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I disagree,these are exactly the ones you want to have weapons.You have a PM.
Can we get back to computer talk?My Terminator is acting up,it will refuse to boot up sometimes,POST claims it failed memory test,and my multi-monitor display is no longer working.I am clueless about what to do,or what is wrong.I've tried a system restore,that didn't work.There is no virus present,the cursor just won't move beyond the boundaries of my central monitor.This happened out of the blue,I've been away from home,and the computer hadn't been on for a couple weeks,the DVD is also non-responsive.
More from the Left-: The Right Wing Domination Of Talk Radio And How To End It
The Center for American Progress and Free Press today released the first-of-its-kind statistical analysis of the political make-up of talk radio in the United States. It confirms that talk radio, one of the most widely used media formats in America, is dominated almost exclusively by conservatives.
The new report — entitled “The Structural Imbalance of Political Talk Radio” — raises serious questions about whether the companies licensed to broadcast over the public radio airwaves are serving the listening needs of all Americans.
While progressive talk is making inroads on commercial stations, right-wing talk reigns supreme on America’s airwaves. Some key findings:
– In the spring of 2007, of the 257 news/talk stations owned by the top five commercial station owners, 91 percent of the total weekday talk radio programming was conservative, and only 9 percent was progressive.
– Each weekday, 2,570 hours and 15 minutes of conservative talk are broadcast on these stations compared to 254 hours of progressive talk — 10 times as much conservative talk as progressive talk.
– 76 percent of the news/talk programming in the top 10 radio markets is conservative, while 24 percent is progressive.
Two common myths are frequently offered to explain the imbalance of talk radio: 1) the 1987 repeal of the Fairness Doctrine (which required broadcasters to devote airtime to contrasting views), and 2) simple consumer demand. Each of these fails to adequately explain the root cause of the problem. The report explains:
Our conclusion is that the gap between conservative and progressive talk radio is the result of multiple structural problems in the U.S. regulatory system, particularly the complete breakdown of the public trustee concept of broadcast, the elimination of clear public interest requirements for broadcasting, and the relaxation of ownership rules including the requirement of local participation in management. […]
Ultimately, these results suggest that increasing ownership diversity, both in terms of the race/ethnicity and gender of owners, as well as the number of independent local owners, will lead to more diverse programming, more choices for listeners, and more owners who are responsive to their local communities and serve the public interest.
Along with other ideas, the report recommends that national radio ownership not be allowed to exceed 5 percent of the total number of AM and FM broadcast stations, and local ownership should not exceed more than 10 percent of the total commercial radio stations in a given market.
Read the full report here.
More nonsense from the NPR types,btw,these are the ones who can't allow free discussion unless they agree,typical of all college campi,hypocrits one and all-http://thinkprogress.org/2007/06/20/radio-report
7/4/07,8:00 a.m.
LOL,I remember that Monty Python skit so well.
The Faithful Heretic
A Wisconsin Icon Pursues Tough Questions
Some people are lucky enough to enjoy their work, some are lucky enough to love it, and then there’s Reid Bryson. At age 86, he’s still hard at it every day, delving into the science some say he invented.
Reid A. Bryson holds the 30th PhD in Meteorology granted in the history of American education. Emeritus Professor and founding chairman of the University of Wisconsin Department of Meteorology—now the Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences—in the 1970s he became the first director of what’s now the UW’s Gaylord Nelson Institute of Environmental Studies. He’s a member of the United Nations Global 500 Roll of Honor—created, the U.N. says, to recognize “outstanding achievements in the protection and improvement of the environment.” He has authored five books and more than 230 other publications and was identified by the British Institute of Geographers as the most frequently cited climatologist in the world.
Long ago in the Army Air Corps, Bryson and a colleague prepared the aviation weather forecast that predicted discovery of the jet stream by a group of B-29s flying to and from Tokyo. Their warning to expect westerly winds at 168 knots earned Bryson and his friend a chewing out from a general—and the general’s apology the next day when he learned they were right. Bryson flew into a couple of typhoons in 1944, three years before the Weather Service officially did such things, and he prepared the forecast for the homeward flight of the Enola Gay. Back in Wisconsin, he built a program at the UW that’s trained some of the nation’s leading climatologists.
How Little We Know
Bryson is a believer in climate change, in that he’s as quick as anyone to acknowledge that Earth’s climate has done nothing but change throughout the planet’s existence. In fact, he took that knowledge a big step further, earlier than probably anyone else. Almost 40 years ago, Bryson stood before the American Association for the Advancement of Science and presented a paper saying human activity could alter climate.
“I was laughed off the platform for saying that,” he told Wisconsin Energy Cooperative News.
In the 1960s, Bryson’s idea was widely considered a radical proposition. But nowadays things have turned almost in the opposite direction: Hardly a day passes without some authority figure claiming that whatever the climate happens to be doing, human activity must be part of the explanation. And once again, Bryson is challenging the conventional wisdom.
“Climate’s always been changing and it’s been changing rapidly at various times, and so something was making it change in the past,” he told us in an interview this past winter. “Before there were enough people to make any difference at all, two million years ago, nobody was changing the climate, yet the climate was changing, okay?”
“All this argument is the temperature going up or not, it’s absurd,” Bryson continues. “Of course it’s going up. It has gone up since the early 1800s, before the Industrial Revolution, because we’re coming out of the Little Ice Age, not because we’re putting more carbon dioxide into the air.”
Little Ice Age? That’s what chased the Vikings out of Greenland after they’d farmed there for a few hundred years during the Mediaeval Warm Period, an earlier run of a few centuries when the planet was very likely warmer than it is now, without any help from industrial activity in making it that way. What’s called “proxy evidence”—assorted clues extrapolated from marine sediment cores, pollen specimens, and tree-ring data—helps reconstruct the climate in those times before instrumental temperature records existed.
We ask about that evidence, but Bryson says it’s second-tier stuff. “Don’t talk about proxies,” he says. “We have written evidence, eyeball evidence. When Eric the Red went to Greenland, how did he get there? It’s all written down.”
Bryson describes the navigational instructions provided for Norse mariners making their way from Europe to their settlements in Greenland. The place was named for a reason: The Norse farmed there from the 10th century to the 13th, a somewhat longer period than the United States has existed. But around 1200 the mariners’ instructions changed in a big way. Ice became a major navigational reference. Today, old Viking farmsteads are covered by glaciers.
Bryson mentions the retreat of Alpine glaciers, common grist for current headlines. “What do they find when the ice sheets retreat, in the Alps?”
We recall the two-year-old report saying a mature forest and agricultural water-management structures had been discovered emerging from the ice, seeing sunlight for the first time in thousands of years. Bryson interrupts excitedly.
“A silver mine! The guys had stacked up their tools because they were going to be back the next spring to mine more silver, only the snow never went,” he says. “There used to be less ice than now. It’s just getting back to normal.”
What Leads, What Follows?
What is normal? Maybe continuous change is the only thing that qualifies. There’s been warming over the past 150 years and even though it’s less than one degree, Celsius, something had to cause it. The usual suspect is the “greenhouse effect,” various atmospheric gases trapping solar energy, preventing it being reflected back into space.
We ask Bryson what could be making the key difference:
Q: Could you rank the things that have the most significant impact and where would you put carbon dioxide on the list?
A: Well let me give you one fact first. In the first 30 feet of the atmosphere, on the average, outward radiation from the Earth, which is what CO2 is supposed to affect, how much [of the reflected energy] is absorbed by water vapor? In the first 30 feet, 80 percent, okay?
Q: Eighty percent of the heat radiated back from the surface is absorbed in the first 30 feet by water vapor…
A: And how much is absorbed by carbon dioxide? Eight hundredths of one percent. One one-thousandth as important as water vapor. You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling carbon dioxide.
This begs questions about the widely publicized mathematical models researchers run through supercomputers to generate climate scenarios 50 or 100 years in the future. Bryson says the data fed into the computers overemphasizes carbon dioxide and accounts poorly for the effects of clouds—water vapor. Asked to evaluate the models’ long-range predictive ability, he answers with another question: “Do you believe a five-day forecast?”
Bryson says he looks in the opposite direction, at past climate conditions, for clues to future climate behavior. Trying that approach in the weeks following our interview, Wisconsin Energy Cooperative News soon found six separate papers about Antarctic ice core studies, published in peer-reviewed scientific journals between 1999 and 2006. The ice core data allowed researchers to examine multiple climate changes reaching back over the past 650,000 years. All six studies found atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations tracking closely with temperatures, but with CO2 lagging behind changes in temperature, rather than leading them. The time lag between temperatures moving up—or down—and carbon dioxide following ranged from a few hundred to a few thousand years.
Renaissance Man, Marathon Man
When others were laughing at the concept, Reid Bryson was laying the ground floor for scientific investigation of human impacts on climate. We asked UW Professor Ed Hopkins, the assistant state climatologist, about the significance of Bryson’s work in advancing the science he’s now practiced for six decades.
“His contributions are manifold,” Hopkins said. “He wrote Climates of Hunger back in the 1970s looking at how climate changes over the last several thousand years have affected human activity and human cultures.”
This, he suggests, is traceable to Bryson’s high-school interest in archaeology, followed by college degrees in geology, then meteorology, and studies in oceanography, limnology, and other disciplines. “He’s looked at the interconnections of all these things and their impact on human societies,” Hopkins says. “He’s one of those people I would say is a Renaissance person.”
The Renaissance, of course, produced its share of heretics, and 21 years after he supposedly retired, one could ponder whether Bryson’s work today is a tale of continuing heresy, or of conventional wisdom being outpaced by an octogenarian.
Without addressing—or being asked—that question, UW Green Bay Emeritus Professor Joseph Moran agrees that Bryson qualifies as “the father of the science of modern climatology.”
“In his lifetime, in his career, he has shaped the future as well as the present state of climatology,” Moran says, adding, “We’re going to see his legacy with us for many generations to come.”
Holding bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Boston College, Moran became a doctoral candidate under Bryson in the late 1960s and early ’70s. “I came to Wisconsin because he was there,” Moran told us.
With Hopkins, Moran co-authored Wisconsin’s Weather and Climate, a book aimed at teachers, students, outdoor enthusiasts, and workers with a need to understand what the weather does and why. Bryson wrote a preface for the book but Hopkins told us the editors “couldn’t fathom” certain comments, thinking he was being too flippant with the remark that “Wisconsin is not for wimps when it comes to weather.”
Clearly what those editors couldn’t fathom was that Bryson simply enjoys mulling over the reasons weather and climate behave as they do and what might make them—and consequently us—behave differently. This was immediately obvious when we asked him why, at his age, he keeps showing up for work at a job he’s no longer paid to do.
“It’s fun!” he said. Ed Hopkins and Joe Moran would undoubtedly agree.
“I think that’s one of the reasons for his longevity,” Moran says. “He’s so interested and inquisitive. I regard him as a pot-stirrer. Sometimes people don’t react well when you challenge their long-held ideas, but that’s how real science takes place.”—Dave Hoopman
Total idiots.
You do know the goal of Mexico is to take back California,and most of the Southwest?What they feel they lost in an unjust war,and is still rightfully their's.That movement in Mexico is extremely strong,and they are well on the way to accomplishing their goal,with our complicity.
Hey,democracy is the worst form of government,thank God we live under a Constitutional Republic.A pure Democracy is nothing but mob rule,aka majority rule.Btw,the most efficient form of government is a benevolent dictatorship.
Btw,I said school child as they are the ones being educated.We adults know the facts,and should act appropiately.
I love that vid,it should be mandatory viewing for every school child.
PPHM is no gem,but it does channel,any buy under 1.00 or near it is always rewarded,so far,lol.It doesn't change what CYRX is,a traders stock,same as PPHM.I wouldn't put any long-term money in either of them.Neither is an investment,only a trade,imo.
No,there is no such thing,unless you think APPL the past 5 years,I remember the 17.00 sp,oh well.I meant no offense rover,just the timing you suggested appeared bad to me,the big run is no time to buy into on the peak.
All I said was now was not the time to buy,anyone who bought when you suggested would be down hugely,which is all I said,you don't buy at the top of a run,which is exactly what you were prescribing.
CYRX now 1.88,CFPC now 1.50,nuff said.
re CFPC,not much room to go,imo,not worth my $$,nor anyone else on this board.Again,another good buy under 1.00,but not now.jmo,glty.
That's why we have these boards,for opinions,the stocks speak for themselves.
My only boo-boo on the pension point is that all state pension plans seem to be funded,and maybe federal also,but not private pensions,so maybe we should all work for the Government,if we want a guaranteed pension.
Pensions will be,and are the next big issue,especially how Government has allowed these to go unfunded,yet government is expected to back them up(that is us,lol).Baby-boomers(us),are the largest growing segment to ever hit SSI,or private pension funds,yet we have allowed all private and public companies to not only not protect pension funds,but to borrow against them,and pension money is only on paper,not protected(as is your SSI),there is no "lockbox",there is only a promise to pay,with no physical backing.It is the next big lie,Enron was just the beginning,GM,Ford,IBM will be the killers.Mark my words,there is no pension money.
Another example of why this market is so phony,even though you love trading the IBM channel-
Posted by: Frank Pembleton
In reply to: None Date:10/25/2002 9:40:41 PM
Post #of 792
PENSION PLAN POISON
By Eric J. Fry
Wouldn't it be nice if you were able to spend the amount of money you HOPE to make in the stock market, rather than the amount you actually make? Well, almost all of America's largest corporations get to do something very similar. Every year, they include in their 'earnings' the investment gains they HOPE their defined-benefit pension plans will earn.
Sometimes, the pension plans perform about as well as expected, especially over a three- to five-year time- frame. But - and here's where it gets interesting - sometimes they don't even come close to making their anticipated return. Instead, like a first date that features far more bad jokes than romantic glances, reality falls well short of expectations.
For example, during the fiscal year ending October 31, 2001, Deere & Co., the tractor company, expected its pension plan and post-retirement benefit plans to produce investment gains of $657 million. In actuality, however, these plans had losses of $1,419 billion. That's a difference of more than $2 billion! These latest losses bring Deere's underfunded pension liability to more than $3 billion. "At some point," observes Apogee Research, "Deere will have to deposit actual cash into its underfunded pension plan to make up the $3 billion shortfall. And yes, that's real money to Deere...$3 billion represents more than five years' worth of average net income!"
Investors should be aware that Deere is not the exception. "Last week investors were rudely awakened to the troubles that underfunded pension plans could pose for corporate America," writes Jacqueline Doherty of Barron's. "With the stock market down and pension-fund assets shrinking, companies ranging from Continental Airlines to Avon Products to the New York Times indicated they had made, or planned to make, fresh contributions to bolster the value of their pension plans...General Motors reported that assets in its U.S. pension plan had dropped by 10% this year, which means the company's after-tax pension expense could rise by about $1 billion, or $1.80 a share, in 2003." Standard & Poor's promptly downgraded GM's credit rating. "The primary reason for the downgrade is that poor pension investment portfolio returns have contributed to a huge increase in GM's already-large unfunded pension liability," an S&P analyst explained.
During the great bull market of the 1990s, outsized investment returns created a kind of "cookie jar" full of excess earnings. One way or another, America's creative CFOs made sure these excesses found their way onto the income statement, helping to flatter the reported earnings results. But the devastating bear market of the last few years has brought this practice to a screeching halt. Most of the corporate pension plans that once enjoyed a plump surplus now find themselves woefully underfunded. Despite this uncomfortable state of affairs, most companies are still in denial. They continue to project robust investment returns for their pension plans.
"Recently," Contrary Investor observes, "plan sponsor/investment industry magazine 'Pension and Investments' studied the assumed rates of forward investment return for the 100 largest corporate-defined benefit plans in this country...Although the study only provides data through 2001, here are some of the highlights worth noting: the average expected rate of return among the 100 count sample was 9.3% [and] 88% of the plans had a return assumption of 9% or greater...Yet, 95 of the 100 companies that made up the group experienced negative 2001 plan returns."
Eventually, however, companies will have no choice but to face the music and kick cash into their pension plans. That painful moment of truth has already arrived for a few companies...and that moment is close to arriving for a few hundred more.
Barron's Doherty explains: "According to David Zion, an accounting analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston, 360 companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 index have defined pension-benefit plans. Of these, 240 had underfunded plans at the end of 2001, the highest level in ten years. With stocks and interest rates both in retreat - a poisonous combination that spells lower returns on fund assets and increased pension liabilities - Zion believes the number of companies with underfunded plans could balloon to 325 in 2003."
For many American corporations, the painful consequences will be twofold: the excess earnings produced by large investment gains in their pension plans will be gone, so CFOs will no longer be able to take a portion of their stock market bounty and book it as reported profit. As pension plan surpluses turn into deficits, many companies will have to contribute cold, hard cash to make up the shortfalls.
Neither of these facts will enhance the investment appeal of a stock like Deere. [It's no accident that Deere is one of Apogee Research's most recent short-sale recommendations.]
"If a pension plan remains underfunded," Doherty explains, "a company over time might need to direct its cash flow to pay its pension obligations before investing in its business, paying down debt, repurchasing shares or making other strategic moves that would benefit investors. The upshot: companies could end up working for their retirees instead of their shareholders."
"Zion estimates that S&P 500 companies with defined benefit plans will have to make $29 billion in cash contributions to their underfunded plans in 2003, up from $15 billion in 2001."
Longer term, the accumulated pension liabilities are even more daunting. Trevor Harris, head of Morgan Stanley's valuation and accounting research group, tells Doherty: "I think it's a huge issue unless the markets rebound. We have over $300 billion of pension-fund deficits in 2002 for S&P 500 companies. That's $300 billion of cash these companies have to come up with over the next few years, and $300 billion that comes out of corporate cash flow."
Incredibly, through the magic of GAAP accounting, these towering liabilities do not necessarily penalize reported profits...at least not immediately. That's because, as we noted at the outset, companies may, within certain broad limits, include in their EXPECTED pension plan returns on their income statements instead of their actual returns. Last year, the difference between these two numbers was substantial. An actuarial Grand Canyon separated actual returns from expected returns.
"Although pension-fund assets lost $90 billion in 2001, an accounting sleight-of-hand allowed companies to show that income of $104 billion had been generated, Zion says. If the smoothing mechanisms were eliminated, aggregate earnings for the S&P 500 would have dropped by 69% last year," Doherty observes.
Investors would do well to remember that accounting practices can obscure more than they reveal. "Pension plan accounting is hiding a lot of landmines," says Apogee's Tracy.
Watch your step.
Eric Fry,
for The Daily Reckoning
Posted by: Mr. Ed
In reply to: Frank Pembleton who wrote msg# 647 Date:10/25/2002 10:44:09 PM
Post #of 792
Michael,that(pensions),stock options,cost-cutting(lay-offs,plant closings),debt,stock re-purchases,are all part of the house of cards that will inevitably collapse the market.How long will we allow dishonesty in accounting/earnings?IBM's earnings which helped give the market a jump start were a lie,as has been pointed out here by others,yet the talking-heads on CNBC,Bloomberg,etc. keep reinforcing the lie,to what gain?That was rhetorical,I suspect we all know the answer anyway.Here's a link supporting JimWillieCB on gold(notice the paragraph on bad cc debt and refi's,hehe)- http://www.goldensextant.com/commentaryBA2.html
Posted by: JimWillieCB
In reply to: Mr. Ed who wrote msg# 648 Date: 10/26/2002 1:26:57 PM
Post #
I recall a wise saying about layoffs and cost cutting
cannot get the exact words
but basically, it said that the LAST such layoff or big cost cutting measure is bullish for that firm's stock
if one more link in the chain, very bearish
goes back to the INFLECTION point
until the descent changes its rate, still bad for the stock
Puplava made a great point on Thursday market wrap
shaking off bad news for companies and the economy is not a sign of an end to the bear
(using bull thinking in a bear envmt)
instead, it leads to a fall off a cliff
Panic Phase coming soon to a neighborhood near you
/ jim
Me being a "wretched student of economic history"-
repeated several in recent days, just a bit quiet today
here are a few from this morning and early afternoon
a quiet couple days as the longs end their sillyness
/ jim
--------------
IBM CEO should watch consumer spending, car spending,
layoffs, and housing finance
these are the keys for the drop into recession
the worst consumer confidence decline in my 20 years of memory was registered yesterday
Christmas sales season will be more dismal than the weather
CEO's have become the newest whore cheerleaders now
they have much to lose with vacant stock options
how is the IBM pension funding issue these days?
--------------
next Fed rate cut will not be next week
nor in December at next scheduled FOMC
it will be during a panic tipped by bank sector implosion
the Fed cut will help to prevent 1000's of testicles from undesired descent to the pavement !!!
stocks will sell off later next week, and following weeks
much will change after the Nov 5th elections
I expect the dollar to begin slipping, then breaking below 105 again
then bonds will see their rally down to TENS 3.6% yield halted, and reverse
the biggest stock/bond curveballs are coming soon
falling stocks, rising rates, worsening recession
a signature of the Perfect Storm
the control lever: USDollar
I eagerly await Puplava's next installment on the Storm Series
he promised its focus to be on Derivative Events
the best signal I have learned for such events is a widening yield curve,
defined as the diff between higher corp bond yields and lower trez bond TENS or THIRTYS
is anyone aware that the yield curve is now wider than in autumn 1998
when the LTCM derivative events occurred ???
the spread has been wider than 1998 for at least two months now
---------------
notice a key chart in Hathaway's gold and economy report
he is the manager of a great gold fund named Toqueville Fund
the Dow/Gold Ratio chart is illuminating
the peaks are getting higher
but the troughs remain at the same low level
in 1980 the ratio reached an incredible level of 1 (one)
Gold rose and Dow fell, as they met, wow
I expect before 2008 that Gold will come close to meeting Dow
it could be 2009-2010, but I doubt later than that
I think they will meet around 2000-2500
some actually expect for silver to surpass even gold
I dont worry about such questions
we have plenty to deal with watching gold, bonds, dollars, stocks
also, notice the years when HM Homestake Mining rose
the crash in stocks was 1929-1931
but the runup in HM share price was really from Jan'31 to 1936
Prechter missed that day in school
thus the best days for gold are dead ahead
the article:
http://www.tocquevillefunds.com/press/archives.php?id=32
--------------------
in the 20th century, man's obsession for gold transformed into one for paper money and extended credit
which carries with it a horrible response from nature
it is called THE CYCLE, actually an AMPLIFIED CYCLE
or THE REVENGE OF GOLD, for having been spurned
and now BOTH !!!
has anyone noticed that the business cycle and financial bull/bust cycle has increased in amplitude each cycle ???
is man's obsession with gold your main objection to it?
how much debt are you carrying?
how much should the USA pay in poverty and depression for 50 years of crimes against the Laws of Economics?
are you aware that Puplava expected a Perfect Storm as early as spring 1999 ?
prescient, I would say
historically the gold markets rally for several years once the real rate of interest on shorterm Trez securities turns to zero or negative
we have had this condition since spring 2001 now
the result has lifted gold and will continue to do so
any concomitant obsession with gold by the public (expected in final years) will offer a mania from which to exploit profits
I will be ready
----------------
(an amusing dispute with a moron on Amazon thread)
now China is a "get rich quick" story ???
I will hereby cease all discussion to you
you are on IGNORE for a simple reason
you are just plain stupid, uninformed, with a poor analytic mind
China is growing its trade surplus with USA at a monthly sequential rate of 5-8%
at an annual rate of over 70-80%
their labor costs are 1/5 of Mexico's
they are landing Billion$ contracts left and right now
not from the typical trinket and clothing mfg
but rather from high-tech mfg, e.g. Lucent
they are building their national bank system reserves with gold
their banks already hold more USTBonds than Japan (> $300B)
their ports are expanding incredibly
China managed to steal military weapons designs from the USA and Pentagon Contractors
their price tag: ZERO
that is smart budget management
compare that to USA Procurement which pays $100 per toilet seat
you are a true moron, not worth my time
read the cover of the latest Business Week issue
feature: CHINA
on IGNORE, goodbye
calling you ignorant is generous
-----------------
(my argument briefly stating comparison to Japan's bust)
USA has not been tested to see the effect of a 70% decline in stock market, and the ensuing deflationary effect
you are still a wretched student of economic history
1987 was a hiccup
Gulf War was a head cold
Asian Meltdown was the opening act climaxing with Y2K Bust, thus connected
WTC attack was broken arm, hurt badly
you have yet to mention DEBT in any message so far
I have an excellent memory
you suffer from avoidance of DEBT issues, and denial of the upcoming horrific consequences
/ jim
Here's another old post-
Posted by: Mr. Ed
In reply to: Mr. Ed who wrote msg# 717 Date: 11/13/2002 8:06:53 AM
Post #
JW-here is one of many- THE COINCIDENCE THEORY'S FATAL FLAW
"In politics nothing happens 'by chance. If something happens, then you can bet that it was planned that way."
-Franklin Delano Roosevelt
It has become standard technique for debunkers of conspiracy theories to counter with the coincidence theory. The coincidence theory assumes that if an act or series of acts seemingly benefits certain individuals and ideologies, it's all explainable as random chance or an act of God.
I'm sure that the unelected President Dubya's Christian base firmly believe that God himself is felling Democrats from the sky with righteous anger. Mel Carnahan, JFK Junior, Paul Wellstone. No doubt, God himself also mailed the anthrax to Tom Daschle and Patrick Leahy.
The obvious comparisons to the death of Mel Carnahan, the Missouri Democrat who was running against John Ashcroft two years ago, have been avoided like the plague by the mainstream media. Also, Mr. Wellstone died 11 days before the election. If he had died 10 days before, the Democratic Party could have left his name on the ballot. He would be a shoe-in as a sympathy vote, then the Dems could find someone later to take his seat. As it is now, the Dems must replace Wellstone. This might be how Karl Rove envisions a Republican victory.
Coincidentally, this time the wife of the prospective Democratic Senator has also died. Fat chance of Mrs. Wellstone running in the place of her husband, as Jean Carnahan did in Missouri.
My belief is that if too many coincidences happen too many times, concurrently and benefiting a select group of sunsofbitches - then coincidence theory goes out the window. Conspiracy is afoot, my friend, and those involved have become emboldened by their deceitful successes since the stolen election and the 9-11 (The great deception)#1 terror attack. Now they have become so arrogant as to be blatantly obvious.
How long will we just sit here and let them kill our dreams, kill our hopes and kill our heroes. How long will we allow them to poison us with lies and false flag terror. How long will we allow them to strip us of our right to fair trials and open investigations?
Time to get off the fence friend.
I'm making plans to head off to the old nickel mine - I'll make sure to wire in the Internet, stay in touch, maybe refurbish the old miner's quarters and kitchen. Might have visitors seeking sanctuary.
How far will the Bush Junta extend their tentacles of terror and propaganda before we stand up to these thugs?
I say the time is now. No more sittin' around hoping to placate these blood lusting imperial terrorists by caving in to their demands for more power and weapons of mass destruction - it only encourages them.
Off to the nickel mine! A redoubt against the coming fascist wave, a place to which like minds can strategize the defense.
And plan the counterattacks.
I digress, more on the nickel mine in future issues.
As for right now, don't give up the fight. Don't let them silence you with the epithet : "You're a conspiracy theorist?" or "What? You're still a Liberal?"
Honor Paul Wellstone's life by picking up the torch from his now stilled hand. Ensure that his voice and his message will not be lost - the one in which he once demanded social justice and meaningful democratic reform in the Senate. Make it yours.
Continue his fight against Bush's War machine and his struggle for meaningful campaign finance reform. Interestingly, Senator Paul Wellstone fought to bolster Americans' privacy rights and limit government surveillance of the Internet.#2
The roster of American politicians actually representing the working poor, the disenfranchised, the disadvantaged and the oppressed are dwindling. If Senator Wellstone stood for anything it was in the conviction that we can all make a difference. If you can't organize, or be involved first hand, there are other ways.
It only takes a moment to write a letter to your political representatives, or newspaper editors, or local TV News director.
Coincidence after coincidence after coincidence...
When do the coincidences end?
As anyone knows, conspiracies do happen. Over and over again, throughout history. In the old testament and new. Certainly, the ancients were no stranger to conspiracies. They wove in divine conspiracies between Gods and demi- Gods, humans and beasts, in their mythologies. Their own human political experience was fraught with internecine revolts, betrayals and coups. And so on throughout the ages, in every civilization, thus has it always been.
One could even say that the founding of the United States of America was a "Masonic" conspiracy.#3
More recently, Iran Contra was surely a conspiracy. Watergate. The Gulf Of Tonkin. The FBI and the CIA spying on their own citizens, sometimes setting them up for criminal prosecution if they have "unfavorable" political views.
It happens.
At this point the fall back line is the following : "Whatever there faults, I can't see any group of Americans going so far as to allow their own citizens to be harmed. No matter what the goal."
One need only look back through the CIA and FBI's history of deceit to answer that one. It has occurred in the past that the US government used their own people as guinea pigs after World war II and during the atomic age.
Or find a copy of James Bamford's book "Body Of Secrets."#4 Look up "Operation Northwoods"#5 and find out how the Joint Chiefs back during JFK's presidency had presented him with a plan. A plan to stage mock terror on their own population and to frame Cuba for it. Thus getting the public behind an invasion of the island.
This was after the failed Bay Of Pigs fiasco, and President Kennedy rejected the plan. In fact, he had become so enraged with the CIA that he threatened to tear the agency apart and "throw it to the winds." A magic bullet cut short those plans. Besides restructuring the intelligence agency, Kennedy was also reputed to be seriously considering pulling out of Vietnam. Kennedy's predecessor, General Dwight D Eisenhower, had warned us all of the danger of the military industrial complex. It didn't matter, the fix was in.
Given an updated version of "Operation Northwoods", probably designed with his father's input, could George W Bush be in any position other than to sign off on it?
George W Bush is no John F Kennedy.
Better yet, get a copy of "The Grand Chessboard"#6, by neo-con strategist Zybigniew Brezhinski. In that book, Brezhinski lays out the future geopolitical struggle for the oilfields of the Mideast. He foretold of the coming "clash of civilizations." He even lays out how to make the Islamic world the West's boogy men - terrorism and an event like Pearl Harbor to get the citizenry behind any wars of aggression.
Besides, making deals with dictators and terrorists are a Bush family calling card. Grandpa Prescott #7 traded with the Nazis, Poppy Bush #8 was a CIA director before becoming President and his fingerprints are all over the atrocities committed in South America - not to mention selling stinger missiles to Iran or helping to create the Hussein monster in Iraq. There's another Prescott, an Uncle, who sits on the US-Chinese trade board. When the massacre in Tianmen Square occurred, it seemed not to faze the Americans on that board. Foreign investment in China increased.
Preston Peet, at disinfo.com,#9 writes:
Just one month after the Tiananmen Square massacre in China, then-President George Bush, whose son is being actively sold as the Republican choice for President in 2000, sent two American envoys to Peking to meet with the Chinese government to reaffirm US business ties to China in secret, Brent Scowcroft, then the National Security Advisor, and Lawrence Eagleberger, the US Deputy Secretary of State. Both of these men had worked for Dr. Henry Kissinger's consulting firm, Kissinger Associates. Neither man would make public his business associates at their confirmation hearings before Congress, but they were confirmed anyway. Kissinger wrote Richard Nixon's China initiatives back in the early 1970s, and Bush's brother Prescott worked for a large consulting firm involved in big business deals with the Chinese government at that time.
(full story)#10
Maybe we should call it "convenience theory."
By the way, we are still waiting for an actual open and independent investigation of 9-11. Don't hold your breath now. Not too many Dems want to #### off the Bush Crime Family. Not with their Black Ops boys running wild.
I absolutely am not surprised how the mainstream media have Lee Harvey Muhammad (the alleged DC sniper - a crazed gunman, natch, only this time it's a package deal. Two patsies for one, but he was still, often, a "lone nut", and he's been reported to tell people he was working for the government #11 as an agent) and his immigrant step son tried, convicted and on death row already. What a charade this will be. Trust me, the Black Ops boys scored a big coup for the neo-cons. Check the prize! A black man, convert to Islam, a bodyguard for Farrakhan, a Jamaican illegal immigrant...
Whoo-hoo! Who'll be able to argue against racial profiling now?
I have to say that it was awful nice of the alleged sniper killers to lay down and go to sleep with the description of their car and their license plate number being blared across all media in the area. Even then, it appears that they needed a CIA plant to phone in the tip, the guy apparently wants no recognition or any of the reward. He said to give it to the families of the sniper victims. Wow. Nice guy. Right.
Never forget this Williams/Muhammad guy was an Army vet, in the Gulf. A sniper. It's not inconceivable he was used as an MK Ultra-type project #12. Forced to work as a double agent, perhaps informing on Farrakhan. Perhaps an unstable personality thanks to drug "therapy" when in the Army. (It's only a vaccine, right.) His CIA handler will no doubt win promotion and a dinner with Poppy Bush, "Let me tell ya, young whippersnapper. When we were psy-opping guys, we had to use more finesse. Our drugs were unpredictable, the LSD thing blew up in our faces. You guys got it soft..."
Learn to read between the lines - be aware of who benefits, whose will is being served.
Speaking of reading between the lines. You'll recall that after the Bali explosion, I theorized that this was an inside job, probably directed by CIA black ops specialists and local operatives working for the Indonesian secret military police. It's become quite apparent to dictator's around the world that going along with this Terror War has benfits for their control of power. It works well with the totalitarian mindset.
Well, word has emerged from Jakarta #13 about the curious presence of generals and East Timor militia commanders in the area prior to the blast. Perhaps that's why the British government run BBC (Blair's Broadcasting Corporation) trotted out a doctored video tape of Osama bin Laden #14 to terrorize Australians - keep them focused on the belief that Al Qaeda lusts for Aussie blood and the defilement of their women. Honest. After all, Colin Powell has warned Australians that the Bali explosion (which targeted a bar frequented primarily by the down-unders) was their 9-11. Osama to the rescue #15, deja vu all over again.
It seems strange that this enigmatic, shadowy Al Qaeda would target Australians when a bar filled with Americans was just down the street. I mean, if they are supposedly in a death struggle with the "great Satan", wouldn't they go after that place? Why hurt your cause by helping your enemy gather allies against you?
I'm not saying that these Islamic extremist sects are nice guys, they are decidedly not. In Indonesia, the religious violence attributed to the local radical Islamists is truly terrible. If they could have pulled this act of terror off by themselves, they would have taken credit for it, tried to exploit it to further their message. Instead, they have denied any involvement.
Closer to home, I am only afraid that there are more "coincidences" on the way. The neo-con elites' trained seals in the media are already barking about more terror attacks. Bridges, grocery stores, harbors...BOOM! Be afraid, inform on your neighbors, especially if they're colored...
After all, this is to be a war without end. We'll never know if we're winning or losing, as it will all be conducted in secrecy and the government will lie to you in order to protect you.
Terror here, terror there, coincidences this, coincidences that...
The fatal flaw of the "coincidence theory" is that there are just too many "fatal coincidences". After too many bodies start piling up, after too many disturbing facts start filtering through to the people, after too many heros are sacrificed, well then...people start to get very pissed off and are mobilized to action. Hopefully, Paul Wellstone's death will not be in vain. Maybe, just maybe, similar to what happened after Martin Luther King's assassination, real change can be realized.
We can only pray.
#1. Canada’s VisionTV breaks television media’s silence on 9/11 questions
http://hamilton.indymedia.org/front.php3?article_id=972&group=webcast
#2. Pro-privacy senator dies in crash
http://news.com.com/2100-1023-963440.html?tag=fd_top
#3. The Esoteric Side Of The Founding Of America
http://www.context.org/ICLIB/IC03/CoriGord.htm
#4. Body of Secrets
http://www.randomhouse.com/features/bamford/home.html
#5. Friendly Fire
Book: U.S. Military Drafted Plans to Terrorize U.S. Cities to Provoke War With Cuba
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/DailyNews/jointchiefs_010501.html
#6. THE GRAND CHESSBOARD: AMERICAN PRIMACY AND ITS GEOSTRATEGIC IMPERATIVES. By Zbigniew Brzezinski.
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/19971101fabook3692/zbigniew-brzezinski/the-grand-chessboard-american-p....
#7. Nazis and Bush family history: Government investigated Bush family's financing of Hitler
By Carla Binion
http://www.rememberjohn.com/Nazis.html
#8. http://www.tarpley.net/bushb.htm
#9. http://www.disinfo.com/
#10. is china buying or spying?
by Preston Peet (ptpeet@cs.com) - February 19, 2001
http://www.disinfo.com/pages/dossier/id229/pg1/
#11. Descent Into Evil
http://www.msnbc.com/news/825625.asp?cp1=1
#12. MkUltra Doucments Table
http://www.heart7.net/mcf/mkdoctable.htm
#13. Police release sketches of Bali bomb suspects
http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailheadlines.asp?fileid=20021028.@01&irec=0
#14. Bin Laden warned Australians were a target of al-Qaida, BBC reports
http://www.canada.com/news/story.asp?id=%7BECDDDBDC-E37A-4DE8-B174-E5D4D3E78EB3%7D
#15. Osama to the Rescue, April 16, 2002.
http://members.shaw.ca/rb.ham/articles/02-04-16-osamatotherescue.htm
JW-link to poster if you wish to look further,imo,worth it-
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/memalias.cgi?member=piffle
I just hope the coming credit crunch,and collapse of the USD is beyond you,physical holdings of silver and gold will,imo,be the key to survival.
Plus being armed,for defensive reasons only,something all those opposed to the Second Amendment seem to forget is we all have not only a Constitutional right to bear arms,but a moral right to defend ourselves,and our families.I think that is the key issue missing in all gun-control discussions,the right to defend oneself.Washington D.C. has the toughest gun-control laws in the country,yet has the highest murder rate,as those that have no regard for the law are allowed to run amuck while citizens have no defense.And god help you if you do shoot someone robbing,or raping you,nevermind the fact you feared for your life at gunpoint,or knifepoint,if you shoot,you are the criminal,this is PC run amuck,imo.On that note,I join the commercial I just saw,and am going to put a sponge on my head,some soap bubbles on the rest of my body,and call myself sponge-ed,no pants.
One last post,actually a repost,with responses.Adios amigos,the new owners suck(ADVFN).
by: Mr. Ed
In reply to: None Date:11/7/2002 10:49:13 PM
Post #of 792
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANKERS..
Then Jesus entered the temple and drove out all who were selling and buying in the temple, and he overturned the tables of the money changers and the seats of those who sold doves. He said to them, "It is written, 'My house shall be called a house of prayer'; but you are making it a den of robbers."
Matthew 21, verses 12-13
"All of the perplexities, confusion, and distress in America arises, not from the defects of the Constitution or Confederation, not from want of honor or virtue, so much as from downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation."
John Adams, Founding Father
(In a letter to Thomas Jefferson, 1787)
Congressman Louis T. McFadden said the following during a speech before Congress on June 10, 1932:
"Mr. Chairman, we have in this country one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever known. I refer to the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve banks. The Federal Reserve Board, a government board, has cheated the Government of the United States and the people of the United States out of enough money to pay the national debt. The depredations and the iniquities of the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve banks acting together have cost this country enough money to pay the national debt several times over. This evil institution has impoverished and ruined the people of the United States; has bankrupted itself, and has practically bankrupted our government. It has done this through the defects of the law under which it operates, through the maladministration of that law by the Federal Reserve Board, and through the corrupt practices of the moneyed vultures who control it.
Some people think the Federal Reserve banks are United States Government institutions. They are not government institutions. They are private credit monopolies which prey upon the people of the United States for the benefit of themselves and their foreign swindlers; and rich and predatory money lenders. In that dark crew of financial pirates there are those who would cut a man's throat to get a dollar out of his pocket; there are those who send money into states to buy votes to control our legislation; and there are those who maintain an international propaganda for the purpose of deceiving us and wheedling us into the granting of new concessions which will permit them to cover up their past misdeeds and set again in motion their gigantic train of crime."
PERVASIVE MONEY PROBLEMS IN AMERICA
Americans, living in "the richest nation on earth," always seem to be short of money. Women are working in unprecedented numbers, men hope for overtime hours to earn more. Many take part-time jobs evenings and weekends. Children look for odd jobs to earn spending money. But the family debt climbs higher. And psychologists say one of the biggest causes of family quarrels and breakups is "arguments over money." Much of this trouble can be traced to our "counterfeit money" system, which leaves government free to perpetrate the most destructive monetary and economic crimes.
On the national scale, in just ten years the federal debt has grown from less than one trillion dollars to over four trillion. (In Chapter Nine we will discover that the real national debt is much bigger.) The annual interest on that debt is over $250 billion. And now we are told (not asked) that we must come up with between $200 billion and $500 billion to "save" the S & L institutions. All this for only one reason: to protect and perpetuate a fundamentally flawed system whose only object is to enrich and empower the Federal Reserve bankers who own and operate the system.
During the last few years America has become by far the largest debtor nation of the world. And our politicians have made their "contributions" with boundless "generosity!" John Danforth, Republican senator from Missouri, was reported in The Arizona Republic of April 21, 1992 as follows:
"I have never seen more senators express discontent with their jobs. ...I think the major cause is that, deep down in our hearts, we have been accomplices to doing something terrible and unforgivable to this wonderful country. Deep down in our hearts, we know that we have bankrupted America and that we have given our children a legacy of bankruptcy. ...We have defrauded our country to get ourselves elected."
PAPER CURRENCY CAN BE A VERY PROFITABLE HUMAN CREATION
Economists use the word "create" when speaking of the process by which paper currency comes into existence. "Creation" means making something that did not exist before. Lumbermen make boards from trees, workers build houses from lumber, and factories manufacture automobiles from metal, glass, and other materials. But in all these cases they did not create. They only changed existing materials into more usable and more valuable forms. Not so with currency. Here we actually create something out of nothing. A piece of paper of little value is printed so it becomes worth a piece of lumber. That difference in value is literally created out of nothing. And with different numbers printed on the piece of paper, it can buy the automobile or even the house. The value of the paper has been created in the true sense of the word.
Paper currency can be created honestly or fraudulently. Gold and silver certificates, being receipts for gold and silver, with a guarantee to pay the bearer on demand, are honest paper currency. Federal Reserve Notes currently in circulation constitute fraudulent, counterfeit paper currency.
Counterfeit paper currency is very cheap to "create," and whoever prints it makes a huge profit! Builders work hard to make a profit of 5% above their cost in building a house. Auto makers sell their cars 1% to 2% above the cost of manufacture, which is considered good business. But counterfeit paper currency "manufacturers" have no limit on their profits since a few cents will print a $1 bill, a $100 bill, or even a $10,000 bill.
THE DANGER OF A MONOPOLISTIC CENTRAL BANK
Thomas Jefferson understood the danger of putting the power to control the currency of a nation in the hands of a few individuals in the form of a monopolistic central bank. This is why he opposed Alexander Hamilton's scheme to establish the First Bank of the United States. Let me repeat what he said in 1791:
"If the American people ever allow the banks to control issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers occupied."
President Andrew Jackson also understood the danger. He refused to renew the charter (a grant of monopoly) of the Second Bank of the United States. In 1836 Jackson said to the bankers trying to persuade him to renew their charter (so they could continue their harmful monopoly):
"You are a den of vipers. I intend to rout you out and by the Eternal God I will rout you out. If the people only understood the rank injustice of our money and banking system, there would be a revolution before morning."
On December 22, 1913, the day before President Woodrow Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act, Congressman Charles A. Lindberg Sr. (father of the famous aviator) said to the House:
"This Act establishes the most gigantic trust
This,imo,is where we are today,only more so.Watch foreclosure rates,and exchange rates,these are the keys,imo.
Does any of this sound familiar?-
Posted by: Mr. Ed
In reply to: None Date:12/29/2002 10:30:57 AM
Post #of 792
December 27, 2002 --
INTERVIEW WITH DR. KURT RICHEBACHER
Late December 2002
Dr. Kurt Richebacher has shown an uncanny ability to spot future economic problems. This former chief economist of the Dresdner Bank warned about the recession and the NASDAQ crash months before they happened. He forecast the collapse of the Asian Tigers in 1998 and blew the whistle on corporate profit tricks long before Enron. When virtually everyone was certain of a V-shaped recovery, he argued that it was impossible.
A master of classical economics, and perhaps, the best analytical economic thinker in the world today, Dr. Richebacher writes a monthly newsletter, "The Richebacher Letter." Given his impressive record of accurate warnings and predictions in the face of almost unanimous disagreement from establishment economists, we think the following interview should be read with deep thought and reflection.
Q Back in March of 1997 you warned that serious problems loom in the heavily indebted miracle economies of the Far East. What caused you to spot this problem?
A Their boom was credit induced. They went heavily into debt to overbuild.
Q Same old story?
A Yes, runaway money and credit growth and the typical symptoms associated with overheating economies - inflation, speculation and financial excess.
Q Then in June of 1998 you said, "Later this year the U.S. economy will abruptly slow down." What did you see?
A Earnings were faltering and corporations were favoring self-defeating financial tricks and accounting ploys, including heavy speculation and leveraging. I wrote that a few were immensely enriched by exploding paper wealth, but savings and capital formation were deplorable.
Q Then you predicted the collapse of the stock market and the technology bubble. How?
A The great speculative manias in history were connected with innovations that generated great popular excitement. That was the case with the Internet and, along with it you had the ever-present deluge of money and credit. Yes, I wrote that a bear market was inevitable.
Q Late in 1999 you were calling it a classic speculative blowoff. Why you and nobody else? I mean, Lawrence Kudlow was saying the Internet was more important than the Fed, and the Dow would be 30,000, then 50,000 and higher.
A Yes, this kind of nonsense was helping to fuel the Wall Street boom. We expected that a sharp decline in tech stocks would be a death blow to the greater U.S. stock market bubble, and it was.
Q In the fall of 2000 the belief was widespread that the U.S. economy would have a soft landing. What were your thoughts on that?
A Well, I wrote hopes for a soft landing in the U.S. economy were completely misplaced. The credit excesses of the late 1990s were many times worse than those in the 1980s and even those of the 1920s. So were the imbalances in the economy and the financial system. You only needed to notice the zero personal savings rate and the stupendous trade deficit. To speak of the U.S. economy's excellent fundamentals in the face of these disastrous facts required a lot of stupidity.
Q Was it the worst credit bubble in history?
A Absolutely.
Q What did you say about the V-shaped recovery that all the experts were predicting back then?
A I wrote that it will come as a great surprise how fast the U.S. economy weakens in the near future.
Q What did you base the prediction on?
A Profits were collapsing, heavily indebted corporations were slowing their spending and new investment in capital goods had caved in. Serious problems were everywhere.
Q That brings us up to today. Will we tip over into recession again?
A Yes. Drastic weakness of the U.S. economy is the great shock waiting to happen for the world. A slumping dollar will turn it into a nightmare.
Q How can you be so certain? Most economists see a recovery.
A I am dismayed at the low level of U.S. economic thinking. Elementary insights into economic processes that have been accepted by all schools of thought for more than 200 years are unknown, discarded or even put on their head. The facts are that you have serious structural problems that exclude any possibility of a sustained economic recovery.
Q Such as?
A As profits decline, a record savings shortfall, a capital spending collapse, an unprecedented consumer borrowing and spending binge, a massive current account deficit, ravaged balance sheets and record high debt levels.
Q Sounds terrible. Is one just as bad as the other?
A Tops among them are the depression of profits and capital spending. They propel each other downward in a vicious spiral.
Q Why are there no mainstream economists saying anything like this?
A Not only economists, but U.S. policymakers and the public are in denial of the gravity of the economic and financial situation.
Q But why?
A The main problem is a lack of understanding and blind faith in the omnipotence of the Federal Reserve.
Q Well, the Fed has aggressively lowered rates. It's worked in the past hasn't it?
A This downturn differs dramatically from all previous postwar recessions. It hasn't been brought about by tight money, but by unsustainable spending excesses that have left behind an overextended financial system.
Q You mean low interest rates aren't working?
A For the first time in the whole postwar period, the U.S. economy and even the stock market has slumped against a backdrop of the most aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the most rampant money and credit growth ever. The forces depressing the U.S. economy this time are radically different from those that fueled past recession.
Q In what respect?
A The profits implosion is the most obvious and the most important.
Q The Fed has pushed down rates to prop up spending. You say low rates aren't working, but people are taking advantage of the low rates to keep spending, aren't they?
A That's right. America is fighting the recession with still more consumer spending excesses.
Q Could the consumer keep the ship afloat?
A Consumer sentiment has been falling. More importantly, the economics data for the past several months conclusively suggests that the American consumer has started to retrench.
Q You never hear that.
A Nobody wants to believe it. One reason may be that there is nothing else in sight to prop up the U.S. economy.
Q But isn't the consumer's income still growing?
A No, growth has stalled and a lot of the growth that there was came from the tax cut.
Q So, consumer spending may stagnate?
A Especially if the consumer continues to rebuild savings, which has just recently been running at three to four percent of disposable income. This will probably increase in the future. That's the kind of thing that will end the borrowing and spending excesses of the boom.
Q Why?
A Any rise in savings exerts a drag on economic growth and this squeezes profits.
Q Well, so far the consumer hasn't slackened measurably.
A They have postponed the day of reckoning by loading themselves with more debt. Much of this debt can't be repaid.
Q As you say, people have faith in the monetary authorities. That's one reason they keep spending.
A This faith is utterly amazing. It overwhelms the facts. It's based on the Federal Reserve creating money and credit with reckless abandon and the consumer borrowing and spending with reckless abandon. Nobody seems to understand the extraordinary excesses of these two and how they have been responsible for the present economic and financial mess.
Q I have to agree with you. People don't see anything foreboding in these developments.
A It's time they did. The economic news is going from bad to worse. Never before has the world experienced such massive destruction of stock market wealth and never before have business profits and business capital spending suffered such steep declines.
Q You see business profits as key to the whole crisis don't you?
A We have continually warned of the economy's unusually poor profit performance during the prior boom years. As the economy sharply slowed during 2001, it turned into a virtual profit implosion. Profit margins are at their lowest since the Depression in the 1930s. Moreover, there is nothing in sight that might reverse this progressive profit erosion.
Q What are the consequences?
A CEO's have capitulated to the profits disaster. Their solution has been a savage curtailment of their investment spending.
Q Why are investment spending and capital formation so important?
A In the end, it is all about capital investment. It is the critical mass in the process of economic growth that generates all the things that make for rising wealth and living standards. Capital investment means the construction of new buildings, plants and equipment. This creates demand, employment, income, profits and tangible wealth. The installation of these capital goods creates growing supply, productivity, employment, incomes and profits that, by the way, also repay the debts. Always remember that capital formation is strategic for generating general prosperity.
Q Okay. So, what's causing the profits decline that's ruining capital investment?
A First, let me say that when you consider the key role of profits in shaping economic activity, it's puzzling how little attention this exceptional profits carnage is getting. Especially since there is nothing in sight that might improve U.S. corporate profitability and stimulate business capital investment.
Q Give us the cause of the profits problem.
A Corporate cost cutting, for one. The widespread measures that individual firms take to improve their own profits have, in the aggregate, the opposite effect on the profits of other firms. Business spending is the key source of business revenues, not consumer spending. A retrenchment in business spending cuts business revenues. Higher profits and higher prosperity cannot possibly come out of general cost cutting.
Q What else impacts profits?
A Rising depreciation charges on plants and equipment are a drag on profits.
Q And?
A Corporations took on an enormous amount of new debt and the interest charges are a record high expense. For example, in 1997, interest expense accounted for 23% of manufacturing profits; in 2001 for almost 100%.
Q But this borrowed money went into productive assets that improved profits, didn't it?
A Very little went to net new investment. It's great bulk went into mergers, acquisitions and stock repurchases, adding nothing to the economy's productive capacity. Huge amounts were dissipated in worthless goodwill, reflecting absurdly high payments for acquisitions.
Q None of this borrowing helped profits?
A No. As profits went down, corporations effectively devastated their balance sheets and credit ratings. The deterioration in credit quality has been unbelievable.
Q Let's get back to the discussion about the profits problem. Any other big drags on profits?
A The most important one of all. The U.S. trade deficit has ravaged U.S. business profits. In four years this deficit has soared from $128 billion to $450 billion annually.
Q How does the trade deficit squeeze profits?
A By directing current income and spending away from domestic producers to foreign producers. The trade deficit implements a direct transfer of profits from the United States to foreign countries. Considering the deficits monstrous size, it massacres U.S. profits.
Q What does this profits decline imply for the stock market?
A U.S. stocks today are still overvalued. The worst part of the bear markets is still to come and it will result in the wholesale destruction of the financial wealth derived from the bubble economy.
Q Only a few years ago we heard stories about an endless boom and a new era. What went wrong?
A Americans new brand of capitalism didn't work. Corporate managers concentrated on creating shareholder value through stock buybacks, cost cutting, mergers and acquisitions. This strategy helped drive share price to absurdly high levels, but the effects on the economy were destructive.
Q Why?
A Mr. Cook, these strategies do not build factories. They do not increase business revenue. To the extent that they curb new investment, which they do, they reduce profits.
Q Could you elaborate?
A Rising prosperity and rising living standards do not come from existing factories, but from new factories. It's not productivity that creates wealth. It's investment spending alone and not consumer spending that propels economic growth. The wealth effects of free enterprise have always accrued through the building of factories, not through the stock market or reckless consumer borrowing and spending.
Q You mean these companies used their capital for financial engineering and speculation rather than building productive facilities?
A Absolutely. As an example, most of the profits in the high tech sector came from huge gains in the stock market.
Q Are you saying the new information technology didn't deliver profits?
A Yes, and it's the greatest irony that the worst profit numbers have come from the high tech sector for which Wall Street was trumpeting unprecedented miracles of productivity and profit growth. These poor profits subsequently turned into a profits collapse.
Q What's your explanation for this failure?
A The importance of information and information technology for production and wealth creation was ridiculously overestimated.
Q Doesn't high tech have the greatest productivity gains?
A Such productivity growth is statistical hot air.
Q I won't go there. I know you think hedonic pricing is statistical nonsense.
A When you see this statistical fudging, it makes us wonder if systematic delusion lies behind these practices.
Q Okay, let's move on. You didn't mention the effect on corporate balance sheets of the new era financing of mergers, acquisitions and stock buybacks.
A Corporate managers leveraged their balance sheets with the recklessness of desperadoes who have everything to gain in the short run and nothing to lose in the long run. They ruined their balance sheets to conceal and offset the increasingly disappointing profit performance.
Q Sounds ugly.
A They substituted more expensive debt for equity. The trick was to fool investors by shrinking the number of shares.
Q I have to say that you were blowing the whistle on these dubious practices long before anyone else.
A The sudden outbreak of profit chicanery was based on the common desire to hide a disastrous profit performance. That's the key point to recognize.
Q Some would argue that it lifted share prices?
A Only temporarily. At best they are saddled with debt that depresses profits and at worst they've ruined their reputations and their future.
Q What are the ramifications of taking on so much debt?
A Declining credit availability for corporations and the possibility of a credit crunch. Badly ravaged, highly fragile balance sheets and very poor profit performance have severely reduced corporate creditworthiness. I cannot imagine a good outcome from this predicament.
Q Let's talk for a moment about savings. What are your concerns about the low savings rate?
A Savings is the indispensable condition for economic growth. Without savings out of current income there can't be an increase in productive facilities or capital stock.
Q How come economists here don't see this as a problem?
A There's a general refusal to see reality. The total carnage of national savings is the U.S. economy's most important predicament. This is the economy's supply of capital.
Q What's happened to the savings we've already accrued?
A They've been squandered to pay for spending the consumers can't afford from their current income. And corporations have been funding dividend payments out of their retained earnings.
Q What happens to countries with low savings?
A They have low investment, low wages and low profits.
Q But the government economists and the Fed are saying we don't have to get it done with savings; we can do it with spending and credit. What about that?
A Ha! I don't think you can turn vice into virtue.
Q Why not?
A Credit creates spending power out of nothing. Credit alone can't sustain a growing economy for long. Today's soaring debt load has to be repaid. I have little doubt that a debt crisis lies ahead. When most of the debt is used for unproductive purposes like consuming and speculation, it must eventually lead into a debt trap. The reckless pursuit of debt is economic insanity.
Q A lot of this is mortgage refinancing isn't it?
A One is tempted to say that the American public is monetizing their homes.
Q And this alarms you?
A I can only say that in Europe to use one's home as collateral is something that neither homeowners nor bankers would consider, except perhaps in the case of an emergency.
Q I've never heard any American economist or Wall Street spokesman speak against it. In fact, they encourage it.
A No doubt. Mortgage refinancing and home equity lending have been at the epicenter of the credit explosion. I must admit to have grossly underestimated this component of the American bubble. I can only say it has removed any doubts that this is by far the greatest and the worst credit bubble that the world has ever seen.
Q But only you and a small handful of critics make mention of it. The public likes it and everybody in the mortgage business is making hay.
A They should enjoy it while they can. The U.S. financial system today hangs in a precarious position. It's a house of cards built on nothing but financial leverage, credit excess, speculation and derivatives.
Q Are we going to fall down and go boom?
A I would say prepare for much worse to come.
Q What's the nature of this recession you predict?
A It will prove unusually severe and long.
Q Why?
A The key to fathoming the severity of the future crisis lies in appreciating the vulnerability of an economy and financial system that have for years been exposed to the most reckless financial expansion and speculation in history.
Q That's Austrian business cycle theory, right?
A Yes, the length and severity of recessions or depressions depend critically on the magnitude of the dislocations and imbalances that have accumulated in the economy during the preceding boom.
Q And that's why you consistently predicted that the U.S. economy was in for a hard landing?
A Yes. Allow me to summarize. The U.S. economy of the 1990s ranks as the worst bubble economy in history. The boom was built on nothing but leverage upon leverage. A vanishing supply of domestic savings was more than subsidized by boundless credit creation for leveraging asset holdings.
Q And the Fed's the culprit?
A The all-important thing to see is that the Federal Reserve abandoned any control of money and credit creation. The power of the American credit machine to create credit out of the blue is unique and unprecedented.
Q Well, some would say it's saved the economy.
A This excessive monetary looseness has only postponed and magnified the coming inevitable crisis.
Q Let's talk about the dollar. You have said that it will weaken, and to some extent, it has. Is there more weakness to come?
A We regard it as an inescapable event. Growing disillusionment with the U.S. economy is the trigger.
Q But doesn't the world like a strong dollar?
A It suited the rest of the world because it boosted their exports and it suited the United States as a boost to its financial markets. In actual fact, the huge capital inflows have become the U.S. financial markets' single most important pillar. Take this pillar away, and those markets will instantly collapse with devastating effects for the U.S. economy, turning quickly into a savage credit crunch.
Q Could it happen that fast?
A The fact is that the exposure of the U.S. financial markets to foreign investors and lenders has grown to such preposterous magnitude during recent years that controlled, gradual dollar devaluation no longer appears feasible. Under today's extreme circumstances, the alternative is only between a strong and a collapsing dollar.
Q Is there any cure for that?
A In order to avoid the worst, the Fed may be forced to drastically raise interest rates?
Q My goodness!
A The dangers that loom on the currency front are immense. The grossly overleveraged U.S. financial system is hostage to a strong dollar and permanent, huge capital inflows. The U.S. trade deficit and the accumulated foreign indebtedness have reached a scale that defies any possible action by central banks. The fate of the dollar is beyond any control.
Q Thank you, sir.
Soros and jimwillieCB gave up on this site on 3/7/2003,for good reason.
I consider JW to be a friend,who knows more about this market than most.If anyone wants the link to his newsletter,just ask.
This I feel is true-
Posted by: JimWillieCB
In reply to: Mr. Ed who wrote msg# 735 Date:11/18/2002 9:21:09 AM
Post #of 792
parallels to 1987 are unmistakable, but totally unlearned
some disturbing social trends that I have detected
these are not small, nor minor in importance
we dont learn from mistakes
instead, we repeat them with amplification
we dont study the past traumatic events
instead, we rewrite history from political agendas
we dont prepare for the next shocking events
instead, we gear the entire society with more leverage and more innovative methods to expand credit
we unfortunately deserve what is coming
USA will be a lesser nation
its citizens will become more impoverished and dependent for care
/ jim
Or this-
Posted by: Mr. Ed
In reply to: None Date:11/25/2002 8:44:58 PM
Post #of 792
Fact or paranoid fiction?
From time to time, the The National Investor wrote about the ongoing efforts of GATA (the Gold Antitrust Action Group) to shed light on their contention that gold prices have been artificially controlled by a cabal which includes our own Federal Reserve. In short, GATA has assembled considerable evidence that various financial institutions have made a bundle of money in recent years by betting on the decline in the gold price. This was done in a variety of ways; "short sales" of borrowed gold from central banks, hedging on the part of some major mining companies and the creation of complex derivative transactions among them. Until recently, these bets paid off handsomely, as gold went from over $400 per ounce in January, 1996 to lows around $250 per ounce more recently.
The trouble now is that, with gold prices having bottomed and now starting to rise, many of these same institutions face potential disaster. It has been reported, for example, that the banking powerhouse JP Morgan, Chase has over $40B of exposure to gold-related derivative contracts; these instruments could destroy Morgan's overall financial health in the event the gold price were to spike considerably higher. Thus, to protect Morgan and certain other financial houses in the same boat to one extent or another, it has been claimed that the world's central banks-led by the Fed-are now conspiring to keep the gold price from rising too much. Further, the way this effort is being conducted has opened up the entire financial system to a potential meltdown if the bankers fail in their suppression efforts.
Though GATA's claims, if true (which is likely) paint the picture of impending danger for the financial markets equal to or greater than anything currently in the Establishment news, they have none the less [sic] received short shrift. For the most part, the group and its adherents are dismissed as "wackos" and "conspiracy theorists" who are simply trying to come up with excuses for the lousy investment performance of gold throughout much of the last two decades. Meanwhile, a financial time bomb with possible ramifications extending well beyond the gold market itself continues to tick.
However, the recent publication of a March, 2002 report obtained by GATA has given significant new credibility to the group's claims. It has also made some people in the financial world extremely nervous. It seems that well-regarded mutual fund manager John Embry of Royal Bank of Canada authored a report on the gold market for his peers at the bank early this Spring. In it, he offered his viewpoint that - among other things - there has indeed been a "conspiracy" to suppress the gold price, the suppression has been engineered chiefly by the US Federal Reserve, and that the Fed is scared to death that it could lose control and have tens of billions of dollars worth of gold-related derivatives to clean up one day. Somehow, this report made its way outside the four walls of RBC, and ended up in the hands of Bill Murphy at GATA. Needless to say, Murphy has spread Embry's report far and wide. I would too, if I were him; after all, Embry is one of the most highly regarded money managers in North America. His firm is not some local coin shop where local militia members come to talk conspiracy over coffee all day long, nor is it the publisher of one of the many sales-oriented newsletters that hawk gold come Hell or high water. It is one of the biggest financial companies in Canada.
For their part, embarrassed (and quite angry) Royal Bank officials were quick to claim that Embry's report does not represent the bank's views. Instead, they say this was a report meant for other managers and big shots at RBC, and was not intended for public consumption. Bottom line, the bank is hopping mad that, of all the people who got their hands on this, it was Bill Murphy. (NOTE: Murphy claims that this report also went to some of the "biggest and best" clients of the bank, one of whom forwarded it to him.) Embry cannot be dismissed, however - and he is respected enough that this report is turning some heads as more people read it. As Matthew Ingram of Toronto's Globe and Mail put it in one article on this crazy story, getting such a well-regarded money manager from a major bank to essentially agree with what GATA has been saying for a few years now is, ". . .a bit like the US government admitting that yes, there was a top-level CIA plot to assassinate former president John F. Kennedy, and the whole lone-gunman theory was just a crock."
http://www.alertinvestor.com/pages/112502.htm
Hey THG,remember this?-
Posted by: Mr. Ed
In reply to: None Date:12/15/2002 8:27:07 AM
Post #of 792
JW-I'm sure you've seen this,any comments?
Extremely Rare & Symmetrical Gold Cup with Handle Breaks Out to the Upside
This is a momentous occasion and something you may not see again
technically in your trading career. Not only is it rare to see this
formation, but rarer even to see any formation with such symmetry. The more
symmetrical a formation is, the more meaningful it is. The longer it takes
to construct a rare formation like this, the more meaningful the formation
is.
Now, IMO, not only is $348-$354 assured, but also that price will occur by
Christmas.
A rare formation of this quality and time to construct indicates that my
fundamental conclusions are correct. Those conclusions mean that we are
early in a very long bull market in gold. The market is the final
arbitrator and it is there that my final report card will be delivered. The
drama of gold will have many acts and challenges, but it has $529 now
written on it.
I suggest you save the chart given to you this evening on the technical
review. In your career, whenever you see this again, in anything, you will
know what to do.
Click on following link to view chart:
http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/tech/review/121202.htm
btw,CYRX was a buy under 1.00,now everything is in the hands of daytraders,I see no reason for another rise to 1.75,or above.PPHM is one to look at for another rise to the 1.40-1.60 range,currently 1.11.
No it isn't,but no one truly knows why the bees are disappearing,theories abound,and the facts remain hidden.
You can bet the Bush administration is looking at you.Not at me,I'm too cute.
Dateline 4/20/07-NEWSFLASH-Scientists claim priapism to be the worst thing a woman could want,it could lead to a silly smile on the face of a woman within 12 hours.No scientist wants to deal with that,it might discredit all so-called research which has heretofore shown that we males can't keep it up that long,so it must be called "priapism".BS.
Headline-Mobile phones killing all sponge-bob no-pants.CNN reports that almost all males that saw the sponge-Bob no pants commercial have been murdered by their wives for wearing a sponge on their head,and naked elsewhere,wearing a few bubbles at best.When the wives saw what was supposed to be hidden,all control was lost,that's when the shooting started.
BS,period.
Headline-
Mobile phones causing brain damage in homo sapiens,text messaging is one of major results,humans can no longer communicate intelligently,must resort to abbreviated messages due to lack of ability to spell.Reverse evolution is now at work(aka devolution).hehe
No one believes it,and that's all that matters.Everyone is drinking the Kool-Aid.