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I’m not recommending buying either one. I wish both of them the best. I don’t like the fact that AVXL CEO worked for a failed brokerage and his credentials are not up to par like some other small bios. Don’t believe he can be taken seriously.
https://brokercheck.finra.org/individual/summary/5362491
Click on Misslings firms. Small brokerage that was expelled. Very small brokerage.
I trade now.
https://brokercheck.finra.org/individual/summary/5362491
Click on link and select firm. You will see it was expelled. Again very small firm and they were crooks.
Yeah AVXL CEO was working for Brimberg &co which was a small brokerage when they got expelled.
Birds of a feather.
https://www.google.com/search?q=brimberg%20%26%20co
Cleaned up "blog". Apologies to the author Original can be found at NTRP stocktwits fyi.
ALKON THE FALCON 2: THE BIG LONG
EDIT: Since mods in various subreddits keep removing this post for unknown reasons, I'll just upload this here instead and hope someone finds this
Aw no, not this guy again.
That's right, you better sit your buttcheeks down for this one, because I'm about to save your sorry self from this pathetic bear market.
Yes, the stock price has collapsed. Volume has collapsed. The company dang near ran out of cash and...
...it's about to make biotech executives explode.
Yeah, right.
Remember this scene from the Big Short?
In this scene, we see how our protagonists holding swaps should technically have huge profits due to all the collapsing CDOs, but since the big banks refuse to correctly value their swaps, they're still left with nothing.
If you take a look at Neurotrope, it's in a similar seat. The last trial (especially the ad-hoc analysis) showed results that have never been seen before in the history of Alzheimer's, and yet Big Pharma & media keep sweeping it under the rug and are instead focusing on literally every other biopharma out there.
The market doesn't give a rip about this company, and yet it's about to announce results in a couple of months that could cause several major players in the industry to mess their pants in collective terror as they realize that they dumped (and are still dumping) billions of dollars into the wrong Alzheimer's theory.
And not only is the biotech industry in denial, but there are also researchers out there being denied research funds for simply wanting to try a different approach to AD, rather than the same ole that the industry has been beating to death for decades.
Then again, why wouldn't they wanna keep this quiet?
Imagine how many researchers are going to lose their jobs once their boss finds out they're working on a drug that does jack squat (Just watch as Biogen's aducanumab trial drops dead in 2020 and their stock tanks).
That's why this is such a huge opportunity.
For those of you that aren't completely braindead and want to read the papers that prove this stuff works, here's the link:
https://justpaste.it/4frnd
If you are too stupid to read research articles you should at least read the abstracts, or even just the titles, and if you can't even do that you should honestly just kill yourself.
Now, treating AD is big news on its own, but that's not what makes this the greatest opportunity I have ever seen.
If you read the research papers, you can see that the drug works by repairing the wiring in the brain using a pathway that's already inside the brain.
In other words, this isn't some miracle cure that fixes everything through magic. It just activates the repair system we already have inside our brains.
And why is this relevant?
It's relevant because it possibly means that this isn't just an AD drug, but a drug for repairing brain damage in general.
The company isn't officially talking about all these indications yet, but if you take a look at their massive patent portfolio, you can see that they eventually want to use this thing to treat:
- Alzheimer's Disease
- Fragile X
- Niemann-Pick C
- Synaptic damage/Synaptic loss
- Stroke
- Mental retardation
- Autism
- Parkinson's Disease
- Dementia
- Parkinson's dementia
- Frontotemporal dementia
- Vascular dementia
- Depression
- Bipolar disorder
- Schizophrenia
- Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder
- Brain injury
- Traumatic brain injury
- Brain injury induced by irradiation
- Rett Syndrome
- Lewy body dementia
- Chronic traumatic encephalopathy
- Multiple Sclerosis
Oh, and did I mention that they have an exclusive license with the only entity in the world that can synthesize this drug? Meaning that no one else can treat neurological disorders with it?
That's impossible. You're stupid.
First of all, the FDA has already granted the company an Orphan Drug Designation for treating Fragile X.
Second of all, Dr. Alkon invented an AD test so accurate, it was given a Breakthrough Device Designation by the FDA.
And if you still don't believe me, read the papers and see the proof for yourself. They are all peer reviewed and published in highly respected scientific journals. This isn't some kiddie land we're talking about.
Just read the abstract of this paper about multiple sclerosis: https://www.scribd.com/document/386853846/Bryostatin-1-alleviates-experimental-multiple-sclerosis
Even some random scientists that have nothing to do with the company independently proved that this thing works for MS too.
Alright, so if this thing really works, why are you posting this now when the current trial won't finish until July?
Because once you hear about it in the news, it's already too late.
I was too slow with my last post, but since people misunderstood the results and ran away like a bunch of sissies I can now be early enough with a second post. That means you now have plenty of time to pick your nose and slap your nuts while you decide if this is worth your time or not.
Also, this time around there won't be any patients on Memantine to muck up the results like they did last time.
What's the deal with Memantine?
To keep it simple, Memantine blocks the NMDA receptor in your brain. Don't worry about what that is. The important part is that by doing so it blocks the effects of Bryostatin.
To show what an impact it had on patients, here's the results that were presented in 2017 with all patients included:
https://i.lensdump.com/i/AnbOrP.jpg
Kinda lame, right? Well here's what those same results look like when you separate the different patient groups:
https://i.lensdump.com/i/ABRMJD.png
If you don't like charts, here's the raw clinical trial data (Read the part that says "Post-hoc Outcome"):
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/results/NCT02431468?view=results
Look at how much the SIB scores improve once you remove patients on Memantine.
Wait, what is an SIB?
The SIB scale is a scale for moderate-severe AD patients that basically measures how retarded you are. The higher your score, the less retarded you are. The scale goes to 100 and once you hit max, you're no longer considered to have moderate-severe AD (I never studied neuroscience though so don't quote me on this).
Mild AD patients use the MMSE scale, but that's not relevant here since this was a trial for moderate-severe patients. The drug is however expected to work in patients with all stages of AD due to its MOA.
Here's a picture that hopefully makes the scales easier to understand and compare:
https://i.imgur.com/s61opUd.jpg
Patients in this trial started with SIB scores around 80, and patients in the 20 dose bryo group had a mean SIB change of +6.7 after 11 weeks of treatment and 30 days of just waiting around and watching patients improve even after dosing had stopped.
I don't know what you just wrote, but okay, the science seems solid. What about all these warrants though?
Like with most things that sound too good to be true, this too has a catch. In this case it's the ton of warrants.
If they're all exercised, they will bring in almost $100 million for the company, which should be more than enough to get their drug onto the market and start generating revenues, which means no more significant dilution since they don't need to raise more cash.
As of today, the fully diluted share count is at around 25 million, but let's raise it to 30 million instead just because.
Even with a potential 30 million outstanding shares, this thing is still incredibly undervalued. Here's why:
Back in July, Biogen & Eisai made an announcement that they had positive results for their AD trial. Soon after, investors added $20 billion to their market caps in total.
Yes, the results eventually turned out to be shit and the market cap gains disappeared soon after, but I want you to focus on how investors reacted to the positive news.
Now first of all, Biogen's drug was only expected to slow the decline of patients and not actually treat them.
Second of all, their drug was only meant to delay mild AD rather than treat brain damage in general, but hey, fuck it. Let's use $20 billion as our starting point anyways.
In that case, a successful trial would make Neurotrope worth AT LEAST $667 per share (20 billion divided by 30 million).
I'm not even gonna bother looking up how many people are affected by the neurodegenerative disorders I mentioned above, but if we stick to just Alzheimer's, we can safely assume at least 10 million people will be needing this drug every year to not fucking die. There's about 50 million people around the world living with dementia today, and about 300 million are suffering from depression, but whatever, let's continue.
Let's say the drug sells for $500/month and Neurotrope gets 30% from royalties. Actually, let's drop it to 20%. That's still $100 in profits per patient each month, or $1200 per year for each patient.
Multiply $1200/year by 10 million patients and you get a company generating $12 billion in yearly profits.
Slap a P/E ratio of 15 on top of that, and you have a company worth $180 billion, or about $6000 per share.
For reference, that would give you a 150,000% profit if you bought in at $4 (Right now it's trading at $3.73).
And since this stock is so thinly traded, this thing could move over 20% in a day.
So what's your point with all this?
As the wise Dr. Burry says in The Big Short: "I may have been early, but I'm not wrong."
What you're looking at here could very well be the mother of biotech black swans. A drug that not only treats Alzheimer's, but also repairs synapses and reverses cognitive decline.
Boys, I present to you the ultimate yolo you've all been waiting for:
THE BIG LONG
Report TOS
Bottom line anything can happen. Biogen has moved on.
An SEC investigation could come out regarding SP manipulation as a result of 8/9 planned purchase too.
It’s a $1.50 as of Monday. That’s what it is worth and it’s gone down since $3.60 and $5.89. Yes down and with $50m plus $14m for a total offering of $64M outstanding it can go down more.
Not successful if he is- every year 10k states -
We intend to identify and initiate discussions with potential commercial partners within the next 12 months.
No PR on a partner. He fails every year. He needs to be replaced.
Folks on the MB have seen communication from Biogen advertising the partnership. It was on Biogen website.
https://www.biogen-international.com/en/research-pipeline/corporate-collaborations.html
Here are the current collaborations. They no longer list Anavex.
Biogen stopped listing the collaboration as well. Biogen acknowledged collaboration and stopped but they acknowledge other ongoing collaborations.
If ongoing, CEO is as bad as some think he is. Collaborations are not done in secrecy hence the PR. Communications would state collaborations like MJFF or Rett.
Since it’s no longer in any communication deal is done. Period
Biogen is not interested. If MTA was ongoing, CM would have mentioned something in last 2 years as a potential collaborator, catalyst or something to enhance shareholder confidence.
Agree or disagree at will. That ship has sailed.
Swimming. Nice. Young in
Buy - by. My Faux Pas. Risk reward still too high.
Faux Pas -stating in December 2017 CC 3 trials may start by EOY. I was nice and said continued lapse. Some call him a flat out liar.
Was required paperwork even submitted to start trial buy EOY 2017? Doubt it to miss target by 6 plus months. Lapse was being kind.
The context is Alz. The reference is early signs of Alz not Retts or another CNS.
Signs- maybe, perhaps, probably, not likely, who knows.
Running a trial where folks might have Alz. They have SIGNS. It allows skeptics to have more fuel.
People lose confidence based upon these words. This board is the only place that gives passes for this continued lapse.
Note Signs of Early Alz not even diagnosed. As stated before GP can diagnose Alz in Australia. These folks with signs might not have Alz.
Say what you want but Signs are subjective.
stopped out at $1.25. Lost 2 cents today.
Transformational.
Put stop loss in for $1.25 for my 1 share.
I’m ahead of every person that bought anavex previously by having a smaller loss.
I added 1 share at 12:03 today.
355% dilution in 4 years. That will drop a company’s share price. The $50 million raise at $1.30 per share will add millions of shares.
But no debt right? Foolish to think someone is not paying.
We are what we consume. If we listen and watch only one channel we will have biases to what we are hearing. We justify any rational variance. It’s called GroupThink
Groupthink occurs when a group of well-intentioned people make irrational or non-optimal decisions that are spurred by the urge to conform or the discouragement of dissent. ... In the interest of making a decision that furthers their group cause, members may ignore any ethical or moral consequences.
No passes, current leadership has not developed enough credits to get a pass on the North America trial. Full transparency to investors should have outlined the exact country. They want us to guess and play games like we are 10. Good example of bad leadership. Thanks
LOL. Life is good.
You asked the question and mentioned that company not me.
I’m invested in both companies but I’ve sold thousands of my shares here. Down tens of thousands in both companies. I will consider risk reward of Anavex when we see how much dilution takes place VS stage or progression of CTs. A huge cloud is management. I don’t buy for one second the notion of our FDA not being contemporary enough to approve precision medicine. That’s hogwash. There’s a real concern for me until the FDA approves Alz trial. Others items are concerning as well that others outside of this MB agrees.
Leadership/management period.
Management matters- anavex has a history of over promising and under delivering. Market lost confidence in leadership. That’s the difference.
Here's the timeline per anavex website.
12/2008 said Ph1 should start in 2009.
8/2009 said ph1 should start in 2010
8/2010 said ph2a should start in 2011
4/11 Ph1 started and ended in 11/2011
8/2013 we expect to announce 1b and 2a within next several months
5/2014 upcoming 1b/2a with 40 patients and double blind ph2 with 300 patients
8/2014 announced start phase 2/3 in 2015.
12/2014 enrollment of first patient in 2a
12/2014 again stated preparation for phase 3 study in 2015
Got to $1.20’s pretty fast. Sorry folks, this is going one way and it’s not up.
We sold between $$2.80 and $3.10.
I’ve read every sticky in the past.
It’s not there. Pure conjecture
Link? Proof?
12/2008 said Ph1 should start in 2009.
8/2009 said ph1 should start in 2010
8/2010 said ph2a should start in 2011
4/11 Ph1 started and ended in 11/2011
8/2013 we expect to announce 1b and 2a within next several months
5/2014 upcoming 1b/2a with 40 patients and double blind ph2 with 300 patients
8/2014 announced start phase 2/3 in 2015.
12/2014 enrollment of first patient in 2a
12/2014 again stated preparation for phase 3 study in 2015.
All from anavex website. Ass you all know 3 trials were to start in 2017.
All of a sudden things are going to change? Pure silliness
A reminder.
Here's the timeline per anavex website.
12/2008 said Ph1 should start in 2009.
8/2009 said ph1 should start in 2010
8/2010 said ph2a should start in 2011
4/11 Ph1 started and ended in 11/2011
8/2013 we expect to announce 1b and 2a within next several months
5/2014 upcoming 1b/2a with 40 patients and double blind ph2 with 300 patients
8/2014 announced start phase 2/3 in 2015.
12/2014 enrollment of first patient in 2a
12/2014 again stated preparation for phase 3 study in 2015.