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I won here in August. Thanks
Farooq
Nirvana,
Hourly chart projections suggest that, but we will go higher after retesting some points. Thanks for your kind words.
Farooq
They are trying to full fill your wishes.
Farooq
Thanks, Swing trading is less stressful, you are doing some thing good for your health.
Farooq
Be,
I think we do not have any violent drop in near future before trying to reach 41.51. It is just back and filling close below 40.35 today will signify that trend is changed. We are still in a corrective bull phase, Oh yeh we will go down ultimately. My gut feeling is OE will be around 40 and it very well could be 39.
Farooq
Pokersam,
Post to you was about what as a board we can do about timing and how we can improve it. That is all. I thought this board is about short term trading. We all have different views and that makes it a market.
I think I am not a good communicator. I am not worried about any bodies trading we all are grown up here and we all know how much loss we can afford.
I am sorry if you took it in different way, you are an honest person and honest trader I have no doubt about that. I admire your patience.
Thanks again for your kindness.
I am long 39 October puts.
Good luck to all.
Farooq
I agree with you on both points.
Farooq
Pokersam,
My friend you are betting your money for 3 weeks and 2 days, not for 2 years; is it ever happen? Yes. But probability is 90% against you. Do you do some thing every day where odds are 90 % against you? I am not saying it will not or could not drop; I am just saying it will drop from where you have not calculated it right. Take another look and buy puts that can make money. My post yesterday was not criticizing you, its message was why it did not work and what could you add to improve you odds in this game. Is this board is not about learning and improving our odds. I do not like personal attacks and I respect you and all others a lot. This is a great place to learn. E waves alone cannot give you exact numbers, for that you are paying $70,000 tuition and that was my point. Very few traders share their methods and you have a great heart for that. I hate when a great person like you and a trader like you lose.
Good luck to all.
Farooq
Pokersam,
What you will get even if you sell? Choice is not yours there is nothing left in your position, at least be honest with your self. Now what ever you will get it will be God blessing on you, so share it with some good cause.
When one is wrong the best thing is to say I was wrong, Just like I was wrong with you when I bought prematurely those OCT 39 Puts.
This is harsh but if we are not honest with our selves who will be, It is a gamble now, there is no logical reason to hold puts which are out of money and 7% away from where they can make even 10 Cents.
Honestly do you think market can drop 10 % that is where you will be able to recover your money and some????????
Sorry again but you really love your position and so many who are following you are in pain and agony. Have you ever thought that there may be some people who will follow me with real money and I am bringing unnecessary pain on them?
I feel that there fore I always mentioned my stops, because if I am wrong I do not want to lose my shirt also.
Hold now you might get some thing for useless puts.
Farooq
Great post, On QQQQ next target is 41.51 that can be achieved by Wednesday or Thursday and then we will start a decline, JMHOP.
Farooq
Pokersam, This time again you seem a bit early in taking position.
You can short any where but below 40.45 is better, Trading is could be, should be, would be, But if you make money that what counts most, Market does what it does best, plays with your emotions. If one is internally happy he is always a good trader, we bring our real life drama with us which stop us from success.
JMHOP
I have a free account so cannot reply PM, Send your PM address then I can e-mail you privately.
Farooq
I am not shorting here they are trying for 40.75, Wait for weakness.
I am long but I was short coming in covered on 39.75 and went long, I am willing to sell here more money could be made in 10 --12 trades then waiting for high, use stops.
Sold @ 40.48 no short yet, because of upward bias playing long only.
Thanks for PM mail.
I will be short if 40.35 taken out or 40.63 but I can do it earlier with out posting so please do your own D/D.
JMHOP
Farooq
Nirvana, Test and fail, Short stop would be 40.75 if shorted at 40.63
40.63
PS, Daboys never know exact top or bottom, with that huge position they cannot do it on top or bottom, Individual investors is a part of bottoming process. Mutual fund managers are not better then us except for one big loss I have beaten them every month, and that is the reason I manage my own money.
You are a great trader but you are still stuck and stagnant and soon it will become stinky, (Just a joke) Trading losses have already starting to do you the same what you are mentioning for others. My friend you are a very good day trader so keep on doing what you do best.
On argument of housing you are right about your view but it will take about 12 to 24 months before that scenario plays out. People do not buy with one or 2 months reserve they have 6 to 12 month reserves and then they use credit cards for 6 to 12 months, in mean while many will rent out if they are speculators, next year mortgage rate can be down 100 to 150 basis points so many will go on fix rate so that argument can not take us down but can affect seriously. After election oil can go to above 80 and that increase can force a melt down, but if we keep sliding you will see a great up ward movement.
JMHOP.
Farooq
I answered your question in a post to be, I am out of long @ 40.63, Market participant have started to distribute but they will take 2-4 days before meaning full decline, Big players always leave some on the table.
Farooq
They are trying to take it to 40.71, I am out on my short with a loss, and well if I wait I would have covered with profit. But that is draw back of stop loss. Since then made enough to cover loss; from long side and some. I will be out around 40.65 areas. No short yet, still holding my puts. Happy trading.
Farooq
I shorted @ 40.47 with stop @ 40.55, market seems tired here. Market participants are not ready to take stocks over night so now it has chance to fizzle, target is 39.85 -- 39.65.
Farooq
I am shorting now stop @ 40.55
Farooq
Things for bullish scenario
1- Taking out 40.55
2- not dipping below today's opening. Be care full out there.
Justa Werkenstiff,
Hello, I am expecting it to be "pretty sucky" too but over bought could stay over bought for long time. I think if we cross 40.55 and close above that number on QQQQ we can go another 100 points on NDX.
Farooq
Pokersam,
Thanks, I took it lightly. What happen to your day trading? You should consider that again.
Farooq
Thanks, I updated the post with numbers.
Pokersam,
That number is the number it need to cross and close above to full fill this scenario, Projection is actually 47.50 to 48.50 by April 2007.
Since I am so wrong so I will try not to post any numbers on this board.
By the way where we will be by April 2007? What is the opinion of the board?
Farooq
My projection was this for today and so far I am wrong by 2 cents.
Posted by: farooqIn reply to: 2X-Be-Me who wrote msg# 4680 Date:9/19/2006 4:44:11 PMPost # of 4777
40.52
Well I updated the numbers.
2X-Be-Me,
We are going higher in coming days, we all have bought too many puts; can not go down with this much put buying. I was wrong to buy puts so early. I am buying shares against the hedge and doing some bull spread. 6% drop is not common in a month; need to live in reality. Next seven days we will not see 39.55 or lower. JMHOP.
Farooq
Closed short leg @ 50 Cents profit. Will short if 40.55 not taken out.
Farooq
40.52
You wrote in following post,
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=13421596
They are Faine mea figures.
You are taking it differently; My personal example was to made a point. Only 3.4 millions houses sold last 2 years and 70 of those have mortgages and most of those people have sold their houses so impact of new mortgage is not so big, all the people in my circle have now lower mortgages and bigger houses. Most people who put 20 % down have fix mortgage.
I thank God for his blessing but I have lost in life my share, discussion here mean that your view is not only right view every coin has 2 sides.
Speculator like you and me make money others only watch.
38.04 my target, but will stop a bit above.
Your estimate for close is wrong again. We can test new high tomorrow, if taken out buy 10 Cents next stop is 42.
One estimate says only 30 % have mortgage, I am in 70%. 10 % people have bought and sold in this run I sold 2 and money is with me, made 300 % of original price I paid; so there is lot of money on side line. 15 % people got busted and they will be suffered again.
JMHOP
It is better then naked shorting. Your loss is limited and you will eat time decay.
Credit spread,
I did a bear spread on QQQQ, Long October 42 and short October 37, Net credit is 3.25. Max loss could be 175 per contract and max profit could be 325 per contract. Could be profitable if we drop only 50 cents and swing to negative if we go higher.
Farooq
Pokersam,
You and me we both are wrong market will not go down below 38.10 in this expiration, as of today’s analysis. Sorry for suggesting about your position, I would not do it again. My concern was only as a fellow trader who uses this board. Every body gets from the market what he wants.
Farooq
Covered QQQQ @ 40.00 now flat for shares still long 39 puts.
Day trade margin was used so need to close, turnout a great day.
Farooq
Yes so far seems like, short from 40.37 stop 40.45 hoping for 40.10.
Did you considered buying 41 and selling 38?
I went long about same number of shares in morning and sold @ 40.38 so net gain 25 cents, will trade shares against that hedge till trend change. We are too strong here for such an over bought situation.
I was hoping gas to come down @ 2.35 areas, yesterday I filled my car @ 1.98 / Gallon.
If interest rate stay here we can make new high on all indexes.
I am a very fast trader I adjust my position as market go so I have no convection, my views was that oil and stock market will be manipulated for elections so far it is correct; but my trading has nothing to do with my views. Historically market do not move more then 5 % in a month so we are in aberration mode now.
Trade care fully it is jungle out there they can eat you alive.
Buyer may have sold 39, 40 and 35 puts against that position.
The open interest on September never went up to 400,000, at least one day it should show, That famous trade was 200,000, Big position holder mostly do spreads.
So far 38 October puts will expire worth less, holders of 38 puts have 90 % chance to loose money. Even my 39 puts have very slim chance.
We are going to test 42, Closing on Friday was too strong and opening today was stronger. Simple fact is if we are not making money then we are wrong some where and this is very true for option that require to be correct on timing and price.
Thank you for the company, I was lonely being bearish from here, but let's not get carried away, I need to see closing for confirming signal, MM needs to close QQQQ below 40 today.
You have good entry. I might cover my short puts September 40, I hate to pay this commission.
Farooq
I think it is an adjustment of terrorist premium; it is not totally out but has been lowered. We are on our way to test new high in November December time frame.
These are mini bulls or corrections in a bear market of 2000, and we will keep climbing higher slowly, now question is could we go to Pokersam big down areas, answer is Yes on fundamental basis but we should be there one year ago. Because market is a discounting mechanism and it should foresee what is coming up. Market participant are looking a different picture, and by nature most participants are optimistic there fore we are usually 20% over value all times.
Here is twist, market can take Democratic victory as positive on basis of check and balance, same way they did in 1996 to 2000. These are just my random views against going down.
Farooq
So we reached here what we do now?
I think now we go down, but max down could be 37.18 if we closed above 40.55 we will test 42 areas on the chart, but I am 75% sure that from here we will go down. So fasten your seat belts.
I did sold puts on September 40 yesterday and I have no intention to cover them.
Pokersam you need to adjust your projection.
My view yesterday,
"I have a hunch we might try 40.35 before going back, no TA reasoning.
I might buy again @ 39.82 with stop of 39.65, earlier sold every thing @ 40.05 that was my logical target, Hold on put buying also. Do your own D/D.
Farooq
I have 100 Oct 39 series @ 0.55, which are down.
Pokersam, you should switch for 39 or 40 will make more sense now, JMHOP."