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Q2-2016 vs. Q2-2015 (Retail + Institutional Data)
V
TRx: 215,355 {vs 139,591; +54.28%} – Sector +2.38% --- ATH
L
TRx: 44,965 {vs 102,562; -56.16%}
Gen L
TRx: 863,196 {vs 855,231; +0.93%}
V Q2-2016 Retail + Inst. TRx Market Share: 19.17% vs 12.72% in Q2-2015
Total Monthly Retail + Institutional Data June-2016
V
TRx: 75,125 {vs 72,269; +3.95%} – ATH -- Sector +1.43%
(Inst # 5,017 vs 4,884 – ATH)
L
TRx: 14,176 {vs 15,003; -5.51%}
(Inst # 3,978 vs 4,032)
Gen L
TRx: 292,251 {vs 288,912; +1.16%}
(Inst # 30,631 vs 26,312)
V Monthly Retail + Inst. TRx Market Share: 19.69% vs 19.21% --- ATH
sorry guys, something urgent came up and won't be able to update the number today
Raf
On top of what Zum mentioned, they stated this (no binary event) since they consider with the 1A win, and publication in journals, Red-it will be kicking and marketed way before the official FDA Approval. + they consider this as an ongoing process, any subgroup analysis confirmed later on, can be easily pitched due to 1A win.
As for your survival msg, well they stated that with 0% given to red-it, 37% price upside is still there...ie company valued at $3 without red-it
H.C. WAINWRIGHT Update
With strong, persistent growth in the underlying business, REDUCE-IT becomes increasingly more like a free optionality at current trading levels.
Recently, we hosted an investor dinner with Amarin’s management team. Two key underappreciated aspects of the Amarin story emerged: (1) the underlying business of Vascepa in the MARINE indication is growing steadily, driven predominantly by new patient starts, as well as switch rates from other therapies (about 10% of Vascepa scripts, >2x last year’s rate);
(2) REDUCE-IT outcome may not be as binary of an event as the Street expects it to be (see next bullet).
On the first point, we note that if quarterly sales continue to grow at the ongoing rate that could well lead to an annual revenue in range or, in our opinion, in excess of company’s guidance (company guidance is $105M-120M; consensus is $121M with $29M for 2Q16; we model for $129M and $30M, respectively). While we continue to be optimistic about the final outcome of REDUCE-IT come end of 2017/early 2018, we argue here that even if one were to ascribe zero value to REDUCEIT, there is still upside to the stock based solely on the clockwork baseline business itself (i.e., if we reduce the POS of REDUCE-IT to 0% from 66% in our model, there is an 37% upside to current price). {Sam: In other terms, fair price of AMRN with Reduce-It miss is $3.00}
Ahead of the quarterly update, with management’s expectation that the company will be cash flow positive by year-end, and a more refined perspective on REDUCE-IT in terms of the first amendment win (see below), we reiterate our Buy rating and a $10 PT.
REDUCE-IT outcome may not be a binary event. We have long been advocates for a final REDUCE-IT win, and while it may not be essential to Amarin’s value at current levels, we continue to view it as a key catalyst that is capable of bringing the company back to its former glory (in the period between Anchor topline win and immediately prior to AdCom’s decision against Vascepa, stock traded at a high of 19.87 and low of 4.50).
Importantly, we note several underappreciated positive ramifications of the first amendment as it pertains to REDUCE-IT: (1) it effectively converts the trial readout from a binary event to a continuous event with different shades of win; and (2) it allows potential to promote REDUCE-IT outcome prior to the sNDA review.
This provides the added cushion that in the unlikely (in our opinion) event of a REDUCE-IT miss, the publication of any scientifically-sound subgroup signal (likely given the sheer size of the 8K-patient trial) may still drive an uptick in scripts....Based on this data point alone, we can gather that any shade of a REDUCE-IT win (overall or in the subgroup) will likely bring about a meaningful promotion effort (with translation into Vascepa sales) well before it gets the official regulatory nod.
link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1gB2YESBJV7bjlMYkJTWDRVeTQ/view?usp=sharing
Total Monthly Retail Data June-2016
V
TRx: 70,108 {vs 67,385; +4.04%} – Sector +0.28% -- ATH
NRx: 28,152 {vs 26,669; +5.56%} – Sector +2.72% -- ATH
L
TRx: 10,198 {vs 10,971; -7.05%}
NRx: 3,769 {vs 3,600; +4.70%}
Gen L
TRx: 261,620 {vs 262,600; -0.37%}
NRx: 96,672 {vs 94,918; +1.85%}
Monthly Retail TRx Market Share: 20.50% vs 19.76% --- ATH
Monthly Retail NRx Market Share: 21.89% vs 21.30% --- ATH
Sts, what's ur handicap?
Scripts Update - ATH across the board
Week Ending 01/07
V
TRx: 16,622 {vs 15,844; +4.91%} Sector +3.34% -- ATH
NRx: 6,589 {vs 6,332; +4.06%} Sector +4.18% -- ATH
Ref: 10,033 {vs 9,512; +5.48%} Sector +2.82% -- ATH
L
TRx: 2,394 {vs 2,316; +3.37%}
NRx: 948 {vs 887; +6.88%}
GenL
TRx: 60,755 {vs 59,030; +2.92%}
NRx: 22,373 {vs 21,476; +4.18%}
V TRx Market Share: 20.84% vs 20.53% -- ATH
V NRx Market Share: 22.03% vs 22.07% {ATH = 22.07%}
V Ref Market Share: 20.12% vs 19.61% -- ATH
Scripts Update for Week Ending 24/06
V
TRx: 15,844 {vs 15,959; -0.72%} Sector -0.30%
NRx: 6,332 {vs 6,419; -1.36%} Sector -1.55%
Ref: 9,512 {vs 9,540; -0.29%} Sector +0.45%
L
TRx: 2,316 {vs 2,242; +3.30%}
NRx: 887 {vs 832; +6.61%}
GenL
TRx: 59,030 {vs 59,224; -0.33%}
NRx: 21,476 {vs 21,897; -1.92%}
V TRx Market Share: 20.53% vs 20.61%
V NRx Market Share: 22.07% vs 22.02% -- ATH
V Ref Market Share: 19.61% vs 19.76%
Total Monthly Retail + Institutional Data May-2016
V
TRx: 72,269 {vs 67,961; +6.34%} – ATH -- Sector +2.84%
(Inst # 4,884 vs 4,650 -- ATH; +5.03% -- Sector +0.91% -- Inst Mkt Share 13.86% vs 13.32% -- ATH)
L
TRx: 15,003 {vs 15,786; -4.96%}
(Inst # 4,032 vs 4,289)
Gen L
TRx: 288,912 {vs 282,033; +2.44%}
(Inst # 26,312 vs 25,973)
V Monthly Retail + Inst. TRx Market Share: 19.21% vs 18.58% --- ATH
Scripts;
I am leaving on a long vacation tomorrow and won't be able to update scripts this Friday and the next one. Upon my return on the 27th if not posted, I'll update the numbers in addition to inst ones that will posted next Wednesday
Shame I won't be here as I'm expecting back to back new ATH in numbers and market share
Regards to all
:) JL
The total number for the month of May will be an ATH also as Institutional Numbers are also increasing. We should end up May-2016 > 72,400 in TRx which is > 6% growth compared to April
Total Monthly Retail Data May-2016
V
TRx: 67,385 {vs 63,311; +6.43%} – Sector +3.05% -- ATH
NRx: 26,669 {vs 25,454; +4.77%} – Sector -0.45% -- ATH
L
TRx: 10,971 {vs 11,497; -4.58%}
NRx: 3,600 {vs 3,790; -5.01%}
Gen L
TRx: 262,600 {vs 256,060; +2.55%}
NRx: 94,918 {vs 96,510; -1.65%}
Monthly Retail TRx Market Share: 19.76% vs 19.13% --- ATH
Monthly Retail NRx Market Share: 21.30% vs 20.24% --- ATH
Invest the reason for picking Feb 5 is bcz it was the 1st date of script reporting under the new system. May 27 is the last available data before this week's data which is a short week.
No tricks, no gimmicks, simple plain number explanation
Have a good day
Invest, the nice things with numbers is that they never lie
Q1-16 vs Q1-15 increase of TRx by 52%+
Q1-16 vs Q1-15 Mkt Share: 16.85% compared to 11.23%
From 5-Feb-16 till 27-May-16 increase of TRx by more than 14%
If you compare today's numbers (ie short week) it is still an increase of more than 10%
When the 1A properly kick start and with the latest niacin and fib, we should a way better increase
Zum, Yep Memorial Day Last Monday. Short week for the scripts. No dramatic change in terms of % decrease vs. past years
Scripts Update Week Ending 3/6
V
TRx: 14,994 {vs 15,552; -3.59%} Sector -2.15%
NRx: 5,534 {vs 6,228; -11.14%} Sector -7.85%
Ref: 9,460 {vs 9,324; +1.46%} Sector +1.23%
L
TRx: 2,373 {vs 2,407; -1.41%}
NRx: 765 {vs 807; -5.20%}
GenL
TRx: 57,881 {vs 58,941; -1.80%}
NRx: 20,059 {vs 21,569; -7.00%}
V TRx Market Share: 19.93% vs 20.22%
V NRx Market Share: 21.00% vs 21.77%
V Ref Market Share: 19.35% vs 19.31% ATH
Short Interest Update: +3.39%
31/05/16: 16,508,033 Change: +541,654
13/05/16: 15,966,379
Jefferies Update 07/06/2016
Amarin Corporation (AMRN) Jefferies 2016 Healthcare Conference Takeaways
At our annual healthcare conference, John Thero, CEO, discussed the outlook for Vascepa for '16/beyond. AMRN remains focused on improving Vascepa visibility and uptake, particularly with the help of the ANCHOR and JELIS data in mixed dyslipidemia, and reiterated rev guidance of $105-120M for FY’16.
REDUCE-IT remains a key focus, and as previously reported it has reached 60% of primary events and interim analysis by the DMC is on track for Sep/Oct. AMRN Remains Focused on Improving Vascepa Visibility and Uptake; REDUCEIT Remains a Key Focus: John Thero, CEO, discussed the outlook for Vascepa for 2016 and beyond.
AMRN remains focused on improving Vascepa visibility and uptake, particularly with the help of the off-label promotion in mixed dyslipidemia using the ANCHOR and JELIS data, and reiterated revenue guidance of $105-120M for FY’16. Focus continues to be on the REDUCE-IT outcomes trial; as previously reported, AMRN has reached the onset of ~60% of the target primary cardiovascular events in the study, and the prespecified interim analysis by the DMC is on-track for September/October. AMRN reiterated that the interim bar to stop the trial for overwhelming efficacy is high, and noted that it in addition to meeting the bar on the primary endpoint would prefer to see certain secondary endpoints be favorable as well. We expect the interim to continue as planned with final analysis expected in early ’18, for which we have a favorable outlook.
AMRN Continuing Partnership Discussions for Ex-US Opportunities: AMRN also noted that discussions with potential partners for ex-US opportunities for Vascepa are ongoing, some of which may have interest pre-REDUCE-IT results. Eddingpharm is continuing the development of Vascepa in China, where there may be significant opportunity and where there is no equivalent omega-3 fatty acid product in the space. AMRN noted that another trial may be needed as a regulatory requirement and it is awaiting to see the design of that trial. According to the agreement, Eddingpharm will pay AMRN tiered double-digit percentage royalties on net sales of Vascepa in the territory escalating to the high teens.
FORM 8K AMARIN
On June 7, 2016, Watson Laboratories filed a motion for voluntary dismissal requesting the court to terminate its own appeal of Jan 22, 2016.......The motion by Watson, to which Amarin has consented, follows the May 31, 2016 FDA grant of 5 Year, NCE with respect to Vascepa.
Once the court of Appeals grants Watson's unopposed motion to dismiss the appeal, there will be no pending patent litigation related to Vascepa
Scripts Update for Week Ending 27/5
V
TRx: 15,552 {vs 15,431; +0.78%} Sector -1.05%
NRx: 6,228 {vs 6,249; -0.34%} Sector -2.17%
Ref: 9,324 {vs 9,182; +1.55%} Sector -0.38%
L
TRx: 2,407 {vs 2,556; -5.83%} ATL
NRx: 807 {vs 868; -7.03%} ATL
GenL
TRx: 58,941 {vs 59,729; -1.32%}
NRx: 21,569 {vs 22,120; -2.49%} ATL since the new method (Feb-2016)
V TRx Market Share: 20.22% vs 19.86% ATH
V NRx Market Share: 21.77% vs 21.37% ATH
V Ref Market Share: 19.31% vs 18.94% ATH
Jefferies Update;
Amarin Corporation (AMRN) FDA Grants NCE Exclusivity for Vascepa
Key Takeaway
AMRN announced that the FDA has granted Vascepa 5-year new chemical exclusivity (NCE), which runs from its date of FDA approval on Jul 26, ’12 and extends until Jul 26, ‘17. Any potential P-IV filing for Vascepa therefore would come no sooner than Jun 26, ’16. We view the news as a positive for AMRN but make no changes to our model as we already assume patent protection for Vascepa out to ‘30.
FDA Grants NCE Exclusivity for Vascepa: AMRN announced this afternoon that the FDA has granted Vascepa 5-year new chemical entity (NCE) marketing exclusivity, which runs from its date of FDA approval on Jul 26, 2012, and extends until Jul 26, 2017. Any potential Paragraph IV filings for generic Vascepa, therefore, would come no sooner than Jul 26, 2016. The 30 month statutory stay is extended to Jan 26, 2020, or 7.5 years from FDA approval.
A Positive for AMRN But No Changes to Our Model; We Assume Patent Protection for Vascepa Out to 2030: We view the news as positive for AMRN but we make no changes to our model as we already assume patent protection for Vascepa out to 2030, where we see $1.0B in peak sales in the severe hypertriglyceridemia (unadjusted) and mixed dyslipidemia (75% risk-adjustment) populations. AMRN has prosecuted several patent applications on Vascepa for cardiovascular indications; to date, AMRN has had 46 U.S. patent applications that have been issued or allowed, the majority of which expire in 2030. AMRN also has several additional patent applications that are still pending
Welcome back JL, great coincidence of the sanction end and the NCE dilemma being settled, almost 4Years after the approval and no exclusivity and NME and back to no exclusivity....good to have u back JL
Scripts Update Week Ending 20/5
V
TRx: 15,431 {vs 15,494; -0.41%} Sector -0.19%
NRx: 6,249 {vs 6,329; -1.26%} Sector -0.14%
Ref: 9,182 {vs 9,165; +0.19%} Sector -0.22%
L
TRx: 2,556 {vs 2,515; +1.63%}
NRx: 868 {vs 808; +7.43%}
GenL
TRx: 59,729 {vs 59,853; -0.21%}
NRx: 22,120 {vs 22,140; -0.09%}
V TRx Market Share: 19.86% vs 19.90%
V NRx Market Share: 21.37% vs 21.62%
V Ref Market Share: 18.94% vs 18.86% ATH
Total Monthly Retail + Institutional Data April-2016
V
TRx: 67,961 {vs 68,440; -0.70%} – Sector -5.57%
(Inst # 4,650 vs 4,187 -- ATH; +11.06% -- Inst Mkt Share 13.32% vs 10.56% -- ATH)
L
TRx: 15,786 {vs 20,401; -22.62%}
(Inst # 4,289 vs 7,766)
Gen L
TRx: 282,033 {vs 298,506; -5.52%}
(Inst # 25,973 vs 27,709)
V Monthly Retail + Inst. TRx Market Share: 18.58% vs 17.67% --- ATH
Oppenheimer Quarterly Update;
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1gB2YESBJV7TkRoeTZXSGQtTjg/view?usp=sharing
No Scripts Update this Friday as i am travelling and don't have access to my terminal. You guys have to rely on keystone :):) Hopefully we will be above 16K (ie close to 19K old system)
I expected a bit lower numbers. Not sure if what I'm gonna say makes sense; March had 23 business days in comparison April had 21 business days. My initial thought that we will have lower numbers came from the above and it turned out to be true
Total Monthly Retail Data April-2016
V
TRx: 63,311 {vs 64,253; -1.47%} – Sector -4.84%
NRx: 25,454 {vs 26,575; -4.22%} – Sector -7.63%
L
TRx: 11,497 {vs 12,635; -9.01%}
NRx: 3,790 {vs 4,273; -11.3%}
Gen L
TRx: 256,060 {vs 270,800; -5.44%}
NRx: 96,510 {vs 105,300; -8.35%}
Monthly Retail TRx Market Share: 19.13% vs 18.48% --- ATH
Monthly Retail NRx Market Share: 20.24% vs 19.52% --- ATH
Scripts Update - ATH Across the Board - Week Ending 06/05
V
TRx: 15,853 {vs 15,068; +5.21%} Sector +1.84% ATH
NRx: 6,378 {vs 5,958; +7.05%} Sector +1.58% ATH
Ref: 9,475 {vs 9,110; +4.01%} Sector +2.00% ATH
L
TRx: 2,610 {vs 2,680; -2.61%}
NRx: 888 {vs 916; -3.06%}
GenL
TRx: 62,059 {vs 61,319; +1.21%}
NRx: 22,823 {vs 22,747; +0.33%}
V TRx Market Share: 19.69% vs 19.06% ATH
V NRx Market Share: 21.20% vs 20.11% ATH
V Ref Market Share: 18.79% vs 18.42% ATH
(Moggy)...Alwayswatching, based on the link you provided, I'm pretty sure based on what Moggy is providing on this board, he fits nicely in the last category "a Beginner-level basher (also known as a Pitchfork)"
Hahaha Moggy Moggy, poor lad, still a beginner, hahaha, and you will always be a beginner, not getting promoted and achieving anything
Oh man, how am I going to sleep tonight knowing Moggy is a beginner, u ruined it alwayswatching :):):):)
Mog, ur the one who criticized me when i mistakenly posted oppenheimer update. Relax, take a chill pill and wait till all 13F are released for qtr ending 03/16, only 30/94 (last one they was 94 update) are released, and so far the number is up 9.02% but i didn't post anything until all is over, so stop the fraudulent messages and the scare tactics
Mog, some extracts from the most recent coverage released today, take your time in reading the below;
I know you didn't even read one complete page from this coverage, so below are some highlighted points...enjoy shortyyy !!
Focus is also on REDUCE-IT where we believe Vascepa can show a benefit on final analysis in early '18,
We have reviewed recent literature and we highlight certain studies that support it, as well as studies highlighting mechanisms where EPA may provide benefit. We expect interim in ~Sep/Oct to continue as planned, and final results in early '18 where we believe it has favorable odds.
We currently have a positive view on whether Vascepa can show a favorable cardiovascular benefit in REDUCE-IT. At this time, we believe REDUCE-IT has a ~60% chance of succeeding, however our model more conservatively models only a ~25% chance (75% risk-discount)
Our view is that a higher baseline EPA level in the Japanese patients would have correspondingly benefitted the control group. Therefore, we believe the hurdle for the Epadel group to show a benefit with statistical significance would have been higher, not lower. We believe patients in REDUCE-IT with a lower background EPA level should derive a greater benefit.
JELIS Included Primary Prevention Patients: JELIS included both primary and secondary prevention patients (broad-based patient population), with ~5-6% of the patients having a history of myocardial infarction, ~15-16% with a history of angina pectoris, and ~5% with a history of angioplasty (CABG or PTCA). That is, most (~80%) of the patients were primary prevention patients. REDUCE-IT, on the other hand, is enrolling only secondary, high-risk patients. We believe this bodes well for REDUCE-IT because Epadel was able to demonstrate a benefit even in a lower risk patient population, and we believe we are more likely to see a greater benefit in higher-risk patients.
EPA Exerts a Multitude of Effects beyond TG-Lowering
Although we believe based on the literature that TG-lowering does indeed have a favorable impact on cardiovascular (CV) risk, EPA may confer additional benefits beyond TG-lowering, including: inflammation, endothelial function, plaque composition, plaque fibrous cap thickness, and platelet aggregation. Effects such as antiarrhythmic effects, vasodilation, and antiproliferation have also been noted from n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids. While it is difficult to isolate each effect and determine its ultimate impact on a CV event, collectively they may exert a global and meaningful impact on CV risk that could tip the scale on an outcomes trial like REDUCE-IT in its favor. An entire review of all of its effects is beyond the scope of this report, but we highlight a few that we believe may have the most impact on outcomes: plaque regression, fibrous cap thickness, and inflammation
We have reviewed some of the latest literature on TGs and EPA, and we highlight several studies that we believe may be important in the REDUCE-IT thesis:
1) Genetic validation from two population-based studies that demonstrate that loss-of-function mutation in APOC3, which lead to significantly lower plasma TG levels and correspond with risk reductions in CV disease (both in NEJM 2014). Although these are only genetic studies and not studies that test a TG-lowering agent, we believe these studies help reinforce the relationship between TGlowering and CV benefit. EPA has been shown to reduce APOC3.
2) Post-hoc analyses of major outcomes trials, such as PROVE-IT and dal-
OUTCOMES, show that the patients with higher plasma TG correlated with
increased CV risk, most even after adjustment for covariates. Three of the (5) analyses showed that a 10 mg/dL decrement in TG reduced CV events by ~1.6%.
3) EPA may confer additional benefits beyond TG-lowering that may contribute to a CV benefit, including having positive impacts on: inflammation and plaque morphology. Recently, at AHA 2015, the CHERRY data showed that EPA + high dose pitavastatin treatment significantly reduced plaque volume v. pitavastatin alone in patients who received primary PCI.
Until REDUCE-IT Reads Out Final Analysis, JELIS is the Closest Proxy as an Outcomes Trial. We do not believe patients from Western societies should exhibit an impact on lipid parameters or on CV events any less favorable than the Japanese population.
CHERRY Data Suggests EPA May Have Favorable Effects on Plaque Regression:
At AHA 2015 in November, Ando et al. presented data from the CHERRY study investigating effects of EPA (1,800 mg/day) + high dose pitavastatin (PTV at 4 mg/day) treatment v. pitavastatin alone on coronary plaque regression and stabilization (Ando, K. et al. AHA 2015). The trial was a prospective, randomized, controlled trial that enrolled 241 patients who received primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) using IB-IVUS in 6 hospitals. The primary endpoint was changes in coronary plaque tissue characteristics via IB-IVUS (integrated backscatter intravascular ultrasound). Secondary endpoints included: 1) changes in the volume of target coronary plaques, 2) changes in the lipid, fatty acid, and inflammatory profile, and 3) major cardiovascular events (cardiac death, myocardial infarction, PCI, and coronary artery bypass grafting). 122 patients were randomized to receive EPA/PTV and 199 to receive PTV only. 121/117 were included in the safety analysis, respectively, and 97/96 were included in the primary analysis, respectively.
EPA/AA Ratio. The investigators also noted that there was a significant inverse correlation between plaque volume and percent change in EPA/AA ratio (R=-0.323, p<0.001).
Interestingly, Matsuzaki et al. noted in his study of JELIS that that patients with high EPA/AA ratios trended towards lower rates of major coronary events v. patients with low ratios (HR=0.80, p=0.113). Though the trend was not significant, the incidence of cardiac death or MI was (HR=0.58, p=0.038). It is tempting to assume that the lower rate of CV
events is tied to the plaque regression that resulted from the higher EPA/AA ratio. While low EPA/AA ratio has been identified as an independent risk factor for ACS (Serikawa, T. et al., J. Cardiol. 2014, 63, 1, 35-40), the relationship between plaque regression and ACS is not definitively established though associations have been made.
As previously discussed, low EPA/AA ratio has been identified as an independent risk factor for ACS, and the low ratio has been associated with vulnerable coronary plaque morphology (correlation with fibrous cap thickness: r=0.37, p=0.002) (Wakabayashi, Y. et al. Eur. Heart J. 2014, 35, Suppl 1, 610). They showed on multivariate analysis that low EPA/AA ratio was independently associated with thin-cap fibroatheroma.
Collectively, we believe these findings are consistent with the notion that EPA can lead to higher EPA/AA ratios that have a favorable impact on fibrous cap thickness and plaque morphology, which may have a favorable impact on CV risk
Vascepa Known to Reduce hs-CRP, a Key Marker of Inflammation:
Mog,
Seriously if you don't have the patience for LT success or willing to take the risk of 70% drop if things didn't work (ie amarin dropping to around $0.50 from current prices in case of failure), why did you invest in this stock (since you said you're Long)
Save yourself from this stress, spare your nerves and liquidate your investment.
If you are short, which personally i think is your current position, you'd be crazy on betting to generate 70% more profit (and i think you are already deep in the money and generated profits because you should have shorted long time ago) but taking the huge risk of loosing it all as the upside is tremendous and you'd be owing money to your broker when you are squeezed along others....
It is an uphill long road with various bumps and road blocks, but eventually the company will reach its final destination!!!
On a personal level, im in this stock since June 2012, close to $15 entry and i managed to drop my average to below $2.50 and im in it as i believe in the science, i follow biotechs for a long long time and the current risk/reward is amazing and hopefully next month i can add more shares as i am expecting some fresh unneeded liquidity !!
Not looking for the pennies, day to day, its been almost 4 years and won't matter another 1.5Y. As most in here i am looking for dollars and double digits dollars !!
stac, i agree
despite all this, in a super conservative estimates they still reached a $14 potential upside that's why my previous post in reply to raf that if positive i expect a much higher bo price in terms of valuation. That is if we are successful and willing to sell :)
Raf,
I think jeerio went for the $2.5Bn conservative estimates of Jefferies (not fully adjusted (25% success chance) and not including external deals...etc)
Sticking with this number he took a multiple of highest expected sales, as is the case in pharmaceuticals. 3.2x was his multiple leading to $8bn
Still to early to go into that, but if reduce it is positive, and insurance companies + doctors are on board, in addition to external deals and royalty fees, i guess the $2.5bn is a low estimate
jeerio did i get ur thinking right?
Jefferies Link;
Interesting and well detailed coverage with conservative price target of $3.50 and assuming positive reduce it and Vascepa showing a benefit on final analysis in early '18, the upside could be $14/sh. as they estimate total peak potential risk-adjusted sales of ~$1.0 billion by 2030 comprising of $391 million in sales from severe hypertriglyceridemia (unadjusted) and $627 million from mixed dyslipidemia (75% risk-discount)....ie very conservative numbers.
At this time, they only model U.S. revenues for Vascepa and do not include ex-U.S. sales estimates, including China where AMRN has recently entered into an agreement with Eddingpharm. China alone could represent a significant opportunity, and at this time represents upside to our valuation.
Good read, enjoy !!!
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1gB2YESBJV7eTJ0YlBUaExUZmc/view?usp=sharing
Jefferies Update (29 Pages);
Link to be attached soon
Assuming with a Buy; Has the Tide Finally
Turned for Amarin?
We believe off-label Vascepa promotion in mixed dyslipidemia may be beginning to bear fruit, where our analysis of TRx data suggests a steeper upward trend in recent months v. '15. Access to this population is a major source of upside, where we see opportunity of $2.5B (75% risk-discount). Focus is also on REDUCE-IT where we believe Vascepa can show a benefit on final analysis in early '18, and upside could be $14/sh. Assuming with Buy and $3.50 PT.
We have reviewed recent literature and we highlight certain studies that support it, as well as studies highlighting mechanisms where EPA may provide benefit. We expect interim in ~Sep/Oct to continue as planned, and final results in early '18 where we believe it has favorable odds.
We model peak sales of $627M in MD (75% risk-discount) but if REDUCE-IT is positive, we see fully de-risked Vascepa sales of ~$2.5B by '30.
We believe AMRN’s off-label promotion may be beginning to bear fruit, as
suggested by our analysis of the weekly TRx data. Although AMRN had begun promoting Vascepa with the ANCHOR and JELIS data in August 2015, TRx trends have remain relatively steady in 2015. However, we have noted a steeper upward trajectory in TRx in 2016. We noticed that the slope of our linear regression for Q1 (m=143) has been the highest compared to previous quarters, and the trend appeared to continue into Q2 looking at the weekly trends in April with slope increasing further when incorporating the April data (m=156) (Exhibit 2). The coefficient of determination (R2) is reasonable in our analysis (R2=0.64) which signifies a reasonable fit of the data to the regression line. We believe this could signify an uptick in Rx trends.
We currently have a positive view on whether Vascepa can show a favorable cardiovascular benefit in REDUCE-IT. At this time, we believe REDUCE-IT has a ~60% chance of succeeding, however our model more conservatively models only a ~25% chance (75% risk-discount)
Our view is that a higher baseline EPA level in the Japanese patients would have correspondingly benefitted the control group. Therefore, we believe the hurdle for the Epadel group to show a benefit with statistical significance would have been higher, not lower. We believe patients in REDUCE-IT with a lower background EPA level should derive a greater benefit.
JELIS Included Primary Prevention Patients: JELIS included both primary and secondary prevention patients (broad-based patient population), with ~5-6% of the patients having a history of myocardial infarction, ~15-16% with a history of angina pectoris, and ~5% with a history of angioplasty (CABG or PTCA). That is, most (~80%) of the patients were primary prevention patients. REDUCE-IT, on the other hand, is enrolling only secondary, high-risk patients. We believe this bodes well for REDUCE-IT because Epadel was able to demonstrate a benefit even in a lower risk patient population, and we believe we are more likely to see a greater benefit in higher-risk patients.
EPA Exerts a Multitude of Effects beyond TG-Lowering
Although we believe based on the literature that TG-lowering does indeed have a favorable impact on cardiovascular (CV) risk, EPA may confer additional benefits beyond TG-lowering, including: inflammation, endothelial function, plaque composition, plaque fibrous cap thickness, and platelet aggregation. Effects such as antiarrhythmic effects, vasodilation, and antiproliferation have also been noted from n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids. While it is difficult to isolate each effect and determine its ultimate impact on a CV event, collectively they may exert a global and meaningful impact on CV risk that could
tip the scale on an outcomes trial like REDUCE-IT in its favor. An entire review of all of its effects is beyond the scope of this report, but we highlight a few that we believe may have the most impact on outcomes: plaque regression, fibrous cap thickness, and inflammation
13F Update
Firms started releasing their 13F, so far 29 updated their holdings as of 31/03/2016
Total Holdings of these 29 firms increased by 4.32% so far
31/12/15: 3,382,975
31/03/16: 3,529,067
Notable changes among these 29 releases;
- BLACKROCK FUND ADVISORS with an increase of 11.05% equivalent to 228,088 with a new total of 2,293,101 shares
- JEFFERIES GROUP LLC initiating a new position with 70,000 shares (small amount i would say, but good to initiate a new purchase)
- ACADIAN ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC selling out their position of 122,620 shares
- AIRAIN LTD selling out their position of 59,855 shares
- The rest (25 releases) are small increases or decreases or no change at all with a positive total increase of around 30,000 shares
I know it is still early and Mog i am not pumping anything, just keeping you guys updated. 31/12 releases totaled around 94, so we are still far from getting a clear idea about appetite on this stock
Short Interest Update: -2.33%
Short Interest @ lowest level since 15-March-2012
29/04/16: 16,064,992 Change: -383,470
15/04/16: 16,448,462
Shorts/Manipulation/Fail to Deliver;
I just had a look at Fail to Deliver Data via their website, astonishing numbers.
Guys your opinion is highly recommended, but WTF !!!
Hows is it ok with the SEC, shouldn't there be an investigation or something...!!
Fails To Deliver Data summarized by Years (Link below will show the excel sheet, 2 sheets: Summary + Data). Total in 6Years & 3M = 42,073,280 SHARES FAILED TO BE DELIVERED
Year 2010: 4,782,324 (Shares failed)
Year 2011: 5,496,853 (Shares failed)
Year 2012: 9,603,198 (Shares failed)
Year 2013: 9,203,239 (Shares failed)
Year 2014: 8,533,480 (Shares failed)
Year 2015: 3,997,510 (Shares failed)
Year 2016: 456,676 (Shares failed) up to 14/03/2016
Looking forward for you views
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jOp7cqSUAl1TR1zKjmfv9T6QUKkqmti2FwFZxkmgljo/edit?usp=sharing