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Can we get this 113 into trials already! Jeez Louise! Pfizer is going have Crizotinib on the market by the time Aria get's 113 going.
Perhaps Kirk can do something about that pesky middle east when gets a chance too!
And I was having such a wonderful day. Thanks a million Dew!
I don't blame Berger, but I do look forward to a day when this s@#t doesn't happen everyday. We need a 534 partner to bring us back to the highs. How much you figure the partnership Berger is peddling is worth? Seems to me like he wants to keep the cookie and give away the crumbs.
Sorry about the doubles guys. new laptop with a lousy mouse.
We follow a lot of bios. Can you think of one that consistently gets rag dolled like Aria? Holy cow it's like a roller coaster everyday.
Speaking of interest, have you seen NEOP?
I saw that one thanks. He sure gets a lot of attention. Kind of like the new Al Mann. Let's see what happens.
I agree. It was either Cris or Arry. I just sold Arry.
Thanks BTH
Thanks. They expect the data this quarter correct?
BTH
I'm doing some early spring cleaning and I'm thinking of getting out of CRIS. Can you convince it's a bad move?
Thanks, Joe
Ziop keeps teasing us with that morning burst. Next good day for the overall market and I think she might break $6.
I hate to always sound like a conspiracy theorist, but IMO, that whole deal Thurs and Fri was shady. Looking back, it felt like a perfect storm for a take down.
The technicals were bad, the Feb $6 strike was expiring and then that Biomed article. Everyone knows CTIC is a garbage biotech. For ARIA to be put in the same opening sentence with them was odd if you ask me. Def reminded me of the Argus downgrade/Fidelity load up that someone mentioned a few days ago.
"This is the business we've chosen" - Hyman Roth
TNFerade was the name
GNVC should be a case study on the first page of the biotech trader's handbook.
I forget the name of the drug, but the study was in pancreatic cancer. Seemed like it was going well then one night, WHAAMO!! total failure and the drug was being yanked. That was horrible.
I remember watching the videos on you tube and seeing those poor people who were looking to get it for compassionate use. Puts our loss in perspective. I think it's important to remind myself that these drugs mean a lot more to some than just a big shot in a brokerage account.
Dew
Do you ever see a day when nat gas will be embraced by the US govt? Seems like China has become pretty fond of it lately.
GNVC UGH!!!! That one's a sore spot for me. My biggest loss ever. Pre-finding IHUB and right after I held HGSI through the Benlysta data, I bought way too much of that turd. I had a bad case of I'm a f#@kin genius itis.
After going over the old posts, the boys here had that one pinned. Too bad I didn't read them first, I might have saved $60k. Oh well.
Lots of hype since he came on board. I was long from $4.50 and sold @ $6 now back in again after the offering. Think I am going to stick with it for a while and see what happens.
Maybe we see some decent follow through data @ Asco on Rida and you can persuade your pal Dew to jump in on Aria with you.
Btw, what's the deal with ARRY? $3 was like a brick wall, huh? I bought after reading the info here. Volume is pathetic.
Anyone here a big fan of Ziop? I took a position after Kirk pushed in. Looking for some BV feedback.
Thanks
- Sure sounds like you think it is over valued. I think it is cheap right now. IMO, the sell-off had little to do with Rida and Berger and more to do with technicals, manipulation and the $6 Feb strike that expired.
-Obviously it is not going to go straight up. But up significantly in 18 months IMO.
We disagree so let's move on, this is getting boring for the board (haha). You have to at least like what you see so far in Ponatinib? Can you throw me a bone on that one?
Amen brother. Gun to your head:
Do you think Merck will file an NDA after ASCO?
"The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!"
All of a sudden the market's perception of the value of a company is gospel?
I respectfully disagree with you (and others) belief that Ariad at a market cap of $735 million is over valued. Rida may not show efficacy in sarcoma (doubt it). I believe it will definitely show value in other indications in the near future. This story is 12 to 18 months away. If Pona turns out to be what I think it will, $735 will be a long way off in our rear view mirror. I have the time to wait.
I appreciate the opposing view point.
This sell-off has nothing to do with institutional investors lack of belief in Rida. It has nothing to do with Berger's character. Imo, it is 100% caused by opportunistic hedge funds and retail shorts just running down a little biotech company that has a history of this sort of thing.
Sorry boys but I believe you are not seeing the forest through the trees here. Rida is a nice sidebar for Aria but the real value of this company lies in Pona. Ariad is on sale right now.
You may just get your opportunity. Obviously I hope you don't. I think it's pretty cheap right now and this IS your opportunity. I also don't take Merck's silence on Rida as some have. I think that's just their S.O.P.
Aria's pipeline may not be majestic as Dew pointed out, but it is pretty damn good. They have 2 years of cash and the possibility of 2 drugs on the market next year (Pona may end up being a blockbuster). They most likely will have some big cash infusions in the form of the $25 mil Merck milestone @ Rida NDA and some sort of Pona regional partnership (I would be speculating if I guessed at what that would be worth).
But for what ever reason, this company seems to always attract pessimism and you may end up being right.
I'm pretty sure Jeffries valued Aria @ $8 on Pona alone.
mcbio and Dew
This nice haircut by the shorts on Aria has your entry written all over it. Your ears have got to be pricked up by now.
mcbio, I have those Ginsu's wrapped up and all ready for you.
Hedgie my boy, good call on this technical sell-off. It's the first one you have gotten right since I have been following this thread for about a year and a half.
I think there is a whole lot of fear mongering the last few days. Many are buying the BS hook,line and sinker. Suddenly a company that was showing such great promise a month ago after the Succeed trail is now an overvalued pos. You guys can fret over the daily trading fluctuations and I will see you in a year from now. I believe my position will be substantially higher by then. The only thing that has changed is that things have gotten much better!
Good luck to all but my suggestion is that you stop selling your shares at serious lows because you are scared. This will be a distant memory soon enough.
Good luck. I will be a seller of one third @ $10. Whether it goes back to $5.25 or not, I can't say. But I am fairly certain it will be somewhere around $10 within a year. Where I will sell 40k as a long term gain. I think you made a mistake, but nice trade anyway.
If I recall correctly, you were beating the "this pig is breaking down" drum @ $3.50 and $5, no? This pig is consolidating and trading just fine if you ask me.
Fair enough. Let's see how this plays out. Maybe I should change my name to Aria2012?
Nobody likes my conspiracy theory. I don't think it is a wild speculation to say that Ariad is a nice fit for Mrk and it might be a tactical error if they ever did decide to make a move. Plus, as far as I can tell, this is par for the course with them.
Cris getting a little wacked today.
4650 on that straddle now. I must say that I find it hysterical that YOU are the one arguing for the Rida NDA over on BV after being this boards Anti-Rida poster child for months. I am not getting their trepidation with regard to the filing.
So are there any early stage drugs that you have invested in?
And may I ask about the other reasons you are not invested? I have a big position and like to hear opinions other than my own.
Thanks
If I may, indulge my conspiracy theory for a minute. I may be looking through rose colored glasses here, but I have got to believe that Mrk has given at least a thought about buying Ariad. So if you are Mrk, why say anything when any Rida announcement would have zero impact your pps, but it would certainly send Ariad's up significantly. So why start essentially bidding against yourself?
I am certainly not counting on a Mrk buyout, I think the company is in a good position without it. Just a logical reason for Mrk not saying anything about the Succeed trial (other than that's what they normally do).
Thanks
Come on now mcbio, you have been on the fence with Ariad for a while now. What do we have to do to close this deal? And how about you Dew? What would you say if I threw in a set of lovely steak knives? If you two jump in, it will make the Ariad board homers fall over themselves with joy!
I think the board has lost a little purpose since the Rida pass/fail debate was put to rest. To me, holding through succeed was the big gamble. I've never been a huge Harv fan, but I think he is more than capable of getting her home from here. Maybe I should go back to running my business and come back next March. I still say Aria will be bought out north of $15 by then. What do you think Ex?
If you are referring to my post, that's definitely not what I was implying. Everything with regard to Merck's handling of Rida so far is pretty consistent with how they handle most of their programs (similar to Rida) from what I can tell. As much as Ariad shareholders would love for Merck to say lots of warm and fuzzy things about Rida, that's not in their agenda (nor in their best interest if they were possibly considering buying Ariad someday).
As far as the bio conference and earnings call, I seriously doubt they are going to announce anything we don't already know. It has been a little dry around here lately and it seems like we have some wishful thinking going on.
As to your points:
1- I haven't looked up the actual definition, but that sure sounds to me like you are calling Passeri incompetent.
2- News flash: Ariad no longer owns Rida. MRK owns Rida. With the god-awful year they had in 2010, why would they drop anchor on Rida now? They have it combined in an awful lot of trials, so I think that shows they are pretty committed to it. They like to keep their cards close to the vest. Also, I don't think they are all that interested in inflating Ariad's pps (at least for one obvious, self-serving reason that I can think of). We should hear something fairly soon on an NDA.
BTW, there is a absolutely beautiful pennant setting up right now, complete with the tightening wedge and diminishing volume. Let's cross our fingers. This time I am buying puts the day of the breakout. I have been beaten over the head about 4 times already and I think I am a believer now.
Now MRK is incompetent???? Just for laughs, is there a company THAT YOU OWN STOCK IN that you feel is run well? First Ole Harv, then Passeri (Curis) and now Merck?????
I bought in twice @ $3 after reading all the dd provided here. Just don't like the pathetically low volume everyday. Let's see where she heads in the next few months.
Thanks to all for the great info
Hmmmm. I know you still think the Vulvo issue has not been put to bed. But why would Arna not at least take the recommendation and do the 12 month rat study? Isn't that just asking for trouble. Maybe Herper is right and Lief needs to go. Seems to me that would be the best idea, especially in light of Contrave's beat down.