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Just remember that valuation from years ago was based on SequestOx and that IP succeeding and creating “treadmill” of products to fill pipeline and launch with branded drugs.
This is a completely different company focused on generics that have lower profitability, more competition and will yield lower forward industry multiple.
I can’t see Nasrat needing to pursue another valuation, but rather expect him to let the markets do their job as company progresses launching and filing new products, improving financials, etc. Looking forward to seeing what products are going to fill pipeline after last CNS gets filed (assuming next year).
Prasco is privately held. Any google search that you’re doing is going to be off, wildly off. In years past even when I would use Dun & Bradstreet for financial reporting on public & privately held companies, the accuracy was consistently unreliable. They were close to $200M in rev almost 20 years ago. I can’t imagine many years later they would only be a fraction of that.
Per last cc, “Once that (Prasco/Burel agreement) materialize and see the amount of sales that becomes a material event and we'll discuss it more.” This is an optimistic phrasing with a wait and see approach coupled high expectations.
Come on, a game changer? It’s a $12M total market.
Not sure I’d want sand there, but to each their own. :)
One platform to short penny stocks is interactive brokers. Margin is still required.
May still come. I was curious whether comp doubled from when he left.
I see your point, but disagree. This isn’t a bench role. 2 years isn’t going to change the level of talent to be the CFO for what’s ahead. The experiences he had in the past don’t bring what Elite needs. Not by a long shot.
Congratulations, I own/run my own business as well. I’ve lived in corporate finance and consulted at Fortune 5 all the way to small privately held companies. The need for finance talent doesn’t change at this level. In fact, it could create more hurdles. This decision sheds more light on the BOD and CEO than some might realize.
BS on what, my opinion based on his prior experience with Elite? Try going back and doing some research before ridiculous posts.
He wasn’t a rookie when he left. Does he have significantly more experience in a couple years time? Sometimes people hit their aptitude ceiling and companies realize it too late. This is like a “love is blind” scenario. Would love to be proven wrong that recent experience has somehow completely changed the talent brought to the table. Very doubtful based on having lived in corporate finance my entire career, but would love to be proved wrong.
I disagree. This move means more is on his shoulders than yoking with a solid CFO to make a move off OTC. There are so many benefits to moving to NASDAQ of the future is as bright as I think it is. It will all come down to how soon does Nasrat want to sell. I’m hoping for later rather than sooner to get current pipeline launched and expand pipeline with more needlemovers vs dopamine agonist-sized products.
Familiarity here is a bonus. I do like comment that someone made that CW is protecting his investment. I just hope he doesn’t cause much damage along the way. Friendly fire sucks, even if unintentional.
Don’t agree with the traitor comment. Who wouldn’t leave for 2x compensation? I don’t fault him here.
My beef is that he isn’t the CFO to level up this role for Elite. That’s my concern. How many times were financials restated under CW? Drove prior company into the ground. He answers questions as if speaking to a kindergarten class. I was really hoping Elite would step up this role as CFO can be playing a critical role over the next few years. Really disappointed. :/
A traitor? Don’t see his mugshot among the Jan 6th crew.
As a finance professional, this is sad. Very sad. Carter never was great. He will not be looked upon favorably if Elite has sights on NASDAQ as he simply doesn’t have the accounting or communication skill set to work with sell side analysts. I’m actually very disappointed Elite couldn’t find anyone better. I was thrilled when he initially left.
Eager to see if they got first to file. Regardless, hopefully we can overcome any legal hurdle in a timely fashion and actually launch in a decent timeframe.
This will be nice. There is one other auth generic. I was trying to find out how much Prasco or prior mfr earned from this in past as a guide, but haven’t come across anything yet. Haven’t devoted much time either…
This will still be a nice market to play in, but it will be a class 2 controlled substance like generic OxyContin. Per IQVIA, after generic entry and losing exclusivity, pricing is expected to drop 66% in 1st year and 74% during the 2nd year as competition ramps up (based on 12 years of oral drug info 2002-2014).
We’re not among the early birds, but hopefully early enough to start getting a piece of the pie. Within a very short timeframe, Vyvanse market may shrink smaller than Adderall ER market, where Elite hasn’t done a great job (unlike IR). Looking forward to seeing what Kirko can do with ER, but DEA has our back against wall.
https://www.iqvia.com/-/media/iqvia/pdfs/institute-reports/price-declines-after-branded-medicines-lose-exclusivity-in-the-us.pdf
Yet another new ID I see.
Everything that I have read, other than this article bit from Reuters, mentioned Hikma’s 180-day protection. The only thing I can think of is whether other shipments are for outside US, but FDA doesn’t dictate approval in other countries, but rather can sometimes validate. Don’t have time to dig further this weekend. Could be misreporting, but would find that out of character for Reuters.
Interesting note about Vyvanse:
“U.S.-based drugmakers Mallinckrodt (MCD0.F) and Viatris (VTRS.O), UK-based Hikma Pharmaceuticals (HIK.L) and Indian drugmaker Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (SUN.NS) confirmed on Thursday they began shipping their generic versions of the drug, which is also approved for a binge-eating disorder in adults.”
Thanks. My guess was a 50% drop in total market early on, but that was just me shooting from the hip. I’d expect even more % to shift to generic by year 3. I’d like to analyze some data to understand brand to Rx better va high level assumptions. I still expect it to be a good market for years with some initial tailwinds due to Adderall shortage challenges driving some Rx this way.
There were no generics included in this number. It wasn’t even for sale then. So yes to be technical generic sales of $0 were included.
Hikma is only generic able to sell, but lots of other generics were approved, but need to wait the 180-day stay. We’ll be late to the party, but looking forward to us getting a little piece of the pie.
Good question - not sure for Tricare. Just know the coverage is absolutely amazing for those that qualify.
Those are all branded, very expensive drugs.
That was IR before split from Lannett. Below 7% as disclosed during cc, but expected to go higher. Much lower for Adderall ER and doesn’t sound like DEA is going to budge much. They expect to 1.5/2X what Lannett did, but that is a small fraction of Adderall ER market.
Clearly not if he can lend Elite money. Probably from the Adderall/Elite split ownership.
We all make our buy and sell decisions, but the future has never looked brighter for the company. Best of luck
On similar note, if we can get solid BE for Concerta that is going to pass muster with FDA after Concerta generics were pulled, it will be a similar position as among first with Generic OxyContin. I believe this was referred to when Nasrat said a pilot or BE study will be done in the fall or next year depending on bed availability and other factors.
Agreed
OxyContin is simply a controlled version of Oxycodone Hcl.
Oxycodone Hcl is not bigger than Adderall ER/IR. Check your sources. Not even close. It is potentially coming off patent, but no approvals until FDA gives green light and companies survive legal gauntlet from Purdue.
Worked for the government. That explains everything.
I think you might be overthinking this. When doing interim placement you look for exact skills. Odds are that these consultants are solely focused on the accounting and SEC reporting. Elite could bring in more talent for transition to NASDAQ, but you have to realize that the cost of interim consultants is usually 2-3x the cost of a FTE in finance, sometimes more depending on the need and market. NASDAQ isn’t their focus yet.
Who is insinuating a P&D? If it was, you’d see Elite do press releases on every channel, insiders would be selling. Company has real products with real rev and profitability. It’s been a slow slog with this leadership and Covid, but the trend will continue, but only now at a faster clip.
Commentary may have minimal impact if any since all buyers/sellers are retail. You do see commentary effect stocks on other exchanges so other exchanges aren’t immune, but exchanges ring stability with diversity of buyers/funds beyond retail. We’re getting closer to when that day makes sense. Not yet.
You’d be surprised what people will say or detail they will go into during reference calls. My guess is Elite used staffing firms that did the reference checks for them and asked different questions than Elite would have.
It’s also why you thoroughly check references and ask questions.
It’s a financial restatement exercise. The comparison to last year would need to be apples-to-apples. All wording in Q’s and K gets adjusted so it can be a lot of work ensuring commentary aligns with financials. They will dictate that Jan is beginning of fiscal year and include same comparison for prior year. The fiscal year will always have 4 quarter’s worth of info, for both current and prior year. I see your point, but they don’t report a shortened year. The months within the reported fiscal year just change.
I didn’t think they were going to go interim finance route, but thrilled they did. Probably more reliable than CFO talent they have had for years.
Discount rate is wildly off here for an OTC stock. This should have been closer to 18%+ back then or even higher now considering the interest rate environment. Market returns expected are historically ~11%. Elite would be considered above average risk and therefore much higher discount rate would apply. This is also why banks either wouldn’t lend to Elite or have such high lending requirements and strings attached.