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JimLur,
A few years ago I was involved (and lost a bundle on) a company called PSIX. The founder was one of the early pioneers of the internet. In a unique and unusual policy they had a senior member of the management team directly addressing shareholder questions and issue via message boards. They did this because they felt the internet was a vehicle for sharing information and they wanted to promote it in that way.
Now I agree that this is not a proper forem for shareholder questions but Do you think you can ask Janet about a Frequently asked Questions page on IDCC's web site?
We all know we have Bill's site wirelessledger.com but it would be very helpful if shareholders can submit questions to the company and IDCC can choose which questions they will answers and how they will answer them. All redundant, off-topic, or questions that can not be answered would be ignored. A disclaimer can be set up with a submission page on IDCC's web site. Only valid registered shareholders can submit questions and their is no guarentee that questions will be answered.
What do you think?
Jai (John Alexander)
Market took a little break the last week (ouch). Hopefully the bulls will be back.
Loved the CC. Very clear and targeted. Liked having Merrit as a featured speaker. New blood with a clear message. Smart move.
The ERICSON watershed proclaimation hurt. That is why our institutional holdings dropped. The analysts still have a bad taste in their mouths so this CC did wonders to help them forget the NOK/SAM fill in the blanks CC. For some reason they went off their usual careful approach to revenue topics and decided to claim victory. It back fired and now I beleive the company has gone back to its careful ways and did a great job in restoring analyst and investors trust.
My favorite part of the CC was the response to the NOKIA documnet request hearing on the 24th. They declared it a non-factor. This means that wahtever short term victories Nokia might achieve in unsealing documents it will have no outcome to get them out of a contract that they agreed to adhere to.
Except for some dancing around questions (like will it be 12 months from today or 12 months from when filed is the Nokia arb to be done, they first answered Yes), I think they gave great answers to the questions. Notice only one question started with congradulations on a great quarter, that tells me these guys are still a little upset.
Now it is up to Merrit to come through. He told us that new licenses are coming. It looks like everything is coming to a head. 2004 could be the year we finally make it (shareholder wealth). We have new licenses (US Starcom, LU, NT, LG ?), Nokia/ Sam resolution, 3G Eric/Nok/Sam, IFX chip sales, deals with China.
Lastly I wonder what happened to government sales. They reorganized to approach this market. Somehow it got lost in this CC with no mention.
I don't think anybody here controls enough shares to make a difference in price (with the exception of teecee). The fact is that historically the stock goes down when the Arb word is mentioned.
Case in point.
On sept. 24th we hit a high for day of $18.30
26-Sep-03 15.53 15.71 15.20 15.50 1,178,100 15.50
25-Sep-03 16.60 16.85 15.75 15.83 1,620,000 15.83
24-Sep-03 18.13 18.30 17.18 17.27 822,500 17.27
After the 8K pertaining news about Samsung arbitration we hit a low 2 days later of $15.20. That is a $3.10 swing.
If Nokia gets access the chances are good we will go down a few points. I won't trade out because this would be only about the second inning of a 9 inning game. So I think most longs are prepared to take yet another haircut to their portfolio.
Charts, Margin and Options.
As an investor I use the tools that I can understand to give me an "edge". I do not understand charts but I'd like to. Technical trading can help if used properly. This is not to say base all your trades on it. Some positions are long some are short. Some shares of IDCC are long and some shares are for trading. Charts can help when the best time to do trades are. I beleive in discipline trading and taking profits when you can.
As for Margin, it is a tool that an investor can use to make money. I use it and try not to abuse it. When I go into a position heavy I will use buying power to get me the amount of shares I feel comfortable with. When the play is over I reduce the margin amount. Margin can be dangerous when you "max out" your available amounts. I now make sure I have enough room on margin to avoid calls.
Lastly options, very tricky. I've never really made money on them mainly because I don't use them properly. I still feel if you understand them they can be a good investor tool for the right person. For me it is like playing craps at the tables. I'm a BlackJack player and have been for years. I understand the game and enjoy it. Craps has better odds but I never feel comfortable playing because I don't understand it.
Basically, people should use the tools provided for them within their own comfort and knowledge zone. I do not beleive the blanket statements that "Don't buy on Margin" or "Don't use Charts" are correct. Understanding how to use these tools are the key to success. Just like understanding of why you invest in any particular company.
Why?
Anybody have a clue on why we are moving so fast?
Give it a rest spree. Danny is and has always been extreme valuable poster in regards to wall street. The talent pool on this board is unbeleivable. We should learn from these posters like Data_Rox and Danny Detail and not attack them because of their opinions on certain topics. You have to understand almost everyone who posts here has a financial stake in IDCC and wants the stock to rise including Data_rox and Danny Detail.
From past discussions I thought that this $28 million amount is related to the $180 to $220 amount IDCC claimed as a trigger from the ERICSON settlement. The company was supposed to receive a percentage of the settlement. IDCC claimed the settlement was ERICSON's $54 million. The insurance company is claiming that the settlement is ERICSSON $54 mil + NOK/SAM $200 mil.
Anyone know if this is true or not?
Who owes who?
"INTERDIGITAL COMMUNICATIONS CORP. (IDCC) Filed a lawsuit against Federal Insurance Co. alleging that under an insurance reimbursement agreement it is owed $28 million in fees and other costs it paid related to patent litigation between Interdigital and Ericsson Inc. Tuesday Close: $17.75 Net Change: Up 3 cents % Change: 0.2% Volume: 227,725 Shares ."
In this statement it sounds like the insurance carrier OWES IDCC. If this is true then they already spent the cash ($28 million) and if they win they will receive this sum from the carrier INCREASING the cash position by $28 million. Another question for IR.
Ronnie,
I think you need to narrow the scope. Pick 2 or 3 questions from the list that you feel are important. Way too many questions for a CC.
I'm not busting a nut. I have no opinion either way since I have no legal background. I'd just like to have some board lawyers expand on this. I think it will be pretty relevant to the short term movement of the stock on the 24th.
loophole73,
I would really like to hear your take on this post by olddog967.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1676666
Without any kind of legal background it is hard to put this in perspective. As one of our foremost legal experts your thoughts would be very much appreciated.
OT: Data_Rox
"just be careful not to over invest in that dream"
You sound like my wife. LOL.
My biggest concern now is the 24th. I'm sure earnings will be great thanks in part to the fine analysis of Ronnie and mschere and the performances of NEC, SHARP and ERICSSON.
The topic that olddog967 has brought up regarding the public documents has me concerned about the short term price movement.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1676666
I would have like to have seem more of the board lawyers comment on this specifically loop.
OT: GE_Jim,
I'm all for understanding technical trading and I'm going to purchase John Murphy's technical analysis of the financial markets.
Found this site that says IDCC's technicals are very good right now.
http://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basicplus.cgi?ID=sample&symbol=IDCC&85314
I do not trade in and out of IDCC too much. I keep a core holding and continue to add. I have been making some great calls as of late and want to add some technical skills to my fundamental methods of analyzing stocks.
In the presentation yesterday, IDCC mentioned that they may be working with several Chinese telecommunication carriers. It is a must listen to for all those invested. The China strategy seems solid and although it is still early this may be the oportunity for IDCC to play role reversal on QCOM and start idemnifying Chinese companies for wireless technology. Wouldn't that be a hoot. China balks at QCOM's 5% rates and chooses IDCC's 1.5% rate for 3G and QCOM is left out in the cold like they did to IDCC for years.
I now turn this post over to Data_Rox where he can shoot this theory full of holes.
The "big hit" that may happen if Nokia gets granted access is predicted because of what happened when SAMSUNG announced arbitration.
Look at the price drops after the arbitration announcement.
29-Sep-03 15.59 15.64 14.80 15.32 1,090,500 15.32
26-Sep-03 15.53 15.71 15.20 15.50 1,178,100 15.50
25-Sep-03 16.60 16.85 15.75 15.83 1,620,000 15.83
24-Sep-03 18.13 18.30 17.18 17.27 822,500 17.27
23-Sep-03 17.93 18.30 17.92 18.14 531,800 18.14
We went from a high of $18.30 to a low of $14.80 based on news that was really a non-event.
24-Sep-2003
Other Events
Item 5. Other Events.
InterDigital Communications Corporation ("Company") announced today that Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. ("Samsung") has notified the Company of Samsung's election to initiate the contractual dispute resolution process
So if NOKIA wins we should see a short term pull back. This is because the likelyhood of a settlement will be less than if they lose and the time it will take to get the case resolved will likely be greater.
Technical trading has been around for years. I never took the time to understand it and would like to. Their is data that supports facts that by understanding trends in volume and price movements one can predict where stock pricess are headed. For the past year or so I've traded stricky on fundamentals and beleive firmly in my methods. I feel that understanding technicals can be helpful to individual investors. So lets put away the anger and lets here what he has to say.
What makes a good board is to keep an open mind to other peoples opinions. I do not trade in and out of IDCC but I would like to learn about technical trading. Like it or not GE_Jim knows technical trading and understanding the patterns that can help people make money in the market.
GE_Jim,
The trading patterns I've observed in the last 12 months makes me beleive that we are headed toward $18.50 a guess at the resistant point. I've used no tools and have very little knowledge of technicals.
What does your tools say about that price?
Next, I think we break $20 on a material event(Nokia being denied). I also beleive we will have higher lows ($16.00) in case Nokia is granted access. I'm not sure if technical trading takes into account earnings releases and material events?
Lastly I have no clue as to what the price would be if Judge Lynn denies. We hit $28 back when everone thought Nokia was a done deal. I'm guess that would be a ceiling and we would need some sort of discount off that price ($3-$5 meaning $23-$25).
Also on an OFF TOPIC subject what do you think of TFSM from a technical stand point?
Thanks.
Nothing to Discuss.
No need to look further than that. Everyone is in waiting mode. We have 11 days till earnings and 22 Days until Judge Lynn addresses the sealed documents. All we can do is re-hash old information.
IMO, we reach $18.50 by or after earnings. IDCC will have a hard time breaking $20 without a material event e.g. new contract. If Judge Lynn denies Nokia's motion we should break $20. If she allows Nokia access then we may see $16 again and anyone who has any stock in the company that makes Maalox should see a substantial rise stemming from product use by IDCC shareholders (LOL).
My .02 cents is that they are preparing to declare NEC a 3G trigger.
after hours update
Time (ET) After Hours
Price After Hours
Share Volume
16.25 $ 17.40 400
16.25 $ 17.40 100
16.25 $ 17.40 100
16.25 $ 17.35 200
16.05 $ 17.31 100
16.05 $ 17.31 300
16.04 $ 17.31 100
16.03 $ 17.27 100
16.01 $ 17.34 100
16.01 $ 17.38 5000
16.01 $ 17.25 75900
16.00 $ 17.39 100
16.00 $ 17.38 200
16.00 $ 17.40 100
I was talking about the 2G numbers not the 3G rates.
My point is that this battle makes me understand why IDCC gave into ERICSSON on past royalty payments. Where would we be now if ERICSSON didn't settle. Court delays, appeals, maybe sharp doesn't renew, RIMM doesn't sign.
The object of the game is and will continue to be future revenue streams. IDCC knows this and that is why they made the ERICSSON deal. If they decide to cut Nokia a deal on past revenue so be it. I will not hammer management for selling out because it would be good business going foward.
So if Judge Lynn denies Nokias motion I beleive it is in the best interest in all involved to cut Nokia a deal so that future revenues, 01/01/04 will not be affected. Make them an offer that they should not refuse and get the 2G mess over with. If you can get NOKIA and SAM settle prior to 01/01/04 and have .5 and .4% revenues generating starting on that date it would be well worth $100 to $200 million in one time revenues.
Right now I think it should all be about recurring revenue. The line in the sand should the .5% and .4% rates for 2G. Those rates should be set in stone and non-negotiable. All other aspects of the deal can be put on the table.
The 3G rate is a different animal. Obviously IDCC wants NEC numbers of 1.5% and Nokia wants no part of that number. Now that we can see what the company must go thru to collect recurring revenue based on percentage we can understand why they couldn't wait on the ERICSON deal and needed to get that done. 3G licensing is not going to be fun. Nokia is kicking and screaming and dragging its little mini-me (SAMSUNG) over a .5% rate on 2G. Can you imagine what the war would be like over 1.5%.
The best deals are the ones that are win-win. If Nokias position becomes weakened on Nov. 24th by Judge Lynn throwing out the motion then IDCC should get creative and try to get a deal done. The faster 2G gets solved the closer 3G will get resolved. If NOKIA executives come off a court loss with a substantial savings of real cash they may be willing to sign. If they win in court they will not sign until all aspects of arbitration are fully exhausted. If IDCC could get a 3G done on top that would be incrediable. But I think that for 3G we will have to go through this stuff all over again. Get a trigger company, go to arbitration, stall, etc..etc.
Also, look back at the Ericson deal. Everyone thought the settlement would include payments of hundreds of millions of dollars, we got $34 plus license money.
Ericson was not a bad deal. It allows us to generate $5 to $6 million in revenue per quarter. Nokia would generate $20 and SAM would generate $5 on 2G alone.
The more I think about it the more I'm thinking it would be in the best interest of shareholders and the company for that matter to use the NOKIA funds as leverage to get a 3G rate. Even if we win in arbitartion we are still faced with possibly years worth of fighting for a 3G rate. The only problem is I don't think NOKIA wants any part of an IDCC rate above.75% or even .5%.
Ok I'm Nokia, I'll pay .25 cents on the dollar, .5% and .4% percent on 2G and 1.25% on 3G take it or leave it, deal done tommorrow.
Do you know what that deal would do to IDCC's stock price?
My point is not about "letting Nokia off the hook". My point is that past revenues become pratically irrelevant when wall street calculates future values and current stock prices. What the 300 mil will equate to would be about $6 a share. The .5% and 1.25% deal would be worth at minimun $30 to $35 a share above the trading price of the stock today.
At this point I might be willing to pay $300 million for that 1.25% 3G rate. That would establish a bottom rate for the entire cell phone sector for years to come.
I've not in favor of letting Nokia off the hook. I'm speculating on what it would take to get a deal done.
If they did cave on amounts owed and held firm on future percentages I would not be unhappy. Wall Street loves future revenues and treats past ones with less regard. Lets say for argument sake IDCC caves on 2002 and 2003 revenue and accepts .25 cents on the dollar. If NOKIA and SAM agree to pay .5% band .4% starting 01/01/2004 it would add $25 million a quarter going foward.
If IDCC could project revenues of $50 million a quarter and EPS of $20 million a quarter or .40 cents a share this stock would fly. It could eaily get to $50 a share in this scenario.
In my opinion Nokia is going to want to wrap everything up in a nice settlement bundle. Reduce past royalities by significant amounts(25% of current bill), agree to the .5% and .4% royalties on future amounts on 2G, reduce past 3G royalties to ZERO and cap 3G royalties between .5% and .75%.
This is what I think it would take to settle Nokia today. I think IDCC rather take its chances in arbitration court than caving to Nokia at this point.
Its really great to have you back Jim. We were all pulling for you and wishing for a speedy recover.
This was the second time in 2 months Forbes mentioned IDCC. In my opinion we are on the Radar screen. If earnings are good people will buy in. We just need the consistancy of profitable quarters and BAM, back to $18.
No I'm not done with the idea of starting another law suit. I still think that IDCC should initiate one suit now on an LG or MOT. And don't be surprised if this happens. Qualcomm used law suits in an extremely successful manor. IDCC can hit infringers and win. Just because I think the next few months will be positive for shareholders doesn't make me change my opinion about going after the IPR freeloaders.
I beleive the difference in this quarter than other quarters will be consistancy. I remember a couple of years ago when IDCC came out with an $8 million dollar quarter. OUCH. With quarter to quarter steady revenue and earning growth this company will be noticed. Now recurring licensing revenues are solid. If costs do not increase substantially Wall Street will reward us because they will be able to predict the earnings growth instead of being surprised.
We all ready have had an analyst upgrade based on licensee's hand set sales. We have had two metions in Forbes in the last two months. I've been up and down on IDCC like many frustrated investors but with all the psotives from our licensees and a solid court date on the calendar I'm back on the Bull side.
OT: Bulldozer,
I honestly did not even read the post. It was a general response to the political posts on the board. I do remember Jim on a number of occassions stating that he did not allow political discussions on this board. I think we all should respect his wishes.
It is almost 4 years since I discovered IDCC. My first time was beginners luck. Got in prior to the run up and sold out for a profit. Came back when the price went back down.
Let's hope that this unsealing issue doesn't get dragged out. Judge Lynn sounded like she doesn't like nonsense. Nokia and its little mini-me Samsung do not want to see another Qualcomm emerge so they will do whatever it takes to not pay.
I'm adding prior to earnings. I've made a killing in CLST and will move my profits over to IDCC. I strongly beleive that this will the last chance at this entry price. I'm expecting $18+ after earnings then back to the 20's when Nokia gets throw out on its legal brief by Judge Lynn.
This stock has too many eyes on it now not to explode upward even without Nokia/Sam settlement. The forbes article of Friday was the icing on the cake for me.
If in fact we do pull the numbers Ronnie is predicting it will cause heavy buying. For the first time in years or ever for that matter, IDCC will have steady sequential revenue and profit per share growth rates. Also I beleive a loss to Nokia/Samsung is pretty much priced into the stock. A blow to Nokia case would cause buying based on the chances of success.
Bottom line November is looking pretty good from here.
OT - Come on guys. We all know religion and polictics should not be discussed on this board. If Jim were here he would state that. Too many boards get ruined by political discussions.
So lets not just start going off into these tangent political discussion while Jim is recovering.
Norfolk,
I wish your Dad a full and speedy recover. He has enriched all our lives with his wisdom and many people here, myself including have a great deal if respect and admiration for him.
Jai
Low volume/bad stock price.
I really thought we were ready for a rebound to the $18.00 range with all the positives coming from licensees. Looks like nobody wants to buy based on the 340,000 shares traded about 1/3 the average volume. This is like watching water boil with the gas not turned on.
I'm not here to have "fun" just to make money and learn. In Danny Details excellent posts regarding sell side analyst one can understand how IDCC hurt their street image and credibility by declaring NOKIA done and ERICSON a "Watershed" alluding that many more licenses will follow.
In my opinion and having the ability to be a monday morning quarterback, this was a mistake that will affect us in the short run. I'd like to see the company make less mistakes. I'm trying to view this investment objectivily and not with rose colored glasses. Everyone makes mistakes and as long as they learn from them they will be fine.
So the "smiling" comment bothered me in the fact that we have no news. I have always been of the opinion that these guys need to add some top level talent to the team. I would have rather spent the $32 million on personel then share buy backs that really don't help much. As a shareholder I have a right to question why things are done and what is being done to correct mistakes. In my opinion , they should hire some top level executives to help them deal with analysts and wall street better and make sure information is handled correctly.
Where have all the posters gone?
Sounds like everyones all posted out. No news from KOP. Trading pattern really stinks. We get an upgrade in earnings and the share price goes down. Everyone is wait and see until earnings mid november.
On Rip's smiling, I just wish these guys would keep their mouths shut until they deliver real news. Way too many "catch phrases" for my taste. Reminds me of the bulletian board pump and dump. The long term shareholders understand the day in and day out battle and difficulty involved in dealing with NOK/SAM/MOT/ERIC etc. The analyst's that just jumped on board like "Marsala" don't. I really think the "Watershed" comment really hurt the companies credibility. That being said I'd rather see more cautious comments regarding progress then bold predictions that do not pan out.