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Typically, how long before a decision is rendered in such cases? Thanks.
I think so too. This quarter is finished today. No Amphastar launch yet. So another $60-65 million for the quarter.
Now it is unlikely that Amphastar will launch over the weekend. So, I think we can count two days in October at the 45% profit sharing instead of the royalty rate Hey, every little bit counts right now if you are a MNTA holder!
Analyst estimates have already come down in Yahoo for next quarter. It is currently at -0.04. Each day in October when there is no launch, this has to be raised. Of course, EPS doesn't matter now, it is how much cash that they can put away before the royalty rate kicks in. Even if they get a month that is an additional $20 million or so that raises the cash balance over 400 million. Their market cap is just at $580 million now. I am off the opinion that every week that goes by in October without an Amphastar launch, MNTA share price should start going up a little. If it does not we may even end up in a situation where it will trading at cash value. I hope it never comes to that. If it does then the Shorts are in complete control. But they would be foolish not to cover at this point.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=MNTA+Analyst+Estimates
Now, if the FDA releases favorable guidelines (for MNTA) for Biosilimars in early October, then that should help the stock price too as the chances increase of an FOB partnership happening sooner rather than later.
So, we hope for massive insider buying after the current quarter's earnings call on Oct 31st?
Yes, I agree with that. Rick Shea said that now is a good time to buy their shares. He should put his money where his mouth is. Rick and Craig need to do that and soon to put an end to this slide. This is getting ridiculous!
When the stock was at 17.50, I sold the Oct $20 call. Naturally I want the stock to finish at 19.99 on Op ex day. So, then I can sell the Nov 21/22 call for a decent premium.
Now with the stock at $12, I can only sell the Nov $13/14 call to get a decent premium. If my cost basis is around $15, I obviously don't want to do that.
So, I want the stock to go up, but not too much Hope that clears it up.
Monness Crespi and Hardt reiterated BUY with 19 target. Tweet from Patrick about an Hour ago. Anybody have details on this?
So far we have the following:
1. Monness Crespi and Hardt; BUY; Target $19
2. UBS upgrades to BUY; Target $16
3. BOfA/Merrill upgrades to NEUTRAL; Target $15
4. Cowen downgrades to NEUTRAL; Target ?
5. Canaccord Genuity reiterates BUY; Target $15; This dissapointed me the most as she lowered her target from $27
So, 2 Upgrades, 1 Downgrade and 2 Reiterated (Buy)
Did I miss a Goldman downgrade?
But isn't MNTA then going after Amphastar for the revenue loss to MNTA + legal costs?. This could be considerable as we know.
Doesn't this mean some good news for MNTA? All the more reason for Amphastar not to launch as they are a tiny company and will risk bankruptcy if they lose and have to pay damages.
Momenta Pharma sues Amphastar for patent infringement
Momenta Pharmaceuticals announced that it has sued Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Watson Pharmaceuticals, and International Medical Systems, in the United States District Court for the District of Massachusetts for infringement of two Momenta patents. The patents cover the company's innovative methods of producing enoxaparin sodium, which assure that the commercial product meets standards for identity and quality. One patent, U.S. Patent No. 7,790,466, is related to methods of processing enoxaparin to determine the presence of certain tetrasaccharide structures. The second patent, U.S. Patent No. 7,575,886, is related to methods of analyzing enoxaparin for the presence of a certain st ructural signature.
Fly on the Wall
Rick Shea -- Expect to hear from us shortly on how we will protect our IP on Enoxaparin.
I wouldn't be surprised if more shorts have jumped on in the last couple of days thinking that a Teva lovenox approval or a MNTA loss in the Copaxone lawsuit might cause this to tank some more. If that were the case, any bit of good news should help with a squeeze. I can hope, can't I?
MNTA downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Cowen citing reduced visibility. Price target?
MNTA upgraded to Neutral from Underperform by BofA / Merrill based on valuation. Price target lowered to $15.
One thing I don't understand, is how Amphastar can infringe on MNTA's patent when their application was submitted a year prior to MNTA's application? So, surely they had discovered their own way of reverse engineering Lovenox. Was Amphastar's mistake then not patenting their way of doing it? In which case MNTA would be infringing as their application came later? I am not sure how patents work. It seems illogical to me that MNTA can block somebody who had submitted their application before them. I guess the same goes for MNTA's case against TEVA.
I am very long MNTA stock and calls and obviously hurt from today's decline.
Can't Amphastar sue MNTA for damages?
If MNTA files a lawsuit to prevent launch and then loses the case because it is found that Amphastar didn't infringe on any of MNTA's patents, can't Amphastar / WPI sue MNTA for damages then?
Momenta Pharma shares defended at Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer said the FDA approved Watson's/Amphastar generic enoxaparin. The firm said they have already modeled for a Q3 entry of a second generic in Momenta's estimates and recommends buying shares on weakness. :theflyonthewall.com
Momenta Pharma shares defended at Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer said the FDA approved Watson's/Amphastar generic enoxaparin. The firm said they have already modeled for a Q3 entry of a second generic in Momenta's estimates and recommends buying shares on weakness. :theflyonthewall.com
The retards at Zacks failed to indicate that Teva's citizen petition was denied.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Court-Ruling-Favors-zacks-682288654.html?x=0&.v=1
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We note that Teva’s patent for Copaxone is set to expire in 2014. The company has filed a Citizen Petition (CP) with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) asking the agency to refuse the approval of generic versions of Copaxone. Teva has also asked the FDA to get any abbreviated new drug application (ANDA) for Copaxone to be reviewed by an advisory panel.
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Considering that the short interest is still around 7.5 million shares and Discovery Capital Management has reduced the float by an additional 700k shares. (they already had 1.87M shares). This would imply that the float can't be very high -- less than 10 million if Yahoo is to be believed. We just need some good news for a short squeeze
So, MNTA has now five 5% or higher institutional holders. That has to be good news!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=MNTA+Major+Holders
Top Institutional Holders
Holder Shares % Out Value* Reported
FMR LLC 3,970,314 7.76 77,262,310 Jun 30, 2011
PRICE (T.ROWE) ASSOCIATES INC 3,686,647 7.20 71,742,150 Jun 30, 2011
PALO ALTO INVESTORS, LLC 3,583,602 7.00 69,736,894 Jun 30, 2011
Discovery Capital Management, LLC 1,876,711 3.67 36,520,796 Jun 30, 2011
OPPENHEIMER FUNDS, INC. 5,502,266 10.75 107,074,096 Jun 30, 2011
Leerink comment on 8/25/11
Momemnta Pharma risk/reward favorable
Leerink said MNTA's risk/reward is favorable into generic copaxone trial starting September 7 and reflects a low probability of a positive outcome. Shares are outperform rated.
Well, MNTA closed above 16.40 at 16.61. TA suggests that we are good? So people didn't have to jump yesterday?
A couple of days ago, MNTA was below $15. Using Technical analysis, it should have continued to slide down. At some point TA makes no sense what so ever.
Right now several stocks are broken technically, but yet they are going up today.
That is the problem with this market. Lots of people with no clue of the fundamentals using technical trading.
I would doubt that Teckcor has bailed on MNTA. He is probably loading up at these prices. At some point you have to say forget the technicals and just buy, as this article suggests.
http://www.boston.com/business/markets/articles/2011/08/11/more_turning_to_technical_trading_magnifying_market_volatility/
BMTI is a close 3rd at 80.81% down from its high.
Zipjet,
How do you get loss of 30-35 cents? Can you show us the math behind this?
Dew's number for this quarter for Lovenox US Sales was $513 million.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=65635956&txt2find=sanofi
Let us round this to 2.1 Billion for 2012 to be shared equally between 3 companies. Would your calculations change with these assumptions?
Thanks,
Hande
I am buying! I am buying a lot of Jan 2013, $20, $25, $30, $35 calls on the cheap. Surely, if we squeeze out a couple more quarters with no T-Enox we should start approaching $20 to $25. At some point the analysts will all start raising their targets.
By the way, a retarded analyst downgraded MDR when it hit $14 and not when it was $20+ a few months ago. How do they even keep their jobs?
Wow! The Dow and S&P are up huge, the NASDAQ is up a little, yet MNTA is red. WTF?
Go Seek,
I couldn't listen because I had a work conference call. So this increases from about 10% to what percentage?
Also, what is the payment that MNTA is getting from NVS for completing one year with no 2nd generic.
Thanks,
Hande
Yes, I saw the use of the word unethical in a recent article. I was pleasantly surprised to say the least. So, I have been buying MNTA again at these levels yesterday and today
http://www.genericsweb.com/index.php?object_id=984
Behrman also noted that duplicative testing is unethical, stating, “What I think we’ve shown in our decision on generic enoxaparin, is we may be able to take the European experience [approving biosimilar products] and go one step further.”
DFRAI,
I don't need any history lessons from a revisionist historian like you. Let us not resort to childish name calling.
Let us agree to disagree and move on.
Now, I am predicting $1.28 earnings tomorrow and hoping that there is some kind of news for the shorts to be squeezed. How about you?
If there is an FOB partnership would they try to announce it on the day of earnings? I would like that to happen tomorrow
It started out that way yesterday too, running up to 18.30 or so and then dropped all the way back to 17.30. Even at the risk of incurring Investorgold's wrath, I think this has been heavily manipulated I wouldn't be surprised to see it close below 17.30.
Flight to quality stocks. It is pretty obvious that this is what is going on. Why else would people be selling MNTA and buying LNKD?
This market is reta**ed!
That is just plain silly. If there are 4 more quarters of similar earnings from MNTA you are actually saying that MNTA will go down because the comparisons get harder. Wait that is not silly, that is worse.
Now MNTA has a P/E of 2.5 to 3 if you back out the cash mainly because of the threat of T-Enox. 4 more quarters of no T-Enox will mean MNTA will have $11 cash and then the P/E will be approaching 1 if MNTA goes lower from here. No, 4 more quarters with no T-Enox would imply that the market will finally assign a higher multiple. Then we are looking at a $25+ stock with no M-Copaxone.
When I saw that TEVA was halted, I was a little worried! For a moment I thought that it was going to be news about Teva-Lovenox. Now, I am relieved and I must admit there is a tinge of Schadenfreude Hey, those miserable b***rds have given MNTA investors enough grief. There is nothing wrong in being a little happy at this news, right?
Yes, it won't sound like a broken record. Wait, I was not talking about Craig Wheeler
If you back out the near $7 cash and consider about $4 EPS for 2011, it is trading at 10/4 = 2.5 P/E
I had suggested that it could be between $1.26 and $1.31. 10nisman then corrected it to be between $1.18 and $1.30
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=65316081
Everybody, you know what this means! Today is a good day to buy MNTA, as Dew has updated the ReadMeFirst