2021 and still haven't started my 100 bagger move (Spectra7 SEV, Lightwave Logic LWLG)
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Great to have you with us Tom! We need a younger group of investors making waves.
Diner with Lebby 08/09/22
I just got up on a Saturday morning. Thinking about LWLG while I sit still at my table drinking my coffee. My wife is working her butt off at the airport and I'm joking
about being an underperformer at work, online. Damn that coffee is good. I want more.
Reflecting back on our dinner with Michael Lebby and what always stands out is what a wonderful person he is. Never is there any tension in the air or something 'off'
that I would say afterwards to Walter "did you see that?" or something like that. I even thought about it that I may be too forgiven when it comes down to Michael. But no, he is just really good and humble. But also the people at the table, some new faces, some less new, always a pleasure meeting all of you. And younger people as well are coming on board. New in LWLG and enthusiastic! Love it!
Lebby has qualities were Buffet speaks about. If you have people acting like crazies, avoid them. But if you can find brilliant people, be grateful to be around them. Invest with them.
At the table Luc Jansen said sorry Michael to interrupt you but your Queen just died. Michael was really shocked that it happened so quickly. He knew she wasn't good but still it came as a surprise. Not long after the news
, I was sitting on his left, his phone didn't stop ringing and lots of messages pop-up. I tried in a very sneaky way to look on his phone to see if there were names I could recognize from the industry.
But no such luck, my eyes are failing, I even had to ask Michael to read me something on the menu. I suck as a spy.
ML told us also that his uncle used to work for the royal family as a photographer. He worked a lot with (now) King Charles III. His uncle said that he is a great guy,"Charley" Lebby smiled.
Back to LWLG, we already said here the timelines are intact and the material is advanced enough, it doesn't need to get any better (but it will over time) to keep us out of the foundries. Any concerns about the material is just like how OLED's were in the beginning. "Now we don't second guess OLED's anymore". "They are in our phones" while lifting his Iphone. "OLED's are everywhere".
ML said in his example companies like Global Foundries, TMSC, Tower, etc (yes he named them) wants to run a lot of wavers. They don't care what is on it. As long as it sells, they will produce it.
I brought up the display company ML told us about more than 2 years ago in the ASM. "Want to be a partner?" I asked him if that was still ongoing...
He answered it by saying if the foundries call us up that they have a client who wants to produce a display with our tech inside, it sure is a possibility.
During our dinner I didn't really realize it but I understood it better now. In short, the foundries get calls from companies who want a certain chip (could be anything) and they in turn call LWLG
to work something out. I understand something like that happens only if you have a PDK with them. If ML says he wants polymers everywhere, well that foundry co-operation/partnership is a really great one.
"Someone from IMEC approached me," ML said, "that was really a smart move to work with foundries that way." ML really smiles after saying that. To get this kind of feedback from third parties that your business model is shaped that way is indeed really great to hear. "Foundries are expensive" ML grinded to the IMEC crowd. They chuckled, he said. But it's still cheaper to build your own fab. "That's why I showed us on the Nasdaq," ML said about the technical IMEC crowd "showing them we have the resources to pay for those expensive foundries"
RKLY chooses another route "if you build it they will come". "Doing everything yourself costs a lot of money (you don't really have) and it's not sure they will come". ML knew about the crashed share price of Rockley and their high burn-rate.
We compared burn-rates between the companies. Let's say the man opened my eyes again. Sigh (I'm down on that stock, -85%)
The Semi Bill from congress, ML was really clear, 52B is just one fab. It will be important to continue these efforts in order to stay on the lead.On chip shortage he said to expect an over-abundance.
On GF: I said to ML remember that video with Anthony Yu, you both appeared in, that Yu said in that same video GF is willing to press 'the reset' button when it comes down to photonics. He said: "Anthony yes, Tony"
(talking very familiar about his name, like a friend) Just before ML was saying big fabs don't really move quickly to migrate to newer technologies (photonics industry)
The volume foundries (Imec is a foundry but more R&D oriented) like GF, TMSC etc, are pretty conservative, imo despite what
they say online. The fact we have 5 signed up foundries and 2 in the pipeline shows the ambition of Lebby/LWLG to be Ubiquitous (or for Walter-> Everywhere )
What else did we talk about? Oh active copper cables! He slammed quickly my hopes I had another great investment by saying it's "the end" for copper in DC's. I stumble to say "yes, but not tomorrow. A few more years, no?"
Continue making my argument ( to save my investment in copper cable's) that DC's are slow to adjust to new technologies; So we agreed I still got 4 or 5 good years ahead. Phew.
He knew ex CEO Tony Stelliga very well from the 90's (Intel days), the CEO who died of a heart-attack during the early years of Spectra7. He said the man was really sharp and good. Suddenly my cable investment looked better.
That's about it guys. Hope you enjoy my write-up.
Steve
Some things in live are better not average. And with stocks it shows. Looking forward already for contest nr 17.
I fear you are right Ned.
The mighty koog. Let’s say the are working hard to get that PDK finalized? It’s a team effort. The foundry that does the best job, Wins. John Zyskind is overseeing progress.
For now no delays.
Sorry board but I had a really busy day today at my job. I'm pretty beat.
Yesterday, all was good. I understand Walter already posted some info. I don't have much to add except to be very patient. Lebby is da man! Those foundries wants to run as many wafer as they can. They don't care what's on it. If it's fast and low power, they will sell it.
Just wait and enjoy life a bit while you getting richer.
Love our little company!
Still sitting on a goldmine!!
Thx yp. You should have posted right away. Good news
Let’s not could on having S7 in Nreal. Fact that I don’t get anything back from Bonnie and Raouf says enough
No im not. And very lazy. Underperformer @work
Great Proto. Didn’t see that
And on Twitter
Hello iPhone...did we just become best friends? 😏#Nreal #AppleEvent https://t.co/IX0eTTtTIW pic.twitter.com/Lwtb8JdqJh
— XREAL 👓 (@XREAL_Global) September 7, 2022
Maybe, let’s just wait and see. At best the nreal works with iphone
Check Nreal LinkedIn message about Apple
Fyi,
Just some observations after having some results back from searching the internet for Active copper Cable.
One cable provider calls AEC as Re-timer and Redriver. A bit confusing, imo
A re-driver-based AEC uses a simpler signal amplification to boost the signal power to extend the reach of the signals and can support a reach of 5-7m with 30 AWG copper cables
https://vitextech.com/active-electrical-cable-copper-cable-option-for-data-centers/#
What can NVNT as a shell company offer here? Universal Robotics is a private Danish company. If they would be interested in a listing, would it make sense to use NVNT? What’s the difference between a SPAC and a dormant OTC stock?
Hey Spartex, I would love that. Set up a division "Photonic Foundries" through IMEC. And gently move away from silicon. Reset the whole thing!
I'm at the table soon and I'm gonna ask.
Great consistent work from Lewrock. Check out the data below. Thanks Lewrock!
30 June: Most accurate 13-F
Comment:
B. Riley is the only institution that has failed to update their holdings as of 6/30/2022.
I will maintain this spreadsheet on a quarterly basis going forward for the next several years.
Great post Jeunke. As a note, the ownership analysis I posted was the work of another investor.
That’s what I think too Future. Patients is what you need in this stock. Some say ‘dead money’, i say ‘waiting your turn’
Asking about AECs competitors
Trevor Janoskie -- Needham and Company -- Analyst
Yeah. Hi. This is Trevor on for Quinn Bolton, and thanks for taking my question. I'm wondering, have you seen any competitors begin designing solutions that could compete with your AEC opportunities at the first and second hyperscale customers? Or do you see Credo as the sole supplier through fiscal '24?
Bill Brennan -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Good question. And so for sure, we've seen competitors beginning to make investments in this space. And I think that's a great indicator that at an end customer perspective that it's of high priority, and that's why anybody would start investing in a new business, really based on customer driven demand. We haven't really seen competitors begin to deliver products that we would see in the field.
But we know that there are several companies that are making large investments. So we feel comfortable with where we are competitively. And I think that as it relates to the first couple of ramps that we'll go through, we never take anything for granted. I'm never going to say that our customer base is comfortable with a single supplier, just like we would be uncomfortable in that same situation.
Unknown speaker
[Inaudible] on behalf of Matt. Thanks for taking my question and congrats on the results. I wanted to ask about your data center exposure. There have been some well-documented delays in CPU upgrade cycles that have IO upgrades to DDR5.
Is there any line that we should be drawing between your exposure and upgrade your customers to the CPU upgrades? Or is it sort of irrelevant at this standpoint?
Bill Brennan -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Good question. I would say for the first customer that we've ramped with and that we continue to ramp with, there's really nothing on that front. These are our mix with 25 gig per lane connectivity. As we look at the next generation, there's a series of upgrades that will from a connectivity standpoint is really the way we view it.
They'll be moving to lanes of 50 gig per lane and then lanes of 100-gig per lane. And so we're not going to ship AECs until these new NICs and servers are shipping. And so there is some dependence there. And that's why we can't be too specific with the timing of the ramp.
There is some dependence on NICs before AECs can start shipping. This is our problem too, imo
Exactly!
Thanks Future. Im not sure what to think how it’s cut between PSPRVR2 and DC.
Im ok with 11M this year.
About the 6 designin in production. Do you think this is from 1 DC or more?
Some here really need to focus on what they want. You can always sell. You have always a choose. Keep a friendly mindset in hard conditions (if that's how you feel).
Whatever we write here doesn't effect the outcome.
I believe revenues will grow fast over the years. It doesn't matter (for me) that the shareprice is down 95% at this time. I'm at -50%. I made a killing in another stock. So my situation may differ from yours.
S7 is cheap, not without problems (margins are down). But the revenues are following a trend (more VR based at this time, which isn't what I want to see)
I hope DC's are starting converting design-in into design-wins.
That why Credo is important here. We can compare, revenues, margins, TAM's
Give it 1 year, but could take longer. Meanwhile I hold.
Why Spectra7?
Highly differentiated solution in fast growing market
* Focused on the high-growth hyperscale data center market in
excess of $3 billion by 2026*
* Fills a critical connectivity gap with a unique, high-speed, lowpower solution
Significant operating cost savings for customers
Large and growing number of design-ins
* 105 data center design-ins, most with major global hyperscale
data center operators
* 6 data center design-ins in production
* 1 AR/VR design-win in production for global top game console
manufacturer
Rapidly scaling revenue
* 2022 customer orders in excess of $14 million to-date
* Anticipate 2022 revenue to approximately double over 2021
* Highly scalable, lean operating platform
H2 2022 Revenue Guide:
$4.6 to $6.0 million, Up >26% Y-o-Y
Focused on the high-growth hyperscale data center market in
excess of $3 billion by 2026*
Source: 650Group 6/3/2022
TAM is growing. That's 4 year from now.
Proto, the shareprice will do what it has to do. I don’t care much for the short term.
Im holding. And wait for chips supply to be solved.
My friend wanted to buy a Porsche. He was told to wait 36 months for delivery. That’s just crazy. All because of chips
We don’t have to agree
Q after Q building their stack. Just how i thought it would be. Looking forward to see the announce Q2 in 2023. The trend is your friend.
Instant post about IMEC.
Watching now.
Great post X. Thanks!
Think1st, I don't do 'picks of the year'. I invest in a company for at least 5 years. Usually it takes longer. So I hope in my 5th year they will start doubling sales.
Sales has been up. If they announce Q2 this week, we will know what the status is.
LWLG for 13.5 years and no gain for me. Then 'suddenly' everything changes...
Be patient
Thanks for the summary on your thoughts NBRTNS. It's all about the people working there and being invested themselves. I forgot a bit about Roger Maggs. I do like experience in a company, I don't see it as old age. I check the staff numbers of S7 on linkedin. Not many changes, so that good to me. I agree on Bonnie. Don't forget about Mike Fukatsu.
Promoting your technology is a tricky thing to do. I'm not sure if it's necessary. It can give a false impression for shareholders, all is fine when it's not. The designwins does all the talking for me.
It's oké to feel uncomfortable at time. But doing this for many year, I have set aside a lot of emotions when doing a trade. I have a mindset to loose it all, in order to win it all. It sounds like gambling but it's not. I'm just not aiming for average. With Lightwave I had the perfect training. If the stockmarket would close for a year, I would still keep my shares in S7. Been able to wait longer then most, is a superpower, imo.
Company:
There is money in the bank.
The CEO/BOD are big investors and still talk to shareholders when being called on.
The TAM very large.
The staff is still there and adding.
Competition is growing.
Sales are growing.
The cheap shareprice is emotion and may not represent it's value.
I think you all are panicking for the wrong reasons. Making a good quality ACC is hard. The CEO will be solved. The TAM is big enough, to either get a decent marketshare or to get acquired.
Just wait
Im hoping for good timing here when to buy. So i wait a bit more for now
Proto, I don't think this is easy tech. Making a redriver chip and put it in a cable. And making it durable and reliable. S7 is a pro when it comes down to ACC's.
I assure you the company knows this. The board is invested