Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
HI AIm hier,
On the continent the prices are more like in the states. at least the prices I follow. Corus is in Holland on of the cheap stocks because the UK link. Other tech stocks have low prices, but that is another story.
Kind Regards,K
Euronext 100
Corus is part of the Euronext 100 index.
Also Corus is the first candidate for the FTSE100 index, and will probably be promoted to this index.
Not a penny stock. These indexes are the premier european indices!
Kind regards,K
Aim Hier,
I don't know if you react to the Corus story.
Shares in the UK have lower prices than for example in the US and Holland. Before the merger the dutch component of Corus had typical pricing of 25 dollars per share.
Nowadays the price is much lower(UK price settings), although the company is roughly similar in a similar environment. I was already aiming this stock when a share was 25 dollar.
So if the price is cheap then it still can be a quality company.
But that applies to all AIM machines: aim quality.
Kind regards,K
Hi Conrad,
Corus is also creating a new steel gaspipeline between the UK and the Netherlands. You can easily calculate the length of the pipeline and if you know the diameter, assuming a certain thickness, you can easily calculate the amount of steel needed. Then it follows: the amount of labour, the costs, the selling price etc.
These nice (semi) governmental projects keep a company alife. Especially when a company is perceived as strategic on a national level.
Kind Regards,K
Hi Conrad,
For Corus I see a 4 bagger from here and then we are back at the British Steel/Hoogovens merger price. From there on a 2 bagger should be possible.
Also watch closely at the following phenomenon: with Corus, and probably the same with similar companies, you will get a selling climax where the price accelerates upwards and will reach the outer atmosphere. A short stabilization will take place where everybody will say that this is the plateau from which the next wave will roll. At this plateau liquidate the portfolio and wait till the next Macro AIM point. The plateau could exist for only a few days. The price drop will be fast.
The selling climax will be a sharp peak. Look at the stock history. It is not too late to join the 'steel express'.
This is the steel age. China is using three quarters of all world steel. The US army is exporting steel from IRAQ where they take it from all possible structures. The russians are trying to buy all steel factories in europe. Corus has some of the most modern and most efficient factories in the world.
Their product quality is world class and unique. There are some nice steel websites where you can develop a finely tuned feeling for this market. I, personally, don't have the time to watch these events too closely, although they arouse some interest. So AIM is doing the job at the moment.
Kind Regards, K
And another one...
Shipped 5% of Corus for a Lifo gain of 243.5%
Parameters 20,0,10,5
Kind Regards, K
Hi Conrad,
When the gurus say sell, you should buy!
I am only selling because AIM tells me :)
Kind Regards, K
Hi Conrad,
1-Macro AIM is best with high amplitude, I think. Corus has that kind of amplitude, TPG does not have the amplitude.
2-Macro AIm, when to buy. I guess you are talking about the whipsaw effect. When the MA200 is flat, I don't think Macro is appropriate. Only after a declining MA200, probably when the first derivative of the MA200 is getting less negative and the second derivative is positive, I think you should implement Macro and do the buy. If you don't buy at that moment, I think you sort of start hating yourself afterwards :).
For small fluctuations you should use AIM or Vortex or XDev.
3-Keep renting your PO box from TPG. Dont move! However the savings you get from not renting could be transformed into TPG shares!
Kind Regards,K
Hi Conrad,
The Corus yield is higher because the selling is from a Macro buy which was at a much lower price. I like Macro Aim when buying.
When you sell the postbox, maybe you can use the proceeds to buy some TPG stock :)
Kind Regards,K
lol
today shipped 5% of TPG(TNT Post group) for a lifo gain of 31.8%
parameters 20,0,6,5
kind regards,K
New sell
Sold today 5% of my Corus shares for a lifo gain of 208.6%
Parameters(20,0,10,5)
Kind Regards,K
Selling Peak Experience!
Today a sell in Corus(CRS), the anglo-dutch steel maker.
The lifo gain was 173.1%. This number is high because I am still selling the shares I bought at the MACRO buy point.
Parameters 20,0,10,5 (BS,SS,MB,MS)
Kind Regards,K
Hi Conrad,
For compounding I have been looking at compounding resonances.
For what values of parameter settings of certain mathematical formulas do you get a compounding resonance? The yield function is not a constant and it is interesting to see what resonates.
After the definition of the resonance parameter set, a trading vehicle can be selected which will deliver the resonance experience.
A few years ago I did something along these lines in Maple. I saw some nice functions/graphs which could indicate certain formula resonance behaviour. I lost the formulas and the Maple files, but am still trading 1% sizes, because in certain formula sets there were yield resonance indications. 1% as always only where transaction costs are independent of transaction size.
Frequency and Amplitude are important variables, but these variables in my view can be broken down in lower level parameter sets. It is also the future frequency and amplitude that is important. If you could know these parameters than you could define the optimal resonance by a prefect trading pattern.
I have the feeling that this is difficult and one of the reasons is that these parameters are not the correct ones for a resonance function. For example you should use Volume times Amplitude. In itself Amplitude is nothing.
Of course the definition or the derivation of the yield function defines what parameters will be important for resonances.
For what it is worth,
Kind Regards,K
Conrad,
You are right, for an exact solution you should introduce different P's.
The practical application however is not precise and not meant to be precise. So for a first approximation it is not a F(P), but a constant independent of P.
I don't think we should spend more time investigating the exact formula's.
If you want to investigate exact formula's in the compounding arena, a more fruitful area would be AIM's compounding formula or Vortex compounding formula, where the theoretical results would impact your trading. ( that is one of the drivers behind my 1% sells).
More fun?, K
Xn/Xm=(N/M)*((N^(1/P)-1)/(M^(1/P)-1))
Doing the derivation again:
X2 = 100 * P * ( 2 ^ (1/P) -1 )
X3 = 100 * P * ( 3 ^ (1/P) -1 )
X3/X2 = (3 ^ (1/P) -1) / (2 ^ (1/P - 1)
etc.
I did the derivation at the top in the bath without looking at the screen and used the wrong formula in my head obviously replacing the first P with a 2,3 etc. After this correction the formula is even simpler
Xn/Xm=(N^(1/P)-1) / (M^(1/P)-1)
I hope this is the right formula!
Please insert the numbers for the specified period(value of P).
X3/X2=(3/2)*1.095
X3=70*(3/2)*1.095=115
Xn/Xm=(N/M)*((N^(1/P)-1)/(M^(1/P)-1))
1 triple = 1.5 double->70*1.5=115
Just one more minor point
You have shown that 72 is better than 70 in a percentage range between 5 and 10 which is the range most often used in commercial environments.
x = 100 * P * ( 2^(1/P) - 1)
p=1 x=100*1*1=100
p=2 x=100*2*0.4142=83
p=3 x=100*3*0.26=78
p=4 x=100*4*0.19=76
p=5 x=100*5*0.15=75
p=10 x=100*10*0.071773463=71.773463......
p=20 x=100*20*0.035264924= 70.53
I want mathcad back!!
In excel you should be able to make a graph
2=(1+X/100*(1/P))^P
2^(1/P) = 1+(X/100)*(1/P)
2^(1/P) - 1 = (x/100) * (1/P)
x = 100 * P * ( 2^(1/P) - 1)
Absolutely
35*2=70
Hi Steve,
The following thought occurred to me: use Husky in the same way as you use AIM, Low Down Husky (LDH).
Did you do some research in this area?
Did anybody look into this?
Kind Regards,K
Hi Tom,
Is it possible for you to ask Bernie to start posting again. It would be nice to read his posts again.
Kind Regards, K
Hi Grabber,
I am not spending the cash now. In my view the market is still going down and I want to wait till better buy opportunities occur. This situation could be a repeat 2000-2004 like we had 1970-1974. Anyway I recovered cash in the last upwave but still don't have enough according to the Iwave guidelines. So I have to wait. If I had more cash, I would buy some stock, just in case the market turns around.
Kind Regards,K
Teleportation goes long distance
Myst, hope you like this news item.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3576594.stm
Physicists have carried out successful teleportation with particles of light over a distance of 600m across the River Danube in Austria.
Long distance teleportation is crucial if dreams of superfast quantum computing are to be realised.
When physicists say "teleportation", they are describing the transfer of key properties from one particle to another without a physical link.
The team has published its findings in the academic journal Nature.
The really interesting question for us was whether we could do this outside a lab setting
Rupert Ursin, University of Vienna
Researchers from the University of Vienna and the Austrian Academy of Science used an 800m-long optical fibre fed through a public sewer system tunnel to connect labs on opposite sides of the River Danube.
The link establishes a channel between the labs, dubbed Alice and Bob. This enables the properties, or "quantum states", of light particles to be transferred between the sender (Alice) and the receiver (Bob).
In the computers of tomorrow, this information would form the qubits (the quantum form of the digital bits 1 and 0) of data processing through the machines.
The Austrian team encoded their qubits using a property of light particles, also called photons, known as polarisation. This property describes the direction in which they oscillate.
Quantum teleportation relies on an aspect of physics known as "entanglement"; whereby the properties of two particles can be tied together even when they are far apart. Einstein called it "spooky action at a distance".
Speed of light
The Nature study used an experimental method in which Alice performs a joint measurement on one photon in the entangled pair and on an "input" photon.
As a result of this measurement, Bob transforms the quantum state of the other photon in the entangled pair into that of the "input" photon.
The researchers were able to teleport three distinct polarisation states between Alice and Bob via the fibre-optic cable through the tunnel. The process is not instantaneous as it is limited by the speed of light, Dr Ursin explained.
The significance of this research was that it took place under "real world" conditions.
"The really interesting question for us was whether we could do this outside a lab setting, in the environment used for today's fibre-optic communications," co-author Dr Rupert Ursin of the University of Vienna told BBC News Online.
"This is very important if you are talking about investing money in quantum communication."
Quantum teleportation could be harnessed for fast, powerful computers or communication networks.
In the underground sewer pipe tunnel, the fibre-optic link was exposed to temperature fluctuations and other environmental factors that could interfere with process.
Nicolas Gisin of the University of Geneva, Switzerland, successfully teleported quantum bits, or qubits, between two labs over 2km of coiled cable. But the actual distance between the two labs was about 55m.
Dr Ursin said a next step towards worldwide quantum communication would be to attempt the teleportation of quantum states between particles using a satellite link.
"The first thing you will need to do is find out whether you can have entanglement over such long distances. But teleportation will be one of the next goals," he added.
The researchers were also able to double the efficiency of teleportation using linear optics.
Hi Conrad,
You have this rule of 70 or 72. That rule makes it possible to calculate very quickly the periodes for a double.
That is all. It is not precise and it is a quick alternative for a spreadsheet or calculation.
So for 3% you have 72 div by 3 is 24 periods for a double.
72 is used because it can be divided by 2,3,4,6 etc.
Have fun, K
Having fun with 70
1000 to 1M is 1000 times is 2^10 is 10*70 = 700 times
100 to 1M is 10 times is 2^3.32 is 3.32*70 = 232 times
Selling!
After a long period of time, today I had a sell and shipped 5% of Wolters Kluwer (WTKWY.PK).
It is always nice to have a sell.
Parameters: 20,0,6,5
Regards,K
Hi Tom,
My energy equity fund is moving upwards (slowly) above the 6MEA. Getting closer to a first sell.
Very positive is that my Royal Dutch/ Shell machine made a definite move up this week. It looks good on the chart.
Energy is starting to move in my portfolio. At least I hope it is not a false start.
Regards,K
Hi all,
In my AIM machine with Mutual funds in it, I started Synchrovest- like buying to decrease average cost. Once a month an incremental add.
That will update PC with 100%, but remember by buying now in stead of 3 years ago, you get a lot more shares.
This activity is relatively minor, but what the heck, I wanted to post a message,
Regards,K
Conrad,
Real good value would be E12.500
With extension modules for E5000 a piece.
Quarterly maintenance at E1000 per quarter.
A new version each year for ....
E25 is just not dear enough
Regards,K
Hi Steve,
This Lifo sheet can handle 3Pops and one Push at any time.
Normally two is enough for me. In 1% of the cases I need three.
You can upgrade to four, but that makes the formulas a bit longer. There is a limit somewhere in Excel of how many IFs you can have nested.
Stock Dividend will be placed on the stack with price zero.
When I sell the stock dividend, I reduce costs in stead of adding the money to cash.
It looks more difficult than it really is. I use it all the time and adapt the grid for each different machine.
You can calculate things like avg price on the stack. For that I normally pad with zero´s at the right. Then you can play AIM with real avg share price and compare with Portfolio Control. There was a discussion about that on the rebal forum. That is not in this spreadsheet but it is built on the stack concept. I actually do not use it, but monitor it for signals. You can built all sorts of things on the stack concept!
Kind Regards,K
Hi steve,
Sent you an email, maybe you got it. After I have sent 96% of the email with attachment I get a funny message. Something like the other email address does not respond or something. I never have this when I sent emails ´locally´.
Regards,K
Hi Grabber,
I need an emailaddress. Your (old?) address is blocked and I get all sorts of funny messages.
Regards,K
Hi Steve,
I sent you an example spreadsheet. It shows you how you could implement LIFO. It is how I use it in my own spread sheets.
No use of macros, VB etc. Only basic excel.
If you have any questions, please ask.
Kind Regards, K
Hi All,
My China fund is diving with the following status:
AIM buy advice: buy 18% more shares
6MEA XDEV : -19%
First derivative 6MEA: -1.51
Second derivative 6MEA: <0
Aim´s buy advice is nice. The XDEV is still above -20% and I prefer a setting closer to -30%. The 1st DER is still too high, signalling a fast collapse.
I decide to hold for now and not start AIM buying yet. Anyway it is the middle of the month and not my regular buying time. Could also switch to quarterly frequency.
Kind Regards, K
Hi Hier
I think the process is something like this:
thinking: this is not good, this market is down and will move lower.
emotion: fear, more fear
loss of logic
Fear takes over thinking patterns and generates action which is not rational.
The above process is not unique to the markets, but is used in all situations.
Event+thinking gives emotion+reaction
The markets are just less forgiving
Regards,K
Hi AIM hier,
The nice thing is that you also get a 5.23 % dividend (today´s value) on ABN-AMRO.
The chart in euros is less flat as in dollars, so this stock is also a dollar-euro play. Actually the company is big in europe, usa and brasil.
Regards,K
Hi Razorbackfan,
To determine the slope of the 6MEA I just look at the Excel chart of the price vs time as a first visual approximation.
I also made a chart specifically for the slope:
(6MEA(this period) - 6MEA(last period)) / (6MEA(last period));
This function is plotted vs time, positive is above the x-axis, negative below.
This function also has a correlation with the bottom as determined by AIM and 6DEV. It shows the largest negative spikes at those very special buying opportunities. When the slope function is very negative and is changing trend (2nd derivative = 0) going upwards again, it is the real bottom for the price chart.
The 6DEV correlation with the slope correlation is really convincing, at least for the unstatistical amount of research I did.
Regards,K