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Decision Point tracks actual cash flowing into and out of Rydex mutual funds, and, while cash flow normally runs parallel to price, divergences can often appear ahead of price reversals.
Back in December I wrote an article on the Rydex Precious Metals Fund showing how rising prices and negative cash flow will usually result in a price correction. Now we have a situation where cash flow into the Precious Metals Fund has been flat and now positive, while prices have been falling like a rock. This indicates that bulls are trying to hold their ground and that accumulation of precious metals shares has been taking place. The end result will probably be a rally in precious metals shares.
While a longer-term rally could ensue, my observation is that these cash flow divergences only have short-term implications. Also, it is important to remember that the Rydex Precious Metals Fund only accounts for a small slice of the total market in gold stocks, and this small picture may not be representative of the big picture.
--Carl Swenlin
- Taken from the Decision Point Website
Precious Metals Cash Flow Is Positive
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/050513_RYPMX.html
I don't see anything to be bullish about yet. A routine test of the juncture of the black trendlines to be followed by a drop to test the area where the red ones cross.
Obv and Macd still below their signal lines. Closes above the black TL's will get me very bullish.
I think there could be another spike above todays to(1480 - Jan lows). The weekly needs a bit more upper shadow to complete the pattern to the trendline. That is going by the Ryvnx chart you've already seen.
When the weekly trendline is hit I think it's back to the bottom of the channel which will mean a lower low on the Ndx. Maybe 1350 by the time we get there.
We'll see and good luck to us.
That's Hilarious...
Our trend indicators have not turned up.
Your adx 37, my 10/34ema, nor Pt's 6/50
Bear fund still good to go.
The volatility reminds me of spring 2000. We all know that was leading up to a major trend change.
I added too. Going out 120/200 short Ndx and 40% PM's.
Utilities broken... Nowhere to hide?
The rally looks dead. Lower lows ahead.
Ndx b/o looks valid except it's the only thing running. NYA, Rut, Dow, Spx doing nothing.
Are you thinking the techs get dumped later today?
I've got some on the Gold sector too but need to be careful of becoming overextended in that sector. Easy to get trapped there given the chart action. Long term, I think current prices will prove to be a screaming buy.
Yep, but right now I'm long Rut short Ndx. Move in Nasdaq not being confirmed by the broader indices.
Hey, are you back from your vacation?
Took small gain on Spx and shorted Ndx again here at 1470
Seems no doubt dollar shorts are going to get run-in. Anybody worried about Buffet and Soros? LOL
Today's breach of the uptrend is a bit of a concern. Although it was expected. $USD breakout should run to 90 or so... also expected.
My drift is it's all "as expected", which typically means the unexpected is going to happen.
Took off short today. Ndx relative strength...?
Got Spx, Rut long for a bounce. Gold and inverse interest rate for possibly a bit longer.
Btw...what type of Stockcharts account do you have and is it worth the fee?
Nice chart frenchee. Keeping a bearish bias as long as my bear fund stays in an uptrend.
We're in agreement. Fear is high and sentiment low. I guess we'll just have to see if people put their gut aside and step up to the plate.
Missing 5th wave?
The $CPC and it's 10dma has been in an uptrend since the bubble burst, do you see any reason for that trend to be reversed here?
Given the Jobs #'s one would have thought the bulls would press their rally hard. Don't tell me it's all been a short covering bear market rally? LOL. We'll see as/if we approach the 50dma and the Jan. lows at 1480 NDX.
One more I was playing around with. A good spot for a rally failure.
Bumping it's head. Note RSI 14 and MACD (below 0 line) living in the basement while Stochs and RSI 5 are overbought. I give it to the 50dma. 2 charts
Switched from Spx to Ndx short. So far a rather unimpressive bear market rally. Negative divergences developing as indicated by another poster.
Troublesome trend in household spending.
All the hard-fought gains from December 31st, 2003 through March 7th, 2005 (61 weeks worth of glorious Bull market rally) have been wiped out during the initial stages of the resumption of the Bear in just eight short weeks (from March 7th through April 29th). In fact we sit more than 250 points below that December 31st level tonight, even after a 122 point up day Friday. For all the hype and hoopla, we remain more than 1,500 points below the Dow Industrial's all time top more than five years ago. An investor would've been far better off in moneymarket deposits in an FDIC insured bank for the past five years.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-2992.htm
Feel free to do as we do. Offer your techniques and thoughts to all in a general post but there's nobody here that wants to be instructed.
If you want to gain credibility on this board you will need to post your trade entries and exits so we can judge your claims of success for ourselves.
Cordially yours,
+1.78% Ytd. Tough to make a buck this year. What hurt was coming into the year long 200% and getting underwater by 6% in 2-3 weeks. Didn't see that early Jan. selloff coming at all.
You have plenty of company...I listened to CNBC Fri. and everyone they trotted out (Fund Managers) thought the market was a screaming buy.
No telling who's right. I'll stick with the collective wisdom expressed in the price action of the charts.
That model has a low near 1100 at the end of May whereas the 97 model has a moon shot which should have already begun or is imminent right now. Can't see this thing going to near 1400 by Aug 1 with the Fed raising rates into a slowing economy. Earnings are still good but the market is discounting lower future growth.
I would favor the 35-37 model. Down to just above 1100 followed by a double top at 1163. Patterns repeat and anything that has correlated over 90% is worth keeping a sceptical eye on.
These two should start diverging this week.
Bulls better get control soon as we're entering the seasonally weak period. Money will be leaving the market for the next 6 months leaving it to the bears.
What do you base that claim on? Never is a helluva long time.
Charts, TA, Fundamental analysis?
Actually the bear funds are looking pretty good here. The Fed raising rates into a weakening economy is bad news for stocks. An Spx close above 1170 will cause me to reduce and two closes above 1190 will have me out. Another test of 1140 and I'll take some profits. You still short QQQQ and long TLT?
Healthcare and Utilities leading the way. A dead cat bounce I think.
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=sp/Page/IndicesIndexPg&r=1&l=EN&...
Re-shorted Spx.
Sell in May and go away. LOL