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JDSU looks like a solid breakout today. I expect low 4's in early Jan.
JDSU breaking out of a 6 month pennant on heavy volume. Measures to 5.5 target from this level. Currently 3.58. Doubled my position today.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=jdsu,uu[h,a]daclyiay[dc][pb50!b200!c200!c50!c13!c21!f][v...
>> People are people, even telemarketers. <<
True enough, but if everyone screamed in the phone when they heard a telemarketer I think the business would eventually dry up.
I think this explains much of the gold action:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kaplan/kaplan092503_snippet.html
Also, look at the US Dollar today. Basically flat. Gold action looks manipulated. Mostly likely today's action involved the FED or PPT not wanting gold to set off alarm bells about potential problems w/this recovery so they slam gold.
Best plan is to buy late today or tomorrow with a 5% stop loss.
>> Check the price of Gold in Euros <<
Yea, but you can do the same for Yen. While gold hasn't broken out yet in Euro terms in Yen terms it's keeping pace with the Dollar.
Silver has been acting well as have other base metals during this move. Looks like a solid move to me. It's surprising how many have ignored the best performing sector for 3 years running.
That said many of the gold plays are getting expensive so I've been selling into strength and rotating into big cap laggards such as KGC for liquidity.
I'd look at KGC. It's been consolidating for some time now. Practically hedge free and debt free. It's the cheapest major that's unhedged imho.
>> but the bear is dead. <<
Hardly, the bear is busy raising her new cubs (bond, housing bubbles).
Greenie is merely delaying the need to cleanse ourselves of bad debt (Gov, corporate and consumer).
Everyone is so excited about the "recovery". But given interest rates and the economic stimulus so far it should be far more robust. Once it starts to falter the real panic will begin to set in.
Being long some gold issues myself (not NEM currently) just wondering if with your NEM short you've looked at gold and the US Dollar Index as well.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/aug152003.html
I pretty much agree with the above read. If you pull up a 1 year on gold the pennent is much easier to see. The breakout point looks to be around 364 currently, but I think it'll take a close above 368 to light another fire under the sector.
Gold 1-year
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$GOLD,uu[h,a]daclyiay[dd][pf][vc60][iUb14!La8,17,9]&...
I'm somewhat bothered by the strength of Dollar, but today gold is up with both the Euro down and the US Dollar up.
As long as gold holds above 350 the bullish scenario is still in place imho. I do think since gold stocks are way ahead of the metal that if gold does breakout the upside of many of the names will probably underperform the metal since a 1% rise in POG normally equates to a 3-4% move in shareprices.
On a rise to 400+ POG NEM could easily hit the high 40's as the market cap of the entire sector is very small. Institutional money has to go somewhere...and that's quite often NEM.
The volume on WHT is almost non-existant. I wouldn't consider it open at this point as it hasn't traded a share in over 30 minutues. Yesterday it held up fine.
>> KGC....damn! I just bought this. Bye Bye! Looking for another junior I guess. Any ideas? <<
Yea, RIC and MNG still look good at these levels.
OT - Dan
Between the CBs, the FED and our politicians it's amazing we have any economy at all.
I can't imagine any ending for this mess other than 4 digit gold eventually.
**** Gold related *****
>> By the time it ends the western CBs will be purchasing gold at sky high prices rather than just limiting sales IMHO. <<
I've read a book that says precisely that. In the past CB's tend to sell the bottoms and buy the tops.
If more people knew that their governments were selling gold precisely when it's still near 20 year lows and world instability (not to mention to the financial system) are going down the tubes...they'd be outraged.
Oh, well. Let them eat....whatever scraps they can find.
Zeev, I think you have to consider a few things w/respect to gold.
While the world is not going to return to a gold standard anytime soon, there are some countries that are moving back in that direction. Look at the introduction of the Malaysian Dinar. If more arab/muslim countries go that route the incremental increase in demand will be enough to send prices much higher (not counting the effects of a lower dollar from here). Just like oil and other commodities it's the incremental increase in demand/supply that sets the price. Back when oil prices where approaching $10 just a few years ago the worlds oversupply stood at less than 10%. Small changes in demand/supply can have a dramatic effect.
You also have the China factor. For the first time in over 60+ years they are now allowing their citizens to own gold and silver.
Lastly consider competitive devaluations. Richard Russel has mentioned this again of late as have others. Almost every country wants a lower currency now in this slow-growth environment. However, they must devalue against something. Ultimately hard assets will win in such a scenario as interest rates around the world push toward 0% and central banks print money like mad.
I do think that gold is largely tied to the US Dollar as you state, but there are enough other factors in place to make the gold bull robust over the next 5-10 years (imho).
Surprised there's no discussion about gold and silver here. Definately where the action was today. Silver was up 6% today. That's a huge move for a commodity.
The HUI broke a triple top today.
Pull up charts of the HUI, $gold, $silver, CBJ, NEM, MNG, BGO, CDE, SSRI, etc.
Going to be fun times if silver manages to close over 5.15 in the next few days/weeks and/or gold manages to break 375 on this run.
Holding silver (CDE) as a play on hard assets vs paper assets, but it's also a good play if the economy continues to recover as an industrial metal. Also China has now allowed it's citizen to own silver for the first time in 50+ years. China's gold exhange was opened a few months ago, silver was opened about 1.5 weeks ago I believe. Silver has been basing for almost 2 years now. Today looks like a breakout to me. I'm bullish on both gold and silver here, but in any precious metals run silver typically outperforms by the end.
Currently holding RIC, CBJ and CDE within the sector.
Enjoy reading this thread. Going back to lurking for now.
Good thread for PM stocks and my prior silver postings:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=19098240
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=19099442
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=19103233
Utilities >> The big day is easily explained when you look at the weekly chart. <<
Hmmmmm. Now I subscribe to TA, but I think the tax bill passage in the house and senate extending dividend taxation at 15% through 2008 had a little more impact.
While many of the utilities have run in the near term, many are still well below "historical" levels. As such they have dividends and good capital appreciation potential looking out 1-2+ years.
I'm not so sure you'll get your near term double top.
In the present bond/interest environment, 4-6%+ payouts look very good. Mutuals funds that specialize in just div paying stocks are going to look very attractive going forward. Minimizes the downside of owning individual issues, but you still get the nearly free tax payout.
Long TE, CNP and RRI. Favorite is TE for the short term (TA, short interest and dividend ratio), CNP for "surest" 50%-100% move over the next 1-2 years (sale of TGN, massive debt reduction next year), and RRI for the long term.
By the way, have read your posts for a long time and have a great respect for you, just disagree on your opinion here.
TE running hard. Up 7% with only 2 mil+ shares traded. Still 27 mil shares short. Utilities were upgraded by GS due to tax law changes (duh). Should see 14-15 on this run with more possible given shares short.
Been buying more TE the last few days and today. Tax plan cleared house and senate. Bush will sign. 15% dividend and capital gains rate until 2008. Decent earnings and nice dividend. Like DUK and RRI, TE's cap ex will be dramatically reduced next year clearing the way for the dividend to be increased again.
Nice 27 mil shares short as well and good technicals.
Looking for 13.5 to 15 on this run near term.
>> Joined you STKL long 5.48. <<
Given earnings it looks overextended. I like EPEX far more.
Do you know what these companies really do? Or are you simply relying on the stock screener?
I prefer to look at the market first, then sectors, then pick individual stocks within the sectors I like best.
SBAC is losing massive amounts of money and has a huge debt load....no thanks.
PROX looks better, but if they continue to lose money and given their low cash position they may have to dilute (issue more shares).
Given how far both have run of late I'm not enticed. Hope it works out for you if you play them. Given the market cap of PROX it could certainly continue to run, but it's gamble. What do I know about their business, their competitors and how will their business be impacted during the next 12 months? I have no clue.
At this point I'd rather stick to lagging utils/IPPs and lagging natural gas plays. HOFF and EPEX still look good in natural gas plays. Still like RRI and CNP in utils.
Shorted the bio's using BBH at 103.4.
Don't short individual issues much anymore, but will short sector plays or the qqq's from time to time.
Mostly long overall, but very specific in energy (RRI, HOFF, EPEX).
Also long some BGO (gold) going into earnings tomorrow.
>> How can anyone think about fundamentals with stocks like EBAY, EXPE, AMZN, and the like with such massive trailing multiples <<
Easy, I stick to gold stocks, utilities and natural gas plays.
Have only shorted the QQQ's from time to time. Otherwise I'm almost always long something and have had a very good year.
Nice to see you getting more and more into the golds in the last few months. (or maybe that's only msloft). Not sure.
Joined you in DROOY as well (2.62 to 2.66 today).
Also bought a lifetime membership to I-Hub.
For those who are both FA and TA types I encourage you to check out HOFF. Should reap the rewards of the next natural gas drilling cycle. Also broke out above a 1-year downtrend line from 13 today.
In HOFF sub $3 FWIW.
SARS - I never said I wasn't worried about the perception of the problem. Nor do I feel the virus is trivial. However, I do have confidence that our medical systems will prove more than adequate. Between quaranteen, test and possible treatment options I don't see millions dying.
It will be interesting to see what the death rate is in the US vs other parts of the world. That 4% rate included 3rd world China (at least from a medical standpoint). I'm guessing over time that rate will drop considerably as we learn about ways to treat it (or at least the symptoms).
Yea, and that assumes that everyone gets it, they are unable to create a test for it let alone a cure or at least a treatment option. Yea that's realistic.
How many die from car crashes, smoking, heart attacks etc?
This is being blown way out of proportion. Seems like there are some who actually want a deadly outbreak so they can scare everyone.
I agree SARS could be a problem, but part of the problem is the hyping of SARS. It's only been lethal in 4% of it's cases. There are 2200 cases world wide and 80 deaths. You mis-quoted those figures and said they were New York only.
The perception of SARS is a much bigger problem than SARS itself imho.
S&P Upgrades Reliant to Accumulate
S&P's Stock Picks and Pans
Archives
Tuesday April 01, 2003 (3:35 pm ET)
S&P Upgrades Reliant to Accumulate
Also: Analysts' opinions on Best Buy and Hispanic Broadcasting. Plus more...
Reliant Resources (RRI): Upgrades to 4 STARS (accumulate) from 3 STARS (hold) Analyst: Craig Shere
Reliant is up 8%, as it announced a $6.2 billion bank refinancing package that alleviates near-term liquidity issues. Management says the terms of the package are in keeping with previous assumptions. S&P sees fears about the recent FERC decisions and staff report as overblown. FERC has not acted on recommendations of profit disgorgement (another lengthy issue, if it arises) and Reliant believes it is still owed net receivables from California after refunds. With shares trading near the bottom of the energy-merchant group based on the price/book value, S&P now see Reliant's discount as unjustified.
>> I bought back an average size RRI position today. <<
Wouldn't the banks have considered the CA/FERC issues prior to the refi? It looks like it wasn't much of an issue to the banks. Other than near term uncertainty, I don't expect that it'll be much of an issue going forward. It was mentioned on the CC that if CA took away RRI's trading license in CA that EBIT would actually increase in the near term.
Don't you think the market is making too much of this?
RE: IPP's >> However, with this debt comes some strong income producing properties that are selling a product that we all use and will be required in the future. GOOD LTBH IMO at this level. <<
Exactly. Unlike most other sectors out there the need for electricity continues to grow over time...even in recessions.
Hence, my very large exposure to this sector.
Hope a few of you jumped on RRI breakout
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=rri,uu[h,a]daclyiay[dc][pb50!b200!c200!c50!c13!c21!f][vc....
Might be the last time for low 4's.
Broke out of pennent formation since mid Dec.
Broke above 13 and 21 ema's.
Broke above 2 year downtrend line since the mid 30's.
I don't suspect the 200 dma will be much resistance.
In the next couple of weeks the 50 day moving aves should cross the 200's which should encourage another round of new technical/momentum buyers.
>> Wish these IPP's would just get up over $5 so they can be margined. <<
Switch to E*Trade then. 50% marginable from $1.5 to $3 and 100% marginable above $3.
RRI definately having a breakout today. Last chance to buy low 4s?
RRI broke out of a sym triangle today forming since Dec 2002.
Should target uppper 5's.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=rri,uu[h,a]daclyiay[pf][vc60][iub14!la8,17,9][J10911449,....
FERC meeting tomorrow and potential refi on Friday should be supportive.
You'll have to annotate your own trendlines to see.
FERC meeting is tomorrow.
(Edit) Doing just fine Bernard. But how are you doing? Did you ride most of your gold stocks down for a 30-50% haircut?
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=18566061
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=18606734
Thanks for asking though. I'm sure you're concerned about my portfolio with all your useful microCRAP picks.
>> bernard..wish i had a nickel for every time youve mentioned those <<
If you did it would probably be enough for several thousand shares...enough to move these micro of micro-caps.
I've long ago concluded that Bernard has an agenda.
>> I think we will have a more "meaningful" through around lunch <<
Does that mean you see a better bounce coming around lunch or new lows coming around lunch time?
I'm guessing bounce, but would appreciate if you clarified. Thanks.
Any comments on ADRX here before earnings? No position currently. Can't decide if I want to buy a partial or full position prior to earnings. Stock seems to be anticipating bad news come Wend morn.
aj...what's the stockcharts.com symbol on the 10 year note again. Sorry, had it at one time, but I appear to have misplaced it.
Thanks.
>> Am starting to re-enter the gold sector. <<
Agree golds are acting well, but I'd still be concerned that if the markets go down further near term and then bounce that at least short term gold stocks will get sold off again in favor of more aggressive issues.
Still watching.
(edit) I don't have the numbers in front of me anymore since it's been a while since I was in EP, but your best bet is to search SI.
Find me on SI and I'll send you a PM. Can't do that here.