Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
LikeMoney - Yep! I went through the same thing! All the Long-Longs were calling me names for looking at what could go wrong with Aurora.
But the Long-Longs are in LOVE with Aurora and you can't speak a bad word about a stock someone is in LOVE with.
Trend, you, and I have been saying the same things. But LOVE is blind so they will not listen.
ACB closed at $1.98 yesterday and the Long-Longs say this is another "Buying Opportunity" - even though Jefferies downgraded them yesterday. I just know that when you completely ignore the downgrades (Merrill Lynch, Jefferies, etc) - bad things happen.
I fully understand the "Forward Looking Statements" disclaimers in the Financial Statements.
However, there is a big difference between what is written in the Financial Statements and what Cam was doing on National TV (MSNBC, etc).
Did you read the Forward Looking Disclainers on Cam's TV Interviews and all the comments that were made OUTSIDE the Financial Statements (you didn't because there are none).
In fact, I bet most of the ACB Bagholders have never even read a ACB 10K or 10Q - instead they rely on TV Interviews and YouTube Videos of Cam "pumping" Aurora.
Just type "Cam Aurora Cannabis" into YouTube and watch what he is saying.
I like the one where Cam is saying the National Liquor Store Partnership will enable Aurora to sell across Canada. I guess someone never told Cam about Health Canada's Plans.
I just remember when Cam was broadcasting that ACB would be EBITDA positive 2 Quarters ago and that the other 2 Sky Class Facilities would be funded completely by Positive Cash Flows and that no other Dilution would be required. Also, Cam also lead investors to believe that the sales into the 25 countries would be substantial.
If an investor invested on the CCO's pump - then the lawsuits do have some merit.
But if you don't remember Cam broadcasting these things - I can find them on the internet and send them to you to refresh your memory.
The Attorneys probably instructed Terry to buy shares in his own Company to keep him out of jail (so he can claim he lost money too) and Cam has been banished to Australia (a former Penal Colony).
Yep. Cam was a great Used Car Salesman.
He shamelessly pumped ACB from every angle possible - and now he is no longer COO.
Those YouTube videos of Cam touting how great ACB was will probably be used in Court as evidence in the Shareholder Lawsuits.
But I hope Cam doesn't drown. It is too difficult to sue a drowned person.
Okay. What did you mean when you said "you're a confused little mousy"?
I am anything but confused.
You're right, I don't know when you bought. But I hope it was for less than $1.98/share. If you did, you still have some time to sell for a gain.
GLTA!
Another downgrade today. Jefferies is saying at $1.98/share - ACB is no longer a Buy.
Jefferies bails on Aurora Cannabis
Dec. 24, 2019 7:56 AM ETAurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB)By: Stephen Alpher, SA News Editor56 Comments
Jefferies downgrades Aurora Cannabis (ACB) to Hold from Buy following yesterday's departure of the company's chief corporate officer.
Shares were down 10.7% yesterday in wake of the news. They're ahead 2% in premarket action this morning.
Previously: Aurora Chief Corporate Officer steps down (Dec. 23)
An Analyst has published a detailed report explaining how ACB Shares are "Worthless". As such, Under $1/share could happen.
Here is the link:
https://stocknews.com/news/acb-could-shares-of-aurora-cannabis-be-worthless/
If the Long-Longs are disputing this analysis - please don't argue with me. Please contact the Analyst who wrote the report instead.
This "little mousy" sold at $10/share.
It just makes me laugh how the Long-Longs like to call people names when they have been nothing but WRONG.
If you want to call me a name - then "Right" or "Correct" will be a lot more accurate.
Red and Green are the colors or Christmas. I have the green covered. And I bet you have the color RED everywhere this holiday season.
Cam left you (and the rest of the Long-Longs) with a nice $1.98 Christmas Present.
Heck, I think ACB was trading at more than $1.98 before they even finished Aurora Sky. But I guess that is all that dilution the analyst were talking about.
But don't worry - Nelson will put the deal together soon. Just another buying opportunity for you to average down some more.
The Attorneys will sort out Cam's "Conscience" for him.
How many Shareholder Lawsuits is
ACB currently facing? I lost track at 5 or so.
But I used to think Cam was an idiot. But quitting ACB was a smart move on his part. Smart Rats get off the ship before it sinks.
Hiding? Did I say the word "hiding" in my post?
I said the TIMING of Cam's departure was interesting.
But all too often long-longs misinterprete my straight forward posts.
I am not trying to "steal" your shares on the cheap (and no one else is either).
Shares of ACB are cheap because there are over a billion shares out there. "Value" usually implies scarcity. If a billion diamonds hit the market at once - diamonds will be worth $2 also.
Uh. Are the markets open on Thursday and Friday of this week also? Plenty of trading days left before January 1st rolls around...
Yep. But the only problem is: The Tax Loss Selling has been going on since March. Just look at the graph. See any trends?
I love it how ACB TIMES their bad news. Cam resigned during the holidays when a lot of investors are on vacation. The timing of this is not a coincidence.
I am a Cubs Fan.
But I used to bet AGAINST the Cubs all the time (depending on who they were playing).
This sounds contradictory.
However, there is a big difference between what I WANT to happen and what I THINK will happen.
I WANT the Cubs to win every game.
BUT when there is a good pitching or hitting mismatch and the odds are right - I bet $$$$ on the team I think has the best chance of winning.
So I bet with my brain and not my heart. I find it a lot easier to SELL that way. If I am "in love" with a stock - I never buy it - because I know I will hold onto it for the wrong reasons.
But this is just how I do things (it works for me).
Slim! You got it right!
I am here to make money (#1 Goal) and I really can be long ACB in the morning and short it in the afternoon (so I have more of a "Trading" Mentality than a Long-Term "Investing" Mentality).
This "Trading" Mentality might seem wishy-washy to the "Set It and Forget It" Long-Longs.
That said, I am not going to short ACB at $2.21 a share. The Shorts already picked ACB clean and there just isn't a lot of "meat on the bone" left. The real meat was that downward move from $10 - $2.21.
But I am not taking a long position in ACB either. Just because a stock is trading at a historically "cheap" price does not mean that it will increase in value anytime soon. "Cheap" Stocks are usually cheap for a good reason.
So I'll just wait until a "Game Changer" Catalyst comes along and then I'll take a long position in ACB when I think there is MONEY $$$ to be made.
But please, please, please - take all my posts with a grain of salt. I type these while looking at 3 screens and I just say what I am thinking at the time. So they take about 30 seconds to write.
I'm neither positive nor negative. I really don't think in those terms.
I just try to figure out what DIRECTION a stock is most likely to go.
Then after I determine the likely direction, I then figure-out how certain I think I am, analyze the risks, and then determine how much capital to deploy.
I try to keep my positions on a short leash (stop loss) to avoid any major downsides and I use puts sometimes to insure gains that I am sitting on.
I hope the best for ACB and it's shareholders, but right now, I have no idea which direction ACB is going to go. As such, I am just keeping my powder dry and waiting for a good opportunity to make some $$$.
Exactly!! Those shorties that shorted ACB at $10/Share are gonna be in BIG TROUBLE!!
Just wait until ACB starts selling Candy Bars and Gummy Bears (along with Canopy, Tilray, Hexo and the rest of the Canadian Cannabis Companies).
ACB's Chart is a Screaming Buy?
Is ACB's Chart a screaming buy because it is trading at $2 a share and change?
Or was ACB's Chart a "Screaming Buy" at $9, $8, $7, $6, $5, $4, and $3 also?
I am just trying to understand what you are seeing in ACB's Chart that Trend and ClayTrader are not seeing.
This could be a Bullish Sign for the Cannabis Sector...we'll see...
https://www.barrons.com/articles/marijuana-stock-short-sellers-cover-sector-rally-cannabis-51576701725
I've been "Bottom Feeding" on MMNFF and EVIO and it seems to be working.
So my point is: ACB could certainly pop double-digits also.
But ACB really needs a great catalyst to get it moving in the other direction.
ACB needs a "Game Changer" Event or Announcement.
"Game Changers" are Game Changers!
Terry Booth just needs to be paid the same way Nelson is being paid.
Stock Options with a $7.75 Strike Price.
Yep. I agree.
There is an old saying on Wall Street.
The saying is: "Sell in May - And go Away".
So we could see a run-up in the good Cannabis Stocks in Q1 2020 (like it did last year) - followed by heavy selling in April and May.
But who knows. It is anyone's guess.
But Patterns, Trends, and Momentum, all do exist and they should be analyzed and used to make money.
Yep. I've been trying to talk since into the Long-Longs since ACB was trading at $10 - but to no avail.
But they aren't Dweebs. They are just trying to get it right and make money off this emerging Industry like the rest of us.
ACB could be trading at $20 right now (like Canopy). BUT ACB's Management chose to dilute it's shareholders instead of doing a BIG DEAL (when BIG DEALS were happening).
So ACB's Management missed the boat on that one and their stock paid the price.
There is a reason why Canopy is at $20 and ACB is at $2. That reason is: ACB's Management. They are Control Freaks that don't care about Shareholder Value.
Management that dilutes its shareholders do not care about Shareholder Value. It is that simple. Nothing kills a stock more than constant dilution.
It is like a 3rd World Country that constantly prints currency - eventually that currency becomes worthless because there is so much of it in circulation.
I think we've heard the "Buying Like Crazy" and "Load The Truck" and "Buying Opportunity" chants way too often.
Exactly. PLEASE DON'T LISTEN. I like it when your screen is RED.
That Analysts with the ZERO PRICE TARGET might not be wrong.
If so, then ACB is currently overpriced by $2.20 a share.
The problem is: The Long-Longs have been saying the same things when ACB was at $9, $8, $7, $6, $5, $4, $3, and now $2.
I mean, if you have been Averaging down since $8/share - sooner or later you are just going to run out of money.
Averaging Down only works if a stock eventually goes UP again. And I'm not seeing any signs of ACB going up anytime soon.
But hey, Nelson is still out there working on deals. So at least ACB Shareholders have that going for them.
Uh...The DOW is at 27,279 today. There is not "Blood in the Streets".
There was "Blood in the Streets" in 2008 during the Financial Collapse when the DOW was at 8,000. That was when all of the "Great Companies" were on sale.
But I don't think the "Blood in the Streets" mantra applies to a single stock like ACB.
ACB is trading at $2.22 today because that is what it is worth today with the DOW at 27,279.
But I wonder how much ACB will be trading at WHEN the DOW (and overall Stock Market) declines?
Yep. I posted about the "Indian Reservation Opportunity" about 8 months ago.
MSNBC did a special on Cannabis and the Indian Reservations are really cashing in on Cannabis Cultivation because Indian Reservations are not required to pay Federal Taxes and they do not have to follow all Federal Laws.
The Indian Reservations used to make their living off of Cigarette Sales - but now that Cigarette Smoking is down - they are making their money off of Cannabis Grows.
I think the Indians supply the Las Vegas Cannabis Market.
But the Indians partner with Professional Grow Companies so the product is top shelf.
I totally agree. There could be "Game Changing" News on ACB at anytime.
"Game Changing" News means: The stock will sky rocket (at least for a short while).
However, I am not buying a single share until that news is announced (or at least a very credible rumor).
Here are some News Articles on ACB today...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analyst-aurora-cannabis-acb-stock-113835427.html
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/12/17/whats-behind-aurora-cannabis-2-million-embarrassme.aspx
https://investorplace.com/2019/12/aurora-cannabis-will-survive-but-its-still-a-poor-investment/
Thank you for letting me know what my next steps will be.
Speaking of IGNORING things - the Long-Longs seem to ignore "little warning signs" like Analyst Downgrades.
Actually, I've seen almost every Downgrade dismissed as BS by this board.
For example: Just today, an analysts came-out with a ZERO PRICE TARGET for ACB and that analyst was quickly dismissed as incompetent.
Does anyone happen to know what price ACB was trading at when the Merrill Lynch Downgrade came-out? Was it $7 or $6 a share?
I am not going to debate a Long-Long and you can dismiss me all you want.
All I know is - my screen is not RED with ACB.
Uh, if you haven't noticed, I've been negative on ACB since I sold in March.
My negativity has not been without merit however. I can recite the dilution, missing ER Estimates, $3 Billion of Goodwill, etc again if you want.
What you fail to realize is:
1) New Information does become available. And I am allowed to change my thesis as new information (especially "game changing" information) becomes available.
For Example: If ACB's Sales are declining because of the Slow Roll-Out, and then Health Canada announces a FASTER Roll-Out - then that could be a "game changing" catalyst because ACB could have more Retail Outlets to sell its products from in the near future.
Or if Nelson does a $5 Billion dollar deal - that could be a game changer.
2) ACB's Stock Price does fluctuate. So I might not be bullish when a stock is at $10, but I might be bullish if the same stock is $2. So stock price does dictate whether a stock is a "good deal" or not.
Overall, my ability to "Change My Tune" as new data becomes available makes me $$$$.
For Example: If I am long on a stock and it is tanking, I just admit I was wrong - and then short it. I have been wrong about some of my best money makers in the past.
But the problem I have had with this board is: The Long-Longs do not change their tunes on ACB (regardless of the information being presented to them).
ACB could prepare the Bankruptcy Papers tomorrow - and the Long-Longs will still be BUYING ACB because they think the paperwork will get lost in the mail, or the messenger will get hit by a bus, or some other miracle.
If Low Cost of Production is a Competitive Advantage - then Village Farms should be really kicking it.
Village Farms International Reports Strong Second Quarter 2019 Results – Canadian Cannabis JV More Than Doubles Sales to CAD$32.3 Million with an All-In Cost of Production of CAD$0.65 per Gram and EBITDA Margin of 78%, and Achieves Third Consecutive Quarter of Profitability.
65 Cents per Gram Canadian $$$ is about 42 Cents per gram USD. Is that better than ACB?
However, ACB has no problem growing tons and tons of weed.
If you clone weed and grow it at home - you realize very quickly how 1 plant can turn into 50 very quickly.
So growing weed at low cost is not a problem for ACB.
The problem is: SELLING all the Cannabis ACB grows.
And personally, I don't see how ACB's Cannabis is any different than the rest of the Canadian Cannabis Operators.
This is what I mean by "Competitive Advantage".
If a Cannabis Customer walks into a dispensary and doesn't care who the grower is (it could be any company) - then ACB doesn't have a Competitive Advantage.
MX -
IMO. Your 2021 and 2022 calls are either going to be worth a fortune - or worth nothing.
I don't think there is going to be any "in-between" with ACB by 2021 or 2022. By then, we'll have a clear picture of the winners and losers in this space.
But I hope they do make you a fortune.
The question is: How much of that 24% Annual Growth will ACB be able to sell to?
Right now, ACB's International Sales are almost non-existent and they had to completely halt sales in Germany.
So that leaves just the Canadian Market for ACB to sell to.
And there are some really well capitalized Cannabis Companies that ACB will have to compete with directly in Canada (Canopy, APHA, etc).
The Cannabis Industry as a whole looks great.
But I am still failing to see what Competitive Advantage ACB has in the Canadian Market.
I don't trust anyone's opinion.
I trust that the Audited Financial Statements are correct - so that is what I rely on when investing.
That is about all I trust.
ATM (At-The-Market) selling of shares by ACB Management would definitely explain the inverse relationship between the Institutions BUYING and ACB's share price declining.
But the facts are:
ACB is definitely selling ATM.
The Institutions have definitely been buying.
And ACB share price has definitely declined over the past 9 months.
So I don't know what to think about this inverse ratio.
Yep. If the Institutional Investors are REALLY BUYING-IN - then why has ACB's Share price declined steadily for the past 9 months?
Institutional Buying by the "Big Boys" is usually what drives a stock price UP (not down).
So something is out of whack with ACB.
Oh great.
In the advent of a Take-Over, more ACB Shares will be printed on the Cam & Terry Printing Press.
That is great news for ACB Shareholders to know.