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indeed.
Is anyone surprised that no MNTA analyst notes were put out following the TEVA "announcement" (wrinkle) yesterday re: Teva tL approval? I was hopeful GS would raise their PT from $15 to $51.
Dendreon managed to determine the value of a day of life.
Life is worth ~$775 (per day) according to Dendreon.
$93k / (120 days) = $775
In all fairness, Provenge requires minimal additional costs related to supportive care/premedication, unlike many other cancer drugs.
Considering Provenge's ability to extend survival by 4.1 months, the drug costs about $23,000 per month of survival, which is similar to Taxotere (when you take into account supportive care/premedication).
Starting 1/11/2011 the Hatch-Waxman 30-month stay on final FDA approval of NVS/MNTA’s Copaxone ANDA expires; starting on that date, the FDA can issue a final approval of the ANDA as it sees fit.
How unlikely would it be for the FDA to act on the Copaxone ANDA at this time? Is there any other major hurdle (that we know of) that would need to be cleared for the ANDA to be approved?
The real issue before us is this:
At what point will the market discount TEVA's assertions about their "impending" tL approval. In other words, when will the market come to the conclusion that Marth is full of BS?
I think it will be on/around Jan OE day.
Marth makes it a practice to regularly obfuscate the truth -- and IMHO, he is a joke for relying on such a leadership style.
I fully expect that after the FDA "asks more questions" about TEVA's tL (in late January), Marth will come out and try to convince the market that they answered all questions and expect approval for tL "any day now" ... this will go on for months and months, though he knows that they won't receive approval for quite some time.
It's time for Wheeler to go on the offensive and eat TEVA's copaxone lunch.
Marth is a joke. I suspect he had been deceiving TEVA Jerusalem HQ for quite some time (telling them to expect tL approval). Now everyone knows the truth (inside and outside TEVA), and it is going to be an ugly ride for him.
I had previously posted that MNTA stock was likely to move aggressively higher after the Jan > $15 calls expire worthless. I continue to believe this. The call writers will make a hefty profit on the backs of those who bought calls after the stock soared to $26 on approval.
I am glad to see that some respected board members have started to embrace the idea that some "conspiracies" do exist in the markets.
This is the reality of the situation - we live in an imperfect world - as we are certainly imperfect creatures.
Good luck to longs.
Can someone please email Tim Anderson/Sanford Bernstein and ask them to apologize (to their clients) for their incorrect prognostication that TEVA would receive approval for tL by end of 2010. Thanks so much.
Didn't you just jump back in a few days ago? Very optimistic aren't you?
Exactly! You hit the nail on the head. My bet is the stock will "suddenly" start to rise after the JAN 2011 calls > $17.5 expire worthless. But god-forbid that we call it "manipulation" ...
Monetization in the short-term is very unlikely (in light of the recent raise). Its implicitly clear from the raise, that they did not expect any short-term infusion of cash (from a partnership or monetization scenario)
You'd be surprised. Market inefficiencies are not necessarily always rectified.
And don't forget, investing is not an academic exercise, it is all about making money, sometimes its better to go with the flow than to pander to "rationality" ...
These analysts (Goldman and Citi) are not that stupid. This is manipulation of an easy to mislead investing public. Somehow, no matter what the news for TEVA, the spin-meisters profess it as good news! (lol, in complete contrast to MNTA)
I am inclined to buy more, but am hesitant because there are no assurances that the "veil of ignorance" (no pun intended) will be lifted in the near future (next 12-24 months). Those who want to hold MNTA, need to be prepared to wait at least 3-5 years, it could be purgatory until that time. Time horizons of that sort require additional macro-economic analysis, as the general stock market landscape could undergo serious correction in the next 3-5 years.
MNTA bulls (like Cowen and Oppenheimer) have refused to go on the offensive, and I'll spare the board from going into my usual rant about Craig Wheeler being ineffective.
Happy New Year!
How many think it is pathetic that on June 17th, 2010 (a full month pre FDA mL approval) MNTA was trading at 15.25, and now a full 6 months after approval, the stock is essentially flat.
No TEVA approval before EOY (as Marth spewed in his recent CC's), but somehow MNTA's stock is still flat as Oklahoma.
How do the other 'affected' companies compare?
SNY: Sanofi's stock is ~7.5% higher than it was mL pre-approval (6 months after approval) (+6.35 billion $'s). Pretty phenomenal in light of their shrinking pipeline and challenges to their business.
TEVA: Teva is essentially flat post mL approval, but that performance is not half bad considering they don't have generic lovenox and now have a threat to Copaxone on the horizon.
NVS: 13% higher than it was pre mL approval. NVS kicking butt and taking names. These guys know how to run a company, and I pray they take MNTA out of its misery sooner rather than later. I'd take a buyout @ $25 right now.
IN summary, MNTA's overall performance is abysmal, and i really think CW / MNTA VP's have spent too much time counting their personal fortunes and not enough on time getting the MNTA message out there.
MNTA's stock TA is a mess.
Many MNTA longs were hurt bad this year, lets hope 2011 will be a year of vindication for the longs, and that the REAL story behind how the stock was manipulated for the benefit of a few shorts will come to the surface.
Many on the BV board refuse to admit to this manipulation, but it is as clear as Evian water when you see SQNM overtaking MNTA's market cap and companies like EXEL in the billion dollar market cap space.
Craig Wheeler, what happened .... why weren't you able to 'seal the deal?' Your scientists managed to do remarkable things, but through your lack of C-level skills, the stock is still trading below pre-approval levels, 6 months after approval of a sole generic. You should be ashamed.
Perhaps, FDA will approve Copaxone on 1/12/2011? That would be fantastic. If that happens, i suspect MNTA stock will soar to 30, and then head back to 12. :(
Doubtful. There are many internists, who become administrators. Just go to any local Kaiser Permanente and ask to speak to the head of their Hospitalist group. I guarantee you, they rarely (if ever) see patients, and spend far more time politicking, creating schedules and managing day-to-day interactions with finance and the internist team.
i betcha SQNM market cap will exceed MNTA within 60 days. The idea behind investing is to make money, not to wait for Mr. Market to come around. Simply put, there are a lot of forces at work here, and many of them are unsavory!
How many MNTA longs are upset that their investment (hard earned money) has sat idle (or taken a beating) during a major market rally, even after the company met some very major milestones. It's quite disconcerting...
SQNM now has a ~$600 million market cap. At this rate, it will soon overtake MNTA in terms of market capitlization.
SQNM has no meaningful product, MNTA has the only approved generic lovenox, generating 1 million bucks a day + its very strong FoB pipeline .... what sense does the market make????
I would love those of you who opine that the "conspiracy theorists" (like me) are "nuts", to respond to this message.
Yes, it is a joke.
Conspiracy ... :)
Board members hate when I throw this word around, but this is a farce (on its face!) ... I think they are after all of those January 2011 calls > 15$ that the optimists among us (including myself) gobbled up.
Follow the money, my friends...
Ridiculous.
Absolutely bizarre price target by GS, in light of the research report from their analyst... The price target and their commentary are completely out of sync.
Maybe they meant to set a $51 price target and inadvertently typed $15 on the keyboard.... see below???
"We see MNTA’s proprietary technology as the basis of approval
Momenta’s technology, exclusively in-licensed from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, enables it to sequence complex mixtures. This technology has been shown to sequence complex sugars (published in leading journals Science and Nature), and we
believe it can be extended to other complex mixtures as well. To our knowledge, no other technology can so thoroughly characterize sugars, making Momenta unique in its ability to fully characterize Lovenox (a mixture of polysaccharides, also known as sugar chains) to demonstrate sameness. We believe that competitors do not have this technology and will therefore be unable to gain approval for the next several years. Moreover, Momenta recently sued Teva for infringement of two patents covering the company’s proprietary methods of producing enoxaparin. If Teva is found to infringe these patents, we believe it is less likely that Teva will be able to demonstrate the interchangeability of its generic version with branded Lovenox"
I agree whole heartedly Zip, and the market clearly agrees with your breakdown of the GS report.
GS is capping MNTA in light of significant risk of tL. That being said, the GS analyst has hedged by providing guidance sans tL approval. Brilliant hedge ... the analyst gets to have his cake (in case of tL) and eat it too (in case no tL). :P
MNTA has not done a very good convincing important market players about the product differentiation of their characterization technology.
Raising money @ 14$ per share does not strike me as a confidence building measure, i don't blame the GS analyst for expecting tL approval imminently, in light of MNTA's actions.
This is truly heartbreaking for MNTA longs who have stuck by this company. Dead money for many months to come (perhaps years, as I see no reason why the mL overhang would suddenly disappear)
lol ... get real. MNTA is stuck in purgatory. They may soon have more cash in their checking account than the total enterprise market cap. :P
I will give them more than a week (I am still long), that doesn't excuse the performance of the stock in the past 6 months. I sincerely believe that a different CEO (even a mediocre one) would have done a better job of managing the PR around mL approval. Wheeler may be a fine strategist, but a terrible salesman. (I would take a strategist over a salesman any day of the week, but it would be great if we could have both!)
Does anyone disagree with me?
I've said this before, and i'll say it again.... I am perplexed that "companies" like Sequenom have a market cap a stones throw away from MNTA, yet those companies have no meaningful products in their pipeline.
Am i the only one who thinks it strange that MNTA is trading below its pre-approval levels for nearly 6 months after being the sole lovenox generic? Moreover, MNTA is raising cash out of the blue when they really have no overt reason to do so. (The size of the raise is also questionable -- why raise so little money???) They don't even attempt to justify or explain the raise, its all quite strange when you think about it.
All of this is happening the context of a very bullish run in the market. There is something bizarre going on, and it has nothing to do with short-term vs. long-term. The whole situation is fishy.
The story is phenomenal, the performance for shareholders has thus far been abysmal. I am not a trader and have been following MNTA since 2005, I just wonder if this stock will be in the unfortunate situation of having a great product, tons of revenue but will always be in purgatory for fear of one event or another. (e.g. today its a threat from TEVA, tomorrow it will be something else)
In short, I don't see a material event in the horizon that will make up for the lack of wall street charm. The only hope for shareholders is that a large company (like Novartis) will see value and acquire the company.
No attempt by Wheeler et. all to get the market excited about MNTA's technology. No CNBC interviews, no major news networks highlighted the technological differentiation, no attempt to exploit the interest of the public or congress on FoB. The only true advocate was the FDA, and they were attacked relentlessly. In fact, the FDA was a better advocate for MNTA, than MNTA is for itself. As for Wheeler -- being a good speaker is necessary but not sufficient to effective communication. MNTA needs some serious help with their PR.
I will make my displeasure about Wheelers inability to effectively manage the post approval environment known to MNTA management and the BoD. Sitting on our hands and demonizing a "short-term perspective" seems to be a cop-out to me.
Disclosure: I have reduced my holdings in the past few days (not significantly, but as a hedge) --- After reviewing this more closely over the weekend (after deep thought, meditation and contemplation), I don't expect this stock to go anywhere in the near future. Ultimately, I think the raising of $$$'s without any attempt to justify the raise heightens the risk of a TEVA generic Lovenox approval. (It doesn't makes sense to raise a measly 50 million bucks for FoB (at 14$ a share) when the company is generating that quarterly revenue from mL sales.
Wow. What a world we live in.... a guy runs a company nearly to the ground, and a few months later he is put in charge of "restructuring" a bankrupt company. Truly twisted. It appears to me that having a "C" in your title allows you to get away with anything ...
Harry took quite a few trips to Monte Carlo at SQNM shareholders expense, I'm sure he will do the same as he seeks to get "Molecular Insights" story out to the market.
Well you can be sure Molecular Insight stock will move higher in a few months, just make sure to sell before the bubble Harry will be working to inflate pops.
Share price has been pathetic. It is really disappointing. Management has been very quiet. While scientists have been doing a phenonemal job, only thing management knows how to do is sell their shares and have UBS dilute shareholders.
Franky speaking, this is probably one of the worst post approval (blockbuster) scenarios I have seen in the history of biotech. Suffice it to say, a ignorant derelict could do a better job than Wheeler et. all at communicating the MNTA story to the market.
Metal and wood can't be any worse than the main ingredients -- Calcium carbonate (550 mg) and Magnesium hydroxide
I thought the metal and wood particles helped with digestion and gas relief....
Pfizer: Corporate Responsibility vs. Dirty Tricks
WikiLeaks cables: Pfizer used dirty tricks to avoid clinical trial payout - Cables say drug giant hired investigators to find evidence of corruption on Nigerian attorney general to persuade him to drop legal action
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/dec/09/wikileaks-cables-pfizer-nigeria
Note Pfizers Website Statement on Their Approach to Corporate Responsibility: As a member of today’s rapidly changing global community, we are striving to adapt to the evolving needs of society and contribute to the overall health and wellness of our world. We are continually reviewing and improving our efforts to lessen our impact on the environment, nurture a workplace of diversity and inclusion, conduct responsible business practices, and uphold the highest ethical standards in everything from research and development to sales and marketing. And, we are building partnerships in communities throughout the world to strengthen health systems, increase access to our medicines and find sustainable solutions to the health challenges of today, and tomorrow.
HAH!
Congrats longs! :)
The stock price should now rise. (IMHO)
MNTA: Very surprising MNTA sought to raise such a small amount of money. I would have expected a raise of at least $125 million - $175 million.
It priced quickly because millions of shares were shorted from 26 --> 15 on anticipation of a raise. The shorts cashed out a huge chunk of their position, and made a nice killing on the backs of the plebeians.
Congrats shorts. It will be interesting to watch it move and to see the relevant SI numbers.
lol ... I was waiting for a reference to the Illuminati in your post. You are suggesting that MNTA raised money because it somehow shields them from allegations of impropriety in their relationship with the FDA? That allegation (from TEVA/Amphastar is already out there and has been smacked down by the FDA) -- it is silly. But even more silly is the the suggestion MNTA would consider such a preposterous thing to keep people distracted. Nice imagination though...
MNTA could price M118 quite aggressively (i.e. compete with generics on pricing and the orals) and still make a sizeable fortune, assuming their partnership deal is well structured. That is why I suspect this raise was triggered to help MNTA posture itself for negotiations with potential partners.
The anticoagulant market is huge (my wife (internal medicine M.D.) is not allowed to prescribe Lovenox at her hospital because it is so darn expensive). As cost continues to come down, product use will increase commensurately. As such, overall revenue for anticoagulants should remain stable (and may even increase over time).
M118 can be very profitable, even if it takes 5 years, it would still be a blockbuster, and well worth the wait.
You could be wrong.
Craig Wheeler stated on multiple occasions that he was frustrated by M118 partnering negotiations, because of relatively unfavorable terms potential partners were proposing. This raise provides MNTA a sizeable war-chest, which would allow them far more flexibility in securing favorable terms for a M118 partnership. (They may need the cash upfront, to posture in negotiations/to secure the deal)
Time will tell....