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This is much more plausible. He very likely was looking to add at all time lows for the future and knew nothing of the EMA.
I was actually torn on the insider buying. In one way they put their money where their mouth is, while on the other it showed they weren't far enough along in negotiations to consider it insider trading. We've been waiting on a HOT deal for years now...
Call it whatever you'd like. Combine this news with the rhetoric at the top and the fact Pharma hasn't budged says plenty, IMO. It may very well work, in fact it does, but that doesn't mean anything if no one is willing to pay for it and Ken is looking to wind down funding. Can it not be considered a "dud" in the market?
LOL!
A reasonable 2% discount i'd say.
I agree with that. It has been a black hole for investors with countless setbacks and restarts over the last decade+. However, from all that came NEO and HOT which are cutting edge technology. There is something that came out of the ashes. I just can't stand to continue to throw good money at inferior/riskier products when you have better alternatives available. This company has continued to coax us along in the belief that AXAL is the real deal and a partnership is imminent. Filing the MAA was foolish given our limited resources. Many people have been duped. They waited far too long to get stuff going and failed to strike any meaningful deal while the iron was hot. It falls on them!
In the end, I suppose I'm just glad they're finally cutting the baggage as opposed to continuing the charade. AMGEN on board with NEO this early on shows it is the real deal. HOT's true value is still a mystery to me though. Hopefully we learn something soon.
Exactly!
The people at the top should never have been there. Reckless spending and enrichment. It's so sad the wasted capital and missed milestones. Had they realized the MAA filing was as risky as many people had surmised, they should have saved the cash on the filing and put it towards NEO/HOT and gotten the dosing started on time. We should be looking at early NEO results today had they stuck to their timeline. I blame the CEO's and the BOD for all this. Pathetic.
I'm glad AXAL is done for now though. Focus on where the return is. I don't see this news as all that bad. It just makes the bullish brigade look foolish with all their antics and beliefs over the last year. Lets hope for a partnership soon.
Unbelievable. This stock truly never ceases to amaze. I feel like I've been had. All this money blown and how did they never have the foresight to see this? The people that said this was a hail mary were vindicated.
Yes - human nature.
I can say mine is finally waning though. I'm not up for a dollar issuance. We have assets. Something can be done.
Problem is they don't have all summer. Still don't understand why they can't strike a deal. Massive damage has been done to the sh. price over the last 12-18 months as they looked aloof and burned big cash. No one has stepped up to protect it. No friends. A deal is almost a must now. They have assets. I'm still hoping ken has something for this month. This "hope" thing has been going on forever...
I agree with that. The approval PR would mean more anyways.
Agreed - but I've started to believe that they're not going to announce the filing at all. Especially if that's all there is to announce. Without a partner it seems like the PR would just fall on deaf ears. We shall see...
Now for us LTSH the filing announcement WOULD mean something as we've lived through far too many missed dates and milestones. We'd like to see more assurances that their timeline means something under Ken.
EXACTLY!!
I think back to when you mentioned at the ASM that you got the feeling ADXS wasn't as excited about AXAL as it used to be, while it worked, it wasn't the "hot" ticket item anymore. That SENTIMENT has played out to a tee with them potentially winding it down. If they're as bullish on HOT as they have been on NEO (which they seem to be), lets get an indication out TODAY! Save this company from another dilution.
Lets run this puppy up till NEO trial news can get announced and we get gobbled up. Come on, Ken.
Agree. They need to strike a deal with HOT for lung now! At least move that indication and make AMGN think twice about the rest of them. The question is how much can we get for one indication pre-clinical.
HOT has been discussed for years now - what are we waiting on?!
NTGN is just getting thrashed. Maybe they go down to an almost zero EV like ADXS... Wonder who has their number. Same people here.
Maybe we do need some more buyouts. Prove how depressed these valuations are.
All RSU's. Not purchased.
Yes - he did say this month was the timeframe for the HOT IND filing. The question is will they PR it? Even if it's only the filing, I would still think its a positive given the NTGN IPO.
Ken's statement about the CMO being the most important addition to understanding getting a drug from concept to clinical was mind blowing. What in the world was ADXS doing for 2 years without one? Makes me think they actually were trying to sell the company but things fell through. IDK anymore. It certainly seems very amateurish over there. Hopefully Ken gets us back on the map.
This company has just continued to act foolish and the shorts still see blood in the water. I dont think there's much else to it. I'm sure Ken is aware. The fixation on the short % shouldn't mean as much as some people here would want you to believe. Most public companies are shorted and you can make a lot of money off a shorted company as well. Problem is you need a capable management with a plan and not an abrupt firing, followed by an interim CEO, dilution at 2, and countless missed milestones. Oh well.
Something will change...
I agree, that's why I was curious if we should even expect one. If its just the IND filing, then I'm gonna assume we won't see a PR.
Are we expecting them to PR the HOT IND filing this week or could they skip? I'm no longer sure on anything anymore...
It's at each filing. It's assessed by management as well. They need to have at least a years worth of operating resources in order to remain a "going concern".
Won't we have going concern issues long before we get to 2019? How big of an issue that would be is still up for debate...
I truly hope DEW is correct on his guesswork that we may be getting a substantive milestone payment for first dosage.
I'd say we're due for an IND filing for HOT next week. The question is will there be anything partnership/cash related or not?
I'm still uncertain about the real value of HOT. I dont think anyone here truly knows. Also, how do we know AMGN even wants it? They already have our top dog with NEO which is a high margin, specialized, cutting edge treatment for cancer. People that may begin on HOT will eventually swap to NEO due to its specialization, so how much does AMGN really gain? Plus, NEO will only get cheaper over time as tech/science continues to develop, so NEO has to be the end game. We announced HOT years ago and still nothing. I hope we hear something soon as HOT will continue to burn cash until we find a suitor.
I do like the idea of PSA/HOT constructs licensed to Merck for prostate...
Amgen just tweeted this:
A Look Inside Amgen’s #Immunotherapy Arsenal: The goal of this species of bacteria is to help T cells recognize a range of tumor-associated antigens and attack cancer cells with the same antigens. Read more: https://t.co/RlKZz1kdok.#AmgenOnco #ImmunoOncology pic.twitter.com/xs7clEhFUm
— Amgen 🧪🔬🧬 (@Amgen) June 21, 2018
When is that and at what cost? They sold 20% not long ago, that's the conundrum.
I'd argue that both of those dates are irrelevant. Everything is always on the table and up for negotiation. Placing a date on it is indeterminant of any possible negotiations that could happened before said dates. Countless deals are done prior to announcing intent. Bottom line, IMO, if they weren't actively discussing potential partners or putting out feelers throughout AXAL's development then shame on them.
100% agree with this. I just can't seem to wrap my head around how we are trading around a 90 million mkt cap, there have been no deals, no offers (public or otherwise), basically zero leaks of anything. All this and now NEON is looking to go public with a mkt cap of around 500 million. People buying that IPO could have bought ADXS for 1/5 the value when we sold 20% for 20 million. Just mind boggling to me. IMO AMGN would have no problem justifying a cool billion to take over ADXS now.
How about the AH price action? One can dream..
I'd be all for the market re-evaluating ADXS post NEON IPO. I'm just not sure how much we'll move until the dilution issue is behind us. There has already been a few positive events since Ken has taken over and the price hasn't budged. But fingers are crossed.
Investors, founders, VC's etc. all have existing ownership (shares). NEON has already been through multiple rounds of funding at various valuations. These are additional shares being issued for the IPO, not the existing equity owners shares... Post IPO there should be roughly 28 million shares outstanding.
If the insiders knew a HOT deal was imminent, and/or another large positive material event, would they still have been allowed to purchase these shares? I'm curious if you can extrapolate anything from the timing of this (other than they just started) and how far along we may be with a licensing deal etc...
Wow. And Ken too. OK, let's goo.
Ah, gotcha. Completely agree with you on warrant extensions.
I do, but I think that's more human nature than anything. They think you gambled and loss, why should you be given a do-over and potentially dilute my shares further? People also (IMO) miss the bigger picture in that it's much needed money coming in to the company and not just another secondary. But its definitely interesting to think about...
Should note: if the share price is expected to be well above 5$ by the extended expiration date, then a secondary would net the company much more money than the warrants.
I was saying if he knew what was going to happen, 3 million bucks isn't a lot to toss this way. In addition, your original post intimated that with Edelman involved there will be no further dilution down here either, I just don't see that as of yet, sorry. Trust me, I'm hoping for the best, but staying grounded on possibilities makes everything else easier when it hits.
OK - 3 million bucks isn't exactly large if you already know what is going to happen, is it? But don't get me wrong, I'm definitely happy he's involved. It can only be viewed as a positive in my mind. Not a guarantee of success though.
They would have bought a heck of a lot more if they knew what was happening, assuming it was all positive. They spent a very small (relative) amount of money for a possible big gain, that's smart gambling. No one thinks ADXS is done for and most people here aren't major hedge funds that can weather another dilution either. It's never as cut and dry as you make it out to be, sorry.
See, this is where I just don't get it. Just sell uncovered calls then, at least you know what could happen. Naked shorting an illiquid warrant, that by your very own admission could be changed (and makes sense) by the company at will.
I must be missing something cause I see no reason to take that added risk...
Interesting. So we could see this overt "suppression" for a few more months, at least. And why would they do that over selling options or shorting the stock? A warrant can change by the company at anytime and be extended etc. I guess its slightly over my head. The idea is interesting nonetheless - i'll have to think more about it.
Who cares? The ransom has been paid. It has been months. There have been numerous catalysts for them to bounce off of, what gives? You think that maybe once ADXS closes an accretive deal (if/when) and the cash issue is answered, that the stock may start rising again? We need buyers! Is it at this point that you say the suppressive algo's have switched and the so called "ransom" has worked? Great NEO data would help too, but I think we can all agree that's too far away...
Ok - thank you. I don't assume it was either cheap nor easy for ADXS to get to this point, but I'm still uncertain on how much AMGN would truly offer on a first dose milestone. Sounds like all numbers are mostly just speculation.
Blue - what's your rationale for it being 15 - 20 million when most here believe it to be far less (5 - 10)? The lower figures are based on first dosing milestones from prior BP agreements. Other than what you purport as just being "optimistic" as opposed to "negative"... Anything concrete? Noelle said something maybe? You have a different comparable?