Looking for my next Forex trade
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UJ posted a nice hourly reversal candle at the 78.6 peak and we have a nice follow-up bear candle. I wouldn't be surprised though if the news give us a pop and drop setup...quick move back up and then a dive.
I'm actually expecting UJ to drop all the way back to the FE 100 but I'll only be in for the ride down to the FE 61.8.
I'll be ready to add once Wave 4 up is complete. Should be a nice ride back down later.
Not really larger positions on that one. I typically don't risk anything more on percentage of account used per trade. But it takes a lot of pips to rack up the gains. It offsets that by the large ADR.
Basically, if you get 100 pips on USD/DKK, it's worth about 20 pips on EU.
EA Weekly Chart
EA daily chart is turning back up now but the weekly is the primary focus. It's wrapping up a Wave 2 pullback but it may take a while longer to lock in before minor Wave 3 up begins in the larger Wave 4 up. There's still room for back and forth action at the lows.
Long term, I'm still fully expecting EA to move right back up to the FE 61.8 at 1.6158 and then higher later to 1.72838.
Should be good to go on UJ. It finally tagged the 78.6, just above the 71.6 retrace target. Might take a while though.
Added 2nd UJ short at 113.744. TP still set for 112.90 on both short trades.
Yeah...it still sucks to lose though, truth be told, no matter what philosophy you adopt...LOL!
I just try to roll with the punches and come back fighting, confident in the percentage of wins being significantly more than the percentage of losers. That's all you can do, really.
LOL! Yep, keep it light and fluffy. I'm trying to force myself to only play Wave 4 termination points now so the daily has a while before it sets up the way I want it on AUD/NZD. Definitely on radar though.
I actually heard a couple of pro traders express that philosophy during some seminars I watched. It works...LOL!
I can't be sure on that one just yet. AU finally finished Wave 3 down on the 4 hour chart and now it's shown a Wave 1 up and Wave 2 back down for the new low so far in Wave 4 back up. So if AU moves back up in a final Wave 4 pattern, AUD/NZD could still move up with it.
I suffered from that for a long time. Finally, I just had to let it all go and trust the system. Now, I take each trade with expectations that it will be a loser...that way, I'm not surprised if it is a loser and I'm pleasantly surprised with a win.
I'm just following the patterns wherever they pop up. If the setup fits my list, I just take it and don't try to second guess it.
LOL! Only reason I decided to go for it is because I closed one of my ACAD shorts for profit so I had a slot free.
UJ looks like it's setting up for a short here pretty soon but with the Fed due tomorrow, I'm passing on this one most likely.
It would need to hit the 71.6 fib retrace to set up properly here...113.68, give or take a few pips.
Hourly chart...Wave count shows this to be a Wave 4 move back up here and on the 4 hour chart, getting ready to move back down and test the neckline around 112.20 or so.
If the FE 61.8 holds as resistance, the normal retrace is 61.8 back down the previous wave that drove it up to that level. That could drop it quite a bit once it's ready.
LOL! Too quick on the trigger there speedy Gonzales. If NU gets another drop in, it could go ahead and move up to the FE 61.8 on the daily at 1.13791, give or take a few pips. Might get a few pips though on a near term basis but I'd give it more slack to run first to get some confirmation on the wave counts.
Looks like it's getting pretty close there Heavy. The weekly shows it's getting close to wrapping up a 5th wave push and the daily shows the same.
In order to call a final top though, I'd need to see a Wave 1 minor pullback with a Wave 2 push back up.
Typically though, the FE 61.8 stalls price the first time it gets back to it and that's within 80 pips or so.
I'd have to spend some time getting the count on the lower time frames, too but as a basic answer...yes, it's almost ready to short temporarily.
The Kiwi rate cut sent it north in this last 5th wave move up. So it's basically working on Wave 5 of 5.
Weekly first, then daily...
Hmmm...let me check out the charts and I'll see. I haven't looked at that pair in quite a while.
Have a good one Kirby.
One last thing I guess I should mention here as well...
Having a good trading system and a set of rules to go by is definitely a key component. But by far the most important component is the psychological factor.
Mental preparation, resilience, patience, disregarding emotion...they're by far the most important part of trading. Without those, the best trading system in the world is pretty much useless.
Food for though...enjoy your night.
Night Jav. Have a good one...
A simple set of conditions and rules is definitely the best Jav, whatever that may be. If the conditions aren't met is really the hardest part because we get tempted to take the trade anyway. Once we harden ourselves to sticking only to the conditions we defined though, we are far, far ahead of the flock in general.
Absolutely right, Kirby. When I was trying to teach about a dozen folks how to trade on their own, the requirements I had for them were as follows...
#1. Complete the entire school at http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school and be able to readily discuss the terms and ideas presented there.
#2. Spend 6 months trading only the demo system of Oanda or your preferred broker. When you can get to where you can win 80% of the time or better on a consistent basis, then you're ready to go to live trading.
Out of all the folks I trained, only 2 managed to complete the online school and only 1 of those finally left the demo to go into live trading. But, the 1 that went live failed to tell me that he hadn't really ever gotten anywhere near an 80% win rate. He managed to erase $10,000 in about 3 months during live trading. After that, he never really went back to trading again.
Pure and consistent dedication to learning how to trade is something that requires, plain and simple, a huge butt load of work. What I found out is that the folks that I ran into really wanted nothing more than a signal service to tell them everything step by step and not much more than that. The one guy that lost a ton of money really enjoyed trading but he didn't spend the face time required to learn the charting aspect from a technical analysis point of view...so he failed.
It's a tough game for sure. That's why only roughly 5% or so of the retail crowd actually manages to make money consistently doing this over a period of time. It took me years to finally get things going consistently in my favor...mainly because I was stubborn...LOL! I spent tons of time analyzing the charts but I had a few bad habits to get under control...hmmm...as a matter of fact, I'm still working on some of those bad habits to this day.
It's a never ending story for the dedicated trader.
Even simple systems leave the same wiggle room and interpretation slack, Kirby.
What you're actually looking for has been searched for by every trader out there, Forex or otherwise...the "easy to read, simple to use, right almost all of the time" indicator, moving average, chart setup, etc.
It just isn't there I'm afraid, Kirby. No matter what setup you choose to trade with, it will require tons of face time and analysis to get good at trading with it. No holy grail setups that I'm aware of...LOL!
Honestly, the less you have on the chart, the better. It forces you to focus on the price action more and pay attention to it more closely. Price action is the only real indicator of value out there when you boil it all down.
Hey Kirby. Based on what I've seen, Grab candles are really nothing more than standard red or green candles with the exception of a 3rd color that appears during sideways consolidation, like maybe blue.
It's nothing that can't be seen with the naked eye anyway. I don't see any advantage in using them. If you decide to use them, they'll still require that you spend a lot of time analyzing price action and understand how candles work in general before it would really help.
I've noticed that a lot of folks use them with an EMA34 type of tunnel as well. The same thing applies there...even with the tunnel, price can still move the opposite of what the tunnel and the candles are telling you. But, as an add-on to an existing system where you have a solid checklist in place, it won't hurt anything. It's really all a matter of preference.
I'm showing closer to 0.7250 or so on that slanted trendline to also retest the previous resistance level that we broke through.
Basically, we need a minimum retrace on this last leg up to between the 61.8 and 71.6 fib on this 4 hour chart in order to reset the overbought conditions. So absolute minimum pullback is just below 0.73. That's where I'll close my short positions out.
Definitely agreed on the move being counter trend. The weekly channel I have here on the chart shows that we've likely hit a large Wave 3 bottom and this is a Wave 4 move back up.
The total channel shows a 1-2-3 count down so far...almost all of these channels form with 5 complete waves. Wave 4 up is in progress but, based on the current 4 hour wave count, needs a pullback to that equidistant trendline I have drawn in.
Longer term, AU will move up again but is very likely to get tanked by that Wave 4 peak I have tagged.
Hey Heavy, I was looking over the AU 4 hour and daily charts and I have to admit there still is room for one more topside pop based on the daily chart.
Normally, when I see a top end TDI peak like the one we got on the daily, I end the count there...so the 5 waves is complete. But, we know that tops and bottoms are formed at Waves 2 and 4.
The 4 hour chart is working on 5 waves down right now...today likely having completed Wave 3 of that 5 waves. So there's more downside coming. But that 5 waves down, when it completes, will be equal to a big Wave 1 down on the daily chart.
So, the downside might get capped in the 0.7250 to .73 area on AU and then move up again in a daily minor Wave 2 retrace before it finally tops.
With that in mind, the earlier target you had in mind around 0.77 could still be on the table. I have a viable target listed on the daily chart. After that target is hit, the downside movement on AU should be substantial since that would be a large 5th wave movement on price in a large C wave movement.
It's still possible the top is in but I have to acknowledge the possibility here...
AU 4 Hour Chart first and then Daily Chart...
Ok gang, got some stuff to get done to day...typical honey-do list. Catch up with ya'll later.
LOL! Well, I thought I was done. ACAD is setting up for the next drop down to 0.9866 so I added a short and set TP for both orders at 0.9880.
Ok, the tally for the day shows a total of 573.5 pips but a good portion of those were USD/DKK trades. So realistically, those have a 5:1 ratio compared to EU. Let's scale that down then and say that the USD/DKK trades were worth 75.3 EU pips total.
In that case, the day's total (adjusted accordingly to scale) is 272.3 pips.
Hey, I can live with that...LOL!
Still need to boost the public account a bit more to get in back in line again.
But, here it is...the good, the bad and the ugly.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/nettechs/waves/1539708
I went ahead and closed the USD/DKK longs here on this pop back o 6.72. It'll move higher of course...as a matter of fact, it just did...LOL!
But, I won't look a gift horse in the mouth. I moved a good ways toward erasing that loss last week and finally put the public account back in the green again. That's good enough for now. No more trades today.
I just want to be as light as possible before tomorrow gets here. The Fed meeting minutes are due and the market can go totally bonkers then.
We might be in trouble then cause the market never does what I tell it to...LOL!
Sounds about right Heavy. Unless I've missed something, USD/DKK should be setting up for another upside run soon.
TP on USD/DKK longs set for 6.7335 unless we make another slight new low on this pullback. But this should be about it. EU should drop now.
I went back to the 15 minute USD/DKK chart and realized the topside pop may not actually be done yet.
That means the 5 minute chart here hasn't hit a Wave 4 peak, or, if it has, it still has to move up once more. But the 15 minute says the count should be this way right now...so I'm gonna have to adjust my topside target a bit higher I guess...maybe 6.734 or so.