http://www.simulationinformation.com

apologies if this link has been posted before, I just came across the site.

And if you want to see what a otc:bb in the homeland security field with no profits, 60M shares and 20 employees can do, look at IOTN.

Phil, I wasn't recommending going long on cptc. I was using it to illustrate that many stocks don't always trade near the level you might predict from a handy formula, like P/E or X times rev.

Perhaps you meant you can predict future profits and revenues from today's stock prices? Certainly not future stock prices from today's profits and revenues. Btw, what did you estimate before you looked at cptc?

hmmm, you seem to be assuming that you can predict stock prices from profits and revenues. Care to try that on another otc stock, CPTC? I'll start you out: $2.5M revenue, 113M shares outstanding, 70M float, negative earnings, $3M cash on hand, <50 people employed. Take a guess before you look at the price.

5cap

sure chowderhead

yeah, it's pretty clear how to make money if you already got a big bankroll, the real question is how to get it in the first place!

Matt, A question about the user agreement:

Let me ask this in a fictitious manner -- Let's say I had a real interest in a little company (~100k daily volume) and I am ready to put a serious investment into this company, but see no reason to bid it up as I do it, since they really haven't attracted that much attention yet and the stock is puttering along on the OTC market. I'm the devious type (I would say I'm a good businessman) so I have hired a guy I know to start highlighting to the public anything negative he can find about the company, and to in general spread uncertainty. That way, it helps the price stay low and helps my quiet accumulation.
Actually, the only place that anyone else can find actual useful information on this company at the moment is the IHUB board. So he's posting four or five times a day here, claiming (truthfully) that he has no position, but is just playing the devils advocate in bringing up a lot of (supposedly legitimate) questions.
My question to you: Are we violating your terms of agreement? Obviously I can't be since I'm not even an IHUB member. I'm above board also as far as the sec rules go, right?

Actually, I think it's a bullish sign that someone like Paul P is posting on this stock. Think about it:

* the guy claims to have no position and is only taking an objective view;

* But he's posted 250 times on the VTSI board;

* He's never posted on any other IHUB board!;

* Every single post has been negative, trying to instill uncertainty;

* He started posting in June 04, and the stock has been creeping up on accumulation ever since;

There is only one logical conclusion, Paul P is or is associated with someone who is quietly very interested in this little company. I'll bet our little Paul P is one of our larger shareholders.

$25 Million in Revenue? I agree with a previous post that the market cap/ revenue number of 1.5 is about right for fair value. However as we all know things get over valued all the time. So x3 is also realistic. However, that's only a market cap of $75 Million, i.e. $1.25 share price. Not the moon, but I'll take it.

5cap

ps - to get that number I figured about 60M shares will be out.

Could a leaseholder be shorting today? If you wanted to lock in some of the debt owed to you, you could short now and then accept option c. If they don't get 85% of the leaseholders to agree, shorting at .33 will become a brilliant move. If they do get 85% to agree and the stock price stays the same or moves up, they would get half of their money right away although forfeiting the other half. Of course that may seem to be a good deal to someone who had more or less written off ever getting anything. On the other hand, if you don't short and they don't get 85%, you may lose it all.

5cap

Actually paul P, you are missing something.

Andy said "Neither of these even comes close to what VirTra has with its 360 degree platform."

But you manage to brush that off somehow.

And in your discussions with competitors management, would you care to share with us their comments about Virtra's patents?

5cap

Kelly has indicated the forthcoming financial package will address the vast majority of the debt, not just $1M.

LENF -They have about half the number of shares out, so a run to $5 would be equivalent to $2.50 here. I'l take that..

Maybe the advertising execs will go home tonight and place orders for VTSI stock...:)

5cap

I deserve a key too. Interesting -- 8911 times 2656 street holders equals 23667616. Is the estimate of the float on the thread header a little high?

Friends and shareholders:

Attached please find this afternoon's press release announcing the sale of our Immersa-Dome™ personal virtual reality theater to the United States Army Recruiting Command.
Now the second recruiting promotion sale this year, we are pleased the Army continues to utilize our immersive virtual reality™ technology for its recruiting promotions. As you may recall, earlier this year the Army launched its Black Hawk helicopter rescue mission experience in a mobile recruiting promotion featuring our highly successful headset-based technology.

However, after the Army witnessed the robust and powerful message delivery capabilities of our new Immersa-Dome, the Recruiting Command decided to add it to its current promotion. In addition, the GSA contract was of enormous help in quickly finalizing the Army's order. The exact nature of the Immersa-Domes' "experience" has not yet been finally determined, but one of the possibilities we are working on with the Army's representatives would involve the Army's Golden Knights parachute team. We'll have more to say on the issue once the Army Immersa-Domes' content has been determined.

While we have recently garnered a large amount of attention and press surrounding our IVR™ series 360-degree training simulator product line, please allow me, however, to take this opportunity to tout the other half of our company, the advertising/promotion division headed by industry veteran, Tom Milks.

As you recall from our last release, Tom has been busy not only generating business such as this for the company, but along with our engineering staff he has developed and produced a high-definition compilation of content designed to demonstrate the Immersa-Dome's incredible multisensory delivery capabilities that now set the new standard for personal virtual reality delivery. The compilation, complete with the sensations of sight, sound, touch, and smell, was developed for use in our national promotional tour touting the Immersa-Dome's capabilities, and Tom hits the road this week in the customized motor coach.

Our strategy is simple -- let the agencies experience the Immersa-Dome for themselves. We believe this is all that is required to fully understand the powerful message delivery and branding capabilities of VirTra Systems' Immersa-Dome. After careful research and evaluation, we feel this approach is infinitely more cost-effective and powerful than any other means of advertising the Immersa-Dome -- directly marketing a direct-marketing product.

Corporately, the third-party consulting firm administering our leaseholder/noteholder conversion is now nearing completion of the due-diligence phase of the process. They should complete tomorrow the economic models forecasting the company's value over the next three years, and I am hopeful that the final proposal will be completed this week. Then, they will be contacting the leaseholders seeking to convert the debt, thus removing it as a liability from our balance sheet. As I have stated previously, we have been very careful to ensure this process affects current shareholder value positively, and I look forward to sharing more information with you as the plan is finalized and promulgated to the leaseholders.

On the shareholder level, we recently obtained a NOBO (non-objecting beneficial owner) list, which essentially tells us who are the owners of the shares held in "street name." It's something we do from time-to-time to keep abreast of shareholder movement, etc. We are very pleased with the continued strength of our expanding shareholder base. For instance, from April of 2003 (when we obtained a NOBO list) through February of 2004 (when we obtained another), our "street name" shareholder base increased 125%, from around 800 to 1800. However, when you look at our recent September NOBO list, we now have 2656 "street name" shareholders, an increase of 232% from April of 2003, and 47% since just last February. For your information, the arithmetic mean (the "average") number of shares held is 8911. We believe this growth in the shareholder base is very healthy, and that the breadth of the growing shareholder base will be stabilizing, and beneficial, for the company in the long run.

These are simply my personal comments, and should not be relied upon in your investment decisions. I strongly urge you to conduct your own due diligence with regard to any investment in VirTra Systems. I respectfully refer you to VirTra Systems’ filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.

--L. Kelly Jones, VirTra Systems CEO

hmmm, over $20?

Let's say 24 months in the future they have had enough cash flow to pay off most of the debt, have 60M shares out and are doing 200 units a year. Pretty darn rosey scenerio, you got to admit. But that's a revenue of only 200 x 100k = $20M. Put a price to sales of 6 on (pretty inflated) and you get about $2/share. And that's being extremely optimistic.

btw, by chance I doubled down on my shares monday, Tuesday's news was sweet... But to see $20 I think we would need to see many thousands of units per year, and it's hard to imagine the market. An immersa-Dome in every Starbucks?
5cap

Head can you enlighten me with some background on your statement:
"same old VNDM working here, if anybody here know the history of VNDM in our stock"

Thanks

5cap

Sir Felix.. In post 8435 you state your opinion that VTSI is worth mid .30's based on the books and the amount of shares. Three posts later you are upset with management: "Why? Because the price is not taking care of itself and they need to find out why."

Obvious question: why is the stock price a problem, given it's sitting right where you yourself think that it is worth?

Thanks, can you point out in which post(s) that analysis was presented?
5cap

SirFelix, can you point me to an earnings analysis or a post that discusses potential earnings in the next year or two, or whatever makes you say vtsi is worth maybe $3 within one year? I see the very nice collection of DD on the thread header, but I didn't see a discussion that makes reasonable assumptions about revenue, debt payoff, and earnings.
TIA --5cap

SirFelix,

1) That's wrong, a security's daily volume is most certainly correlated with the float.

2) As for the buyers, in the grand scheme of things (i.e., the universe of stocks on the nasdaq, big board, amex and OTC), VTSI is a complete unknown. Don't worry, you build it, they will come.

5cap

Zeev,

I have a friend who has a former co-worker still working on wall street who, soon after 9/11, discovered and analyzed the put volume on United and American stock. He knew there was something fishy and called the FBI, the CIA and the SEC, and then the newspapers. He was interviewed and to my friend's recollection there was at least one article about this in the Wall street journal. The 9-11 commission needs to acknowledge this happened and include a discussion of the subsequent investigation in their report, even if it has led to a dead end for good reason. (after all, maybe some high roller speculators simply got lucky. However, I am more cynical and suspect that this is a clue to be followed.)

The 9-11 commission website (www.9-11commission.gov) has an email address for contacting the commission. I for one sent a request that these matters be included in the report. It will be if enough people speak up. I hope anyone reading this takes the time to send an email.

5cap

I also have started to wonder if he (KP) is a basher. There are positive and negative things about any company, but what I originally thought was balanced analysis consistantly overlooks anything positive and focuses on the negative. And the business about buying in the teens -- if vtsi were to fall into the teens it's a complete break of the long term moving averages, and it would be a broken stock. The thing to do would be to sell and run at that point, not buy.

Big spread this morning, but they can't get anyone to sell at 24 cents.

shares!

Seems like this board is much more focused on fundamental rather than technical analysis. And IMO, it seems like many of the posts are of the glass-half-empty viewpoint as opposed concluding that the glass is half full. I think it is zeev hed who often says when FA and TA don't agree, believe the TA. The vtsi chart looks quite good to me. IMHO, when and if it becomes clear that Virtra will succeed and bring in revenue and profit, the share price will be much higher. In other words, the option of fully analyzing the company, coming to the conclusion that it's a definite thing, and buying at $0.25 or $0.30 per share is not an option at all. I've dipped my toes in, 18,000 strong and waiting for this test of the 200ma to play itself out. If not it's a small loss, but imho the risk/reward far outweighs waiting until the share price is $1 and we know they will make it.

re:ecgi.. I doubt it, way to much stock bought since $1. Although my guess is slowly upward, the chart could easily become similar to this one: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ORCH&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=c&c=

More likely the price was worked down to take advantage of a stop-loss order at .26?

We're going to need more bashers, otherwise my buys are never going to get filled. LOL

ECGI sitting on the 200 MA after a precipitous drop..looking for a test of .61 today, my guess is a low of .64 ending at .74, fwiw.
Also today shareholders vote on a m&a plan:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/031119/to126_1.html

Zeev, in reply to your message 185716. My comment to your 2004 roadmap: imho, the powers that be will have the market 'up' for at least 4 or 5 months going into the election. You can bet the gov numbers that come out will support that. You may be selling the political spinmeisters short by predicting anything but a rosy outlook come october-november. An early 2004 dip in the market (feb-march low) will support that scenario. After the election, 2005 is a disaster waiting to happen no matter who wins.
5cap

And MDPA is at the bottom of the channel too. Looks like TGA is near the channel top, going to stay away from that one for awhile.

cytr, missed the chance to edit that last message, I got the option price slightly wrong.. After looking a little more, found that according to yahoo this company has only 8 employees, and on the company's website there are bios for 5 of the management team.. who are they managing?

5cap

cytr -- chipped, that form 4 on july 31 looks like an excercise of options (350,000) to buy at $1.94, but the options were not set to expire until 2010. Excercising now, with the stock at the same price means no tax liability -- but then you expose yourself to downside in the stock. The alternative is do it later, if the stock price is higher, and pay the taxes out of your profit. Much safer, and always the prudent route, unless you are pretty darn sure the price will be higher sometime from now. Am I reading this correctly?

5cap

This mornings conference call:

http://www.earnings.com/fin/call.jsp?tckr=AVAN&eff=1700-01-01&exch=4&date=2003-05-20&...

Zeev, what do you make out of the last few days of MAXF? Trading volume had dwindled off, even below 1k per day, then all of a sudden on friday the lights came on so to speak. 10x average volume, all in small lots....
5cap

MAXF closing at the top of the candle on the second day of big volume. somethings up..

Zeev, thinking like a criminal, it seems that it would be easier for big money to get the dividend bill through if the market was heading south in a big way. Politicians from all stripes would be screaming for a economic stimulus package if we were approaching the lows again. Was this a factor in your recent head-for-the-hills call? Pardon if this has been discussed already, I've been out..

5cap

zeev, those retained earnings numbers on COCO amount to a 84% increase over 1 year. Not bad, but how about maxf, with retained earnings increase of 42% over the same period. And the p/e is 7 or 8 times lower than coco...! Do you have any idea why the market hasn't taken "notice" of maxf's apparent value?

thnx, 5cap