Id feel bad for me if i owned commons

My recommendation is to take the 16x return on jps and call it a day instead of waste your time being a moron

Congratulations on gaining a penny on a security that has no security in the pending restructuring.

Shares are technically underwater in this restructuring

Fnma common shareholders is not a party to this litigation.

Not me. You should swap to jps

A very ignorant perspective you have my son

Spspa conversion destroys the common investment thesis. Can you point to any pending litigation that stops this? If not, will you consent that you lack standing for the recovery you claim to expect?

Good luck with that — strategies that run on luck do not appeal much to me but they do work

yes, both are subject to whether they are in conservatorship or not as conservatorship prevents equity distributions.

companies are retaining earnings and will eventually exit

intrinsic value is relevant.

your analysis is for traders. i'm a long term investor.

commons have no intrinsic value and should be avoided by anyone who is trying to be responsible about the securities that they own

200k shares of common is $100k i think.

and that's a fair point estimate for intrinsic value too

200k of FMCCJ is like $600k but worth $10M.

that's the difference.

You should sell everything non gse pref and just buy gse pref

Enjoy gambling on technically worthless (in a spspa convers Restructuring)
Common shares

Bernstein got sworn in as cea director last week. Should be attending nec meetings now

Mostly. Yes. Biden admin action in the next several

the longer this goes, the greater the spspa gets, and it is already more than the available post restructuring equity value.

so i would argue that commons are vanquished no matter how long this takes from here

good try though

Yeah right. Jps would say no. Spspa would say no.

Sounds right. God speed to yout gambles

I think his name was patrick. Timhoward717

1. I do not get paid for posting
2. My girlfriend was surprised by this. She also thought I got paid. I was surprised that she didnt know.
3. I will get paid when this restructuring happens because I own shares that I expect will work out favorably.
4. I do not have a quota.
5. Jeff, why do you lie?
6. “He said don’t encourage him to post by commenting? Wow, what a hater.” - my gf
7. If jps are cancelled they would have to pass this through receivership. The common shares you own would be worthless.
Hope that helps. It is amazing to me how long you have followed this and how oblivious you are to the restructuring mechanics. God speed my dear friend.

Commons are largely in my opinion owned and bought by people who lack knowledge of cap stack right now which is the majority of people in my view. So yeah who knows they could surge to 90 cents on blind optimism without ever really having any intrinsic value. Why not. Anything could happen but I would not bet on it

Ive been aware of these securities but have no idea how to determine if there is any value or hope for value here. So far no real explanation has been given that i could follow that outlines how close or far this one is. Idk.

Yep. Mostly for the lawyers in my view.

looking for a 100% gain. lol.i'm not sure anyone here is doing that. but idk.

yes, improvements have happened but you can't look past the fact they are in conservatorship and exiting requires treasury restructuring its equity

Wasting your time with commons. Spspa wave

Commons lack dilution protection. Spspa liq pref converted to common would yield a haircut. Good luck

good point.

not sure i understand the big emphasis of these warrants. they would be valuable if the spspsa liquidation preference was less than the equity post restructuring, but the government's own estimates of its spspa fair value vs gross investments reveal that even the government does not believe that it can get face value here and will be taking a haircut to its high water mark that keeps going up.
https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2022/notes-to-the-financial-statements8.pdf

with this in mind, you have a haircut spspa restructuring

the cbo report points out that in a haircut restructuring it thinks the warrants are worth less than $100M
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-08/56496-GSE.pdf

I just don't see the warrants as mattering that much, if at all.

$30M jps par would be pretty good. I wish I could secure that kind of bag. Unfortunately at this point I just do not really see a reasonable path of achieving that outcome unless the price of the jps dumps significantly for an extended period of time. Like > -75% from here for > 1 year.

I expect things to start brightening up from here. the lamberth litigation could be worth something which would put a floor in the prices for jps (fnma common are excluded from this litigation).

then, jared bernstein just got sworn in yesterday as director of the cea.

okay. that sounds like a familiar framework.

i've been familiar with these lehman pfds for some time but never really understood them, they were too complicated.

i was reading through your post history and came across this board.

Liking how this board tracks the lamberth trial even though fnma commons are not part of it

I have no idea but i do understand restructurings and priorities and how those play through. It sounds like you may not understand what is going on here very well yourself and are just gambling. That is not my style. I am sure someone here has a perspective

You seem knowledgeable about this. The
Price here seems to indicate big upside but low probability. Like 10000x and near zero

No. Look at this guys post history. He often refers to himself as the devil and ends posts with “go figure..”

Is there any value in these lehman securities

Look in this post you sound rational. Interesting. You have two personalities, one of which has some sort of speech impediment

How close are you gonna get to $20m par

Yep but scraps are not too bad when you are at 6 cents on the dollar

lamberth litigation might be a few bucks for pfd, maybe a dime for fmcc, but $0 for fnma.

collins en banc might be something.

the reason commons are worthless is notice how the government values its spspa position with a cumulative loss of $66B

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2022/notes-to-the-financial-statements8.pdf