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Correct. JT and senior management should be all over this in conveying this to Wall Street. The silence is unreal. SMH
This is the Fish article referred to:
https://www.fr.com/files/uploads/attachments/Skinny_Labeling_Inducement_of_Patent_Infringement_Nov-Dec-2010.pdf
Marine indication population could be discerned by looking at past prescriptions right or even the population that has very high TGs...?
Generic volume / prescriptions exceeding this could be telling...
Can you post the link to the Fish & Richardson article? Thanks
Baker Brothers Address
Baker Brothers Investments
860 Washington Street, 3rd Floor
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How long before management / JT has a call with shareholders?
Days? Weeks?
robust. SMH.
so much for creating shareholder value.
Why is the stock price up on appeal loss?
We lost the case at the outset with the panel. The limited questions and aggressive questions at Singer reveal they had their minds made up.
They didn't even attempt to question the other side. SMH
Sometimes one is unlucky....we did not get the right panel.
Appeals are hard to win and even harder with the wrong panel. Too bad we didn't get Newman or O'Malley.
You should prepare for an affirm. The oral argument could not have gone any worse.
What's Thero's next move....?
It was always about the panel and now you see why. SMH
The judges make or break these cases.
Thanks North. And if they voted to hear it en banc would this be bullish / positive for us?
Right now we've got a standoff. If generics (Hikma) are at 2025 and AMRN is at 2029 (TEVA deal) both sides should presumably move off that on the eve of trial (Sept. 1st). The big reveal will be the panel on Sept. 2nd.
Do both sides really want to go trial? Is it in the best interest of both sides. One side will come out of Sept. 2nd feeling a lot better based on the panel and the questions.
Smarter heads should split the difference with a 2027 early entry or early 2028 and avoid trial.
Time will tell. Can only bluff and hold court for so long. Sept. 2nd is coming.
Nobody knows. The panel is the big unknown. Our fate rests with the panel. As much as we want certainty, there is no certainty here.
We will know more on Sept. 2nd.
Singer is a great lawyer and this case is right up his alley. That being said, it will come down to the panel of the judges. That's the reality we are facing.
One of my good friends is a patent attorney who has hired Singer. He indicated we have one of the best patent attorneys but he also said pray you get the right panel (meaning Judge Pauline Newman). We want her on the panel.
Wow $42 a share and just think many would have scoffed at this value per share post ADCOM / FDA approval if you told them the BO was for $42.
Sign of the times and where we are. SMH
It's unfortunate our general counsel and the high priced lawyers at Covington made that mistake. It cost us dearly. The Ninth Circuit for crying out loud. You can't make this stuff up.
It would be just our luck for JT to issue more shares as opposed to debt. SMH
I hope you're right and things start to get interesting "soon" as we are in Q3 and our stock price reads "not interesting" at the moment.
I know we have the patent trial as the overhang.....another roll of the dice event. The trial will come down to the panel. Let's hope we have the right judges this time.
We also have the Q2 call let's hope JT is a little more transparent this time about the plans going forward. Will they make a decision in Q3 on Europe as promised.
We are in Q3......let's hope it starts to get interesting soon.
It's time to create shareholder value and not destroy it.
AMRN has stepped up direct to consumer marketing significantly. Vascepa ads have been appearing approximately 10x a day on various networks.
Either the company does not have a problem building the market for generics upon an appeal loss or something is giving the company a lot of confidence to go this strong out the gate.
Recall on April 30th, the Company said it will wait on DTC ads until the outcome of the appeal. This is what JT said on April 30th:
"In particular, we intend to defer most or all of our planned television campaign because it is expensive and most of its value in providing education on the cardiovascular risk reduction effects of VASCEPA are likely not to be near-term. Such campaign will be readied for launch when and if we are successful in the appeal of the ANDA litigation assuming patients have resumed regular visits to their physicians by that time."
On June 1st AMRN reversed course. I wonder what changed in those 30 days.
Time will tell....but from the amount of times the ads are running it seems AMRN no longer has a concern about building the market for generics.
The ads are appearing and they are running quite a bit on TV.
Make that 9 times for Vascepa ads appearing today. Just saw it on Family Feud.
DTC ads--Amarin has done a great job of blanketing the TV with the new ad for Vascepa.
By my count it appeared 12 times on Friday on stations such as Lifetime, History Channel, BBC America, CBS Evening News, WGN, TNT, Fox & Friends, etc.
I've seen it at least 8 times just today on the History Channel, Law & Order, NCIS: New Orleans, WGN, ION, and BBC.
If folks are watching TV, they will see the new ad.
Curious what is your timeline for settlement. End of July ? By end of August? End of September? End of October?
If the parties are going for settlement with vacatur one would think they would be motivated to reach agreement sooner rather than later especially if AMRN has to relent on early entry. This way AMRN could maximize the time before early entry to drive revenue.
One would think right... but then again this is AMRN we are talking about.
Surely the parties know the main issues at stake by now.
Looks good. I'm still optimistic we settle the litigation.
It would have been nice for the company to let us know they were running the ad today and the time. We could have helped promote it on our social networks.
Excellent post! Hit the nail on the head!!
Who knows about Vascepa? What do the generics gain by winning the appeal?
You think the generics are going to spend money advertising? LOL
Thanks Marjac. So the question is how soon do the parties settle?
The issues at hand have been known for quite a while so what does Amarin really gain by waiting to settle especially if Amarin has to relent on early entry say in the back years of the patent life. One would think the earlier Amarin could get this litigation behind it the faster it can resume marketing, promotion, and maximizing revenue. Lawyers from both sides could draft / hammer out the terms fairly quickly.
A long way of saying if settlement is at hand....what is the point of dragging this thing out further and waiting till the day of the oral argument. How fast are we to see settlement here?
Great points!
I did not see the video/ad but this seems positive. Why announce April 30th you are halting the $80 mm of spend on promotion / ads until appeal plays out but then reverse on June 1 and say you are now resuming ad spend. Did that much really change in 30 days to make Amrn want to educate the marketplace on Vascepa.
Something is giving management confidence here. Perhaps settlement or some other favorable outcome.....
We shall see.
Bio--let's hope JT listens to you re: settlement. If JT and management did not fully appreciate the risk of litigation the first time, I imagine they have a greater appreciation for it this time around. To put it lightly.
Biobillionair - I hope you are right. I just don't want to count on Judge Du in terms of having to sign off on a vacatur. I don't trust her on doing the right thing.
Baker Brothers and other significant shareholders may say otherwise.Shareholders own the company. Not the other way around.
The parties won't know who the judges are till the day of actual oral arguments. That is too risky for conservative JT.
Ask yourself this? If this goes to trial and God forbid Amarin loses what do you think happens to JT? You think he keeps his job? This is not baseball and he will not be getting three strikes. No way JT remains CEO upon another loss.
Chris in a post alluded to this earlier which was spot on. JT stands to lose all his options that don't vest on an accelerated basis upon termination. In laymen's terms if he's fired: he loses a lot of options.
Most people act out of self-interest. Do you really think he rolls the dice and takes this to trial knowing he could lose a ton of options. Me thinks not.
This will be settled. Too much money on the line. Each side will "give" to get this over with.
Markman Advisors opinion of the generics brief:
https://www.markmanadvisors.com/blog/2020/6/23/amarin-what-does-the-generics-appellate-brief-say
From your wiki post:
One form of a vacatur in the United States legal system was established by United States v. Munsingwear, Inc. 340 U.S. 36 (1950), otherwise known as the Munsingwear vacatur. This approach is used when while a case is being held on appeal, whether at the Circuit Court or Supreme Court level, underlying factors make the case moot, then the higher court will vacate the lower court's ruling, send the case back to the lower court, and have them render the case moot.
Let's hope this case is not sent back down to Judge Du to get her sign off on a vacatur. SMH
No worries. :)
Why can't you tell us on here?
Do you still see settlement with vacatur as most likely path forward? What if generics don't want to settle? If that is the case, we are then left with uncertainty of judges heading into trial.
How does it help us if one party settles? And one refuses to settle?
Are we left praying for good judges?
Great post! I hope Amarin management realizes this!