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That's definitely a speculative question...Volume has been on the downside lately so it has allowed the MMs to control the PPS with great ease...If/when there's heavy buying volume, it's much more difficult (hard to stop a running bull!). So answer your question, I have no clue...I do know that if a great demand for the stock is there (heavy volume), they can't manipulate prices very effectively, and in most cases I assume they wouldn't want to on big days.
I hope so...Yeah the futures point to a lower opening in the general market as consumer spending and manufacturing reports are likely to be lackluster...I hope the bulls ride the GDP report and ignore the consumer spending (I'm invested in a few large caps as well ).
I agree with you completely...Originally I was a little discouraged about the second postponement of the POR, but given all the procedures and claims that have to be taken into consideration and heard before the court, it makes sense to have everything arranged as strategically as possible. An asset sale would be fantastic, but I would still be pleased with a reasonable share dilution as long as the commons were to remain intact, for while there would be more shares outstanding, equity would increase (ideally), and of course the PPS would fly. With a first quarter of GDP growth since last year reported yesterday, I'm becoming more optimistic that the recession is slowly coming to an end (now if the Fed would turn off the printing press that would be fantastic, but that's another topic)...
I too think that an equity committee is essential, and given the great efforts put forth by members here as well as the obvious need for one, will surely not go unnoticed when the final decisions are being made. This is my opinion, but I think the reason they initially didn't see a need for an equity committee is the fact that we/they won't know exactly where they stand as far as equity is concerned, as Madclown pointed out, until all the claims are filed and examined, there's an approximate amount, but until the deadline passes there could also be (unlikely) some bad surprises. I don't know too much about the companies history pre-Bk, but as long as there aren't any monstrous claims filed in the last minute, and given the fact that some profit is being made is a very strong argument for leaving the commons as they are--or perhaps a bit of dilution to pay off debt.
The accounting configuration could be a bit tricky, but I'm not an accountant so I'm not too familiar with all the details at stake when varying accounting methods are used. And of course the DIP loan and outstanding bonds must be dealt with, but as long as the company stays profitable and hopefully start to increase their sales, refinancing shouldn't be too difficult (and at this point I don't think Citigroup is in any position to be unaccommodating if the need to re-evaluate the loan is needed).
Okay, a little too much coffee for me this morning so I'll cut my novel short...Let's launch past that dollar mark and stay there!
I foresee a Chemtura Friday...It's been awhile, but all things considered, the 3Q beat my expectations, and I'm expecting heavy volume and a spike in share price as a result...Aside from the earnings surprise, the statement of cash flows is also pretty impressive...GLTA.
The volume is extremely light, which means there's no heavy selling going on, yet the support seems to have disappeared!
I think 3Q results have been leaked...I'm not sure, but on Google there's a headline regarding "positive or negative" earning surprises.
Oh for sure! We'd fly to a 1.50 easily with buying volume like that...Hopefully something good will come out as a PR of some sort to stir up investors who aren't familiar with this stock. We'll get there either way I think
Yeah, not too bad...We're floating up on air almost...A few big blocks and we'll really take off this afternoon I think.
Well Exactly a week later, I hope a few of you if not internalized, at least considered some of the things I have pointed out. This is by no means a post to say "I guessed right." Such postings are meaningless...Now if I were an expert or fortune teller, I would probably have flipped and bought back in at a buck (nice round number to start the next run from ). But alas, I'm not an expert--at least not with the market...I'm a researcher before I'm a predictor, and I'm an investor before being a day trader...After all, while I won't mentioned numbers--a loss is a loss--and my portfolio has dropped considerably with regards to CEMJQ this past week...My mid to large cap investments/dividends have hedged them a bit, but I can definitely relate to the frustration or dissappointment of dropping 30-40% in a week.
I'll toss out the same phrase I used previously: "A rocky road is ahead." I stil adamantly believe this, at least in the short term. My only advice, or rather opinion on the matter is to do what your gut tells you...The longer time goes by without any major date to look forward to (as in Nov 4th before), the greater chance of seeing more slow days IMO...This, though I was metaphorically slammed for saying it, creates risk; uneasiness; nervousness; and finally panic. The other side of the coin is just as dramatic: (Here's an example:...An equity committe gets approved tomorrow and a major asset sale is presented to the court for approval.
If there's one thing that can never be measured by charts, press releases, fundamentals, or many other tools of investing, it is human behavior and the incredible psychology involved with each individual investor...The speculation, hopes, external voices, shadows on a wall, Absinthe in a glass, herd mentality towards the bathroom; shouts of fire, and get rich quick. Quite astonishing, really, and what's more astonishing is how many people invest through an emotional medium rather than an intellectual one. Fear caused pretty much every single bank to plummit last winter--some were warranted--many were exaggerated. A 300% return on BofA when they were $4 dollars a share because of the panic sellers and political/accounting confusion.
Yes, a bit of a long-winded explication, I'm a writer and have a bad habbit of rambling at times...Point being, If you're overwrought with anxiety about your investment and you're about to push the sell button before another 10% slips away...Shut off the screen or watch another stock. I followed the earnings news of the Large Caps today when it looked like CEMJQ would have another consolidating/pullback/rocky ride.
Anyway, because of the perpetual pscyological unknown that surrounds the pink stocks, or "Q" ones like this (shrouded in court docs) increases risk, even if the risk isn't warranted.
I already see responses of a typical pullback like xyz date...Or normal selling after a big run...Consolidation etc etc. All of these are likely true to some extent. But all the possible means, in this case, don't justify the ends: which for me has been increased volatility.
So, fellow shareholders, we rest at a buck...Every investor has their own goals and limits...For me, it's trigger pulling time--for buying--and by that I mean I love this retrace because once PPS settles a bit, funds and those who have ridden all the Post-Bk waves, will probably jump along with me averaging up . Perhaps tomorrow, perhaps early next week...(As I said, I'm not an avid predictor, but an investor, and yes I do believe there's a difference). GLTA, and use your mind not your trigger finger when investing in any company, especially one that lends itself to higher volatility like CEMJQ...With that, Rendeveax at $1.50 :P.
I hope so...This is my second post on this board, and honestly my research before buying was extremely limited...(I read the recent news links and basically bought shares off of this morning's news)...It's barely staying in the green, but green is green! For those who have been following this stock for a while, is this kind of news and movement normal? It seems like pretty big news from my initial read? Thanks.
All nice...though no one seems to be interested this morning yet
Not really on topic...But I like the fact that more of the court docs are related to shareholder and equity committees than "regular course of business"...very nice...
I've been in and out of meetings all day so haven't had much time to read through all the new posts...but your post, Sir, by far takes the cake! Thanks for the late-night-laugh .
Another Margarita on the rocks for me please! .
Panic...Er...Never mix panic with money, that's what'll keep you up at night. Be confident and happy with your investment, or perhaps seek one with less volatility; you should never feel panic when you buy/hold a stock...A bad mix of emotions in my opinion...I'll start to panic when the US dollar falls too low that our my vacation trips start to get compromised because of exchange rates LOL
Without proof that letters were sent by such a committee, your post amounts to nothing more than hearsay, which is why computers have fantastic delete buttons...With all do respect. Great claim, if you can back it up, otherwise, it's spam. JMO
I would go along with and very much be happy with that movement...Of course, unfortunately, the charts can't tell us the variables, so as long as no curve balls are thrown our way, I agree with you...If we get bad news, bets off...If an asset sale is announced, same thing
I hate it when my estimate or opinions happen to play out (at least partially true)...(pull back of course is the obvious answer, I personally prefer consolidation and an overall negative market sentiment for the week thus far...But as I said several days ago, and was heavily ridiculed for it...Namely that given the PPS, the risks are higher...And that I think is what causes major buyers to stop and pause, or to flip after a 25% gain...And when I mentioned that the things were rocky--in other words, that we're not out of the woods yet, I was definitely clear and feel the same way. the biggest problems overall are behind us, the biggest things that can directly affect us still remain...And with the POR dragged out 30-60 days, are are these legal fees going to be spent on developing an effective strategy to exist Chapter 11, or, is it merely so attorneys can bicker back and forth over wages for the next several weeks...Lastly, if the risk has not changed, this news headline taken from Google--albeit small and practically insignificant--should make you stop and ponder:
"Oral hearings held in NAFTA arbitration over Canadian pesticide ban Source: Investment Treaty News - Chemtura Corporation's dispute with Canada over the phase-out of the agro-chemical Lindane headed to oral hearings in September after 8 years of legal wrangling."
Again, 95-99% of things are going terrific, but it's not a done deal yet, and this was and is still my same position...And yes I watched the thousands drop from my portfolio the past few sessions like many of you, but we now have a long time for things to be dragged out...We sat in the .20s because not a DA^^ thing really got done for weeks...And our Equity Committee, which I think will be successful, has not gone through either, so treading water fits perfectly given all that...
Personally, however, I see it as a nice base and consolidation, where we shall launch to 1.50 and higher when one of many strong news announcements are made IMO. Please feel free to analyze or jump all over me like before, I can take it and love he debates, just remember we are on the same team (holding and long with my position)...and feel free to write messages but I can't respond in private so I will try my best to do so in public where I see fit.
And all you chartists...And I'm a huge one myself--though I don't have the animation down yet, things are starting to shape up very nicely for the next move. My advice, follow the docs, read the DD on here, but above all, be patient.
See ya all in Cabo.
-Kid
Great Day for consolidation...A little higher volume would have been nice...but as this Stock has been very predictable in terms of chart movements, behavior and trends...I hope for a few more days like today than a nice leap up to perhaps 1.50...Not the exact resistant point, but like a dollar, 1.50 seems to have a bit of a psychological resistance to it as well-though not as profound...Hang back guys, grab more if needed, let the shares churn for a bit and the court docs fly...Next leg up will be on its way. I'm not a flipper when it come to this stock, but I have to say, If I were, I timed this pullback and consolidation perfectly :P...No need to flip...I'll just add! Cheers.
Hmm, good point...Certainly presented the court and the company with an abundance of new things to take into consideration...In our favor.
Oh man, don't remind me LOL...I was starting to think that the .20s would never disappear at the time. Many jumped ship during that time too, likely kicking themselves now :P.
Yes, you said it perfectly...The operative word that repeats in your response is "IF." I personally look to when, as the "If" factor disappeared for me months ago...And if I saw no long-term upside, I wouldn't be holding this stock anymore, it's only trading--er--common sense. Your point is valid about many companies trading at multiple times their book value, however, keep in mind that most companies (many large caps especially), don't have a Q after their symbol. When Chemtura emerges from Chapter 11, I see no reason why it won't trade at multiple times it's value as well, it's just a matter of time and patience...We may see another rocky week. I wish I could predict perfectly, who doesn't? (I'd be uber rich and out of the market years ago if that was the case)...
Another 10% drop would be just fine, as chart history has shown, run ups have far exceeded their prior pull-backs. And yes, if an asset sale is announced, of course the stock is going to fly, and I have my first class ticket reserved for that flight! Have a good weekend .
I only see one poster bragging about getting out, which in and of itself is a superfluous announcement. I pointed out a few things that caught my eye, but my shares haven't moved, and with the exception of extremely bad news, I will stay long with this company, for I think things are lining up very nicely...Just because certain things that caught my attention aren't perfect (no company is), doesn't mean that I'm jumping ship...Merely opening it up for discussion. And yes, I may be completely off, so IF we keep running high, I'll be dancing at my own foolish insight. Cheers and good night/morning to everyone.
I think every broker is different...I use Etrade and pay the same fee whether I buy 1 share or 1 million shares.
Yes I do believe in following the big money, but not just because it's "big money."
It's a smart but double-edged philosophy...You should always follow your own money (metaphorically speaking). Some of the smartest investors and funds poured billions into Madoff's scheme...and my personal investment hero--Warren Buffet--made a huge mistake when he purchased a large amount of Shell stock last year when Gas prices were at record highs...I kept his letter I received that he sent to shareholders apologizing for his bad timing...In other words, big money can lose just as easily as it can win...Think of all the institutions that owned Washington Mutual Shares or another large company that has gone under. Following the money is never a guarantee for success...Not to contradict myself, but I do adamantly agree that it is a good indication, and I take this from any increased volume--institutional or otherwise.
*Side note- I apologize to a couple personal messages I have received...I don't have a premium membership and so can't respond in private.
I seem to have opened a bit of a pandora's box with my posts...When I say that the risk has increased (for me), I'm speaking in terms of risk/reward, which is completely relative...I'm holding with no intention of selling in the short term, but I'm averaged in at roughly a dime and so have done quite well, as have many others...I am simply implying that I don't think it's likely--even though the chart as you say is beautiful--to reasonably expect the same returns for someone buying the stock today.
Given the return on investment over the summer and the highly undervalued share price, the risk, in my view was pretty much non-existent. I'm suggesting that new investors should do careful DD before jumping in, for I'm sure you'd agree that the PPS (with current shares as they are), is not going to launch to 15bucks in 6 months, offering the same kind of returns that some of the earlier investors like myself have gotten. Again this is relative...Do I think we will hit two bucks by the time the POR is announced?...Yes I do...Will we see another double or triple in the share price? Honestly, I think it will be some time before this happens...Ultimately it will depend on POR, a potential asset sale, etc.
Point being, if you're buying today expecting huge returns as the post-Bk charts show, you may be disappointed. So while the risks can be argued as the same, the reward, or return on investment, is going to be more on par with stocks on the exchange, especially post-bk...Many people buy "penny ranged stocks" in hopes of a quick return...While this is in no way your average OTC stock, the psychological mindset is likely the same, which is why many posters are disgruntled when the volume is low or when the PPS isn't climbing double-digits every day...Of course this is just my take, and all things considered, I think we are sitting just below where we should be given the performance numbers that we have...A significant move in PPS will come from the courts at this point IMO.
I agree with you and have been long with this stock since I bought in...When things get interesting, I find it noteworthy to point out the little details...And you're right about the MOR historically having little effect on the PPS, the quarterly report, on the other hand, has (at it does with most companies) a noticeable influence. How the market will react is anyone's guess...Even with a 3Q loss, it will be less than 2Q, so in that respect it's an improvement and good news...We'll have to see...Either way, we've both done quite well so I have no complaints .
Yes, There's plenty of room for interpretation with the information that we have available...I thought it noteworthy to present some of the potential downsides to the stock as well as all the upsides we have seen, so if there is a major pull back...Those who haven't been following the stock since March, will have a possible reason as to why...I'm long, so the day to day fluctuations don't effect me as they may others...Of course legal fees and reorginizing fees as well as bond fees are going to weigh heavily on the bottom line, but these are separate from sales, operations and operating expenses, which were lower than my personal estimates. If I had to put it eloquently into one sentence: The risk factor, based on my personal opinion and analysis, has increased.
Of course I hope I'm wrong...
Best.
Breaking a bit of precedent here, as I post my first weary post...No I haven't dumped my shares--in Madclown fashion--and am not, at least at the moment planning on doing so...But, in my opinion it's going to be a very rocky ride the next few weeks, and after the recent run up, I anticipate a pullback based on court filings today...Namely the MOR, and the request to postpone the deadline for the plan of reorganization:
"On October 14, 2009 the debtors filed a second motion to extend the exclusive filing period to February 11, 2010, which is scheduled to be heard on October 27, 2009. There can be no assurance that a plan of reorganization will be filed by the debtors or confirmed by the court, or that any such plan will be consummated." (Page 9, Sept. MOR)
Now this request can be interpreted in varying ways...If there are significant plans (asset sales for instance), requesting more time has a potentially positive outcome...If the request for time is merely to hammer out legal squabbles and fees amongst attorneys, then it is likely that legal/reorganization fees will continue to rise...This is just my speculations, but I don't necessarily see a second postponing of their plan as a step of confidence.
Further, the 12 million (unaudited) net loss for the month is not too encouraging based on my expectations, especially given the three months of million dollar profits, two of which account for this quarter...Adding September into the July and Aug combined gains of 2 million, we end up with an approximate 3Q loss of 10Million. -which will vary as the 3Q will be much more in-depth than the MOR's, but a loss seems eminent, albeit it is a significant improvement over 2Q losses...
One last note on the weary side...Fair book value is now roughly $1.35 a share, so with all things considered, the PPS, at least for now, is trading at it's value, or to be exact slightly above.
So a rocky road is ahead, in my opinion...But many positive notes are worth mentioning as well...The continuing letters and pettitions for an EC are fantastic, as well as a few other minor court decisions in Chemtura's favor. For now we wait, but not without confidence...Things are improving, though not at the pace many would like them to be...
GLTA, and another nice green day!
Cheers to that
Me too
Yup, And keep in mind it's not even lunch time yet, plenty of time for afternoon volume to jump in.
Yup, And keep in mind it's not even lunch time yet, plenty of time for afternoon volume to jump in.
Yeah I just made that connection...Well, we should have a pretty good idea of where things stand when September's MOR is released...They have been released within a consistent time frame. Given the fact that NOV. 4th is the big hearing, I would assume Rogerson would have the results well prepared for the court, in addition to the POR.
Well, that was an isolated occasion...Before that it reached 1.14 before retracing back down.
Will do...Was out of town over the weekend when emails were being written and things were being calculated.
Yes, 350k is what my chart shows as well.
Has it been noted somewhere that 3Q will be released in November fro some reason? Generally, as is with corporations throughout the market, October is 3Q earnings reports...Jan-Mar 1Q, April-June 2Q, July-September 3Q- reported in October in most cases...Am I missing something?
While pure speculation, I think a surge above a dollar would be a conservative estimate if 3Q is profitable...I think there will improvements over last quarter in regards to sales due to announced product expansion (though not sure how much that will effect September) as well favorable currency variations...Let's hope they modify in the report according to the ruling regarding the excessive charges requested by the firm representing Chemtura...That could take a slice away from the bottom line, but it's guesswork for now...Then the real fun/anxiety/rush begins as the POR approaches and decisions are made regarding the Equity Committee proposals. It's been a very fun and rewarding journey thus far, my 85k shares are waiting for takeoff...(feel free to add my share count in your letter if it's not too late)...thanks.
L11 is pretty bullish, though if they want in, it looks like it's going to cost them...As it should...Not much resistance in this range, a tincture of volume is all that is seemingly needed...Any major planned court events today? Always surprises, but I can't recall if the court schedule light or full?