is...itchy
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An outside interesting tidbit is the TED (the difference between the interest rates on interbank loans and T-bills). It has been rising and the chart is breaking out. This is NOT good for equities. I am so darned skeptical of today's action.
I'm not sold on this rally, I am going long VXX soon.
Volume still at temple today...
I suspect 195.50 is tested today. Will be interesting to see how it holds.
yes sir
Sterling.
I have CHX on my system, they always flash big bids and offers. Probably an algo of some sorts. I believe it is the Chicago.
Volume could be at Temple today too. Jewish New Year.
Gut is saying breakdown coming here soon. All the bursts are grinds. I think the opening candle down tells the story today. I am seeing steady selling, like someone is unwinding. We are at the support from Friday from where they ripped it higher into the close. A breakdown from here should rip it right through 194.50ish and straight to 193.60. If there is strong volume with it, then we could be ugly the next day or 2. Just my thoughts.
Growth in China’s investment and factory output missed forecasts in August, indicating a further cooling in the country’s economy that is likely to prompt the government to roll out more support measures. - NY Times (today)
imiloa, you couldn't have warned me before? lol Jesus Christmas, I'm just gonna let it go. I'm trying to run a simple bootleg play and the other team is breaking down the wind velocity, how dry or wet the turf is, and if the QB got some nookie before the game. Send me a contact since I don't have membership. Thanks for the heads up though. lol
BET, i am not a full fledged member, but I am in 190's in Oct and lower in Nov. Send me a contact and I can tell you what else.
There is one caveat to all of this Dollar, anemic volume. The sellers stepped away and bots took over for a final surge. The selling in this overall market has been institutions. I am going with my institutional trading experience here along with what I see on the charts. I was of the belief that 204 would be hit, but I am now less and less confident as each day goes by. This looks like a complete setup for failure. Yes, I am short, but I am far out on the majority of puts, so short term swings higher only create opportunity. I'm not specifically talking about you, so please don't misconstrue my opinion, just adding my view which has been fairly accurate. Also, with the fed, it does not matter what they do. All I see coming is deflation, which will be the death nail down the road for the economy.
Again, I am just giving an opposing opinion, not trying to say your points are not valid because they are strong, valid points. I just think that things are going to give and we go lower before heading any higher. The best way to describe it is the Bulls need to grind it higher and the Bears let them. I have seen this in individual stocks many time before. Food for thought, that's all I am trying to show.
Have a great weekend guys, next week will be interesting.
closed below that 10 DMA once again. Got above it and failed. The imiloa effect is still, well, in effect :)
understood. That is what I thought you were inferring. if we go back to 194, we aren't going back up, we go lower. Obviously that is my opinion. Cue the snazzy jazz beat!
Risk, can you calrify what type of doji? I am presuming bearish, just would like a little more in depth though. Thanks in advance bud!
I'm talking about August 24th when we were down 1000 on the open.
Risk, the next leg down won't show up in the futures in the pre market... We saw on that Monday that the futures gave everyone advanced notice to be on alert. The next one will be after the open. Down a 100 or 200, then WHAM, down a shirtload more than a 1000. That's just the way I see it. Anyone else (without getting into a pissing match) agree? I've been around a while, learned a lot the hard way. The next move down will not give advanced notice. Thoughts? I respect many of your opinions.
If you really want to grab your cajones, play UVXY. I am long a lot, it could give you the shakes with the swings.
I guess my gut was a little bit correct.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=116843095
10 DMA... we are below it. It hasn't been able to close above it 2 days in a row since this death dance started. And to note, it as only closed above it 2 x. The Imiloa Theory!!
up to my ankles... ride the snake risk...
Much appreciated bud! That is the one I usually follow, but wanted to actually watch the event. Fascinating stuff.
I'm watching it, though I am behind since i paused it. Really cool stuff but if this market gets pummeled, no one will be able to afford any of it. :)
Considering the smackdown NFLX had yesterday, it was due to rebound. I don't know why but 196 is sticking in my head for today. Just a gut feeling. I do think we retest 194 in the coming days.
I think you will be very right bud.
I agree with your thesis. It will be interesting to see where we are by Friday.
Today was definitely a surprise, but I took it as an opportunity to get puts on the close. Long 194 puts for the 18th expiration. Also got long some VXX. Hope everyone made out well today. I must say, this volume was a poor today. What is China going to do tonight? Say that they hired Jackie Chan to beat up anyone who shorts? That's about all they can do.
risk, you think SPY has a full diaper?
Look at what happened to China on the big gap open on Sunday night. Came right back down to earth. This is a sellers market right now.
not if there is global deflation. Which is what I have been seeing trickle in over the past few months. Yes, there could be an initial rush into it, but that would be the masses and we all know the old adage about them...
Gives new meaning to the word "Red China"...
My exposure is limited, but I think it will be down. I want to believe that 202 is possible on SPY. That with a rate hike will make for easy easy money.
closed all shorts out @ 1:30 today. Holding Oct puts in spy (190's). Bought a chunk of NUGT @ 2.68 and kicked it out at 2.80 on the run at the end of the day. I was going to start the weekend early, but I had a feeling they would try to rally it. That 2:30 15 minute candle told me it was gonna go. Enjoy your weekend lads! Hope you all made out well today trading. PS - I don't think the selling is done. The Bears left early and went to the Hamptons ;)
But I want it now!! lol
Waiting for the darned capitulation!
It's called "subterfuge"
The Fed is painted in a corner. Raising rates now is a death nail, but what happens if there is an economic slow down? Where are they going to go? They should have bared the shame years ago instead of putting lipstick on a pig. With deflation (which is sprouting up everywhere in emerging markets) it throws a monkey wrench in the whole darned thing. The US will be the least ugliest girl in the bar, but it doesn't mean anyone will take it home at the end of the night. We all know that the real unemployment number is much higher than 5.2%, so to me, this number today is innocuous. All it does is help the short term psychology of the mkt if it looks strong. What I am most curious to see is if the number is poor how everyone will react.
Thought we were going to get to that 194.60 #, it got close. it still looks like a bearish setup for tomorrow.
194.60 close or lower and that 10 day MA may have a theory behind it. I think we should name it the "imiloa band".