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Angelo, your estimates were pretty good, which confirms the solidity of your model.
here the official numbers
foalin total TRX dollars, PAR Pharma,
jan 2017: 5.12Mln
feb 2017: 6.30Mln
now I see the path ! you are right. many thanks Seventh !!
wimus, reverse engeneering the Focalin sales numbers I believe 10-11% is the number (doog confirmed it via the Angelo spreadsheets)
There is big volatility from month to month, sept looks like +14% vs august which was +28% vs july, while we had a steady decrease from march 7.4mln to july 5.19Mln
difficult to see a path or an intelligible dynamic
Focalin XR - PAR sales
it looks like a good September
we are about to have the new monthly high (previous was march @ 7.4mln)
TOTAL TRX dollars
August was 6.69Mln
Sept weekly data (as of 29th Sept) already sum up to 7.77Mln
Ytd total sales are at 57.25mln
Angelo, other numbers for your spreadsheets
Latest Seroquel Data - - Angelo, you can put them on work
Source: Symphony Health Solutions
Total TRX count
29.09.2017 22.09.2017 15.09.2017
653 658 615
Total TRX dollars
29.09.2017 22.09.2017 15.09.2017
463'584 453'482 400'631
PS
sorry fred, I couldn't resist LoL
Samsa, you maybe right. It seems very plausible
doog, the new name request sounded strange to me.
difficult to say why, one can only guess: a sort of marketing advise to have the product perceived as different from oxy by the consumer ?
you can also consider this explanation valid in case of a partnership with Purdue, which will after that sell a product with a different name.
Anyway just guessing on my side.
wimike,
look like serious buying; nice to see a squeeze happening end of today. I believe the shorters will try theri best in the last trading minutes.
Samsa,
1- yes, Purdue can sue Cigna, but they now have time running against them, at lest on this side (the more time passes before having a final decision and the less oxycontin is sold via the CIGNA users). if just another of the big insurers follows then it can become interesting for IPCI
2- competition could try to take advantage, but I give more weight to having Purdue as a partner (potentially speaking) then being 6-9 months behind a competitor; Purdue commercial power is impressive.
3- IPCI management (LoL) being unable to strategically address issues and opportunities is something they NEED to change immediately
Sure this decision (CIGNA's) could be a big catalyst, more so if other insurer do follow (which is likely to me).
This should put some pressure for the first time to Purdue; delay tactics are becoming no more the best route for them !!
If IPCI is not a bunch of romantic scientists (which still has to be proven for us shareholders) I see a partnership as a win-win, I would say a natural outcome.
I remember one year ago when writing with Samsa I more than once indicated as IPCI should have partnered with Purdue, BEFORE AdComm.
Also likely a total different story going for a Rexista final approval with Purdue already partnered...(someone as wheezul would receive a special courtesy visit before appearing in front of any possible AdComm).
by the way...is there going to be another AdComm once the reviewed NDA will be submitted under the new FDA requirements?
And my last point: COLL has a mkt cap of 330Mln, revenue as of 30th june 2017 of 7.4mln, EPS -3.66.
Samsa,
long time since our last exchange.
I believe forward guidance is more important; question is: are they going to start a new course and begin inform shareholders ?
Likely the CNBC consensus is heavier than the single Analyst estimate.
would love to see new strategic info delivered in occasion of Q results.
Thanks Fred, Wednesday I will be back in office and try.
Very kind of you
I have it, what kind of query do you use? With BI I can get to Bloomberg intelligence, then I can search for Quieta.... But I cannot find the tables you are kindly posting here
Fred, are those data included in standard Bloomberg package or is it an add-on pay service?
I tried to retrieve them but I wasn't able via my standard package
Looks like me and you are the only one pointing on the possible big surprise coming from Ranexa.
Still no digging about the Canadian health pending approvals, hope to see something unexpected from that side as well.
Friday was again a demonstration of how well the stock is being controlled: 20k to push it down 8 cents...and game done.
We will need much more than Seroquel sales to stop the manipulation. Jmho
Anyway Angelo, thanks so much for the spreadsheets
I believe mallinckrodt called their man into FDA and asked for a check on ipci Andas and they went for the most likely to be approved in a reasonable time.
I forgot in my previous msg to express my deepest disregard for the keppra and gluco unfruitful approval
Wimus, I believe you are not considering lobbying and corruption at FDA level.
1- Rexista filing was deemed complete. FDA likely agreed a path with IPCI to just go for the IV and then have the other 2 follow Futher studies. Ipci incompetency, AdComm paid members, FDA burocracy and complacency made the disaster happen.
2- generics being stuck and stonewalled by FDA is object of a myriad of articles and political chatting. So, yes, maybe ipci didn't something properly, but hey, 5 years or more is just an insult. Big pharmaa do know how to protect their creatures. We are talking about billions, so no surprise.
3- the major mistake ipci made relates to the going solo idea for Rexista. Should they had it partnered with Mallinckdrot or Purdue when in phase II...well...likely filing and AdComm a totally different story.
Nasdaq compliance has also the 1.00 $ minimum price threshold.
There are companies with more than 35mln mkt which are required to take action after price stays for 6 months below 1.
RS has a neutral effect in terms of mkt cap.
Investment case - why I am here
Value drivers: the 2 NDA partnered, the technology delivery platform licensed
Andas should offer financial balance to avoid new shares issues.
While I can try to assign a value to the current Andas component (I indicated a 4$ 12 months tp based on a status quo scenario), I expect the company to deliver on value drivers above. Real money is there, where real means reteriment for some of us.
I won't be shooting numbers here on possible outcome for the 3 value drivers.
IF company delivers on the 3 by 2018 I can IMAGINE many of us remembering our suffered due diligence on Andas revenue with a wide smile.
This is why I am here, and likely many of us. Still willing to wait for the strategic change, still sure the ruote to get there will make me full of scares and resilient to disappointments.
Buongiorno Angelo, sometimes human nature leads to disputes which make the big picture blurred or even not seen at all.
Hope to hear some updates after Q3 results.
I have a feeling we will get pristiq approval before year end (I remember numbersarefun a while back pointing it as the most likely).
Ranexa is not considered at all, but I think it could arrive in 2months.
Another point often not considered: Canada market, for which some approval is pending.
Why don't we get down to bottom line? EPS should give us an element for future company valuation.
Based on current products on the market we see analysts putting out a 12m forward EPS of 0.4.
Let's cut it in half for a conservative scenario.
Then let's pick the s&p AVG p/e of 18. (P/e for biotechs is much more)
Shares count @ 31mln.
We should get 6 $, 12months price target.
This without further Andas, no partnership, no Rexista.
Let's reduce it for contingencies by 1/3. 4$
At the end of the day, this is a very basic scenario. But it is a numeric case, very conservative, for the long investor.
No speculative component essentially
I explicitly wanted to be as basic as possible
Nasdaq. Using a usd account so that I don't care about fx
No, one of the best posters in this board would leave either way.
We can dissent and keep our ideas while being constructive. It is not a competition among us.
Please.. both of you
Yes it is possible, but an offer right now will happen at 10% at least discount to mkt price. Then the dilution effect will drive the price lower.
Then you will hav the new liet motive, from they need cash to they will need a rs to gain Nasdaq compliance.
If they also decide to offer some warrants we are not going anywhere.
I therefore stress my opinion that, while respecting your idea and fred's, only a raise with a partner will help. Otherwise we are fucked...in terms of share price, which is what makes us shareholders happy or ruined.
Fred, Company indicated 9months for the studies in the recent update.
No mention on cost.
If it wasn't for the blue dye we would likely have had a tentative approval for the IV.
" and we do not expect they will impact our anticipated commercialization timeline for Oxycodone ER.”
Commercialisation timeline can be possible only if the have a pre-agreement with a partner. Jmho
Material... could just be FDA decision?
Material... could just be FDA decision?
Odd, agreed. Maybe the received FDA decision and they want to PR with some other related development attached?
Otherwise better release the FDA decision Friday night if it is bad.
Let's see. Fingers crossed
Thanks Angelo, I needed a message like yours
Just to be clear. I am long ipci and will likely stay until end of 2018.
But we can make all the possible analysis and hypothesis, I just reduce everything to 1 single aspect: we have no buyers.
I'm not talking today, but after mkn deal we just went down, after NDA filing just down, after AdComm...furiously down without even a technical rebound.
Out there nobody is willing to buy this stock, which we consider nonsensically undervalued.
This is not only frustrating but makes you wonder...who is the smartest, me or Mr market???
Why we don't see an institution or even a single hnwi buy 5% of a company at levels we consider a bargain?
We have seen company revenue kicking while share price falling down...are we sure with two more Andas approved we see major buying , able to crash the back of that small group of shorters??
other option could be delist from NASDAQ and keep TSX; disappointing to say the least, but if they want to regain NASDAQ compliance they have increase mkt cap and share price:
find a partner would be the best solution.
I feel an approval of any other pending ANDA would be a good occasion for cover and re-short - as has been over the last 12 months.
IPCI management has demonstrated a total ineptitude when it comes to stock markets.
we have to pray the don't decide for RS, convertible debt or dilution with warrants to a non strategic partner...then the delisting will be in the facts.
As I said Yesterday, if they a bullett in their gun, monday is the time to use it. They have to break the manipulation from happening again.
wimike, the game is so easy for them that one cannot understand how the company has been making this happen for so long.
given we have ZERO buyers, and so it has been all over the last 12 months, any day could be fine for them to destroy the stock...
we read those calling for 0.50...and likely it will be, even if I don't believe while I'm writing it.
disgusting and inevitable (for a company like IPCI).
fred, I would use your list as a shareholder guidance for the next 12 months.
Samsa, I was trying myself to get you into the game. LoL
Well, if proves are substantiated for market manipulation there is severe conviction.
Priceless
A for the effort Angelo means your plausible hypothesis should be out of target.
Go jack142,
Go jack...
"some dilution is inevitable. But hopefully they are smart about it."
that's the point...smart...in terms of timing and offering terms.
- IF new shares are going to a strategic partner, then be it
- IF new shares are going to the market, the offering will likely have the terms of a toxic financing. = means they are desperate = means we will start crying for real
having 2 ANDAs approved but not partnered, having a potentially great NDA (Regabatin), an ANDA (Ranexa) which could be approved before year end and another ANDA under the Mallinkrodt package as well..
...they don't need to dilute NOW!! with the stock likely plummeting, as you are correctly warning about ?
then he could be the worst CEO of year winner, without any context required
"He should go begging to take Rexista on and pay for further testing with ZERO upfront money"
we are on the same page: go to Purdue, partner Rexista, no upfront, just cover HAP/HAL studies and licensing Agreement, trial is over, go to FDA together with Purdue...and ask for the soonest the possible approval.
and say bye bye to shorters, cause Rexista in Purdue hands will be a cash machine
I would even be willing to have HAP/HAL studies on IPCI