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DCVax could eventually be a treatment of choice for any malignant brain lesion.
She has her suspicions just like we do.
We only get once chance here. Extending the trial was a wise choice. No one has argued the company’s position that there is data to be gleaned from the tail.
It’s painful...yet necessary
Agree. Thanks forumreader.
Good catch Flipper. If not a mistake, it’s new information about the blended dataset.
I do wonder if the data is being hidden to deflect from detractors. Last year’s paper on interim data was announced in the June and then it took until the end of May 2018 to get it published. I would imagine they want to avoid another situation like that where everything was telegraphed ahead of time and speculation ran rampant. Best to do the work slowly and deliberately behind the scenes and surprise the market. Underpromise and overdeliver might be a good strategy with the history here.
Thoughts?
Agree. Brain surgery isn’t an assembly line. Unfortunately, health care administrators are trying to turn every position they can into high volume productivity.
$15-$20 billion is max buyout, depending on trial results and how effective this is. If and when we get approval, desperation should set in. Last thing BP would want is to compete against a successful DC Direct product.
Yes. They’re late in a P3 trial that had promising interim results published in May. Heavily diluted share count. Little cash. Unblinded results on primary and secondary endpoints expected very soon. Data could sink this biotech or send it to the stars. I recommend only the hardest of liquors for investors here. This investment takes nerves of steel and patience. Sometimes there is good information on this board, but most of it is talk around the poker table. We’re gambling here on results, but the flop and the turn look good. River card has yet to fall.
I think we’re looking at the same situation in different terms. I’m saying 1.95 billion is 2 billion minus 50 million. You’re basically saying 1.95 billion is 1.8 billion plus 150 million. Total cost of the acquisition is the same.
I never said that warrants were positive for existing shareholders. They add to share count after exercising. But they can be attractive to buyers, as they provide cash that can be used for financing. If NWBO could get above the average warrant exercise price, the company would generate cash that could be used for corporate purposes. Market price on NWBO hasn’t been above average warrant exercise price in years, leaving many warrants to expire worthless and the company cash deficient. All that changes in a buyout. A potential low offer buyout could actually be financed with existing warrant money as a down payment.
If warrants could be exercised cashless, they wouldn’t show up on a quarterly report as a liability to the company. They are a liability at the exercise price. Once exercised, the exercise price is paid to the company and the liability disappears from the books. The share count also increases.
Warrants that expire worthless also disappear from the company’s liability. But no cash is gained from these either.
They are cashback to the buyer, not the seller. The warrants have to be executed at a cost to the holder. That money goes directly to the buyer. If a buyer offers $2 billion for a company with 900 million shares and there are an additional 100 million warrants executable at .50, the buyer gets 50 million back in the form of cash after putting up $2 billion. All shareholders subsequently receive $2.
It’s an indirect form of cost saving to the buyer.
I call them cash back on a buyout.
It’s gonna be big.
If the price bounced up to $3-$4 a share, we’d see 300 million shares change hands.
Ya’ll are funny. He described 3 consecutive 100% gains.
100% or 1000%, it’s all just speculation until we find out the results of this trial. It could go up either. Let’s just sit back and wait for those results and the effect here.
Good math there.
Congrats Marzan. I’m sure some brokers will be happy to print up some phantom shares to sell to you today.
No doubt. I can only hope that the final product approval helps with recovery of thy value.
So true. Hold the line. The value of an investment doesn’t increase or decline until one sells. I believe in the science. I’m here until the doctor lady sings.
Hindsight is 20/20 and we’re all visionaries of history. It’s easy to judge LP after the fact.
Selfish, greedy forces are following this security and hoping to take it down. I hope Cofer has them in his crosshairs.
Temodar...written into GBM history?
As an addendum....let’s be thankful. If this trial had failed, we’d already know by now. Interim data would have indicated failure. Instead, the data was largely positive. We’ve been spoon fed that this trial is successful and this drug is headed for approval. NWBO remains independent and well held by retails, despite malicious, well funded forces working against it, trying to force bankruptcy or a distressed sale. Kudos to LP, although in hindsight, she probably should have raised more money when we were over $8 a share. But who could’ve guessed four years ago that we’d still be pressing for statistically significant long term survival data. Congratulations to GBM patients! They’re going to be the winners. Shame on the FDA. They should have a mechanism in place to get promising medications considered and approved based on stellar interim, blended data and save patients cost. How does the public feel about the FDA controlling access to medication and jacking up costs? Not good. See passed right to try legislation.
Where do we go from here? Carry forward. Lock and unblind. Continued silence is warranted in the face of adversaries. Let the data speak for itself. And once L is approved, it’s all over. DC Direct trials will be funded by revenue and more indications could be added with every successful trial. Big money will be falling all over themselves to get in on this technology, as they won’t be able to compete for decades.
GLTAL. GLTP. Happy weekend!
Our most famous hater is getting some hate. What goes around comes around...
Dr Liau and Dr Prins should be acknowledged also for the time and effort that they have put into working with radiology and pathology to identify new imaging methods to help distinguish progression from pseudo progression. The treatment here isn’t the only groundbreaking work being done.
I agree. PFS hasn’t been analyzed. None of the data has been analyzed because the trial is still blinded. Only with unblinding comes analysis. Just wait until LL gets her hands on the data and can report some outcomes. That’s when this will get very interesting.
Well said. I agree. Senti...best wishes to your family.
Why would preferreds or commons sell here before news? Sell pressure wont pick up until we’re back over .50
Study is nearing completion. Results will determine market capitalization moving forward. Just makes sense to have share count well defined when the offers start rolling in.
I’d be most surprised if there is a buyout before topline is announced.
I think it always was considered. Just because the preferreds have to convert doesn’t mean they intend to sell.
I agree...converting is a necessary precursor to a buyout.
My guess is that something big is coming. They want all their shares in a single common pool. No tiers. Maybe it’s an accountability action?
True story. We are facing a binary event soon. Unblinding and topline. Nothing really to write until data is released.
Positive data should create a significant squeeze. Big Pharma could get multi billion dollar interested with blowout data.
No. I believe she previously stated that she was not an investor.
Your insight here is appreciated and your work astounding. Thank you for your time
I believe your points all are validation of Dr. Liau’s overall implication that the longer this trial goes, the better the results will be. I believe process improvements, optimization, and insights continued to benefit patients as the trial proceeded. The question is whether the FDA viewed these as negative and confusing and implemented the hold to avoid additional optimization or changes. We’ll get more insight with final results.
Finally...good luck to investors, but more importantly, good luck to GBM patients. This vaccine still holds the promise of being a monster breakthrough technology in the fight against one of the worst cancers known to man. The scientific community is anxiously awaiting the study results. If this works on GBM, the next advance should be for it to work on all solid tumors.
So is this a suspected reason for the clinical hold? Vaccination improvements for the last 31 patients?
Such a great opportunity prior to final results.