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Thanks. Do you have a general road map for the market this year after your target of NDX ~1365 is reached?
ajtj, all, any argument with this argument?
http://www.sandspring.com/charts2003/cdj061703.html
Two days. Given settling time through my broker that was the shortest I could trade. The short time made it easy to backtest the relationship between gains in US markets and gains 2 days later in foreign funds. I found a good correlation as long as the gain in the US market was big enough. Too bad they won't let me play that game!
I tried buying some PRASX today but the trade was rejected - T. Rowe Price is still peeved at me for doing a ST trade last summer!
no problem, augie! :))
augie, I have plenty of TA books (and have even read them!!!) but I also think it's useful to get other opinions - one of the reasons I would subscribe to a newsletter, AND also one of the reasons I'm a member of msg boards such as this one.
Listening to other opinions does NOT imply following them blindly. If in some way I indicated that I would do something like that then I think your criticism would be justified. But as it stands I think you have overreacted a bit.
George, re: Sy Harding article... could you share your take on Sy Harding & his newsletter? Any thoughts on strengths / weaknesses? I'm think of subscribing but would like to hear other opinions. Many thanks!
Tom, I'm pretty certain that an NDR fund would beat both the indicies and B&H in a bear, but if that just means it loses less, then that's not good enough - it has to beat cash, too, for me to consider it a fund that requires minimal watching. And that's where I'm not as certain - I've seen no data that suggests that NDR would keep an account above water in a bear, and the only bit of data I've seen (at their website) shows a decine over the last couple of years. So for now I will watch this one, especially to see how it handles the declines.
Bandito, You may want to check out fund families like Rydex or Profunds that are more geared toward holding positions for that kind of time span.
Be sure to check for early exit penalties for any fund you look at. And even if there's no penalty, that doesn't mean the fund will like you if you do a ST trade. I was banned from T. Rowe Price for making a ST trade in a no-penalty fund. (They claimed I was a market timer!)
chainik, re: Don Sew, see
http://marketswing.com
His chat rooms are announced in his index update group, but the recaps are found in the chat room recaps group.
Re: "What's the 13ema updates ????"
Larry, the 13 ema is where ajtj has found that the PPT frequently intervenes to prop up the market. <GGG>
Tom, per my request NDRAX was added to stockcharts.
===================================
Thank you for your message. The Ned Davis Research Asset Allocation Fund is now available for charting on our website:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=NDRAX,uu[w,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&....
Tom, are you saying that the NDR fund would not be B&H? Thought you indicated the opposite in the first msg - just trying to understand your point. By the way, when I say B&H I don't mean entirely forget about it, just don't watch it as much.
Tom, I have Hayes' book (thanks to your earlier rec) and have ordered the prospectus. It would be nice to have another choice for a fund that is close to being B&H. (The only other one I consider in that category is HSGFX.)
Here's the only LT chart I could find from Ned Davis:
(blue line in top graph)
http://www.ndr.com/public/samples/AA500.PDF
As near as I can tell, the last two years don't look all that hot.
Thanks. Will do.
NDRAX is apparently not covered by stockcharts but Yahoo shows it:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NDRAX&d=t
Tom, thanks for the heads-up - NDRAX is interesting, I will add it to my watch list. Yet not much history for this fund... do you know if there's history out there for *any* kind of Ned Davis managed account that would give some clues as to volatility, performance in bull/bear, etc., that sort of thing?
George, do you anticipate any pullback that will create an opportunity to get into Asian funds/equities? I've been watching for EWB to pull back to its trendline but it's barely off today.
At first glance I thought there was a bear flag but a closer look at the 5 min. looks more like a rising channel. Perhaps we'll see a run to either the high from a few days ago or the top of the channel.
If I can state a guess, I think hk2 is looking at a near term drop to the bottom of the channel that's been working since ~March then a bounce up within that channel to tag 5/02 highs then a drop out of the channel.
augie what's your criteria for a stage x sell (or buy)?
max, good point. Hussman emphasizes that in the operation of his fund he does not forecast, just takes positions based on existing conditions. But there are also times I think he can't help himself and makes a few comments about direction.
OT:
Saville (one month free trial):
http://www.speculative-investor.com/new/index.html
Hussman (always free):
http://www.hussman.net/research_&_insight.htm
Augie, you're right - what I plotted wasn't the 13 DMA but the 15 DMA. Oops! But I still find that channel interesting, particularly since it pre-dates the current trend.
The top indicator is simply the % deviation from the 13 DMA.
This may seem goofy but there's a channel in that chart that dates back to before the March low. There's really something to aj's notion of the 13 DMA being significant.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[r,a]eacayyay[d126][pb97.5!c97.5!f][vc60][iut!u...
George, speaking of invaluable takes on the market... based on some comments that I believe you posted, I tried out Steve Saville's newsletter and find I really like his style (not too verbose) and content. Are there other writers that you think have a good take on the market that would be worth checking out?
It would be interesting to know what stocks Hussman will buy on the dip. His outlook tempts me to think about adding to his fund, although it sure seems late in the game.
I have to admit that I was skeptical when he started removing the hedges, but his fund is up better than 13% since then - a bit larger than the actual rise in the QQQs. I lightened up on his fund a bit too soon, but still have a core position that has seen the whole run.
One could have done well by adding to a 2x fund when Hussman undid his hedges. Even last year there was a nice rise just after he unhedged his fund.
Thnaks for the response. It sounds like your take is that Au is leading not coincident with USD. You mentioned a sharp fall in the global stock market... are you mainly referring to Europe & the Americas (I say this because your recent comments give me the impression you are positive about Asia/Japan.)
George,
re: POG & the USD...
What's your take on the directions of these two?
After today the gold case looks bullish to me (hui/pog ratio jumped, for example) yet the USD also appears to be near support (bounced off of 92 area) & ready to head up. It doesn't seem right to me for these to be both poised to move up. Any thoughts?
LG, thanks for the response. I'll look forward to your targets & road map.
Ney's books are actually available cheaply used through Amazon, some for as low as $1.48 + shipping.
His movies may also be found there, too, although the only one that might possibly relate to the market is Premature Burial <ggg>.
Road Blocks for the DOW (Bernie Schaeffer):
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/sentiment/observations.asp?ID=7838
He sees the 20 & 80 month MA as resistance for the DOW.
For Nas, more room to run - 20 mo. MA already taken out, 80 mo MA above 2000 (for comp).
LG, if memory serves, you were one of the few who saw this this rally as a possibility earlier in the year. Do you have a take on a road map for the remainder of this year?
Oh, and by the way, that Cave site is pretty good - thanks for posting it! Which brings up a second question - which of Ney's books would you recommend starting with?
augie, "not all that weird" covers a lot of ground since it considers all data, all periods yet doesn't say anything about market direction. I think the relevant question is: At these P/E levels has history shown the market more likely to go up or down?
Nice discussion of divergences, with recent market as example:
http://aegeancapital.com/general/DP_TAC.htm
augie, I don't understand drawing the line between the H and the rt S, when a peak for the rt S hasn't been defined yet. Why not draw a line from the H to the touch on (the R side of )the prior day's rise?
Traderxx, there was a nicely constructive discussion going on here until you made your remarks. There are many ways to disagree with someone without making personal attacks, and it's the general lack of personal attacks that have made Ihub so much more appealing than SI. I hope that you'll reconsider your approach and that sylvester (& others) will continue to post their thoughts.
Re: "I believe we are in the process of testing the May 2002 highs..."
ajtj, maybe I missed this but why do you think it's a retest specifically of the 5/02 highs (as opposed to, say, the highs from earlier that year?
"re fundswitch, id like to see this years data. "
Your wish has been fulfilled, their site has been updated to show this year's trades. Actually this year's trade - there was only one, in April - May:
http://www.fundswitch.com/performance.htm
Hmmm, one of their pricing schemes is quarterly. A person who paid up for the quarter at the start of the year would have had no input from them for that period!
I bailed almost entirely out of Hussman's HSGFX fund today at today's close then learned it had just set an all-time high. With the market looking so toppy I was concerned about a relapse while his fund was unhedged, plus I wanted to rebalance anyway. If this turns out to be the HSGFX high for a while then for once I will look clever; otherwise I will have left some change on the table, no big deal.