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Gleno... Just sent foot this article which I think is an interesting read:
He basically thinks the recession isn't going to happen til after the 2008 elections and the gov/fed is going to do all they can to contain it til then. In addition he thinks there will be a 1/2 point cut next week and a total of a 2 pt cut by next year.
I though we'd may be get a 1/4 pt cut but 1/2 pt? That's ridiculous.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/WhyWeNeedARecessionSoon.aspx
Foot this is an interesting read if you have time:
I like the heroin type analogy and the analogy that our bankers are like drug dealers. But 2% cut in the next year seems absurd.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/WhyWeNeedARecessionSoon.aspx
"Just as heroin dealers are in business to sell drugs, banks are in business to make loans. Their financial engineers will do everything in their power to force debt down consumers' throats -- and then find ways to keep them on the hook for it as long as possible. Although they talk a big story about encouraging responsibility in borrowing, they actually want consumers to max out their credit cards and to take large home-equity lines of credit, small-business loans and car loans, with the goal of having customers pay interest as long as humanly possible.
Now you would think that ultimately all this money has to be paid back, and you would be correct. With consumer debt-to-savings ratios stretched to historic levels, that time should be now. But that is where the Jedi tricks come in. Because the administration in Washington knows that if all those loans are called in and consumers can't make good on them, there will be hell to pay. And a nasty recession just won't do in an election year.
Election tactics
So the government is in the process of twisting the arms of Federal Reserve Board members to lower interest rates by as much as 2 percentage points over the next year, including potentially a whopping half-point cut next week. That will allow banks to go back to one of their favorite recession-delaying ploys: encouraging debt-strapped consumers to refinance their loans at lower rates."
"W" forming on the 60min SPX charts. Postive MACD.
No R3s that I can find on CBOE. Checked CME but shows yesterdays (10/22) trade date.
After hours down with Amazon only beating by a penny.
http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/del/globex.html
Foot,
R3's working. Gap and crap. If we can finish the day green or flat that would be still a positive if we can consolidate, then with FOMC and ToM coming up that could set us up for more up.
$NAMO close to bottom but still has some room to go down/turn down.
I think R3 in the ST is fine so long as it allows us to get that MACD Divergence so that we can get a true "W" bottom. But there has been rallies in the past without a big "W".
At least the New highs improved from this morning. When I looked around 11AM there was only 9. Now it closed at 30.
Is this trin for real? "11" Scam always says anything above 5 is rare or is that dick arms himself?
BTW - I'm not in long on the QQQQs or QLD. There are too many gaps to fill and it hasn't corrected enough. In with MVV, GE, and some energy, and my 401K is all foreign Asian/European big companies or with large international exposure.
May be I should re-read my own sig. below.
Yeah I know it's really risky. But it looks like we're at support for a lot of things.
I guess it would've been a smarter move to scale in but I was a bit annoyed at myself during the August 16th rally. I only went in about 1/2 and before the fed meeting in Sept., I sold part of that leaving only 1/3 of my money in the markets. (BTW I'm still long in the 401K stuff.) 67% of the other stuff is non-401k stuff but a bigger chunk of my money. But the total that I've put in long is about 70% which includes my 401K from August 16/17.
Futures are improving a little. It's not as bad as earlier today . It's about 2:00 AM EST, 11:00 PM PST.
S&P 500 -8.80 1497.00 10/22 1:56am S&P 500 FUTURES
Fair Value 1548.49 10/18 7:17pm
Difference* -51.49
NASDAQ -15.25 2134.50 10/22 1:35am NASDAQ FUTURES
Fair Value 2206.02 10/18 7:17pm
Difference* -71.52
Dow Jones -81.00 13479.00 10/22 1:45am
DJIA Contracts
I went long also with a big position (70% of my money) in MVV, GE, and some energy. So I hope we bounce or I'll be eating ramen and potatoes. (Just kidding) But it would really suck if we have another blood bath on Monday.
We are at the 50ma on the DJIA, SPX, $MID and $RUT. Although the rut is bearish under the 200ma.
Looks like we are going to break one way or the other. The compression meter is way down and the summation tick is showing oversold at the moment. (Break up after OE?)
More stuff from LBR:
Compression Meter:
Low readings indicate market is poised for larger breakout. High readings indicate market is ready to enter consolidation period.
LBR Summation Tick:
Tick Summation Index based on hourly readings. High readings indiacte overbought while low readings indicate oversold. Bottoms tend to be sharp V-type reversals while tops are more often formed on a loss of momentum or divergences.
Foot,
Do you have any measured moves on your charts lately?
LBR put one out yesterday at 12:45PM EST but I didn't get a chance to check her site til today.
COP does look like it's forming a cup and handle but is this worrisome?
(just edited) Opps... nevermind. I was reading the wrong article.
Heh... Just moved to seattle. I got the tail end of a nice Indian summer as the called it up here. Sunny til end of September. The first couple days of Oct. was ok But, the last two weeks I could've been Noah. The sun did peak out of the clouds for 10mins today. So that was a treat. But then back to more clouds and rain.
My friend in Portland told me it's been raining cats and dogs down there. So I know Gleno must not be playing any golf.
Does todays candle on the NDX and SPX look like a hammer to you? (like it's trying to hammer out a near term bottom?)
Yeah I agree, I got out of SDS 10 mins ago. I wish I wasn't so greedy. I couldn't get them to hit my limit sell price. It was just .05 above each time. Now it's dropped .35 since I sold em. Still made +.70 on them but that just pisses me off.
I think we bounce from here. Everything seems to be at the 20 day so it should be some support.
I believe from reading scam's post he said to check both places.
Even in his post yesterday about R3 on the clearstation board he mentions R3 from the CME. Some days he'll have an R3 from the CBOE.
Foot,
That's kind of strange. Why does the file have today's date, 10/15, but when I opened it, it says 10/12 for the trade date. I noticed scam said on the other board R3 on Friday. Then he said LOL and 3 don't werk. (refering to today).
Bernanke didn't seem to say all too rosy things about the economy.
"Bernanke Says Housing Slump Will Probably Be a 'Significant Drag' on Economic Growth". But then again he did say that the feds will be in watch and see mode. I guess basically he's going to do what he can to prop everything up.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071015/bernanke.html
Yeah... I know that's why I put in a type stop. Hopefully they don't gap past the stop. Anyhow... even your spx chart shows that it's rolling over. MACD on your chart just crossed, RSI is below the trendline, and the $SPX candle is out of your trendline. I know I might be in a little to early but I guess we shall see.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=23707224
Foot,
In SDS from last Thursday afternoon. I was debating whether to close my trade at 49.75 today, but decided to take a gamble with the Brad turn date. I have a tight stop at 49.25. In at 48.95.
After reading your post about the SDS and banks a while back I concur about banks being the weak link.
That was early on in after market trading, 30 mins after the close, the ndx was +10 and about +5 or +6 pts on the spx. But now that I'm looking at it, 9:52 PM PST futures are down.
After hours is showing a pretty good up move. I wonder if they will take it back up tomorrow. Everything pretty much went out of the Lower BB today. VXO just crossed up for the macd.
I was already in the money for the past few days. Now I only made enough to buy a bag of peanuts. So I wasn't worried with the trailing stop because the broker moves the stop up or down accordingly in the direction of your trade.
But geez... I was wondering about when they were going to get back to the good ol' coast to coast. It must be because of OE, gotta love that volatility. Opened up some SDS 15 mins ago. I'll try the stop method again once the price moves up. Maybe I'll do a .75 stop instead. Not sure yet.
Man,
I check in after 4 hours and all my stops got hit. Oh well. I made out with a big fat .50 profit for past few days. LOL... I guess I didn't tighten my stops enough. Trailing stop was at $2 for MVV and SSO.
Foot,
You're funny. BTW - I must be out of touch with the news. I just saw an article about Illegals and gang rapes, etc. It's pretty shocking. "The study found approximately 240,000 illegal-immigrant sex offenders reside in the United States – while 93 sex offenders and 12 serial sexual offenders come across U.S. borders illegally every day."
Geez! In addition they say that because no one will talk about it, it gets basically pushed under the rug for fear that people will hate illegal immigrants.
I don't understand how if I personally used someone else's ID/Driver License, Social Security Card, etc. I would be thrown in jail for identity theft/falsification of data but yet when an illegal does it, it's not a problem. It's also not a problem for them to jump over the fence and commit a felony but yet if I trespass I can get thrown in jail. Is that double standard or what? They have more rights than me a U.S. citizen.
Are those mutual funds that you reduced your positions in? I was telling foot that I decided to start using trailing stops since I can't watch the market as much with the new job. Traveling, etc.
I started using conditional orders, etc. ie- if NDX drops a certain percentage than buy this many shares at this price. Then I'd put in either a bracket order, if it hits this price out right sell or sell if it hits the lower trailing stop number.
Foot,
The markets is nuts. There's no logic in it vs. fundamentals. That's why I try to tune out all the news, CNBC, etc. I've been so busy at work. Traveling, etc. Anyhow, I put in some orders during the latest dips to go long with tight stops. I decided to actually try bracket orders and trailing stops. I didn't know that with trailing stops it hides your order until your stop is hit. Then your brokerage firm sends your market order in unlike a regular stop or a limit sell order where everyone can see your order. Well the other benefit is it trails a stock price up or down within a % you set or a $ amount that you set. So that's good too.
BTW it should be interesting to see what happens next week. It's OE and a Brad Turn date. I may have to tighten the stops even further.
I haven't been able to do much with the new job. I'm going to be traveling all next week too. So I'll have to see how things play out sometime next week. I may have to start looking long term again at the daily and weekly charts.
Foot did you close your SDS position? Market seems too strong to short at the moment. We'll see what happens after End of Month rampo.
Foot, I still think that on Monday or Tuesday we go down in order to fill that Friday gap up on the $NDX. So, I am leaning towards consolidate/slightly down on Monday/Tuesday. Then rampup the end of month 401K deposits and all.
Plus with the latest up move on the 60min $NDX charts, the MACD is still down. 15min charts also show slight down on the MACD. LT daily and weekly charts however are still bullish.
Been working too much the last 2 days to watch the market intraday. Hopefully I can watch a little Monday morning before I go to work.
I was thinking about investing in FXI during the recent August bottom. That thing has been on a tear again. August low $111.21 closed yesterday at $168.49. 51.5% in 4 1/2 weeks? LOL...
Heh... Gleno, that won't even cover the rise in gasoline and utilities. In Maryland they de-regulated last year. Electricity spiked 50% and same with Nat gas. My neighbors who didn't put in energy efficient windows like me and insulation paid $450 a month in the winter from $300 last year.
Mine was a little higher by $50.
Foot,
Just got a chance to check in. Working from the West coast makes things hard to watch. Anyhow, I put an order right at the gap of the QID (41.45) before I left for work this morning. Looks like they ended up filling the gap. Got out with a -.35 on the QID. At least it was a small position (300 shares). But it's a good lesson learned. With the daily/weekly trend up don't scalp unless it's gonna be quick and for pennies, nickle or a dime. Need to check the charts when I get home, reassess and figure out about the next couple days.
That's my thoughts for long term stuff. I have 50% still in cash in my 401K and roth from August 16/17th when I started to scale back in. Been holding those but I'll look to the 20ma test on the daily to start scaling some more longs back in.
Be do you mean you entered at 40.97 today?
Yeah... The gap up was expected. But I thought we'd at least get a fill the gap. Oh well. I can't watch much today so I'll put an order to exit my loss around the gap. First loss in a while and it does suck, but I knew it was a dangerous trade yesterday. Good thing I only bought 300 shares of QID and not 1000. Being long in GE the last couple of days made up for the loss yesterday. It's breaking out to new highs too at 42 now.
Yeah... I know Omandan. That's all I am expecting in the first 30min/hour tomorrow morning. The trend has and is still up on the Weekly and Daily. I was just going to do a quick scalp/counter trend trade. I know it's dangerous. But, I was so annoyed with not being able to get in right after the FOMC announcement that I wasn't going to chase it higher. I'll probably bail first thing tomorrow morning even if I breakeven or make +10 or +20 cents. You would think with OE though that they tried to go coast to coast not just a huge ramp up.
Still long on my 401k and Roth IRA since August.
I got in a little to early on my qid position. But I still think we reverse tomorrow. A lot of out of BB stuff. VXO is out of BB, SPX is out of BB, Trin is at a near-term top.
Trin says near term top.
Gleno,
I guess you're right. Should've waited a little longer. Looks like we are getting the final up into the close. Could've gotten a better entry. If that is so the next day pattern should be down.
no prob. Changed my mind about not trading til next Monday/Tuesday in order to see the overall trend. Decided to buy some QIDs for 41.80 a few mins ago. Should be a down day tomorrow according to the fed after day pattern.