:01
Difference * +4.50 4/22 19:01
June 2005 Change Price Last updated
NASDAQ† +2.50 1434.00 4/24 19:13
Fair Value 1427.17 4/22 19:01
Difference * +6.83
On the long side...Healthcare, Consumer Non Cyclicals, and Energy.
Short... Tech, Financials, and Consumer Durable.
Greenspan warning congress on budget defecits is a death knell for continuation of the temporary tax cuts that helped prevent a more serious downturn in 2001.
I think the market fears rising taxes, interest rates, and inflation's effect on consumer spending.
I do.
Problem with cheap credit is it still needs paid back. Secondly, cheap financing has borrowed demand from the future.
Um, the future is here.
Folks in financial difficulties are soon .................
BEING STREET SMART
By Sy Harding
THE MIDDLE CLASS GETS THE SHAFT - AGAIN! April 22, 2005 .
Folks in financial difficulties are soon going to find it much more difficult to declare bankruptcy. This week Congress passed the most severe revision of bankruptcy laws since 1978. It will go into effect in 180 days.
On the surface it seems like a good idea. We've all heard of the O.J. Simpsons, and corrupt corporate chieftains who manage to declare bankruptcy to shield themselves from judgments they could otherwise be forced to pay; those who hide assets or illegally transfer property to relatives before declaring bankruptcy; and even those who could probably eventually pay off the indebtedness if they sucked it up and got at it.
But we probably also know unfortunate souls who became hopelessly indebted through accidents, major family illnesses, or small business owners dumped into a dark hole when their businesses went under through no fault of their own (perhaps the arrival of a WalMart next door, or the re-routing of a highway).
Some members of the Congressional Rules Committee were upset because they could not even get an amendment that would exclude individuals whose debt can be proved to be tied to overwhelming medical expenses. However, the bill does apply a 'means test' that excludes those with less than the median income in the state in which they live, making it apply mostly to the middle class.
It disturbs me, but doesn't surprise me, that those pushing the bill were primarily finance and credit-card companies, and their lobbyists. (Opposing its passage were labor unions, women's groups, and consumer groups).
I'd feel a bit better about it if there was at least a companion bill making it illegal for finance and credit-card companies to indiscriminately stuff mailboxes with pre-approved loan applications and credit cards, many of which reach those who might be desperate.
I'd feel better about it if the timing was different, coming just as signs are piling up that, through no fault of their own, higher gasoline prices, rising interest rates, and rising inflation are taking money out of consumers' pockets, beginning to make it more difficult for many to meet their payments.
It bothers me some that they got themselves into this record debt under one set of bankruptcy laws, and now that the debt has been incurred the rules are changed.
But it bothers me most that consumers didn't get into excessive debt entirely through their own disregard of risk, or foolishness. I do remember 2001 very clearly.
The stock market was already in the second year of a serious bear market. Two or three trillion dollars of investors' savings and investments had already been wiped out in that market decline. Consumers were feeling the pinch and had begun to cut back on their spending, which had the economy slowing into recession. And then along came the calamity of the terrorist attacks on 9-11-2001 . It looked like that would push the economy into a much more serious decline. Airlines were grounded, but no one wanted to fly anyway. The travel and tourist industry fell into a dark hole. Consumers retrenched into their homes, leaving shopping malls empty. Car salesmen passed their time throwing darts and playing cribbage.
Washington 's immediate response was that Americans had to show Osama bin Laden that he could not bring our economy down, or destroy our will. The president himself said that the most important thing that Americans could do was to get out and spend, that in fact it was the patriotic thing to do, as it would get the economy back on its feet and show the terrorists that they could not destroy the spirit of the American people.
To help consumers do that, tax rebates were issued, and when Washington worried that people might just stick them in their savings accounts, we were told to get out and spend them to help the economy. Interest rates were lowered to make it easier. More tax cuts came along. Everyone got into the act of convincing Americans to spend, that even going in debt to do so was the patriotic thing to do. Banks and mortgage companies, particularly the now-troubled giant government-chartered mortgage company Fannie Mae, lowered their credit standards and minimum down-payments. Consumers were encouraged to refinance their mortgages and in the process take money out of the equity in their homes. Credit-card companies offered new cards with low introductory rates, and flooded mail boxes with them. Auto companies offered zero percent financing, and rebates that could be used as down-payments.
And Washington 's plan worked. Consumers came through with flying colors. They did in fact spend the economy out of trouble.
Washington had hoped that if consumers got the thing going, corporations would step in and pick up the ball with spending of their own. But they didn't, and consumers were left with the burden of doing it all. And they didn't shirk their duty, even though as they spent the economy out of trouble they spent themselves into potential trouble.
And that's what really bothers me about credit-card and finance companies pushing for, and Congress passing, severe revision of bankruptcy laws with this particular timing. As one critic put it, "It's a serious betrayal of the middle class, with serious consequences for hurting Americans in order to help the credit-card companies."
Yes, it excludes the poor. But unfortunately it was the middle class that responded to Washington 's assurances that they could, and should, save the economy, and ran with it. And for some of them who did the heaviest lifting, their reward is on the way.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/HARDING.html
JLSegal...re: 1400 target on Comp........................
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: bfenton who wrote msg# 383544 Date:4/22/2005 1:03:17 PM
Post #of 383905
More like 1750 by July, the 1400 is a potentiality in late September early October.
Zeev
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=6123564
Update...+.20 YTD
How do you trade this crap? I hedged my 120% short Spx with 80% long Ndx with the intention of going all short after the necklines are tested.
Confused by the whipsaws. Took profit on Gold and small loss on Juno and hedged Spx 120% short with 80/200 Ndx long.
Looks like Ndx wants to fill the gap.
The ones heading for the Hampton's in short order...
Different methods. I see it as at the top of it's trading range with 109-110 being a buy and 114 a sell.
So what is the bond market doing then? I'll probably be out tomorrow anyway...so far a profitable trade.
Taking off Ndx long from 1427 and shorting Spx 120/200. Still holding 20% gold and 20% bond short.
I don't think the bond market is accurately discounting inflation expectations. If PPI/CPI come in high it's going in the tank.
Put a 20% short on the 30 yr bond. Interesting candlestick...
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=6070014
Great find. You're the first to spot that...that I know of. Yes, a perfect example.
$USB chart. Into some good resistance and I think it reverses down again on the 114+ gap fill. Looking to enter a short here.
Charts with time frame expanded...
I think we flag up to fill the gap, simmilar to that Jan. gap. No telling if there's further down first or not. 35.75-36 qqqq would be a good short entry. I covered my major short what seems like long ago now and have only had small short term positions since. I'd like to see bullish sentiment get higher to put on a larger position.
Geez, you busted my bubble <ggg>.
When to toggle to bear market interpretation of oversold indicators is the question.
The two highest correlating charts on Mrci preparing to diverge,
Why? Why is...if the bounce indicators that have worked in the past two years are still working today we have a short term rally. Be careful relying to heavily on sentiments here, it does not reflect J6P, who sells fear and buys greed.
Close enough at 180 for a core position.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=6003056
Indicators are in an oversold position which has produced rallies over the last two years. Price action has penetrated the lower BB which has resulted in a move back to the center line. The caveat is perhaps my methods are too simple?
Looking to add a Dow position Mon.
Looking at charts and reading sentiment around the boards makes me want to get longer.
Put in order for 40/200 long NDX @ AM price and 20% long precious metals PM price. Looks like we gap down to 1430.
Let the games begin LOL....
Sold Bios. Down 1.17% on the trade and down .01 for the year. Fugly chit going on here.