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C +.64 to 41.38, trades at around 50% of book value, a forward PE of 7 and yields over 5%. Any interest in Citigroup ? Or do you not like their asset quality and elevated debt/equity ratio ?
There seems to be solid technical support at around $40, a multi-year low that has held several times. I have it on my watchlist and may soon pick up a few shares.
HASI +1.09 to 15.51 after favorable JPMorgan commentary.
I picked up a few shares this morning.
The stock looks like it has bottomed and I was encouraged when I saw that they successfully raised $350M in August by issuing convertible notes paying just 3.75%. So they can always resort to convertibles if the big debt rollovers in 2025 and 2026 would result in much higher interest rates.
INMD -1.71 to 27.00, I doubled down on my small position this morning. The selloff looks overdone and I don't think production will be disrupted by the war against the Gaza based terrorists.
SSK - impressive to see your cash position down to 13% after averaging 58% so far this year. It's the most optimistic you've been all year ! I'm glad you're finally finding plenty of stocks to buy. This market correction certainly has created opportunities, especially among the small caps. I've also been doing some bargain hunting, though not as aggressively as you, since I think this correction may have further downside left. Earnings season kicks off next week and will factor into how the market does.
HASI -.15 to 14.21, debt to equity ratio is roughly 1.7 and in Q2 interest expense was 53% of revenue. In 2025 and 2026 nearly 50% of the debt comes due including 30% in 2026 that they're now paying just 3.38% interest on (10K page 105). The debt rollover could be very problematic. Maybe that's why the stock has been tanking ? Aren't you concerned about the debt coming due ? What if they have to pay double the interest rate or even more ?
AES -0.30 to 12.31, downgraded by UBS due to higher interest rates impacting earnings -
briefing -
UBS downgrades to Neutral due to rising interest rates and earnings deceleration at the Infrastructure segment driven by coal shutdowns (12.11 -0.50)
Analyst Gregg Orrill offered, "We downgrade AES to Neutral from Buy due to rising interest rates and earnings deceleration at the Infrastructure segment driven by coal shutdowns. Rates on the 10 year have increased to 4.75% from 3.52% when AES held their investor day on May 9. An inability to pass along a 100 bp increase in financing costs in new PPAs is a potential -1.3% impact on returns versus the company's 11.5% target in the U.S. This drives a reduction in our 5 year EPS growth forecast to 4.5% from 5.5% previously. A higher cost of capital limits growth opportunities at the international Infrastructure business where we assume a -16% annual EBITDA change '23-'27."
September Jobs Number much stronger than expected -
briefing -
Nonfarm payrolls rose a much stronger than expected 336,000 (Briefing.com consensus 158,000) and upward revision to July and August summed to an additional 119,000 jobs than previously thought. That was a shocker for the market given the soft ADP employment change reading seen earlier this week, but to be fair, maybe it should not have been a shocker given that initial jobless claims have been running at low levels consistent with a tight labor market.
There was a bit of moderation in average hourly earnings growth to 4.2% year-over-year from 4.3% in August, but when that is balanced with the unchanged 3.8% unemployment rate, the dip in the U6 unemployment rate, and the clear and continued strength in hiring activity, this labor market is not going to be labeled a weak labor market.
The key takeaway from the report is that it bodes well for the economy. That is good news, yet that good news is apt to translate in the market's mind into a stubborn Fed standing on guard to possibly raise rates again but certainly not cut them anytime soon.
September nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 (Briefing.com consensus 158,000). The 3-month average for total nonfarm payrolls increased to 266,000 from 189,000. August nonfarm payrolls revised to 227,000 from 187,000. July nonfarm payrolls revised to 236,000 from 157,000.
September private sector payrolls increased by 263,000 (Briefing.com consensus 150,000). August private sector payrolls revised to 177,000 from 179,000. July private sector payrolls revised to 145,000 from 155,000.
September unemployment rate was 3.8% (Briefing.com consensus 3.7%), versus 3.8% in August. Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 19.1% of the unemployed versus 20.3% in August. The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for unemployed and underemployed workers, was 7.0% versus 7.1% in August.
September average hourly earnings were up 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) versus 0.2% in August. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 4.2%, versus 4.3% for the 12 months ending in August.
The average workweek in September was 34.4 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.4), versus 34.4 hours in August. Manufacturing workweek held steady at 40.1 hours. Factory overtime unchanged at 3.1 hours.
The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.8%.
The employment-population ratio held steady at 60.4% for the third straight month.
CPE -2.74 to 33.69, sure looks oversold with oil still at $84/bbl, but maybe oil will soon fall back to $75 or lower ???? Keep in mind too that they do a lot of hedging a year or more in advance, so a high percentage of their production is already locked into a range of prices using both swaps and collars.
Here's a table showing the CPE versus Crude Oil prices -
20220103 51.73 76.08
20220104 55.61 76.99
20220105 52.49 77.85
20220106 53.83 79.46
20220107 51.94 78.9
20220110 48.98 78.23
20220111 53.47 81.22
20220112 54.35 82.64
20220113 53.31 82.12
20220114 57 83.82
20220118 53.86 84.83
20220119 52.4 85.8
20220120 50.8 85.55
20220121 47.23 85.14
20220124 49.35 83.31
20220125 53.04 85.6
20220126 51.15 87.35
20220127 49.01 86.61
20220128 50.09 86.82
20220131 49.44 88.15
20220201 51.06 88.2
20220202 53.49 88.26
20220203 54.6 90.27
20220204 54.62 92.31
20220207 52.08 91.32
20220208 49.36 89.36
20220209 51.96 89.66
20220210 52.16 89.88
20220211 56.09 93.1
20220214 55.34 95.46
20220215 53.73 90.21
20220216 52.45 91.83
20220217 52.3 90.04
20220218 51.94 90.21
20220222 50.35 91.91
20220223 53.16 92.1
20220224 52.38 92.81
20220225 51.56 91.59
20220228 56.36 95.72
20220301 58.96 103.41
20220302 59.42 110.6
20220303 57.94 107.67
20220304 59.79 115.68
20220307 60.68 119.4
20220308 60.98 123.7
20220309 58.96 108.7
20220310 60.47 106.02
20220311 58.7 109.33
20220314 54.87 103.01
20220315 54.39 94.79
20220316 53.68 93.59
20220317 56.91 101.65
20220318 56.01 103.09
20220321 58.41 109.97
20220322 57.77 109.27
20220323 58.55 114.93
20220324 57.6 112.34
20220325 62.23 113.9
20220328 61.17 105.96
20220329 60.93 104.24
20220330 61.18 107.82
20220331 59.08 100.28
20220401 62.42 99.27
20220404 63.44 103.28
20220405 61.18 101.96
20220406 59.4 96.23
20220407 60.49 96.03
20220408 61.96 98.26
20220411 59.28 94.29
20220412 60.08 100.6
20220413 61.64 104.25
20220414 61.17 106.95
20220418 62.17 107.61
20220419 60.42 102.05
20220420 63.16 102.19
20220421 61.04 103.79
20220422 55.69 102.07
20220425 54.27 98.54
20220426 52.49 101.7
20220427 52.26 102.02
20220428 53.92 105.36
20220429 51.27 104.69
20220502 48.93 105.17
20220503 51.84 102.41
20220504 55.28 107.81
20220505 51.01 108.26
20220506 50.04 109.77
20220509 45.05 103.09
20220510 46.04 99.76
20220511 44.83 105.71
20220512 44.01 106.13
20220513 46.38 110.49
20220516 48.07 111.82
20220517 50.29 109.63
20220518 47.84 107.04
20220519 47.83 109.89
20220520 47.95 110.28
20220523 50.27 110.29
20220524 49.55 109.77
20220525 51.55 110.33
20220526 54.03 114.09
20220527 58.55 115.07
20220531 58.46 114.67
20220601 62.46 115.26
20220602 57.39 116.87
20220603 57.81 118.87
20220606 58.85 118.5
20220607 62.45 119.41
20220608 62.5 122.11
20220609 62.43 121.51
20220610 59.93 120.67
20220613 55.93 120.93
20220614 57.07 118.93
20220615 55.69 113.09
20220616 50.93 115.25
20220617 46.03 107.99
20220621 48.34 109.52
20220622 43.08 106.19
20220623 41.43 104.27
20220624 40.68 107.62
20220627 43.06 109.57
20220628 45.48 111.76
20220629 41.61 109.78
20220630 39.2 105.76
20220701 39.27 108.43
20220705 35.89 99.5
20220706 36.46 98.53
20220707 38.43 102.73
20220708 38.32 104.79
20220711 36.74 104.09
20220712 35.83 95.84
20220713 36.2 96.3
20220714 36.17 95.78
20220715 37.35 94.57
20220718 39.27 99.42
20220719 42.27 100.74
20220720 44.29 99.88
20220721 41.95 96.35
20220722 40.36 94.7
20220725 43.05 96.7
20220726 41.93 94.98
20220727 44.62 97.26
20220728 44.9 96.42
20220729 46.04 98.62
20220801 44.24 93.89
20220802 44.18 94.42
20220803 42.66 90.66
20220804 37.22 88.54
20220805 37.51 89.01
20220808 36.82 90.76
20220809 36.81 90.5
20220810 38.02 91.93
20220811 40.67 94.34
20220812 41.22 92.09
20220815 39.71 88.85
20220816 39.07 86.16
20220817 40.47 87.69
20220818 42.03 90.11
20220819 41.05 90.44
20220822 40.78 90.36
20220823 42.6 93.74
20220824 43.91 94.89
20220825 44.42 92.52
20220826 43.69 93.06
20220829 45.07 97.01
20220830 42.42 91.64
20220831 42.56 89.55
20220901 40.99 86.61
20220902 41.54 86.87
20220906 41.14 86.88
20220907 39.62 81.94
20220908 40.49 83.54
20220909 42.26 86.79
20220912 43.6 87.78
20220913 42 87.31
20220914 44.6 88.48
20220915 41.18 84.65
20220916 40.43 84.76
20220919 39.77 85.36
20220920 37.83 83.94
20220921 37.14 82.94
20220922 36.05 83.49
20220923 33.18 78.74
20220926 31.36 76.71
20220927 31.79 78.5
20220928 34.44 82.15
20220929 34.77 81.23
20220930 35.01 79.49
20221003 37.97 83.63
20221004 41.31 86.52
20221005 43.91 87.76
20221006 45.9 88.45
20221007 44.84 92.64
20221010 43.21 91.13
20221011 42.2 89.35
20221012 42.38 87.27
20221013 44.2 89.11
20221014 41.89 85.61
20221017 42.06 84.53
20221018 41.82 82.07
20221019 42.23 84.52
20221020 41.93 84.51
20221021 43.9 85.05
20221024 43.95 84.58
20221025 44.71 85.32
20221026 45.82 87.91
20221027 45.05 89.08
20221028 44.09 87.9
20221031 43.96 86.53
20221101 45.02 88.37
20221102 43.14 90
20221103 46.53 88.17
20221104 46.33 92.61
20221107 48.23 91.79
20221108 47.74 88.91
20221109 42.84 85.83
20221110 44.38 86.47
20221111 45.5 88.96
20221114 43.24 85.87
20221115 44.58 86.25
20221116 42.8 85
20221117 42.52 81.4
20221118 42.33 80.11
20221121 40.9 80.04
20221122 43.09 80.95
20221123 42.18 77.94
20221125 42.39 76.28
20221128 40.95 77.24
20221129 41.26 78.2
20221130 41.92 80.55
20221201 40.92 81.22
20221202 41.23 79.98
20221205 39.47 76.93
20221206 37.78 74.25
20221207 36.59 72.01
20221208 35.52 71.46
20221209 34.2 71.02
20221212 35.3 73.17
20221213 35.73 75.39
20221214 35.75 77.28
20221215 35.42 76.15
20221216 34.65 74.46
20221219 34.43 75.38
20221220 34.5 76.23
20221221 35.68 78.29
20221222 34.77 77.49
20221223 36.26 79.56
20221227 36.71 79.53
20221228 34.55 78.96
20221229 35.87 78.4
20221230 37.09 80.26
20230103 34.66 76.93
20230104 34.73 72.84
20230105 35.39 73.67
20230106 36.3 73.77
20230109 35.94 74.63
20230110 36.63 75.12
20230111 37.26 77.41
20230112 39.44 78.39
20230113 40.15 79.86
20230117 40.49 80.45
20230118 39.66 79.8
20230119 41.52 80.61
20230120 42.65 81.64
20230123 43.63 81.62
20230124 42.73 80.13
20230125 42.78 80.15
20230126 43.89 81.01
20230127 43.27 79.68
20230130 41.45 77.9
20230131 42.55 78.87
20230201 41.64 76.41
20230202 40.55 75.88
20230203 40.21 73.39
20230206 39.24 74.11
20230207 41.79 77.14
20230208 41.32 78.47
20230209 39.57 78.06
20230210 41.82 79.72
20230213 41.27 80.14
20230214 41.49 79.06
20230215 40.4 78.83
20230216 38.69 78.74
20230217 36.11 76.55
20230221 35.3 76.36
20230222 34.8 73.95
20230223 37.32 75.39
20230224 38.27 76.32
20230227 39.28 75.68
20230228 38.76 77.05
20230301 39.78 77.69
20230302 40.56 78.16
20230303 42.24 79.68
20230306 40.86 80.46
20230307 39.59 77.58
20230308 38.75 76.66
20230309 37.22 75.72
20230310 36.46 76.68
20230313 34.63 74.8
20230314 34.1 71.33
20230315 30.22 67.74
20230316 30.56 68.52
20230317 29.75 66.93
20230320 30.01 67.82
20230321 31.42 69.67
20230322 30.66 70.9
20230323 30.26 69.96
20230324 30.58 69.26
20230327 32.27 72.81
20230328 32.52 73.2
20230329 33.11 72.97
20230330 33.25 74.37
20230331 33.44 75.67
20230403 36.99 80.42
20230404 36.34 80.71
20230405 36.28 80.61
20230406 35.38 80.7
20230410 36.44 79.74
20230411 36.82 81.53
20230412 37.49 83.26
20230413 37.84 82.16
20230414 38.06 82.52
20230417 36.65 80.83
20230418 36.31 80.9
20230419 35.55 79.24
20230420 34.23 77.37
20230421 33.76 77.87
20230424 35.06 78.76
20230425 33.08 77.07
20230426 31.22 74.3
20230427 31.37 74.76
20230428 33.14 76.78
20230501 33.11 75.66
20230502 30.88 71.66
20230503 30.68 68.6
20230504 31.45 68.56
20230505 33.18 71.34
20230508 32.26 73.16
20230509 31.53 73.71
20230510 30.88 72.56
20230511 30.44 70.87
20230512 30.62 70.04
20230515 32.13 71.09
20230516 30.93 70.84
20230517 32.17 72.89
20230518 32.48 71.94
20230519 32.17 71.69
20230522 33.06 72.05
20230523 33.44 72.91
20230524 33.41 74.34
20230525 31.73 71.83
20230526 32.01 72.67
20230530 30.97 69.46
20230531 30.63 68.09
20230601 31.45 70.1
20230602 32.81 71.74
20230605 32.23 72.15
20230606 33.05 71.74
20230607 34.38 72.53
20230608 33.96 71.29
20230609 33.46 70.17
20230612 32.87 67.12
20230613 33.82 69.42
20230614 33.21 68.27
20230615 34.17 70.81
20230616 34.15 71.93
20230620 33.37 71.19
20230621 34.42 72.53
20230622 32.62 69.51
20230623 32.01 69.16
20230626 32.82 69.37
20230627 33.27 67.7
20230628 34.43 69.56
20230629 34.91 69.86
20230630 35.07 70.64
20230703 35.15 69.79
20230705 34.66 71.79
20230706 33.53 71.8
20230707 33.59 73.86
20230710 33.8 72.99
20230711 34.99 74.83
20230712 35.24 75.75
20230713 35.46 76.89
20230714 33.67 75.42
20230717 34.11 74.08
20230718 35.32 75.66
20230719 34.72 75.29
20230720 34.63 75.65
20230721 35.02 77.07
20230724 35.53 78.74
20230725 35.61 79.63
20230726 34.93 78.78
20230727 34.45 80.09
20230728 36.06 80.58
20230731 37.56 81.8
20230801 36.74 81.37
20230802 35.83 79.49
20230803 35.91 81.55
20230804 36.75 82.82
20230807 36.76 81.94
20230808 37.55 82.92
20230809 37.69 84.4
20230810 37.03 82.82
20230811 36.82 83.19
20230814 36.62 82.51
20230815 35.59 80.5
20230816 35.37 79.02
20230817 35.99 79.9
20230818 36.77 80.66
20230821 36.94 80.12
20230822 36.52 79.64
20230823 36.27 78.89
20230824 35.9 79.05
20230825 36.81 79.83
20230828 37.58 80.1
20230829 37.94 81.16
20230830 38.82 81.63
20230831 39.23 83.63
20230901 40.68 85.55
20230905 40.56 86.69
20230906 40.8 87.54
20230907 40.31 86.87
20230908 39.76 87.51
20230911 38.36 87.29
20230912 40.11 88.84
20230913 39.88 88.52
20230914 39.57 90.16
20230915 38.58 90.02
20230918 38.51 90.58
20230919 38 90.48
20230920 37.86 89.66
20230921 37.39 89.63
20230922 37.1 90.03
20230925 38.13 89.68
20230926 37.85 90.39
20230927 39.71 93.68
20230928 39.51 91.71
20230929 39.12 90.79
20231002 36.83 88.82
20231003 36.43 89.23
GERN - I added a few shares today at 1.81 and have a GTC bids waiting at 1.70 and 1.60. .... I think it gets a strong bounce at some point.
SSK - the S&P500 hit 4220 this morning. Do you still think that 4200 will hold ? Or are you now thinking it goes to 4100 or even 4000 ?
GERN - you're last add was at $2.11 .... why not add today at $1.79 ?
Wade: GERN -.08 to 1.79, are you loading up at this price ? I was surprised at how easily it broke below technical support at $2.
GERN -.13 to 1.99, I think there's strong technical support at around this level so I added a few shares, but just for a trade. Of course if this market correction gets worse it could drag GERN lower as well. We'll see if the 52wk low of $1.95 holds .....
GCT +1.06 to 8.75, evidently the traders in this stock couldn't care less if it's a fraud. I guess we should have been loading up in the $6's yesterday morning, LOL. I'm adding to my short position but it might be a mistake. Just a very small position.
GCT rebuttal released this morning ..... it lacks any detail which is itself a red flag. They chose not to address any of the specific points made in the short attack -
WALNUT, Calif., Sept. 29, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- GigaCloud Technology Inc (Nasdaq: GCT) (“GigaCloud” or the “Company”), a pioneer of global end-to-end B2B ecommerce solutions for large parcel merchandise, today issued the following statement in response to claims made in a report by Culper Research, a short seller.
The report lacks merit and contains numerous defamatory, selective, inaccurate, incomplete and misleading statements and speculations. The report demonstrates a fundamental lack of understanding of the Company’s business and financial condition. The Company is reviewing the claims and considering appropriate courses of action to protect the interests of all of its shareholders. As part of its commitment to transparency and compliance, the Company will make additional disclosures in due course consistent with the requirements of applicable rules and regulations of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “Commission”) and Nasdaq and ensure that relevant information is communicated to shareholders and the public in a timely and accurate manner.
Investors are cautioned that the claims come from a short seller. Therefore, investors shall exercise caution when considering these claims. Investors are encouraged to review materials filed by the Company with the Commission and available on the Company’s investor relations website. The Company reserves all rights to take appropriate measures to defend itself against these claims and safeguard the interests of its shareholders.
CUBI (32.35) Raymond James sets $60 price target -
Raymond James last night initiated coverage of Customers Bancorp with a Strong Buy rating and $60 price target. The bank is positioned to benefit from market disruption post the failure of SIVB and SBNY with its FDIC acquisition of venture and capital call loans, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says this should support "significant" loan and deposit growth opportunities that can meaningfully enhance Customers Bancorp's franchise value. It expects the stock will steadily re-rate higher as management executes on its strategic priorities.
That thought is also worrisome, lol
GCT - plenty of shares available for shorting at IB. I shorted a few at $7.60 and will be trading the stock again, but this time on the short side, lol.
GCT now at $7.50 ..... I should have shorted a few for good measure when I bailed out in the mid $8's ! That short report is rather damning. Might still be a good short at $7.50, although who knows ??? The company might be out with a strong rebuttal by later today.
GCT - thanks for the alert .... I decided to bail out after seeing your post. Sounds very scammy, but of course the short attack may also be unreliable. Who knows what the truth about this company is, but their reported financials do sound a bit too good to be true.
I'll be watching from the sidelines. Maybe a rebuttal will be forthcoming from the company ?
GCT -.72 to 8.75, getting whacked .... I added a few at 8.80, but it might prove to be a mistake. It's breaking below the recent $9 support level and that could trigger a further selloff. Nonetheless, I have lower GTC bids waiting ..... we'll see how low it goes.
Len gave me the precise GPS coordinates of the buried treasure, but it's in very rugged mountainous terrain that will involve some serious bushwhacking through bear country, so I keep postponing my trip. One of these years I'll probably summon the energy, but I've done so well in the market over the past decade that I'm not feeling very motivated. Also, the thought of running into a bear has me worried. I'm a lot more scared of real bears than a bear market.
Gilead - I don't have time to post details on any of these stocks, but if you do a search of this board you'll find plenty of commentary on many of them. They're mostly single digit PE, some trading below book value and several with significant dividend yields. Most are significantly down from their highs. I own many of them and have others on a watchlist for potential purchase -
RITM, AER, CUBI, AMRK, CPE, REI, MHO, TOL, CVS, PYPL, INMD, CMRE, KOP, NVDA, HRMY, COLL, ULH, GTEC, ASIX, M, GM and BXMT.
This 8% correction in the S&P is dragging down many stocks a lot more than 8%. I'm seeing plenty of stocks that look oversold and undervalued.
OGN -.71 to 16.54, the relentless selloff continues. It keeps getting cheaper every day so I'm not feeling very motivated to add to my small position. The latest news on "The Fly" was positive - new analyst coverage with an "Overweight" rating -
fly (9/21) -
Barclays analyst Balaji Prasad initiated coverage of Organon with an Overweight rating and $28 price target. The firm says Organon is a global play and leader in women's specialty. The company is seeing "rapid growth" in biosimilars that can together offset the decline in its brands portfolio, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
VFS -1.74 to 11.14, worked out well for the shorts despite the extremely high borrow rates ..... it's way down from the peak of $93 just 4 weeks ago ! Yeah, in this market hedging with a few shorts is probably a good idea ..... I have a small position in SPXS that has now become quite profitable. I bought it in mid August.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172702638&txt2find=vfs
TRT would have made a nice short ahead of the report ..... over 100k shares available at IB.
Crude Oil +3.01 to 93.40 as Cushing inventories reach dangerously low levels ..... looks like oil could break over $100 in the coming weeks ..... bad news for inflation but good news for producers. Stocks like CPE, REI, VTLE, NOG and SBOW look very cheap ....
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Climb-As-Cushing-Oil-Stocks-Near-Historic-Lows.html
HRMY +.87 to 34.00, it's interesting how far apart those price targets are and a good example how "fair value" is very much a matter of opinion.
I recently sold part of my position when my September $35 covered calls got assigned, but I'll buy back shares if it dips back near $30 where there's strong technical support.
OGN Q3 results will be interesting .... the big question is how well are their "established brands" holding up to the competition ?
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172766183&txt2find=ogn
Yeah we've all taken big hits in market crashes, but I still welcome them because of the bargains that get created. My portfolio has always regained the losses much faster than the broader market. I'd be happy if the market crashed 50% every 5 years, because it's so easy to find bargains that subsequently gain 200% and more .... so overall it's fairly easy to claw back the losses relatively quickly and much quicker than the broader market. Yeah 2008 was terrible but it was easy to get spectacular returns in 2009 and 2010.
So if the market crashes in 2024, I'll be delighted. Bring it on !
Wade: suddenly you think that long term disciplined investing in undervalued stocks is gambling ??? I totally disagree with that. I do agree that for some people investing can devolve into frequent undisciplined day trading and that is more akin to gambling. Or being heavily concentrated in a 3x leveraged short ETF like SPXS that suffers from price decay .... yes, that's gambling. Or making a dozen trades per week of $550k to $1M in single securities as you reported doing for a year. Yes, that's definitely gambling.
As for the market being down including invested dividends over a 20 year period ??? Even if one foolishly invested all funds at the exact peak in 1929 one made a small profit after inflation over the next 20 years. If however if one dollar cost averaged over the years, as disciplined investors do, then one made huge returns by buying the bottom in the 1930's and collecting hefty dividends all the way back up.
Yes, another bear market is inevitable just as a crash is, but who knows when ? I welcome major corrections and bear markets as an opportunity to pick up great bargains. I always have a very diversified portfolio of stocks so there's always some that don't get hit hard that I can sell to go bargain hunting.
btw, investing in long term treasuries involves interest rate risk ..... if rates rise due to higher inflation, then bond prices fall.
OGN -.35 to 17.91, continues to make all time new lows .... why not wait for it to find some technical support and build a base ? The way it's acting, it seems like you could buy in cheaper tomorrow. Tough to call the bottom on this one. It looked like it might find support near $20, but nope.
btw, I did join you with a few shares but at this point it's just a tiny position and I'm in no hurry to add .....
CART -.08 to 29.92, Instacart, the hot IPO of last week which priced at $30 and opened trading at $42 is now below its IPO price .... I added it to my watchlist for a potential trade .....
GCT +1.08 to 10.33, I've been trimming shares into the strength. It continues to be a fabulous trader !
HDSN (12.10) - Canaccord initiates coverage at "BUY" with $15 price target -
fly -
Canaccord starts Hudson Technologies at Buy, sees shares undervalued
Canaccord initiated coverage of Hudson Technologies with a Buy rating and $15 price target. Hudson is the largest U.S. reclaimer and reseller of refrigerants, of which 80% of the installed base today utilizes canisters of hydrofluorocarbons, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Hudson holds 35% market share in a "heavily fragmented" refrigerant gas reclamation market with more than 30 smaller reclaimers. It believes the stock is undervalued relative to chemical producers and similar recycling businesses.
Wade - by living off the interest it means your capital is staying the same and is therefore being eroded every year by inflation in terms of buying power. So if you have $2M in treasuries now and you are living off $100k interest, that $2M and $100k interest will be worth a lot less in 10 years depending on what inflation does. Your capital and income will be getting diminished with every passing year on an inflation adjusted basis. Nothing great about that.
Wade: that chart is very misleading because it excludes dividends which historically for the S&P were much higher than now. Even for someone who foolishly put all their money into the S&P at the exact peak in 1968, never added another penny, and then withdrew it all in early 1993, they made 4.1% annualized AFTER inflation including dividends reinvested. Someone who added to their portfolio with dollar cost averaging did far better. And experienced investors who invested selectively in undervalued stocks did even much better.
Here's an S&P total return calculator that adjusts for inflation and includes reinvested dividends - it gives a far more accurate picture on total returns than the chart you referenced which omits dividends -
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/
Wade - what makes you think that one has to invest in the S&P500 ??? Haven't you been beating the index for the past 20 years by a wide margin ? It's all about finding undervalued stocks and investing in those. I have no interest whatsoever in investing in the S&P. I always aim to do a lot better than the S&P.
You've been reporting for years that you had outstanding results, far better than the S&P or Russell, including a 500% gain in one year. Or is that not true ? How is it that you're not financially secure after all those stellar years ? It seems like you should have been financially secure already a decade ago. Just recently you posted that you were day trading $1M positions - that implies a multi-million dollar portfolio. How much do you need on the sidelines to feel financially secure ?
I was trading given stocks in the amounts of $500K to up to $1M per stock all year, a dozen times per week
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Wade - 5% in Treasuries is roughly 3.5% after taxes and lags inflation ..... so you're actually losing money. And you may prefer financial security, but over the long term constantly taking money out of the market has cost you big time as per my prior post -
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