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when's the next Bradley? TIa. chubbie
I agree, u watching sndk? (eom)
no doubt, we lost 1480 today. AMAT was mediocre and actually down .10 at this time, but for some reason the NQ's are back up to 20.57 only down 9.5 for the day. The NDX actually faired better than the comp. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
getting the impression the 3pm big money crowd isn't too enthuised about tomorrow's cpi. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
Reading that article, I find it hard to belive we are headed for excess inflation or a bear market.If there was bad news on the horizon these updates would cause more panic than anything else. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
Thank You. (eom)
I mean back to like 2000.
tea, could u post the sox weekly. Tia, Chubbie
Kind of flat, possibly a consolidation day, need to see two things to makle me happy, first of all of course is the CPI, which should promote the second, that being the trannies returning to x's and staying there a 5 year chart shows the trannies have broken the 5 year uptrend, keep an eye on them. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$TRAN,P&listNum=
Gold up 12 bucks, shorts covering before PPI, let's see what happens there. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
From Jeff Greenblatt, Fibonacciman;
THE STOCK MARKET
I think where we left off on Thursday night was a decent place to think we could get the bounce with the NDX off 38% and the Dow putting in a reversal tail off 61% of the August low. Sometimes these things don't have a way of working out. Thursday's levels represented a minimum level correction in the tech and now we've had a maximum correction. By virtue of the fact tech almost hit 61% but did just about bounce off the 200dma (NASDAQ) validates that viewpoint. The NDX 200dma is still lower.
More importantly are the set of calculations the markets have respected in hitting this low. The NASDAQ just missed hitting the 1.618 extension of the last leg up of the old uptrend while the NQ hit a portion of it, the 2.618 extension of the pivot low from October 24.
But most important for now is yesterday's low is 61 days off the August low. The verdict is excellent time rotation and decent price retracement relationships. As long as we survive the open tomorrow where the Dow is exactly 162 hours off the top, it looks like the making of a decent low for now. The caveat here is as long as we don't negate today immediately we can rule out an inversion into a common 62 bar spike. Let's just say if this were a vicious bear market tomorrow has the kind of setup that could be a trap for those who bought today. If we get past the first couple of hours without a gap down we should be fine in the near term. Higher probability is a continuation of what started today, lower probability the trap but can't be ruled out technically after Tuesday's close.
That means its time to tighten stops for short profits and selectively look to be long. Citigroup bottomed 5 points lower than the experts whose losing strategies include averaging down. It hit the low over 10% lower than television guesstimators.. That's not an a word suited for Random House, but it works just fine for our MENS-Morning Entertainment Networks. Is C a buy? It has a shot at filling a gap near 42 but I think there are better speculative technical bounce type plays like Ryland which turned up on day 162, took out first resistance and didn't get bludgeoned on this move south. Nor did it hit a fresh low like some of its housing cousins.
BOTTOM LINE: Where we are at.....the first thing to look for is how these charts respond (mostly the NDX) to the 38% retracement level. In the NDX this is 2080 which is also on the south end of the gap down from last Friday. Look at Thursday's close at 2106 as your drop dead place to lock in short profits as the proxy. There is a point of the unknown once we are in the resistance zone from 2080-2106. I'd also look for this bounce to run into trouble in that area given the fact we survive tomorrow's open, which I think we will. Running into trouble isn't the same as forecasting an end to it. It just so happens to be an area of interest where this thing COULD fail and I'm not saying it WILL fail. Since I'm not going to be here the rest of the week, watch that area very carefully. If we blow through it, you could get a retest of the high. Another possibility is another split market. The SP500 came up just shy of the 38% retracement off October 31 which is a secondary high, not the high like it is in tech. That could conceivably drag starting tomorrow. But for now the candle looks real strong for today. And did you see the p/c elevate today? They're already taking insurance against this low. Folks, this indicator is supposed to be going the other way now.
Overall, the Dow and SP500 are the charts respecting the October 11 pivot, tech is not. We could develop a push-pull relationship again where the NDX leads to the upside but the Dow and SP500 stocks lag. In my research of the previous decades, when an index has violated its 261 week it usually ends up going much higher. In 1926, the 261 week cycle created a10 week correction. The point is I think tech should pull us out of this correction whenever it ends but the Dow/SP500 are still looking down the barrel of strong time resistance at October 11.
AUSTRALIA
At 8 days down this has been a very small correction, relatively speaking. I thought it had the ability to provide leadership last week but as Friday's session wore on the candle just melted away. When you're up 80 like that out of the shoot the last thing the bullish case wants to see is a retest of the low. But Friday was the front end of the 61 day cycle, now you are on the back end and up strongly. I'm expecting the leg down to be over. Aside from the cycle work, the most interesting development on the chart is how near term support at 6600 has not turned into resistance.
What this bounce represents more than anything else is the high probability power of the 61 day cycle. Are we in a low to low cycle with the August pivot that was confirmed? Yes. Does it mean its the bottom? No. But lets face it, the Australian charts look a lot better than the Dow or SP500. Forgetting this market for a minute, what I see on thousands of intraday charts is the high probability tendency for charts to respect this tendency no matter what happens after that. The implication is even the worst of markets will make some attempt to change direction at 61 bars. The strongest markets will pull back 38% and turn back up on 61 bars. I don't like the fact that you couldn't hold an 80 point gain on Friday but that was before conditions changed, and they changed today. Going forward I think any chart that did not validate October 11th as the high has a chance to do better in the next week. Charts that topped on October 11 are dealing with very stiff time resistance. You know which indices those are. Two things to watch while I'm gone........watch your 38% retracement levels back up and also pay attention to the p/c ratio because with today's elevation, this indicator now has a long way to go to get back to euphoria. Today's strong day up in North America actually created FEAR. As I said above, as long as we get through the open on Wednesday in the US, all other conditions point to a decent technical bounce if not more.
don't use stockcharts for BP's, there data is wrong a lot use dorsey's site. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
Ok, we got our bounce, now we need stability.PPI and CPI on the way tomorrow and Thurs. so, ya watch gold tomorrow, big dip lately right? So, if they are looking for a hot CPI they will rush back into Gold.So far its looking like they don't want to own gold and are going to ignore the headline CPI number cuz it's going to be very high cuz of oil. CPI should be good enough to convince the market that Gentle Ben and his merry band are still in play on Dec. 11th. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
just bought 10 nov 30's .55, if they don't hit I could always cull the shares, slow stochs and rsi overosld big time. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
yeah, I think they are shorting the wrong stock, an upgrade just on valuation will pop it 3-4 points. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
nwq's 1473.5 ina rectangle and still trying to break up through heavy resistance,we'll see. 9eom)
how about that bullish descending wedge on the
8 second chart?
aj, you got a read on Broadbomb opex, looks like its being pinned for 30 exp. TIA, CHUBBIE
looks like they are shaking them out of tech at the open. (eom)
I agree. (eom)
Retailers and the consumer takes center stage this week.opex week, more volatility perhaps one more big down day, but I think we bottom this week. 1425 strong support would take a few attempts to break it. I think just about all the bad news is priced in. It was time for some profit taking so they did it.
Subrprime/cash crunch grabbed the headlines and created the selling. Trade deficit was bullish and normally would have made for an up day and this was inspite of extremely high oild during the previous month. I think GDP bears are going to be wrong and GDP gets upgraded in the 4th quarter.Due to the low dollar the rest of the world is gobbling up U.S. products.I also think the U.S. consumer shouldn't be written off for dead, I think the reatilers will be bargains for the XMas season if they do sell them this weeek. WMT will suck, I expect weakness to start there.But they are throwing the baby out with the bathwater on a lot of the financials, retailers, tech semi's. All these sectors seem attractive to me now and I expect a huge move up in the market within a week or two. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
yep, end of the day on fri. just a little dumping that's all, the sectors that had to hold held, banks and semi's. Q's, printing 50 would be nice
(JMHO) CHUBBIE
GS, nice key reversal. (eom)
yep, looking like better buys than anything else. (EOM)
27.93. (JMHO)
They grabbed INTC too, the low was at the open. (EOM)
i was planning on grabbing that one, bought the bomber, and got all rapped up in daytrading GS long. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
Friday, nobody wants to hold, but I think the banks hold that criticla support from yesterday, i think we'll be alright. bargain hunters looking at tech now, I wouldn't bet my bottom dollar on a green close but, I think we finish well off the lows. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
qcom looks bad so far. (eom)
if so watch KLAC and broadbomb, the bomber is cheap now. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
Think we just held that critical support on the banks, loking for a bounce in them now, but this entore crisis is long from over. (JMHO) CHUBBIE
can qcom resurrect techor timberrrrrrrr? eom
so far we stopped at the July high beofre the Aug. swoon,
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQQ&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p86144342599
this looks a little better, with the 50.80 print we have a four box rversal, but we still might have to print 50 at 2037,
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=QQQQ,P&listNum=
if they can't recapture 2107, then its 2037 (JMHO)
Gentle Ben just spoke, housing carry over, restricted credit, blah blah blah, the importance is now he has a reason to cut rates, its not about Wall street's ineptitude any more. (JMHO) CHUBBIE