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And all of that proves what, exactly?
If the Palestinians didn't want to be occupied they shouldn't have started the war.
I haven't been able to locate the April 2002 revision. Kayaker doesn't seem to have it on his iHub list, and his list of April 2002 post on SI is rather long, so I haven't had time to hunt through it yet. Even without it, you got the general direction right, and your timing was within about a month in each case.
Politics
I do not see an oil embargo as either likely nor feasible.
CORRECT.
I do not think that the Pakistan/India situation will evolve into a "full war" situation...
CORRECT.
The War on Terror, will, however, continue, and eventually ends up with an actual conflagration on Iraq's soil later this year (Iraq may be tempted to "arise" the Islamic world to its defense by a preemptive move against Israel). Actual "hostilities" will not start before next September at the earliest, possibly later (it is a "bitch" to conduct desert warfare in the summer, and even a military buildup will have to wait well after July/August). For political reasons (elections) the actual military activities will probably start in October.
SABER RATTLING, U.N. INSPECTIONS, AND BUILDUPS. NO ACTUAL WAR YET.
These events, strangely enough, could precipitate a year end powerful rally in the markets.
THE RALLY PEAKED ABOUT A MONTH EARLY.
Economy
...by mid 2002, the market will start and sense the second dip (the consumer led recession I have discussed a number of times)...
CORRECT.
I do not expect to see any inflation of major import in the next 12 months...
CORRECT.
This excess liquidity, however, will not by itself greatly stimulate demand, just enough to provide for mild GDP growth, peaking not much above 3.5% at the next peak...
GDP GROWTH PEAKED AT 5.0% IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2002.
Valuation/technical analysis
It is quite clear that valuation models (the type that George and Yardeni have been teaching us) are going to keep a ceiling on the market over the next 12 months.
THEY SURE DID!
...I have the current bull move to continue until the "psychology" of the market breaks.
IT DIDN'T TAKE LONG FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.
...a more likely modality, a gradual buying exhaustion in which a series of tops, each lower than the other if not if heights, in momentum and strength indicators), lead to a major decline to retest the lows.
CORRECT.
We have already had our first top at about 2065 (and 10220 on the Dow) earlier this month. In January I expect a run to at least 2123 (possibly 2160) and probably within the first two weeks.
CORRECT WITHIN 1.2%!
Then a mild decline (no worse than 1960 or so, probable bottom at 2010) lasting most of February.
CORRECT AS TO DIRECTION AND TIMING, BUT IT WAS NOT MILD. ACTUAL BOTTOM WAS 1697.
After that , I have two additional rallies failing around early April and mid May respectively.
THE EARLY APRIL ONE CAME IN EARLY MARCH. MID-MAY WAS CORRECT.
Both of these peaking around 2250 on the Naz (outside possibility of a top at 2388).
ACTUAL PEAKS 1946 AND 1759, RESPECTIVELY. (THIS SHOWS WHY THE APRIL REVISION WAS NECESSARY.)
Strangely, then I have the major decline of the year into late June (a bottom about a week or so before July fourth, make it around June 28th plus minus two day) to about 1650 on the naz.
CORRECT AS TO DIRECTION. BOTTOM CAME ABOUT A MONTH LATER THAN FORECAST, AT 1206.
...(the first run, early in July potentially quite powerful)...
THIS CAME IN AUGUST.
...another major bottom late in September or very early in October this one...
CORRECT.
...possibly to 1450/80 on the Naz.
ACTUAL BOTTOM, 1108.
From that Nadir, I have a straight move up of about 50% on the Naz to around 2150 or so by the end of 2002.
CORRECT AS TO DIRECTION AND TIMING. ACTUAL RISE WAS ABOUT 37%, TO 1521.
I have the Dow doing "better" and "worst", the high for the year, I have at 11350, but the low I have under 7500.
CORRECT WITHIN 3.5% AND 4.5%, RESPECTIVELY.
Thanks for the 2003 prognosis. Two questions:
1. Since your analysis shows the Dow to have considerable upside potential on valuation grounds, would you consider DIA to be a good core holding, at least until the PE reaches the vicinity of 26?
2. Have you thought about posting a detailed post-mortem on your 2002 roadmap? Such a post would make very interesting reading.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=16842549
Seems to me the turnips had trouble both last December and this December. I wonder if there is something about the turnips' model that causes them to be less effective in December in general, or would that be overgeneralizing?
I haven't seen this mentioned yet, but the SPX bounced off yesterday's 870 low this morning.
I follow Zeev's posts quite closely, and did not see any run for the hills call, just some agonizing because the market is being difficult. I agree that following Zeev can be frustrating. One thing that is helpful to know is that he aims to be right 60% of the time. If he achieves that goal, he will make money, but the other 40% is going to be frustrating.
If we close at 1347 or above, would that eliminate the need to out of CCMP?
It seems like "they" are playing brinksmanship with us! <g>
Where am I? <g>
I saw those. I meant since the reentry.
Sorry if I wasn't clear.
Did you ever dump CCMP?
The Allies didn't begin reconstruction until well after World War II was over. The war in Palestine is still going on.
<entire cites full of people to be burned alive>
I guess then I also missed the news report where anyone else is doing that to US.
Nobody said it was being done to the U.S. Jbennet claimed that the U.S. is causing harm similar to the firebombing of Dresden, and it was that assertion that I was challenging.
So why then when anyone harms an American we hear "death to all"?
That is one thing that you certainly DON'T hear from the U.S., and I don't think you will, unless the Arabs succeed in convincing us that preferring civilian targets is OK.
Actually we never occupied Japan or Germany by the "occupation" definition.
If you have to redefine words to make your point, then you don't have a point to make.
Japan and Germany most certainly were occupied by the U.S. and its allies, and were in fact totally controlled by them for several years. For example, allowing the Emperor of Japan to remain in office was General Macarthur's decision, and the Japanese constitution was primarily drafted by Macarthur's staff. The existing government of Germany was kicked out of office by the occupying powers early in the occupation, and the timetable and nature of its replacement, as well every other aspect of life, was strongly controlled by the occupiers.
http://www.japan-guide.com/e/e2124.html
http://www.empereur.com/DOC/Japan_occup.html
http://www.cyberessays.com/History/98.htm
http://www.workmall.com/wfb2001/germany/germany_history_postwar_occupation_and_division.html
http://www.germany-info.org/relaunch/info/facts/facts_about/02_03.html
http://www.worldrover.com/history/germany_history.html
I have noticed that on the window for composing a message, the button to submit the post is on the left, whereas on the preview window it is on the right. This frequently leads me to post a message before I am ready. I suggest reversing the order of the buttons on the preview window.
Not all occupations are created equal. Germany and Japan came out from under the U.S. occupations peacefully, and went on to great prosperity.
"Jordan was not an occupation force."
The U.S. was, so does that make the U.S. "just like" Nazi Germany?
"Israel is just like Germany."
Where are the gas chambers? The millions of skeletons of gassed Palestinians? The plans for world conquest?
"Israeli soldiers pose for pictures beside the body of a Palestinian gunman who was killed in an exchange of fire at a checkpoint at Baka a-Sharkiya, February 21, 2002."
So let me get this straight: If you were just in a gun battle, you wouldn't be happy about coming out of it alive?
"You seem to think that we do not cause similar harm to others now."
If we have recently been deliberately causing entire cites full of people to be burned alive, I seem to have missed that news report.
I think that we try a lot harder to to minimize civilian casualties than we did in World War II. The Arabs seem to be trying to talk us out of this.
I would be the last person to claim that U.S. policy is always right, and in fact I do think that in MANY cases it has been way too short-sighted and even constituting an abandonment of our principles in many cases.
You say that you worry about escalation, and yet in the immediately preceding sentence you say "Whether one or thousands the grief is the same," which seems to say that escalation really doesn't matter much.
Sylvester, I think you are wrong to equate the Serbs with Israel. It's symptomatic of your single-minded insistence on occupation as being the only issue that matters.
I believe the thing that motivated the American people to support the NATO action in Kosovo was the Milosovich policy of ethnic cleansing. I believe the tendency of the American people to support Israel owes in large part to our suspicion that the Arabs would like to ethnically cleanse their region of Jews.
"went and bombed the occupied force in their own country, Serbia=Israel, killing many civilians in the process"
I presume you mean the occupying force, and not the occupied force? In any case, by your own words, killing civilians was "in the process" and not the purpose of the Kosovo bombings. That is an important distinction, and one that ought to be preserved, not attacked, for the good of civilians everywhere.
It is incredibly foolish to try to convince the major powers, which have unprecedented means of destruction, that preferring civilian targets is OK.
The U.S. has been an occupation force too, and so have many other countries that have won wars. Neither Israel nor Jordan have engaged in mass extermination of peoples. Neither Israel nor Jordan is attempting to conquer the world. Nazi Germany is NOT a "better comparison" to Israel.
The U.S. occupation of Japan and Germany ended because the people in the occupied countries stopped fighting us and started cooperating with us. Maybe the Palestinians ought to take a clue from this fact.
As I understand it, Dresden was primarily a cultural center, without much effect on the war effort. The main problem with bringing it up in the context of the current discussion is that it does not justify anything. Although there was no moral equivalence between sides in World War II, neither side had clean hands in their conduct of the war. The standards of behavior in war time have advanced since then, and those who draw comparisons to that time run the risk of bringing back the bad old days.
The Arabs had better hope and pray they don't succeed in convincing the world that preferring civilian targets is OK. The U.S. suffered grievous harm on 9/11/02, and Israel suffers grievous harm every week. Can you imagine the horrors that would result if the West were to use this as a justification for going back to the policies that allowed the firebombing of Dresden?
"You might as well start comparing then to Nazi Germany rather than Jordan for better comparison as Nazi Germany also occupied land and killed people belonging to that land which by the way formed terrorist groups (freedom fighters) trying to inflict damage (in any shape or form) to the Germans to leave their land (which of course meant reprisals by the Germans just like now in the occupied territories)."
Nazi Germany is a better comparison to Israel than Jordan? Next I suppose you are going to tell us the Israelis are exterminating millions of Palestinians in gas chambers.
"Compensation and aids is surely more humane and cheaper than war."
Never underestimate the Arab capacity for holding a grudge.
I hope they will prove me wrong one of these days.
"They were the body instigating the "regulation" that refugee camps should be kept as refugee camps by the UN and not allow these populations of displaced persons to be absorbed by the local populations (as the Israeli absorbed all the Jewish Arab refugees from the neighboring Arab countries)."
I didn't realize before that this was a UN decision. I'm curious as to how it is enforced. What keeps the residents from just packing up and leaving?
All those things are currently known to the stock market.
If I understand your argument, you're saying
1. Things are bad now, so when they get worse the market should take it badly.
2. Things weren't that bad in 1962, so when they got bad, there wasn't much reason to sell stocks.
This does not compute. The market responds to changes. If things are already bad when calamitous news comes out, that is an argument for less market reaction than in 1962, not more.
"In 1962 nobody had a good idea what a nuclear bomb was."
Having grown up in the fifties and sixties, I can tell you that we had a very good idea of what they were. For Pete's sake, by 1962 it had been 17 years since they had been used to obliterate Hiroshima and Nagasacki, and we had all seen pictures of the explosions and devastation, and had had the theory explained to us.
The Cuban Missile crisis was a very depressing time. I really thought it might be the end of everything. If the market only dropped about 5%, that certainly tends to support ajtj's argument.
What happened is the market can't go up when I'm long.
-Mr. Jynx
The market is like watching grass grow today.
I guess that turned out to be the "Imaginot Line" as far as the Germans were concerned.
Looks like the market's headed for 1347.
What do you see as the next support level on CCMP?
If CCMP doesn't revive by the close will you hold overnight?
I put in an after hours bid of 47.20 on CCMP on Tuesday, and was surprised this morning to see it had executed. The ask was 47.40 at the time, so I went off and did something else, thinking it wouldn't execute. Took it off a few minutes ago for 48.65 (+1.45). I was about "due" for some luck with that one, although it still "owes" me a couple of bucks.
Still looking for a swoon here?
Oh, now I get it. You meant CCMP is your ATM, not a stock with symbol "ATM." I think my head is starting to spin. <g>
When did you get out of CCMP?
I'm not sure what mlsoft meant by "modified," but the modification I would favor would be that the tax would start at some minimum income level, and the percentage would apply to the amount over that level.
I too favor a modified flat tax, but if that is done on the income tax, then the upper limit on Social Security tax should be removed as well, in order to keep the overall taxation from becoming regressive.
For some reason it didn't show up on a search.