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My post was not meticulcous
Good. Meticulcous are the absolute worst.
Looking at CTIX' action yesterday, one might suspect that some lucky soul had advance notice of the NYT P53 article.
requesting that ARIA request an SEC investigation re the selling etc.
And what might such an investigation turn up, other than a lot of holders didn't like the label?
Does anyone know what format Schwab uses for WI's? I've tried multiple combinations, none of which work.
I assume everybody has seen that CNOOC has won approval to buy NXY. It will take years for the route to Asia from the oil sands to open up, but I can't help thinking a source of supply was what motivated the Chinese.
There's also an interesting back story - some miscreants must have started a rumor that the deal had been disapproved and the stock went as low as 21. It is now around 27. 27.5 is the buyout price.
Buy before, or after, do you think?
Not at all bearish in the short run, with all these upstart mills cranking out steel to be stockpiled somewhere. It's all the same to the miners.
Actually the whole article, dealing with steel making overcapacity (not iron ore) is interesting. Excerpt:
Global steel has a big problem: It's too big and it's getting bigger.
This year, steel mills around the world have a production capacity of 1.8 billion tons but will take orders for only 1.5 billion tons. And instead of consolidating and becoming more efficient, the industry is building still more capacity.
By 2016, an estimated 100 new mills, with total estimated supply capacity of 350 million tons, are expected to come on stream, according to industry executives and consultants. Companies in Vietnam, Argentina, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia, all backed in some way by their governments, are building or planning new mills.
Officials in these countries say they want to invest in industrial development, supply homegrown steel to their manufacturers and cut imports. But what may appear to be welcome developments for local economies has reverberations through a global industry.
"You see people wanting to build new facilities all the time, all over the world," says Dan DiMicco, CEO of Nucor Corp., NUE +0.37% the second-biggest U.S. steelmaker, and a proponent of more consolidation.
"You can argue about what needs to happen next," said Charles Bradford, an analyst with New York-based Bradford Research Inc. "But no question: there is too much capacity."
Getting a definite count on the number of steel mills in the world and actual production capacity is difficult in large part, say industry officials and analysts, because there are hundreds of small, uncounted mills in China, which accounts for 46% of world steel output. Estimates for the number of steel mills in China range from 600 to 800 mills.
The oversupply issue has reduced steel prices and profits, as seen in the latest round of earnings, and led to renewed calls for consolidation and rationalization among industry officials and investors. ArcelorMittal, MT +0.72% which is the world's largest steelmaker by output but only has 6% of the global market, reported a loss of $709 million in the third quarter. CEO Lakshmi Mittal has said he believes the industry is far too fragmented and that the company would remain focused on consolidation "as long as the right opportunities arise."<snip>
DE, Barron's
Deere Can Regain Its Stride
By DIMITRA DEFOTIS
The farm equipment and construction machinery giant stumbled on weak quarterly earnings. However, we spy a buying opportunity.
Farm equipment and construction machinery giant Deere didn't produce the quarterly earnings that analysts wanted, but investors may be too cautious about global growth prospects and strong pricing in 2013.
Shares of Deere (ticker: DE) were down $3.52, or 4%, to $82.34 in midday trading.
The stock is about 8% below its 52-week high of $89.70. But shares look relatively attractive with a valuation slightly below estimates for long-term earnings growth of 10%.
In the fiscal fourth quarter that ended Oct. 31, Deere reported earnings rose 2.7% to $687.6 million, or $1.75 a share, versus a year-earlier profit of $669.6 million, or $1.62 a share. Analysts expected $1.88 a share. Revenue, however, was strong at $9.05 billion, a 14.5% increase year over year.
Deere's largest segment, agriculture and turf equipment, saw weaker operating margins due to higher costs. Rising taxes and unfavorable foreign-exchange rates didn't help. In construction and forest equipment, operating profit surged, with equipment sales in the U.S. and Canada making up for a decline in other parts of the world.
CEO Samuel Allen said in the press release, referenced above, that Deere is using cash flow from record results to reinvest in new products and in factories in China, India and Brazil, with a "disciplined approach to cost."
And this is surely fueling Deere's outlook for 2013 profit of about $3.2 billion, reflecting stronger pricing and sales growth of 5%.
If Deere does keep a lid on costs -- and that looks entirely possible with moderating steel and North American energy prices -- margins should hold up. Raw materials costs were a worry last year, (see Barron's Take, "Deere Can Plow Higher," Nov. 23, 2011), but the company's growth projections came to fruition.
In advance of the latest results, Citigroup analyst Timothy Thein visited U.S. farmers, equipment dealers and auctioneers, and reported the "tone was more upbeat than we expected, as high commodity prices, better-than-feared yields and solid insurance protection has translated into stable order patterns (especially for row crop equipment) and rising optimism into 2013."
He notes that Deere has pricing power in North America, and that the company could see better-than-expected cost relief in fiscal 2013 as prices for steel, as well as resins and other oil-based derivatives, moderate.
Thein has a Buy rating on Deere and a $97 price target, implying 17% upside.
Shares are changing hands at 9.9 times estimated earnings of $8.30 per share for the fiscal year that ends in October 2013. Analysts have been looking for earnings-per-share growth of about 8% in fiscal 2014.
And the company has its share of savvy investors. Warren Buffett purchased the largest new stake in Deere in the three-month period ending Sept. 30, with Berkshire Hathaway adding 3,978,767 shares, according to StreetSight.net. Berkshire is the 12th largest shareholder, with ownership of 1% of outstanding shares. Bill Gates' Cascade Investment has maintained the big Deere stake it initiated in August 2011 and remains the largest shareholder with 6.3% of shares outstanding.
Those investors may be paying less attention to quarterly results and more attention to Deere's ability to boost sales and profits in a tough environment.
Among the skeptics is Morgan Stanley analyst Vance Edelson, who has an Underweight rating on Deere shares. He writes that competitors with a greater mix of aftermarket business may be better positioned than Deere. With global agriculture accounting for the majority of Deere revenues, the risks are significant for a slowdown in mature markets like the U.S. and Brazil, compounded by expansion into newer markets like India or China that could prove more costly or slower than expected.
But these risks are likely baked into Deere's forecast for 2013.
And U.S. equipment sales could end up surprising the Street and boosting investor returns in the year ahead.
E-mail: dimitra.defotis@barrons.com
Take two caps at bedtime is one thing. Change your life style is quite something else.
This may a case of the camel getting his nose under the tent.
after at least 6 months on a weight loss regimen that includes a low calorie diet, increased physical activity, and behavioral therapy
How on earth will Aetna control for compliance?
WSJ
For investors willing to wait until next year, Novartis may finally regain some potency.
The Swiss drug maker's U.S.-listed shares have endured a string of selloffs and false starts over the last two years. The stock has gained just 8% in that time, lagging both the broader stock market and the NYSE Arca Pharmaceutical Index.
Despite new drug launches and the acquisition of eye-care company Alcon last year, Novartis (ticker: NVS) hasn't been able to offset dwindling sales of Diovan, the blockbuster blood-pressure drug that lost U.S. patent protection earlier this year. Add price cuts in Europe and lingering manufacturing problems, and revenue and earnings should shrink this year.
But next year should be much better. That's when CEO Joseph Jimenez sees profit growing again thanks in part to rising sales of cutting-edge new drugs. By 2014, he wants Novartis to grow bigger than it was in 2011 before Diovan went generic.
Add a 4% dividend yield and Novartis deserves better than the 11.5 times forward earnings it now fetches.
"This is a company that has a great pipeline and a [large] dividend yield, yet we trade at a below-market multiple," says Jimenez in a recent interview. "The Diovan patent expiration has created a wait-and-see situation. But this is a company that can grow through innovation."
With revenue of less than $59 billion last year, Novartis is one of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies, selling medicines for cancer, multiple sclerosis and diabetes, as well as vaccines, over-the-counter medications and generic drugs.
Roughly 54% of those sales came from brand-name prescription medications, with sales of Diovan and the cancer drugs Zometa and Gleevec exceeding $11 billion.
Unfortunately, Diovan sales will fall to roughly $4 billion this year. And next year, Zometa loses its U.S. patent protection, with Gleevec following in 2016.
Vaccine sales have been weak and quality-control problems at four production plants have hurt sales of generic drugs and consumer products.
Revenue will fall to just below $57 billion for the 2012 calendar year and yield earnings per share of $5.21, a 6% drop compared to last year, according to Thomson Reuters.
At a Glance
Novartis (NVS)
ADR Price: $59.08
52-Week High: $64.07
52-Week Low: $51.20
Market Cap: $142.7 billion
Est. 2012 EPS: $5.21 per share
Fwd P/E: 11.5 times
Est. Long-Term EPS Growth:* 2%
Est. ('12/'11) EPS Growth: -6%
Revenue (trailing 12 months): $57.5 billion
Dividend Yield: 4.20%
CEO: Joseph Jimenez
Headquarters: Basel, Switzerland
* Based on analyst estimates looking ahead three to five years.
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Yahoo! Finance
In 2013, however, Wall Street sees Novartis earning $5.30 a share. Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Tim Anderson says profit growth should average 5% to 10% annually through 2020.
Cost cutting has been a big focus for Novartis, as we noted in January (see Barron's Take, "Say Yes to Novartis," Jan. 14). Also, the company has invested heavily in emerging markets, which generate roughly 25% of sales.
But Novartis's real hope lies in rising sales among drugs launched in the last half-decade, and a promising pipeline that could deliver 14 or more blockbusters by 2017, including cancer, respiratory and heart treatments.
Novartis is well regarded for investing in research and development. And it's paid off with 30% of sales coming from drugs launched since 2007, a list that includes the kidney cancer drug Afinitor, the multiple sclerosis drug Gilenya and the diabetes drug Galvus.
But next year, Novartis plans to file for regulatory approval of a heart failure drug dubbed RLX030, or serelaxin. By 2014, it plans to seek Food and Drug Administration approval of the respiratory drug QVA149.
On Friday, the meningitis B vaccine Bexsero won backing from an advisory panel in Europe, which clears the way for regulatory approval there in the next three months.
"If they can deliver on their pipeline, there is upside to consensus sales and earnings estimates and that is when you will see the stock outperforming its peers among the big global pharmaceutical companies," says Brown Advisory analyst Paul Li.
Of course, Novartis has its detractors.
It's not the cheapest name among big drug makers, trading at a premium to rivals such as Pfizer (PFE) and Sanofi (SNY). The company can't afford regulatory delays or setbacks.
Critics argue that it could be 2014 before Novartis's bottom line starts expanding again.
No doubt about it, investors have had to swallow several bitter pills regarding Novartis. Still, it's poised to give investors what they crave -- earnings growth.
Add a growing dividend, and the stock can deliver potent returns.
Brean Capital initiates coverage on THLD with buy, target 15, hence the modest pre-market bounce. Enthusiastic target.
Somehow or other I omitted the last para of that article.
Dividend.com reported that a Goldman analyst wrote that the Cliffs announcement “underscores that in a relatively weak iron ore market, high-cost producers like Cliffs will be at greater disadvantage. Additionally, we anticipate lower production volume in Canada will translate into higher costs. While we expect a price rebound in 2013, we see prices falling thereafter, placing its expansion plans and dividends at risk.”
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Home » Ohio Energy Newsletter
Cliffs Natural Resources to idle two U.S. iron ore sites, delay expansion in Canada
By SCOTT SUTTELL
10:00 am, November 20, 2012
Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: CLF) said it will delay expansion at a mine in eastern Canada and will idle some production at iron ore operations in Michigan and Minnesota, moves that are due to what the company called “increased iron ore pricing volatility and lower North American steelmaking utilization rates.”
Cleveland-based Cliffs said idling production, effective Jan. 5, 2013, at Northshore Mining in Minnesota and Empire Mine in Michigan will affect about 625 workers — 125 at Northshore and 500 at Empire. Cliffs employs a total of about 7,400 people worldwide.
"Unfortunately the U.S. Iron Ore production curtailments will affect many of our employees,” said Laurie Brlas, Cliffs' president of global operations, in a statement. “However, we believe it is prudent and necessary to match our production volumes with market demand. We will remain operationally flexible to ramp up production volumes throughout the year if the demand increases."
She said the company's 2013 expected sales volumes for U.S. iron ore remain unchanged at 19 million to 20 million tons.
At Bloom Lake Mine in Quebec, Cliffs said it's “suspending certain components of the Phase II expansion, including the completion of the concentrator and load out facility. As a result, construction related to these activities will cease and third-party contractors will be demobilized effective immediately.”
The delay will decrease Cliffs' eastern Canadian iron ore sales volumes in 2013 to 9 million to 10 million tons from the previous expectation of 13 million to 14 million tons, the company said.
Depending on market conditions, Cliffs said it now expects to complete the Bloom Lake Phase II construction in early 2014.
Joseph A. Carrabba, Cliffs' chairman, president and CEO, said in a statement, “Disciplined capital allocation is core to our operating strategy, and reducing higher-cost production will enhance our financial flexibility in both the short and longer term. Despite (Monday's) announcement, we are still committed to our investments in Canada and believe Bloom Lake will deliver significant long-term value over time."
Cliffs' announcement prompted Goldman Sachs to downgrade the mining and natural resources company to a “sell” from “neutral.”
There's a sizeable school of thought, possibly misguided, that a Goldman downgrade means that the firm is actually bullish and wants to buy at a cheaper price.
CLF +3% in early trading on cost-cutting actions.
A trifle irresolute today. Or did they advance ex-dividend by one day?
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved Promacta for the treatment of thrombocytopenia, or low blood platelet counts, in patients with chronic hepatitis C to allow them to initiate and maintain interferon-based therapy. There are limitations to the use of PROMACTA in patients suffering from chronic hepatitis C-associated thrombocytopenia, the company noted.
From a Market Watch article on Buffet's portfolio
http://247wallst.com/2012/11/14/buffetts-significant-changes-to-berkshire-hathaway-stock-holdings/?link=mktw
Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) was listed as NEW POSITION of about 4 million shares.
The FIDO report is dated 11/6
I don’t own CLF for the dividend yield.
No, but it helps.
From Fidelity
Ticker: CLF
Stock performance year-to-date: -41%
Price-earnings ratio: 8
Dividend yield: 6.8%
Cliffs is one of the world’s largest producers of iron ore, a key raw ingredient in steel. Prices for iron ore collapsed this year as China — the world’s largest steel consumer — sharply cut demand. This has decimated Cliffs’ stock, which is down more than 40% this year, including a 10% plunge after the company missed third-quarter earnings forecasts.
Yet some analysts view the sell-off in Cliffs as a buying opportunity. The third-quarter results were a “lagging indicator” that reflect the weakness in iron ore prices and demand over the past few months, according to BMO Capital Markets analyst Tony Robson. But iron ore prices have recovered since then, with China importing a “very strong” 65 million tons in August.
The Chinese government recently announced the approval of 25 new subway lines and 13 highway projects. Longer term, China has announced more than $1.3 trillion in infrastructure projects through 2020, supporting demand for iron ore and steel.
One risk is that Cliffs may slash its dividend if iron ore prices weaken and cash flows don’t improve. Investors may already be anticipating a dividend cut, though, based on the stock’s declines. While the stock is likely to be volatile and near-term earnings forecasts may decline, Robson figures it’s worth around $50 a share based on the long-term value of Cliffs’ mining assets and factoring in no gains in iron ore prices.
From the Telegraph's Evans Pritchard. Evans Pritchard like to paint with a broad brush, but here's he's basing himself the Conference Board
The catch-up boom in China, India, Brazil is largely over and will be followed by a drastic slowdown over the next decade, according to a grim report by America’s top forecasting body.
Europe's prognosis is even worse, with France trapped in depression with near zero growth as far as 2025 and Britain struggling to raise its speed limit to 1pc over the next three Parliaments.
The US Conference Board’s global economic outlook calls into question the "BRICs" miracle (Brazil, Russia, India, China), arguing that the low-hanging fruit from cheap labour and imported technology has already been picked.
China’s double-digit expansion rates will soon be a romantic memory. Growth will fall to 6.9pc next year, then to 5.5pc from 2014-2018, and 3.7pc from 2019-2025 as the aging crisis hits and investment returns go into "rapid decline".
Growth in India - where the reform agenda has been "largely derailed" - will fall to 4.7pc to 2018, and then to 3.9pc. Brazil will slip to 3pc and then 2.7pc. Such growth rates will leave these countries stuck in the "middle income trap", dashing hopes for a quick jump into the affluent league.
"As China, India, Brazil, and others mature from rapid, investment-intensive ‘catch-up’ growth, the structural ‘speed limits’ of their economies are likely to decline," said the Board.
The fizzling emerging market story is a key reason why the West has relapsed this year. The world is now facing a synchronized downturn all fronts, with little scope for fiscal and monetary stimulus.
France slumps to bottom of the class, with Britain close behind
"Mature economies are still healing the scars of the 2008-2009 crisis. But unlike in 2010 and 2011, emerging markets did not pick up the slack in 2012, and won’t do so in 2013," it said.
The Conference Board says Europe’s demographic crunch and poor productivity has reduced trend growth to near 1pc, though it could be worse if the region makes a hash of monetary policy and follows Japan (EUREX: FMJP.EX - news) into a "structural deflation trap". Large numbers of people may be shut out of the jobs market forever.
Germany will outperform Italy and France massively over the next five years, implying a bitter conflict within EMU over control of the policy levers. While the report does not analyze debt-dynamics, it is hard to see how the Club Med (Paris: FR0000121568 - news) bloc could keep its head above water in such a grim scenario or stop political revolt coming to the boil.
Bert Colijn, the Board’s Europe economist, said France’s woes stem from low investment, as well as delayed austerity and reform. The reckoning will now come.
He thinks Spain will fare better since it has already taken its bitter medicine. It is expected to grow at 1.8pc for the next decade as "Schumpeterian" creative destruction clears away dead wood and unleashes fresh energy - a contentious point since labour economists argue that unemployment of 25.6pc is doing permanent damage to parts of the workforce, and therefore to economic potential.
America has a younger age profile and should eke out 2.5pc to 3pc growth until 2018, and 2pc thereafter. It has a big "output gap" of 6pc of GDP to close before it hits any speed limit, so part of this is just the effect of elastic snapping back.
Emerging markets deflate
The Board said lack of demand lies behind the current global malaise, but the fading technology cycle may prove a greater threat over the long-term.
The thesis is based on work by professor Robert Gordon from Northwestern University, who argues that the great innovation burst of the last 250 years is a "unique episode in human history" and may be fading. His claims challenge the work of Nobel laureate Robert Solow - orthodoxy since the 1950s - that economic growth is a perpetual process once the right legal and market framework is in place.
The Conference Board’s forecast is starkly at odds with a report by the OECD last week predicting that China would keep growing at 6.6pc until 2030, and India at 6.7pc -- propelling the two rising powers to global dominance.
Apostles of the BRICS revolution are certain to dispute the claims. Yet there could be no clearer sign that the emerging market euphoria of the last decade has fully deflated.
why are long time, former perma bull MNTA longs closing out their positions
FINALLY the buy signal I've been waiting for!
You could also argue that yesterday was actually a good day to bury bad news.
BCRX
12:47AM BioCryst Pharm reports outcome from the Peramivir Phase 3 interim analysis (BCRX) 2.45 : Co announces completion of the planned interim analysis of the peramivir Phase 3 trial in patients admitted to the hospital with serious influenza. The difference between peramivir and control groups for the primary endpoint was small and the recalculated sample size was greater than the predefined futility boundary of 320 subjects. Based on this information, the independent data monitoring committee recommended that the study be terminated for futility. No unexpected adverse events were identified and the DMC expressed no concerns about the safety of peramivir. The interim analysis will be discussed by BioCryst management during the Company's third quarter 2012 results conference call.
Any readers of this board who are on Lipitor want to expose yourselves so that the rest of us can devote a lengthy OT thread about your poor moral fiber and lack of devotion to exercise?
No problem. I do a minimum of 30 miles a week on my bike (with 5 high intensity intervals per day), I'm at the gym a minimum of 5 days a week, I'm 81 years old and would seem to be in more than excellent health, but I don't really know since I see my doctor as little as possible. My real primary care physician is my dermatologist, result of a misspent youth in the sun.
I take 10 mg of lipitor per day. My lipid levels are excellent, by everything I've read.
Any questions?
Luckily for me, I did last week, at 15.10.
If obesity is indeed a disease of the economically disadvantaged, that $160 price tag does look steep.
When you have to pay $160 p/m, there's nothing left for super size fries.
I hope you're right - I bought 4k at 7.96.
Hess Reports Estimated Results for the Third Quarter of 2012
Third Quarter Highlights:
Net income was $557 million, compared with $298 million in the third quarter of 2011
Net income excluding items affecting comparability between periods was $495 million compared with $379 million in the third quarter of 2011
Oil and gas production increased to 402,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up from 344,000 in the third quarter of 2011
Production from the Bakken oil shale play in North Dakota increased to 62,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up from 32,000 in the third quarter of 2011
Net cash provided by operating activities was $1,862 million, compared with $1,022 million in the third quarter of 2011
Actually the futures closed (at 9:15) quite frisky after that down open.
They just opened, down heavily.
CME index futures will open at 7 p.m.
From SA, re VALE
http://seekingalpha.com/article/956661-today-s-long-term-winning-mining-pick?source=email_global_markets&ifp=0
Iron ore imports to China increased to 65 million tons in September, the highest in almost two years.
Gordon Chang - he puts a lot of weight on energy as an indicator, but it's not quite clear from the article whether he's talking about production or consumption.
FT
The connection between market prices and economic realities is partial, uncertain, changeable and irrational. A connection there is, however, and after an equity market rout like Tuesday’s, causes will be sought, and fingers will doubtless point to poor earnings reports from two very large industrial companies: 3M and DuPont.
Sales at DuPont fell sharply and earnings per share got sliced in half. Organic sales growth was slightly positive at 3M and earnings rose, but profit targets for the year were cut. It is easy to moan about the declining US industrial base. The US was not the problem at either company, though. The problem was Asia, which represents a quarter of DuPont’s sales and almost a third of 3M’s. Du Pont saw Asian volumes and prices fall 10 and 5 per cent, respectively, excluding currency effects. At 3M, falling prices outweighed volume increases.
Du Pont noted two sources of pain in Asia. First, and more important, was the slowdown in Chinese construction and infrastructure spending. This hit the company’s performance chemicals business, which sells heavily to producers of paint and flooring. Second came excess capacity in the solar panel industry, which DuPont supplies with materials. It was also 3M’s electronics business which suffered most in Asia.
Yet encouragingly, if there is going to be contagion across developing markets, it does not appear to have started yet: Latin America was by far the strongest region for both companies (alas, the strong dollar diluted away the strong local results).
These numbers, unsettling as they are, illustrate the power, not the risks, of global diversification. Growth and profits in one region pick up when another slows. Investors should be thinking not just about returns, but also about investment. The question is not so much which companies will be hurt by the Asian slowdown, but which companies will seize the opportunity to invest in the region at the bottom of the cycle.
The UK Telegraph engineered a trap to expose the laxity of medical device regulation in the EU, specifically Czech Republic and Slovakia.
The device submitted for approval was essentially identical to a DePuy metal on metal implant that has been withdrawn in this country.
(I'm assuming that a "notified body" has the authority to approve the marketing of such devices.)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/9626756/Faulty-medical-implants-investigation-Patients-health-put-at-risk-by-unscrupulous-EU-regulators.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/9626921/Faulty-medical-implants-investigation-A-system-in-disarray-that-favours-manufacturers-at-the-expense-of-safety.html
From CAT's release
Geographic region: Sales in North America were up 9 percent, sales in Asia/Pacific increased 8 percent and
sales in EAME and Latin America were about flat. The increase in North America was primarily driven by
improvements in the United States. Within Asia/Pacific, declines in China were more than offset by increases
in Australia and other parts of Asia/Pacific. While sales in Europe were down, sales in Africa, the Middle East
and CIS increased.
• Core Laboratories NV (CLB). The company reported third-quarter earnings of $1.14 per share on revenue of $245.4 million. It sees fourth-quarter earnings of $1.10 to $1.17 per share on revenue of $245 million to $250 million.
The company expects to increase quarterly dividend in 2013 while continuing share buyback program.
Thank you, Peter.