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Zum -
According to management, RI won't be analysed for futility at either interim.
So it can't be ruled out until the very end.
G-
But the company will be able to resubmit only if RI data becomes available which requires interim stop.
If a recommendation is to continue, resubmission is not an option as the company will continue to be blinded to the data. Moreover, futility won't be ruled out either as interim won't analyze for futility.
G, If you don't mind what your theory of class 1 resubmission is exactly about?
Raf, I suggest you read the last EC transcript. JT discussed this. According to him Amarin will receive a sheet of paper from DMC with two boxes "continue" and "stop". One of those boxes will be check marked.
Simple like that.
They sold in Q1 right before the run up. Not a very smart move.
They will get those share back on 9/12.
Do you expect RI halt at fist or second interim?
Maybe because Amarin knows that DMC meeting is set for the first week of September. Just speculating.
Conversion of notes to shares will take place on 9/12.
I wonder what will happen if DMC makes stop recommendation prior to September 12th.
Kiwi,
Don't you think this is what those investors actually wanted "to be exposed" to huge gains if RI is stopped in a month from now?
Although this appear to be Amarin's decision. I strongly doubt Amarin would push this conversation down major investors' throat if they saw investors are not super happy about it.
Or we stop paying interest and lose our patents as a result, which I highly doubt will happen any time soon??
No, it's not. We still have a horrible loan from 2012 collateralized by our patents.
Chas,
Good analysis. I have only one thing to add. The upcoming Interim will be analysing not 60 closer to 70% of total events.
This should work in our favor.
With the DB is still not locked. It will be more like 70% at 1st interim and 90% at second.
Purchased back with 10% discount the trading shares I sold at $3.30 and some more. We should be clear now to cont. Interim run up.
FFS,
Sometimes it's better for follow your gut not charts. Now I feel better about going all in again (with even more shares).
Just like I predicted. Can't blame management. It wouldn't be smart to do not raise money now, after nice run up and ahead of the RI interim.
I keep 100k in my core account till RI results are out and probably even longer.
I also trade ~50k shares in my trading account. Now my trading account is all in cash after I sold AMRN booking over 100% gains. I will repurchase those shares if stock falls. If not, I'm happy with my recent gains and 100k shares I still own.
Marzan,
This would be awesome. We certainly deserved this after everything we've been through.
If not, well I'm here at least till 2018.
FFS,
You'll be surprised but I'm doing better than you in terms of gains.
One more thing the difference between me and you is that I will hold my core AMRN position no matter what but you'll be long gone if stock corrects more than you can stomach.
You'll take whatever gains you will have left and run for the cover.
Marzan,
Absolutely nothing. The stock has great potential. I just don't think the skies are as blue right now as volcano guy tries to paint them. Only RI stop for overwhelming efficacy will shoot us to the moon. Nothing else.
FFS,
You are not only ignoring basic facts. But you also make up facts that suit your volcano theory.
My basic point was there were no recent upgrades and what you stated was incorrect. I also started that RSI is high which typically signals overbought condition, dilution is a possibility, the addition of 2nd interim and management's direction to DMC to do not recommend stop unless meaningful statistical improvement in secondary end points most likely means no stop in September-October.
Yes it is obvious that Institutions are stepping in. But if you didn't notice the volume has been dropping for the two consecutive sessions and I expect this trend to continue next week.
I also told you that I'm long and have
I never ever shorter AMRN. I didn't cry like you predicting a quick drop to under $1 when SP pulled from $1.96 to $1.50 after Q1ER. Instead I held strong because I know the true value of this company but we are not out of the woods yet.
The facts that you continue to ignore facts and keep pushing your volcano scenario is simply rediculous and tells a lot about the type of person you are.
First, no serious investors care about analyst opinions.
Second, there were no recent (post Q2 earning) upgrades on AMRN.
Third, you probably don't remember simply because you were not around at the time when so called analysts had TPs as high as $36 on AMRN while we tanked from $12 to $2.
Michael,
The volume picked up last Friday. But started to decline after the EC on Thursday.
08/05/2016 - 3,557,023
08/04/2016 - 8,918,680
08/03/2016 - 15,311,590
08/02/2016 - 16,657,060
08/01/2016 - 11,618,840
07/29/2016 - 11,521,440
I agree with you 100%.
March 2015.
FFS,
Yes, I don't post much. The amount of shares you own doesn't need to correspond to the number of posts. Btw I certainly don't remember you posting here prior to March 2015.
Speaking of negativity. Remember your awful prediction of SP going under $1 just few months ago after Q1 ER? I called you "flip flopper" back then. Now remember me better?
G,
Our knowledge is based on 10-Q:)
Hopefully you are right. The company either counts on early stop in September or has something else in the works. Assuming that something else does not involve secondary markets and dilution of current shareholders.
So we close year with $40mil COH and what's next? Another 6 months and COH drops to $15-20mil. That's poor risk management. Company has to maintain cash reserves in case something bad happens. For example, disruption in supply, product recall due to bad batch, global recession, regulatory changes, unforseen expenses, etc.
"who do you think would be brave enough to short this stock" - you'll be surprised to find out how many "brave" idiots are out there. Some of them drove pps to $0.78 in 2015 and to $1.24 just 6 months ago.
The good thing funds are buying and it means any pullback will be limited.
"The management is a smart one and I keep my faith in them - they did not talk about raising money". This is because if they even remotely mention potential dilution the stock will drop like a rock same second.
"We been thru worst times and we didn't sell then rather added and averaged, so, we are not going to sell now thru the end" - I agree with you and I'm holding my 100k shares too.
"RSI doesn't work anymore" - this is exactly what some random DT posted back in 2015 when stock jumped to $3.30.
6 months later that DT was long gone and many longs were upset that they didn't sell.
I learned my lesson hard way. October 2013 was a nightmare for me. But I recovered and learned to manage my expectations.
Again, I'm 100% confident that the future is bright and Amarin will come back big time. I just do not believe in volcanoes and stocks going up in straight line. Pullbacks happen and they are healthy. We had two of them already since this run up started in February. It would be naive to think there won't be another one.
Raf,
Just my gut feeling. From what I see management wants strong RI data. Fist, to secure FDA approval. Second, to support additional indications and have LT data on secondary end points.
This sucks short term, but makes perfect sense long term.
I also think RI will be stopped after 2nd interim analysis next summer.
FFS,
You are truly funny. I don't need charts because I've in this stock for 6 years. I remember everything. The approval, NCE, GIA, ADCOM, and the run up last year on which I made $100k in my trading account.
You are too quick to jump to conclusions. I didn't sell my position. I'm plan on holding to 2018 and beyond, if necessary. And of course I don't f.ng short.
As I said I've been in AMRN long enough and through some very unpleasant events to blindly believe in volcanos and blue skies ahead ignoring everything else.
The COH will drop to some rediculous levels if mgmt waits another year to dilute as you suggested. They need to address this issue now.
FFS,
The stock didn't run for 5 weeks back then. The run was less than a week. I remember it very well. Btw it ran on higher volume than now.
I believe the LT uptreand is still in tact but we're due to small correction. Just like we pulled from $1.96 and $2.30.
The stock is overbought, volume is decreasing, we can't break and stay above mulitiyear resistance $2.35, IMO chances of early stop in September decreased with mgmt adding 2nd interim and secondary endpoints, dilution is a strong possibility.
Maybe. I don't want to argue. One observation though. The last time RSI was that high the stock pulled from $3.30 to $2 and finally bottomed at $1.27.
This time could be different. Will see.
I didn't say the stock is overvalued. I said it's overbought currently. There's a difference. We already had two pullbacks since this run-up started in February. I fully expect the third one. But the trend is still up.
I hope you are right. But with RSI over 90 and dropping volume it's an invitation for shorts.
Not to mention possibility of dilution. Mgmt has to prepare in case the recommendation is to continue RI.
And RSI of 90+ doesn't concern you at all? I think we are due to a pullback. Especially as we struggle to stay above multiyear resistance @$3.35.
Markets are getting into overbought territory also. Next pullback will due to anticipation of the interest hike in September.