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That's why...
I smell news within 24 hours...
You might have a future as a stock analyst, however IMO a bit conservative in your estimates, lol.
Might be. However this in your opinion IMO anticipates that within the next two months the co.'s share price won't increase and thus that releasing interim data and publications will not do any good. Plus it IMO hints to the fact that the co. won't be able in the very short time ahead before ye to sign up a nice partnership with upfront payment, which IMO it remains vital. Without it I would agree with you thay a very huge dilution could come and therefore IMO current shareholders could more or less be whiped out.
I am glad that a lease contract brought to you such an incredible and sudden optimism. With the stock trading at 17 cents it is something very important to have. I believe your numbers for another loan based on the property or the lease are extremely high and out of reach. But besides it, I am much more focused on results right now.
The value of the building is already counted of in the balance sheet. Do you mean that it appreciated more than that merely for the lease? If yes, why? When you say that the value should jump enormously, what is 'enormously' in numbers?
Sorry Al4oor, the only thing I get from you message is that you haven't done any research but you believe it is a great thing because the area appreciated. Not too much to come up with a 15M possible refi, which as you admit is only a number without any behind research. I believe your numbers are out of reach at the moment and with the actual amount of mortgage left and debt secured by the property. Anyhow, the co. IMO should need money soon, so we will see. I still have some moderate feelings that they will come up with some meaningful news in the next few days. GL.
Usually for a commercial refi more like 60 to 70% in my opinion. It is however not clear how you obtained your 15M estimate. Want to discuss it further?
In my own estimates I believe around 3M. Let's see ex's pow.
EX, Chinatown, RKM, anyone?
Question for anyone: what are your thoughts about this video...from 19.15 to 19.25.
Will the third world war begin then?
A few notes on assumptions:
1) Cost of treatment: 150K. Given the recent pressures to lower drug prices in the US, plus the uneasy similar task in the EU and with NICE more or less on the same registry, I would go with a 5 year median cost of treatment of 100K.
2) I am ok with such a market share. Let us estimate a median of 30%, because my numbers would not differ much. However, IMO is very wrong to take those who are considered peak sales on potential market share and use a multiple on that without discounting them, as you should make the actual value of your numbers at the moment in which approval is granted. I believe a multiple of 4 or 5 would be good if there wasn't competition ahead, and it is IMO possibile, given the status of other current trials, that the drug could face stiff competition in 5 to 7 years from now (say 4 to 6 years after potential approval). This is why, not considering any of the other trials, I would take a lower multiple of 3.5 on discounted 5 years peak sales (I use a conservative 10% discount/year).
3) Your 300K cases seems not to consider subgroups, and it seems most likely that we will need to. I agree to use the PP stat of 15%, but I would estimate a number of cases/year as low as 150/200K, with a PP of 22,5 K to 30K. On that you apply the potential market share.
This is why I believe it too optimistic, not considering any of the other trials, to assign a potential MC of 5B on L approval alone. My numbers would be more in the range of 1.4B to 1.8B (around 2.7B not considering subgroups IMO). You divide that number for what you believe will be the O/S at the time of approval, and voilà.
Obviously this is all and only my personal opinion.
This all said, please consider that the chances of approval, in my opinion, as not as high, and by far, not as granted, as many people in this message board believe. Anyhow, all of these assumptions are useless right now, let's see results first, then back at modeling.
Yes, after watching the SFF December presentation one could have that feeling...
I wonder, was she glad about the development itself or about the fact that she thinks it works?
They didn't say when, did they? If I remember correctly from that 8K has already passed almost 1 month.
Not to allow to go BK is usualle easy: you just need to R/S and keep on issue shares.
There are tons of ways for a company to survive with investors out of the game.
People don't care about the share price? Good for them, they must have infinite money to invest, a situation that is usually very far from reality in the common world. If I was you I would start asking myself: how many of the people who write in this message board with such an endless optimism really hold shares?
Actually if you already know the results: bingo! No need to discuss it further.
I understand that you like real estate, but don't miss out the big picture. We are talking about efficacy of a drug or not. And we are waiting results for so long now, that IMO any day that goes by without knowing details of the main trial, it gets IMO harder and harder to recoup money from this investment. Where is interim blinded data???
Very obviously so, at least someone that is realistic in this MB.
Yes, correct, around 2.5$ per share IMO including and considering all warrants to be exercised.
However, do you realize that the majority of investors that write in a message board have zero skill in modeling a stock price? There are people in here that gave a 70$ potential stock price, lol, go figure.
Dreaming is free, so why not?
Personally I believe that if there isn't any news within 1 day, maximum at next tuesday, the stock price is IMO done, in my opinion a huge placement might arrive soon at a deep discount.
Great to know we are in the next Google...uhm...ok...
It seems like we finally agree on something.
I am glad you found your reasons for positiveness.
By taking a look at the stock price reaction it IMO seems that the market gives almost zero overall value to the deal.
In my opinion, which is not only mine, the fact that the lease is 5 years means nothing about a company's possible BK.
Not that I think it will go BK, but there's absolutely no linkage of the two elements at all.
I guess just another great day today!
Interim blinded data.
On Sept 22nd "While anticipating the disclosure of interim blinded data"
Almost a month has passed!!! I hope to receive news withing 2 days.
One question arises to me, if an 8k anticipates the disclosure of data and data isn't disclosed within a very short time thereafter, how much should I expect to wait for data which has not even been announced yet?
If true, interesting.
I kind of agree. If the FDA will find the trial to be soundly performed and with an OS benefit, IMO it should approve it.
Besides all this fantasies about how the FDA would react, it's time to show results!
Hello Al4door, there are a couple things I agree with your post, but even a couple things which, if you are familiar with finance, don't work exactly as you described. If I have time I will discuss them later on today.
One thing is for sure: if today the co. didn't need the property, it is a good idea to sell it (which I would have definitely preferred as it would have solved once for all the cash needs in the short to medium term), and a better idea than leaving the property unused, to rent/lease it.
The main problem that arises IMO and that doesn't help to see it as a positive thing is: why they don't need all of that space right now if just a few years ago they bought it? What changed right now that results are supposed to be so close to be announced?
No good to make any form of speculation now, investors will soon get to know some more. 48K s.f. are still a whole lot, but in my opinion it is possible they either overestimated the needed space a couple of years ago, or possibly underestimated now.
Finally, this time I was glad that the co. put out a P.R. which explained a little better the very short 8k. It is a time, considering the level the stock price has reached, in which investors need to know any possible information on anything going on.
Best of luck!
However the inclusion criteria were known when the FDA approved the trial, therefore if the endpoints beat SOC, there sould be no reason for not approving it, don't you think?
You going to buy 9,500 shares?
That's why the stock price surged today. Thank you, I couldn't find the reason elsewhere.
Definitely, IMO this sinergies should be accounted somehow in the balance sheet as goodwill.
You mean it is downsizing?