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China Property Sector
Short-term stimulus but recovery takes time
Event: News on possible measure to stabilize property market
According to the Economic Observer and other mainland media, People’s Bank
of China (PBOC), National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)
and Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) met the
industry representatives in June. It might signal the government was
concerned the rapid slump of the property industry would post a risk of
recession to the general economy.
It was reported that the government was in the progress to assess the effect of
the cooling down of the property market to the overall economy. Since
property and relevant industries constitute a considerable portion to the
general economy, it is concerned that the rapid industry downturn would
produce a negative wealth effect to the population.
It was even quoted that new measures might possibly be launched soon to
stabilize the property market.
Our opinion: We believe an affordable and stable property price is essential to
the social stability, and thus we think the government is eager to see a steady
growth of property price, instead of frequent volatile price movement.
However, we guess the government may possibly use speech and rumour to
test the market response first at this moment. We think actual measures for
stabilizing the market might be launched at a later stage.
Moreover, the focus seems to be primarily on the risk of a recession to the
economy, rather than the difficulties faced by the developers. Therefore, we
believe the possible new measures (if any) would target on stimulating
property price and transaction volume, instead of assisting developers to
weather their problems such as loan curb and decreasing sales.
We believe the major challenges of the industry would be the lack of
confidence on buyers’ side, increasing supply and tightening loan policy. The
cumulative transaction value and volume for the first five months this year
dropped by 2.8% and 7.2% respectively
antallet af biler solgt i kina for mere end 15 år siden er mindre end 10% af bilparken
så det er ikke muligt at skrotte flere gamle biler, end dem der eksisterer
bilparken i 2000 var ca 20 mio og i dag når 2008 slutter er den i 70 mio og i 1993 var den ca 10 mio og om 5 år er den på ca 120-150 mio eller mere
så de mange rustne lig du snakker om kan kun være en brøkdel af bilparken
hvornår lærer du at tænke klart?
nyvognssalget er på næsten 11 mio og skrotningen er på under 1 mio
du tager som sædvanlig fejl i din 'analyse' af tingenes tilstand
aircraft leasing aktier er faldet for meget
https://www.citigroupgeo.com/pdf/SNA21465.pdf
A couple of days ago Aircastle Ltd. (AYR) gave a presentation at the Credit Suisse Capital Goods Finance Symposium and it has posted the slide show to its website. The link above is a PDF presentation of the slide show.
Going through the slides, it is apparent that Aircastle is in fine shape with its leased aircraft. From what information I could find about the recent share price drop, there are two fears driving investors away from AYR. First, the general profitability problems for airlines with the recent fuel price increases and indication by many airlines to reduce flights. Second, a specific claim by one of Aircastle’s customers, US Airways (LCC), to turn in some leased aircraft. From the presentation it appears that the company will not have a problem keeping its aircraft leased and the US Airways jets are on uncancelable leases.
The financials for Aircastle appear strong. Its debt load is less than 75% of the book value of its jets and the book value understates the market value. It is able to get its aircraft that are coming off lease released at higher rates and already has over half of the jets coming off in 2009 committed with letters of intent. Finally, Aircastle is projected to earn over $4.00 in free cash flow per share (earnings + depreciation) in 2008, easily covering the $1.00 dividend. It looks like the company is conserving its cash, but I hope it starts increasing the dividend soon.
I believe Aircastle has been hammered, along with almost every stock I can think of that is in a financial business. At this time the market is not discriminating between companies in good shape and those that have problems. It is having a sell-off of all of them. I cannot predict when the carnage will end, but I recently added to my position in AYR
hvem kender noget til helium-aktier?
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gas ballooning, as an adventure sport, is likely to fade away in the United States, as a sharp spike in helium prices and supply constraints threaten the survival of the sport.
Gas balloons, are mainly used by ballooning enthusiasts to set distance records, with flights lasting as long as two or three days.
Unlike the more common hot-air balloons, which use propane as a fuel, gas balloons use helium or hydrogen for flights. Hydrogen ballooning is almost nonexistent in the United States, due to the highly flammable nature of the gas.
"Price is just about to drive gas ballooning extinct in this country," said Andy Cayton, an avid gas balloonist and retired army helicopter pilot who runs balloon rides in Georgia.
The price for a full tank of gasoline for cars might be exorbitant these days, but filling up a helium-filled gas balloon could cost over $12,000. And that's just the gas; buying a gas balloon itself can cost about $30,000.
Two to three years ago, the cost to fill a helium balloon of the same size was about $3,000.
The prohibitive cost is one of the main reasons that the adventure sport is small in the United States. There are about 5,000 qualified hot air balloonists in the country, but less than one-tenth of that total are qualified gas balloonists.
A part of the price escalation is driven by escalating energy, fuel and other operational costs as well as the growing demand for helium from other sectors. Continued...
RNS Number : 9822V Wagon PLC 04 June 2008
NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION IN WHOLE OR IN PART IN OR INTO AUSTRALIA, CANADA, JAPAN, SOUTH AFRICA OR THE UNITED STATES
4 June 2008
Wagon plc
Proposed re-financing initiatives
Wagon plc ("Wagon", "the Group", "the Company"), the European automotive components group, today announces proposed re-financing initiatives to realise growth opportunities and to place the Group in a stronger financial position to continue pursuing its strategy.
· Terms agreed on EUR155 million Revised Debt Facilities with five banks, including existing and new lenders, to replace the existing EUR166 million facilities that expire on 31 December 2008. The Revised Debt Facilities comprise EUR125 million three year credit facilities and a EUR30 million revolving loan facility for 364 days. The Revised Debt Facilities are conditional on the receipt of the Rights Issue Proceeds.
· Proposed 10 for 1 Rights Issue at 4 pence per share to raise approximately £49 million (before expenses). The Rights Issue has been underwritten in full by funds managed by WL Ross, a major shareholder in Wagon.
· In order to issue the Rights Issue Shares at the proposed price, the Capital Reorganisation is required to reduce the nominal value of each ordinary share to 1 penny.
· The Takeover Panel has agreed to waive any obligation on any member of the Concert Party to make a mandatory offer under Rule 9 of the Takeover Code, subject to the approval of the Independent Ordinary Shareholders on a poll at the General Meeting.
· The net proceeds of the Rights Issue will be used in part to provide capital expenditure funding to support the Company*s recent contract successes and to partly prepay the Existing Debt Facilities.
· Proposed sale and leaseback of two freehold German properties to raise approximately EUR34.5 million (before expenses). The Board intends to use the net proceeds of the Property Disposal to reduce the Revised Debt Facilities to approximately EUR125 million.
· The successful completion of the Rights Issue, the Revised Debt Facilities and Property Disposal will ensure the Company is in a stronger financial position to continue pursuing its corporate strategy. In particular:
it provides funding to develop recent contract wins with Iveco, Honeywell and Porsche;
it provides funding headroom to confidently bid for several further significant opportunities; and
it provides new banking facilities on normal commercial terms, removing uncertainty regarding Wagon*s financial position.
In considering the need to refinance the Existing Debt Facilities, the Board reviewed the options available to the Company in accessing appropriate borrowing facilities at the current time. The Board concluded that an injection of new equity, via the Rights Issue, was necessary to achieve such a refinancing on satisfactory terms in the current financial markets.
Jrgen von Heyden, recently appointed Chief Executive of Wagon, said:
"These refinancing proposals are a key part of our strategy for the continued development of the Group and will put Wagon in a much stronger financial position from which to secure the benefits of the recent contract wins.
Wagon continues to pursue its strategy to become a key strategic supplier to the automotive industry. We have made significant progress over the past year in improving operational and financial performance and this focus will continue. We will also continue to seek out opportunities for growth, both organic and by acquisition.
Today's refinancing measures give us confidence that we will be able to capitalise on growth opportunities as they occur."
Further details of all these proposals are set out below, and therefore this summary should be read in conjunction with the full text of this announcement.
For further information:
Wagon plc 0121 770 4030
Jrgen von Heyden, Chief Executive Richard Cotton, Finance Director
Hoare Govett Limited (Financial adviser, sponsor and broker) 020 7678 8000 Ranald McGregor-Smith (Corporate Broking) Luke Simpson (Corporate Broking) Justin Jones (Financial Advisory)
Hogarth Partnership 020 7357 9477
James Longfield Anthony Arthur
This announcement is an advertisement and not a prospectus and investors should not subscribe for or purchase any Nil Paid Rights, Fully Paid Rights or Rights Issue Shares referred to in this announcement except on the basis of information in the Prospectus which is expected to be published by Wagon shortly in connection with the Rights Issue. Copies of the Prospectus will, following publication, be available from the Company's registered office. This announcement does not constitute, or form part of an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to subscribe for or buy, any Rights Issue Shares. Any decision to invest in the Rights Issue Shares should only be made on the basis of information in the Prospectus which contains further details relating to Wagon in general as well as a summary of the risk factors to which an investment in the Rights Issue Shares is subject. The Prospectus and Provisional Allotment Letters relating to the Rights Issue are expected to be issued shortly.
This announcement is not an offer of securities for sale in the United States. The Nil Paid Rights, the Fully Paid Rights, the Rights Issue Shares and the Provisional Allotment Letters will not be offered or sold in the United States or to or for the account or benefit of a person located in the United States unless registered under the Securities Act or pursuant to an exemption from such registration. The Nil Paid Rights, the Fully Paid Rights, the Rights Issue Shares and the Provisional Allotment Letters have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act and no public offering of the Nil Paid Rights, the Fully Paid Rights, the Rights Issue Shares or the Provisional Allotment Letters will be made in the United States.
This announcement does not constitute an offer of Nil Paid Rights, Fully Paid Rights, Rights Issue Shares or Provisional Allotment Letters to any person with a registered address in, or who is resident in, Australia, Canada, Japan or South Africa. None of the Nil Paid Rights, the Fully Paid Rights, the Rights Issue Shares or the Provisional Allotment Letters has been or will be registered under the relevant laws of any state, province or territory of Australia, Canada, Japan or South Africa. The Prospectus does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy Rights Issue Shares or to take up entitlements to Nil Paid Rights in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is unlawful. Subject to certain limited exceptions, neither the Prospectus, the Provisional Allotment Letter nor this announcement will be distributed in or into Australia, Canada, Japan or South Africa.
Hoare Govett Limited, which is regulated and authorised in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority, is acting exclusively as financial adviser, sponsor and broker to Wagon and for no-one else in connection with the Rights Issue, the Rule 9 Waiver, the Capital Reorganisation and the Property Disposal and will not be responsible to anyone other than Wagon for providing the protections afforded to clients of Hoare Govett or for providing advice in relation to the Rights Issue, the Rule 9 Waiver, the Capital Reorganisation and the Property Disposal, the contents of this announcement and the accompanying documents or any matters or arrangements referred to herein or therein.
Hoare Govett may, in accordance with applicable legal and regulatory provisions, engage in transactions in relation to the Nil Paid Rights, the Fully Paid Rights, the Rights Issue Shares and/or related instruments for their own account. Except as required by applicable law or regulation, Hoare Govett does not propose to make any public disclosure in relation to such transactions.
The release, publication or distribution of this announcement in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law and therefore persons in such jurisdictions into which this announcement is released, published or distributed should inform themselves about and observe such restrictions.
Prices and values of, and income from, shares may go down as well as up and an investor may not get back the amount invested. It should be noted that past performance is no guide to future performance. Persons needing advice should consult an independent financial adviser.
The statements contained in this announcement that are not historical facts may be "forward-looking'' statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Wagon's control and all of which are based on Wagon's current beliefs and expectations about future events. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "believes'', "expects'', "may'', "will'', "could'', "should'', "intends'', "estimates'', "plans'', "assumes'' or "anticipates'' or the negative thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology, or by discussions of strategy that involve risks and uncertainties. In addition, from time to time, Wagon or its representatives have made or may make forward-looking statements orally or in writing. Furthermore, such forward-looking statements may be included in, but are not limited to, press releases or oral statements made by or with the approval of an authorised executive officer of Wagon. These forward-looking statements and other statements contained in this announcement regarding matters that are not historical facts involve predictions. No assurance can be given that such future results will be achieved; actual events or results may differ materially as a result of risks and uncertainties facing Wagon and its subsidiaries. Such risks and uncertainties could cause actual results to vary materially from the future results indicated, expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements contained in this announcement speak only as of the date of this announcement and neither Wagon nor the Sponsor undertakes no duty to, and will not necessarily, update any of them in light of new information or future events, except to the extent required by applicable law, the Prospectus Rules, the Listing Rules and the Disclosure Rules and Transparency Rules.
Without limitation, the contents of the websites of the Group do not form part of this announcement. PROPOSED RIGHTS ISSUE, RULE 9 WAIVER, CAPITAL REORGANISATION AND PROPERTY DISPOSAL
Introduction
The Company announces today that it has entered into the Revised Debt Facilities of EUR155 million to replace the Existing Debt Facilities of EUR166 million which are due to expire on 31 December 2008. The revised structure of the Company's debt position is expected to result in a reduction in interest costs of approximately £2 million in the year ending 31 March 2009 (£3 million in a full year) (this statement is not intended to constitute a profit forecast for the financial year ending 31 March 2009 or for any other period). The Revised Debt Facilities, which are conditional on the receipt of the Rights Issue Proceeds, are required to provide working capital to the Group going forward.
In considering the need to refinance the Existing Debt Facilities, which expire on 31 December 2008, the Board has reviewed the options available to the Company in accessing appropriate borrowing facilities at the current time. The Board has concluded that an injection of new equity is necessary to achieve such a refinancing on satisfactory terms in the current financial markets and so the Company intends, subject amongst other things to the passing of certain resolutions by Ordinary Shareholders, to raise approximately £49 million (before expenses) by way of a fully underwritten Rights Issue. The proceeds of the Rights Issue will be used (a) to fund capital expenditure for recently awarded contracts and further contract opportunities over the next three years, (b) to prepay a portion of the Existing Debt Facilities, and (c) to provide working capital for the Group.
The Existing Debt Facilities will be refinanced in part by EUR11 million (£9 million) of the net proceeds of the Rights Issue and in part by the Revised Debt Facilities (as to EUR155 million).
Before proceeding with the Rights Issue, the Company's Ordinary Share capital will be reorganised by means of the Capital Reorganisation which will involve: (i) the subdivision and reclassification of each issued Ordinary Share into one New Ordinary Share of 1 penny and one Deferred Share of 24 pence; and (ii) the subdivision of each authorised but unissued Ordinary Share into 25 New Ordinary Shares of 1 penny each. On completion of the Capital Reorganisation, each Ordinary Shareholder will hold one New Ordinary Share and one Deferred Share for each Ordinary Share currently held.
The Rights Issue, which is conditional on, amongst other things, the Resolutions (other than the resolution relating to the Property Disposal) being approved by Ordinary Shareholders, is being made on the basis of 10 Rights Issue Shares for each New Ordinary Share in issue (and also for each New Ordinary Share that would have been in issue if the Preference Shareholders' conversion rights had been exercisable and had been exercised in full on the Record Date) after the Capital Reorganisation, and is expected to result in the issue of up to 1,218,668,810 Rights Issue Shares, representing approximately 1,050 per cent. of the New Ordinary Share Capital of the Company immediately after the Capital Reorganisation and approximately 91.3 per cent. of the Enlarged New Ordinary Share Capital following completion of the Rights Issue.
The Rights Issue has been underwritten in full by WLR Fund III, WLR Fund IV and WLR Fund IV ESC. The Underwriters are presumed to be acting in concert with an Ordinary Shareholder (being WLR Fund II) for the purposes of the Takeover Code and it is a condition of the Underwriting Agreement and a requirement of the Takeover Code that the Independent Ordinary Shareholders approve the waiver of any requirement for any member of the Concert Party to make a mandatory offer to Ordinary Shareholders and Preference Shareholders in accordance with Rule 9 of the Takeover Code in the event that, as a result of subscribing for Rights Issue Shares being issued pursuant to the Rights Issue and/or under the terms of the Underwriting Agreement, the Concert Party comes to hold, in aggregate, 30 per cent. or more of the voting rights in the Enlarged New Ordinary Share Capital.
The Takeover Panel has agreed to waive any obligation on any member of the Concert Party to make a mandatory offer, subject to the approval of the Independent Ordinary Shareholders on a poll at the General Meeting.
Finally, Wagon is also pleased to announce that it has entered into the Property Disposal Agreement with WGN (Ger) LLC to sell and lease back two freehold properties located at Waldaschaff and Nagold in Germany. The consideration for the Property Disposal is approximately EUR34.5 million (before expenses). Given its size, the Property Disposal constitutes a Class 1 transaction under the Listing Rules and so requires the approval of Ordinary Shareholders at the General Meeting. The Directors intend to use the net proceeds of the Property Disposal to reduce the Revised Debt Facilities to approximately EUR125 million.
Under the terms of the Property Disposal Agreement, Wagon has agreed to a cost reimbursement arrangement, under which it would bear various costs and expenses (including those of the Property Purchaser) incurred in connection with the Property Purchase Agreement in certain circumstances. Given that this proposed reimbursement arrangement is not, in all circumstances, subject to a limit on the amount of costs and expenses that may need to be reimbursed, it constitutes a Class 1 transaction under the Listing Rules and so requires the approval of Ordinary Shareholders at the General Meeting.
The Directors believe that successful completion of the Rights Issue, the Revised Debt Facilities and the Property Disposal will ensure the Company is in a stronger financial position to continue pursuing its corporate strategy.
Accordingly, the Directors will convene a General Meeting at which the Resolutions will be proposed.
Background to and reasons for the Rights Issue, the Rule 9 Waiver, the Capital Reorganisation and the Property Disposal
Overview of the Wagon Group, its objectives and corporate strategy
The Wagon Group is a leading European automotive group, operating predominantly in Europe, which is focused on the design, engineering and manufacture of products for the automotive industry, both at the OEM and Tier 1 supplier level. Wagon is principally focused on automotive structures with particular expertise in roll-forming, stretch-bending, medium and large-sized stampings, welding, coating, fine blanking and assembly and also has product expertise in glazing and shading systems and cargo management.
The Wagon Group is focused on offering collaborative engineering and manufacturing expertise for structural assemblies, closures, closure mechanisms and comfort systems.
Wagon's strategy is centred on operational excellence, technology and innovation, and increasing value-added content to the customer. This strategy is facilitated by Wagon increasing its involvement in the manufacturing and development processes of its OEM customers, moving Wagon from the position of component manufacturer to module and assembled structures supplier. In addition, the Wagon Group has sought to leverage its presence in the main European vehicle manufacturing countries.
Since the acquisition of Oxford in April 2006, Wagon has opened new manufacturing plants in China (Shanghai), Spain (Orense) and Romania (Pogoanele) in order to service its existing customers better and to broaden its customer base. The strategy has generated recent success for Wagon when it secured significant contracts with Iveco and Honeywell and its first contract for Porsche in a number of years. Wagon is looking to extend further its low-cost manufacturing operations in the future.
The Group has recently secured attractive new contracts which require investment in engineering and capital expenditure, the benefits of which will bring enhanced revenue and earnings from financial year 2009/10 (this statement is not intended to constitute a profit forecast for the financial years ending 31 March 2009 and 31 March 2010, or for any other period). However, notwithstanding its achievements, the Company's net debt has grown partly due to the high cost of the restructuring which followed the acquisition of Oxford and due to the sales volumes weakness immediately following that acquisition. The Company's net debt has also been impacted by a material exceptional transaction cost relating to an aborted acquisition as announced on 28 March 2008 and by exchange rate fluctuations, as a result of being exposed to largely Euro-denominated debt.
As a result, the Board has considered the need to refinance the Existing Debt Facilities, which expire on 31 December 2008, and has reviewed the options available to the Company in accessing appropriate borrowing facilities at the current time. The Board has concluded that an injection of new equity is necessary in order to achieve such a refinancing on satisfactory terms in the current financial markets and therefore the Company has entered into the Revised Debt Facilities which are dependent on the receipt of the Rights Issue Proceeds. The Board recommends unanimously that Ordinary Shareholders vote in favour of the Resolutions proposed at the General Meeting.
The net proceeds of the Rights Issue are being raised in order to support the Revised Debt Facilities. The net proceeds will be used for the following purposes:
APPROXIMATELY EUR34 MILLION (£27 MILLION) TO FUND CAPITAL EXPENDITURE FOR RECENTLY AWARDED CONTRACTS AND OTHER CONTRACT OPPORTUNITIES OVER THE NEXT THREE YEARS;
APPROXIMATELY EUR11 MILLION (£9 MILLION) TO PREPAY A PORTION OF THE EXISTING DEBT FACILITIES; AND
APPROXIMATELY EUR10 MILLION (£8 MILLION) TO PROVIDE WORKING CAPITAL FOR THE GROUP.
The Board intends to use the net proceeds of the Property Disposal to reduce the Revised Debt Facilities to approximately EUR125 million.
The Rights Issue
Reasons for the Rights Issue
The Existing Debt Facilities, which consist of bank debt and private placement notes, are due to expire on 31 December 2008. The Company has been seeking alternative financing packages and has entered into the Revised Debt Facilities of EUR155 million to refinance the Existing Debt Facilities of EUR166 million. In considering the need to refinance the Existing Debt Facilities, the Board has reviewed the options available to the Company in accessing appropriate borrowing facilities at the current time. The Board has concluded that an injection of new equity is necessary to achieve such a refinancing on satisfactory terms in the current financial markets. The revised structure of the Company's debt position is expected to result in a reduction in interest costs of approximately £2 million in the year ending 31 March 2009 (£3 million in a full year) (this statement is not intended to constitute a profit forecast for the financial year ending 31 March 2009 or for any other period).
The Revised Debt Facilities, which are conditional on, amongst other things, receipt of the Rights Issue Proceeds, are required to provide working capital to the Group going forward.
As a result, Wagon is seeking to raise approximately £49 million (before expenses) by way of a fully underwritten Rights Issue, the net proceeds of which will be used partly to provide capital expenditure funding to support the Company's recent contract successes and future contract opportunities, partly to prepay the Existing Debt Facilities and partly to provide working capital for the Group. WL Ross, which through the WLR Wagon Shareholders, is interested in approximately 15.06 per cent. of the Company's existing issued Ordinary Share capital, has arranged for WLR Fund III and WLR Fund IV, each being a fund managed by WL Ross, and WLR Fund IV ESC, a fund managed by Invesco WLR IV Associates, LLC, a member of the WL Ross funds' structure, to underwrite the Rights Issue in full. The Board believes this commitment demonstrates WL Ross' strong support for the Company's corporate strategy.
The Directors believe that the successful completion of the Rights Issue and the Revised Debt Facilities will ensure the Company is in a stronger financial position to continue pursuing its strategy.
In order to enable the Company to undertake the Rights Issue, the Rights Issue is conditional on, amongst other things, the approval by Ordinary Shareholders of the Capital Reorganisation, the disapplication of statutory pre-emption rights and the approval of the Independent Ordinary Shareholders of the Rule 9 Waiver at the General Meeting.
Information about the Rights Issue
The Company is proposing to raise gross proceeds of approximately £49 million by way of an underwritten Rights Issue of up to 1,218,668,810 New Ordinary Shares. Subject to the fulfilment of, amongst others, the conditions described in the sub-paragraph entitled 'Principal terms and conditions of the Rights Issue' below, the Rights Issue Shares will be offered by way of rights to Qualifying Shareholders at 4 pence per Rights Issue Share, payable in full on acceptance. The Rights Issue will be on the basis of:
10 Rights Issue Shares for each Ordinary Share
held by and registered in the names of Ordinary Shareholders on the Record Date (and, in the case of Preference Shareholders, for each Ordinary Share that would have been held on the Record Date if the conversion rights attaching to the relevant number of Preference Shares had been exercisable and had been exercised in full on the Record Date), and so in proportion for any other number of Ordinary Shares then held (and that would have then been held if the conversion rights attaching to the Preference Shares had been exercisable and had been exercised in full on the Record Date). The Capital Reorganisation does not affect the number of Rights Issue Shares to which a Qualifying Shareholder is entitled under the Rights Issue.
Any fractions of Rights Issue Shares will not be allotted to Qualifying Shareholders and, where necessary, fractional entitlements will be rounded down to the nearest whole number of Rights Issue Shares. Such fractions will be aggregated and, if possible, sold in the market for the benefit of the Company as soon as practicable after the commencement of dealings in the Rights Issue Shares, nil paid.
Assuming that the market price of a New Ordinary Share immediately after completion of the Capital Reorganisation remains the same as the market price of an existing Ordinary Share immediately prior to the Capital Reorganisation, the Rights Issue Price of 4 pence per Rights Issue Share represents a discount of approximately 72.4 per cent. to the theoretical Closing Price of a New Ordinary Share (by reference to the Closing Price of an Ordinary Share) of 14.5 pence on 3 June 2008 (being the last practicable date prior to the publication of this announcement).
The Rights Issue is expected to result in the issue of up to 1,218,668,810 Rights Issue Shares, representing approximately 1,050 per cent. of the New Ordinary Share Capital of the Company immediately after the Capital Reorganisation and approximately 91.3 per cent. of the Enlarged New Ordinary Share Capital following completion of the Rights Issue.
If a Qualifying Shareholder does not take up the offer of Rights Issue Shares, his/her proportionate shareholding will be diluted by approximately 91.3 per cent.
Possible impact of Rights Issue on the number of New Ordinary Shares in public hands
If sufficient Qualifying Shareholders do not take up their pro rata entitlement to Rights Issue Shares, and the Underwriters are obliged to subscribe for such Rights Issue Shares under the terms of the Underwriting Agreement, it is possible that less than 25 per cent. of the Enlarged New Ordinary Share Capital would be held in public hands (for the purposes of Listing Rule 6.1.19R).
In such circumstances, the Board intends to cancel the listing of the New Ordinary Shares on the Official List and immediately to seek the admission of the New Ordinary Shares to trading on AIM, where no such free float requirement applies. As such, the approval of Ordinary Shareholders is sought by the Board in order to facilitate the cancellation of the listing of the New Ordinary Shares on the Official List and the admission of the Ordinary Shares to trading on AIM, but the Board only intends to exercise this authority in the event that less than 25 per cent. of the Enlarged New Ordinary Share Capital is held in public hands following the Rights Issue (for the purposes of Listing Rule 6.1.19R).
Principal terms and conditions of the Rights Issue
The Rights Issue is conditional, amongst other things, upon:
(i) the passing of the Resolutions (other than the resolution relating to the Property Disposal) at the General Meeting;
(ii) the Underwriting Agreement having become unconditional in all respects (save for the condition relating to Admission) and not having been terminated (and no termination rights existing under it have arisen) before Admission; and
(iii) Admission taking place.
The Rights Issue Shares will, when issued, rank pari passu in all respects with the New Ordinary Shares in issue immediately after the Capital Reorganisation, including the right to receive all dividends and other distributions hereafter declared, made or paid.
Applications will be made to the UK Listing Authority and to the London Stock Exchange for the Rights Issue Shares to be admitted, nil paid and fully paid, to the Official List and to trading on the London Stock Exchange's main market for listed securities.
The Rule 9 Waiver
The Rights Issue has been fully underwritten by the Underwriters. The Underwriters are presumed to be acting in concert with an Ordinary Shareholder (being WLR Fund II) for the purposes of the Takeover Code and it is a condition of the Underwriting Agreement and a requirement of the Takeover Code that the Independent Ordinary Shareholders approve the waiver of any requirement for any member of the Concert Party to make a mandatory offer to Ordinary Shareholders and Preference Shareholders in accordance with Rule 9 of the Takeover Code in the event that, as a result of subscribing for Rights Issue Shares being issued pursuant to the Rights Issue and/or under the terms of the Underwriting Agreement, the Concert Party becomes interested in shares carrying, in aggregate, 30 per cent. or more of the voting rights in the Enlarged New Ordinary Share Capital.
The Takeover Panel has agreed to waive any obligation on any member of the Concert Party to make a mandatory offer, subject to the approval of the Independent Ordinary Shareholders on a poll at the General Meeting.
The Capital Reorganisation
Reasons for the Capital Reorganisation
It is proposed that the Rights Issue will be undertaken at 4 pence per Rights Issue Share, which is below the current nominal value of an Ordinary Share. Under the 1985 Act, it is not permissable to issue shares at a discount to their nominal value. Therefore, the Rights Issue is conditional on, amongst other things, the completion of the Capital Reorganisation, for which the approval of Ordinary Shareholders is being sought, which will result in the nominal value of each New Ordinary Share being reduced to 1 penny.
The Closing Price of an Ordinary Share was 14.5 pence on 3 June 2008, being the last practicable date prior to the publication of this announcement. As such, the current market price for an Ordinary Share is below the nominal value of an Ordinary Share of 25 pence. Without the Capital Reorganisation, the Company is effectively prevented from raising any further new equity capital since, in order to comply with the 1985 Act, any further shares would have to be issued at a price at or above nominal value, which is currently at a significant premium to the current market price. In order to enable the Company to undertake the Rights Issue, and to assist the Company with its ongoing and future activities, the nominal value of the existing Ordinary Shares must be reduced from 25 pence per share to an amount below the proposed Issue Price.
Information about the Capital Reorganisation
It is proposed that:
(i) each issued Ordinary Share is subdivided and reclassified into one New Ordinary Share of 1 penny and one Deferred Share of 24 pence; and
(ii) each authorised but unissued Ordinary Share is subdivided into 25 New Ordinary Shares of 1 penny each.
The rights attaching to the New Ordinary Shares will, save for the change in nominal value, be identical in all respects to those of the Ordinary Shares.
No new share certificates will be issued in respect of the New Ordinary Shares and existing share certificates for Ordinary Shares will remain valid for the New Ordinary Shares arising after the subdivision.
The Deferred Shares created on the Capital Reorganisation becoming effective will have no voting or dividend rights and, on a return of capital, will have the right to receive the amount paid up thereon only after the holders of the Preference Shares have received all amounts to which they are entitled in priority to the payment of the holders of any other class of shares in the Company (in accordance with the rights attaching to the Preference Shares as set out in the Articles) and, in addition, the holders of the New Ordinary Shares have received, in aggregate, the amount paid up thereon plus £10,000,000 per New Ordinary Share.
No share certificates will be issued in respect of the Deferred Shares, nor will CREST accounts of Shareholders be credited in respect of any entitlement to Deferred Shares, nor will they be listed on the Official List or admitted to trading on the London Stock Exchange or any other investment exchange. It is the Board's intention, at the appropriate time, to effect a repurchase of the Deferred Shares or to make an application to the High Court for the Deferred Shares to be cancelled.
The effect of the Capital Reorganisation will mean that each New Ordinary Share will have a nominal value of 1 penny and the number of ordinary shares of the Company listed on the Official List and admitted to trading on the London Stock Exchange's main market for listed securities shall remain the same. Consequently, the market price of a New Ordinary Share immediately after completion of the Capital Reorganisation should, theoretically, be the same as the market price of an existing Ordinary Share immediately prior to the Capital Reorganisation.
The Property Disposal
Reasons for the Property Disposal
On 28 March 2008, the Board announced that it was pursuing several options to improve the Company's debt position and the Board has today announced that these options include the disposal of certain properties. Given its size, the Property Disposal constitutes a Class 1 transaction under the Listing Rules and so requires the approval of Ordinary Shareholders at the General Meeting. The Board intends to use approximately EUR30 million of the net cash proceeds from the Property Disposal (after taking into account Wagon's own expenses and any tax liability, estimated to be EUR0.9 million, prepaid rent (and VAT) of EUR0.7 million and a three month security deposit (including VAT) of EUR1.0 million) to reduce the Revised Debt Facilities to approximately EUR125 million. Other than in limited exceptional circumstances (for example, landlord's insolvency or tenant's breach of lease), the Leases to be entered into in connection with the Property Disposal will allow the Disposal Properties to remain available for use by the Wagon Group and therefore the Board does not expect the Property Disposal to affect the Group's operations and trading.
Information about the Property Disposal
The Property Disposal is the proposed sale and leaseback of two freehold property assets located at Waldaschaff and Nagold in Germany and used as part of the Wagon Group's manufacturing operations. Each of the Disposal Properties will be leased back to the current respective freeholders, being indirect German subsidiaries of Wagon, for their continued use under the terms of and subject to the conditions of each Lease.
A valuation of the Disposal Properties has been carried out by Savills and will be included in the Prospectus.
The consideration for the Property Disposal is approximately EUR34.5 million (before expenses). The Leases provide for the payment of rent calculated with reference to an annual yield of 9.25 per cent. applied to the consideration amount (plus capitalised Property Purchaser expenses and transaction costs), increasing or decreasing each year by the annual change in the German consumer price index. The initial aggregate annual rent on the Leases is approximately EUR3.4 million for the first 12 months of occupation, and thereafter will increase or decrease with reference to the German Consumer Price Index.
The aggregate net book value of the Disposal Properties as at 31 March 2008 was approximately £25.7 million and the gross asset value of the Disposal Properties was approximately £43.3 million as at 31 March 2008.
Financial effects of the Property Disposal
At present, the Disposal Properties do not generate any income for the Wagon Group. Following the completion of the Property Disposal, the Directors expect that the rental charges payable under the terms of the Leases will not be significantly different from the interest saved on the reduction in borrowings as a consequence of the receipt of the net proceeds of the Property Disposal and the reduction in depreciation charged on the Disposal Properties. Accordingly, the Directors do not expect the effect of the Property Disposal on Wagon's continuing profit to be material and expect that there will be a broadly neutral effect on continuing earnings per share. The Directors expect that the consideration received will result in a small aggregate exceptional loss for the year ending 31 March 2009 (these statements are not intended to constitute a profit forecast for the financial year ending 31 March 2009 or for any other period).
Principal terms and conditions of the Property Disposal and Leases
It is proposed that the current freeholders, being indirect German subsidiaries of Wagon, will dispose of their existing interests in the Disposal Properties by selling their title in them to the Property Purchaser. The consideration for the Property Disposal is approximately EUR34.5 million (before expenses) and will be payable in cash to Wagon at completion. Completion of the Property Disposal is conditional, amongst other things, on the Revised Debt Facilities completing.
Each of the Disposal Properties will, subject to completion of the relevant transfer, be leased back on identical terms (save as to rent and the provisions for certain capital availability by the Property Purchaser for the expansion of the site at Nagold) to the respective Wagon Group seller. Each Lease will expire on its fifteenth anniversary and has two additional five year term renewal options.
Both Leases will be guaranteed by Wagon for the whole Lease term (including any extension periods) unless the relevant Wagon Group tenant assigns the Lease to a third Party.
In addition, the Cost Reimbursement Provision is conditional on the approval of the Ordinary Shareholders at the General Meeting.
Financial impact of the Rights Issue and the Property Disposal
A pro forma statement of net assets illustrating the effect of the Rights Issue and Property Disposal on the Company's unaudited net assets as at 31 March 2008, as if they had been undertaken at that date, shows that net proceeds from the Rights Issue of approximately £44 million and the net disposal proceeds of approximately £25 million would have led to a positive movement in pro forma net assets of approximately £44 million.
The Rights Issue and the Property Disposal, had they taken place on 31 March 2007, would have had a dilutive effect to the Company's earnings for the year ended 31 March 2008.
The Revised Debt Facilities
The Company announced today that it has entered into Revised Debt Facilities of EUR155 million to refinance the Existing Debt Facilities of EUR166 million which are due to expire on 31 December 2008.
The Revised Debt Facilities, covered below, are required to refinance certain existing indebtedness of the Group and to provide working capital to the Wagon Group going forward.
The Revised Debt Facilities comprise two types of facility:
THE FIRST TYPE OF FACILITIES ARE EUR125 MILLION THREE YEAR MULTICURRENCY CREDIT FACILITIES TO BE USED TO REFINANCE THE EXISTING INDEBTEDNESS OF THE WAGON GROUP AND FOR GENERAL CORPORATE PURPOSES. THE APPLICABLE RATE OF INTEREST IS EURIBOR OR LIBOR (AS APPLICABLE) PLUS 2.50 PER CENT. PER ANNUM AS AT TODAY'S DATE AND IS SUBJECT TO A MARGIN RATCHET PURSUANT TO WHICH THE MARGIN MAY VARY BETWEEN 2.00 PER CENT. AND 4.00 PER CENT. PER ANNUM DEPENDING ON THE CONSOLIDATED EBITDA OF THE WAGON GROUP. THE FINAL MATURITY DATE OF THESE FACILITIES IS 4 JUNE 2011; AND
THE SECOND TYPE OF FACILITY IS A EUR30 MILLION MULTICURRENCY 364 DAY REVOLVING LOAN FACILITY TO BRIDGE THE RECEIPT OF PROCEEDS UNDER THE PROPERTY DISPOSAL. THE APPLICABLE RATE OF INTEREST IS EURIBOR OR LIBOR (AS APPLICABLE) PLUS 2.50 PER CENT. PER ANNUM AS AT TODAY'S DATE AND IS SUBJECT TO (I) A MARGIN RATCHET PURSUANT TO WHICH THE MARGIN MAY VARY BETWEEN 2.00 PER CENT. AND 4.00 PER CENT. PER ANNUM DEPENDING ON THE CONSOLIDATED EBITDA OF THE WAGON GROUP AND (II) AN INCREASE IN THE MARGIN OF 0.50 PER CENT. PER ANNUM IN THE EVENT THAT THE 364 DAY REVOLVING LOAN FACILITY IS NOT CANCELLED ON OR BEFORE 1 OCTOBER 2008. THE FINAL MATURITY DATE FOR THIS FACILITY IS 3 JUNE 2009.
The Revised Debt Facilities are conditional on, amongst other things, receipt of the Rights Issue Proceeds.
Dividend policy
Given the Rights Issue, the Board has decided not to propose a final dividend as Shareholders are being invited to inject new capital into business. Going forward, the Board's intention is to have any future target dividend per New Ordinary Share covered twice by available earnings per New Ordinary Share.
Unaudited preliminary results for financial year 2008, current trading and future prospects
The Company announced today its unaudited preliminary results for the year ended 31 March 2008.
For the year ended 31 March 2008, Wagon reported ongoing turnover of £714.7 million (2007: £658.7 million), underlying operating profit of £26.0 million (2007: £17.2 million), underlying profit before taxation of £12.7 million (2007: £4.2 million) and an underlying earnings per share of 8.0 pence (2007 earnings per share: 2.0 pence). The Group's lifetime revenue of the order intake in the year was £857.0 million as at 31 March 2008 (2007: £462.0 million).
In its unaudited preliminary results announcement, the Company made the following statements in relation to its financing initiatives and current trading and outlook:
Financing initiatives
"Having secured significant contracts during the year, and faced with many new quotation opportunities, the Group has announced today an equity rights issue to raise approximately £44 million after costs. This is fully underwritten by the WLR Funds, represented by Wilbur Ross on Wagon's Board.
The Group has also announced today that it has entered into a EUR125 million senior revolving debt facility with five banks, including existing and new lenders, committed for three years to replace the existing facilities that expire on 31 December 2008. Completion of the facilities is dependent on the successful completion of the Rights Issue. In addition the Group has entered into a 364 day facility of EUR30 million, repayable in the event of successful completion of the proposed sale and lease back of German properties. If the rights issue and the revised debt facilities are not successfully completed then the existing facilities are not adequate to support the going concern assertion adopted in the unaudited preliminary results for the year ended 31 March 2008 due to their expiration at 31 December 2008. The unavailability of the revised debt facilities will require the Company either to seek an extension of the existing debt facilities beyond 31 December 2008 or to seek further sources of financing, both of which the Board has a reasonable expectation that it could obtain but which are likely only to be available on significantly worse terms, and at significantly higher costs, than the revised debt facilities.
The directors understand that had the auditors issued their report at the date of this preliminary announcement it would have been unqualified but would have included an emphasis of matter regarding the uncertainties concerning going concern described above. On the basis that the directors have a reasonable expectation that the uncertainties relating to these proposed re-financing initiatives will be successfully resolved (specifically, their approval by shareholders and there being no material adverse change between now and completion of the rights issue) the unaudited results announced today have been prepared on a going concern basis."
Current Trading and Outlook
"Current sales volumes are in line with the Board's expectations, though we expect them to be impacted in the current year due to OEM schedules, model changeovers and general market conditions, as announced on 28 March 2008. The Board remains alert to the potential for margin pressure from the steel price and general economic uncertainty affecting our markets.
The Board expects that the recent organisational, management process and strategic changes, when combined with the successful completion of the proposed refinancing initiatives, will enable the Group to realise further operational performance improvements, and that the recent strong order intake will provide benefits from 2009/10."
Takeover Code
Under Rule 9 of the Takeover Code, any person who acquires an interest (as defined in the Takeover Code) in shares which, taken together with shares in which he is already interested and in which persons acting in concert with him are interested, carry 30 per cent. or more of the voting rights of a company which is subject to the Takeover Code, is normally required to make a general offer for all the remaining equity capital of the company.
In addition, when any person, together with persons acting in concert with him, is interested in shares which in the aggregate carry not less than 30 per cent. of the voting rights of such a company but does not hold shares carrying more than 50 per cent. of such voting rights, a general offer will normally be required if any further interest in shares, which increases the percentage of shares carrying such voting rights, is acquired by any such person.
An offer under Rule 9 of the Takeover Code must be made in cash, or must be accompanied by a full cash alternative, and must be at the highest price paid by the person required to make the offer or any person acting in concert with him for any interest in shares of that company during the 12 months prior to the announcement of the offer.
WLR Fund IV and WLR Fund IV ESC are not currently interested in any Ordinary Shares but the WLR Wagon Shareholders (with whom WLR Fund IV and WLR Fund IV ESC are presumed to be acting in concert for the purposes of the Takeover Code) are currently interested in, in aggregate, approximately 15.06 per cent. of the existing issued Ordinary Share capital of the Company.
Assuming no Qualifying Shareholders take up their entitlement to Rights Issue Shares, Hoare Govett is unable to procure subscribers for the Rights Issue Shares and, accordingly, the Underwriters are required, pursuant to the terms of the Underwriting Agreement, to subscribe for all of the Rights Issue Shares, on completion of the Rights Issue the Concert Party would be interested in a maximum of 1,236,153,868 New Ordinary Shares in aggregate, representing approximately 92.6 per cent. of the Enlarged New Ordinary Share Capital.
Accordingly, the Concert Party will, if the Underwriters are obliged to take up their underwriting commitment in full, become interested in shares carrying, in aggregate, 30 per cent. or more of the voting rights in the Company's Enlarged New Ordinary Share Capital.
The Takeover Panel has agreed, however, to waive any obligation of any member of the Concert Party to make a mandatory offer that would otherwise arise as a result of the issue of Rights Issue Shares pursuant to the Rights Issue and/or the terms of the Underwriting Agreement, subject to the approval of Independent Ordinary Shareholders on a poll. Accordingly, the resolution to approve the Rule 9 Waiver is being proposed at the General Meeting and will be taken on a poll. The members of the Concert Party will not be entitled to vote on the resolution to approve the Rule 9 Waiver.
Shareholders should be aware that, following completion of the Rights Issue, the Concert Party will potentially hold more than 50 per cent. of the Company's voting share capital. Accordingly, the Concert Party, for so long as the members of the Concert Party continue to be treated as acting in concert, may be able to increase their aggregate percentage interests in New Ordinary Shares without incurring any further obligation under Rule 9 of the Takeover Code to make a mandatory offer. However, individual members of the Concert Party will not be able to increase their percentage holding through or between a Rule 9 threshold without Panel consent.
The intention of the Underwriters is to allow the Company's management to continue pursuing the Company's corporate strategy. The Underwriters have no present intention to move the Company's places of business, redeploy the Company's fixed assets or vary the existing employment contracts of the Company's employees. The Underwriters' commercial justification for underwriting the Rights Issue is the continued development of the Group's business with a view to achieving the Company's strategy.
Irrevocable undertakings
Each of the Directors who is a registered holder and/or a beneficial owner of Ordinary Shares has irrevocably undertaken to Wagon to vote in favour of each of the Resolutions in respect of all the Ordinary Shares of which he is the registered holder and/or the beneficial owner.
In addition, the WLR Wagon Shareholders have also agreed to vote in favour of all of the Resolutions in respect of all the Ordinary Shares of which the WLR Wagon Shareholders are the registered holder and/or the beneficial owner except the resolution to approve the Rule 9 Waiver, on which the WLR Wagon Shareholders are, in accordance with the Takeover Code, ineligible to vote. The WLR Wagon Shareholders are the registered holder, and/or the beneficial owner, of, in aggregate, 17,485,058 Ordinary Shares, representing approximately 15.06 per cent. of the issued Ordinary Share capital as at 3 June 2008 (being the last practicable date before the publication of this announcement).
In respect of the resolution to approve the Rule 9 Waiver, the irrevocable undertakings relate, in aggregate, to 47,151 Ordinary Shares representing approximately 0.05 per cent. of the total number of Ordinary Shares in issue held by Independent Ordinary Shareholders as at 3 June 2008 (being the last practicable date before the publication of this announcement).
Importance of obtaining Ordinary Shareholder approval
Shareholders should note that the Rights Issue cannot proceed without the approval of the Resolutions (other than the resolution relating to the Property Disposal) at the General Meeting. If these Resolutions are not approved at the General Meeting, the Rights Issue will not proceed and, consequently, the Revised Debt Facilities will not become unconditional and will not be available to the Company and its subsidiaries.
The unavailability of the Revised Debt Facilities will require the Company either to seek an extension of the Existing Debt Facilities beyond 31 December 2008 or to seek further sources of financing, both of which the Board has a reasonable expectation that it could obtain but which are likely only to be available on significantly worse terms, and at significantly higher costs, than the Revised Debt Facilities.
The Directors intend to use the net proceeds of the Property Disposal to reduce the Revised Debt Facilities to approximately EUR125 million. However, as the Property Disposal Agreement is conditional on, inter alia, completion of the Revised Debt Facilities, if any of the other Resolutions are not approved at the General Meeting, the Property Disposal will not complete unless the Property Purchaser waives the relevant condition. If the Property Disposal does not complete, the Revised Debt Facilities would remain at approximately EUR155 million until 3 June 2009.
Recommendation to Shareholders
The Board, which has been so advised by Hoare Govett, considers the Rights Issue, the Capital Reorganisation, the Rule 9 Waiver, the Property Disposal and the terms of the Resolutions to be fair and reasonable and in the best interests of Shareholders as a whole. In providing advice to the Board, Hoare Govett has taken into account the Board's commercial assessments. Mr Wilbur Ross has taken no part in the Board's consideration of the resolution to approve the Rule 9 Waiver.
Accordingly, the Board recommends unanimously that Ordinary Shareholders vote in favour of all of the Resolutions, as each of the Directors has irrevocably undertaken to do in respect of his own beneficial holdings of Ordinary Shares, to the extent that he has any such holding, which together amount to Ordinary Shares representing approximately 0.04 per cent. of the Ordinary Shares in respect of the Resolutions (other than the resolution to approve the Rule 9 Waiver) and approximately 0.05 per cent. of the total number of Ordinary Shares held by Independent Ordinary Shareholders in the case of the resolution to approve the Rule 9 Waiver. Each of the Directors intends to take up, to the extent he is able, his rights, if any, to subscribe for Rights Issue Shares under the Rights Issue, or to sell sufficient of his Nil Paid Rights during the Nil Paid Rights Dealing Period to meet the costs of taking up the balance of his entitlement to Rights Issue Shares. Mr Wilbur Ross holds no Ordinary Shares beneficially.
Publication of shareholders' circular and prospectus
A shareholders' circular and prospectus containing a notice convening the General Meeting and providing details of the Rights Issue, Property Disposal, Capital Reorganisation, Rule 9 Waiver, delisting of the New Ordinary Shares from the Official List and application for admission to trading on AIM (if Listing Rule 6.1.19R is breached), and the Revised Debt Facilities is expected to be published and sent to shareholders shortly.
For further information:
Wagon plc 0121 770 4030
Jrgen von Heyden, Chief Executive Richard Cotton, Finance Director
Hoare Govett Limited (Financial adviser, sponsor and broker) 020 7678 8000 Ranald McGregor-Smith (Corporate Broking) Luke Simpson (Corporate Broking) Justin Jones (Financial Advisory)
Hogarth Partnership 020 7357 9477
James Longfield Anthony Arthur
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS
The statements contained in this announcement that are not historical facts may be "forward-looking'' statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Wagon's control and all of which are based on Wagon's current beliefs and expectations about future events. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "believes'', "expects'', "may'', "will'', "could'', "should'', "intends'', "estimates'', "plans'', "assumes'' or "anticipates'' or the negative thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology, or by discussions of strategy that involve risks and uncertainties. In addition, from time to time, Wagon or its representatives have made or may make forward-looking statements orally or in writing. Furthermore, such forward-looking statements may be included in, but are not limited to, press releases or oral statements made by or with the approval of an authorised executive officer of Wagon. These forward-looking statements and other statements contained in this announcement regarding matters that are not historical facts involve predictions. No assurance can be given that such future results will be achieved; actual events or results may differ materially as a result of risks and uncertainties facing Wagon and its subsidiaries. Such risks and uncertainties could cause actual results to vary materially from the future results indicated, expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements contained in this announcement speak only as of the date of this announcement and neither Wagon nor the Sponsor undertakes no duty to, and will not necessarily, update any of them in light of new information or future events, except to the extent required by applicable law, the Prospectus Rules, the Listing Rules and the Disclosure Rules and Transparency Rules.
Without limitation, the contents of the websites of the Group do not form part of this announcement.
DEFINED TERMS
"1985 Act" the Companies Act 1985, as amended;
"Admission" the admission of the Rights Issue Shares, nil paid and fully
paid, to (i) the Official List becoming effective and (ii)
trading on the main market for listed securities of the London
Stock Exchange becoming effective, and references to "Admission
becoming effective" means becoming effective in accordance with
LR 3.2.7G of the Listing Rules and paragraph 2.1 of the
Admission and Disclosure Standards published by the London Stock
Exchange;
"AIM" the AIM market operated by the London Stock Exchange;
"Allen & Overy" Allen & Overy LLP;
"Articles" the articles of association of the Company in force at the date
of this announcement;
"Board" the board of Directors of the Company;
"Capital Reorganisation" the proposed reorganisation of the Ordinary Shares into New
Ordinary Shares and Deferred Shares, as more particularly
described in this announcement;
"Closing Price" the closing middle market quotation of an Ordinary Share, or a
New Ordinary Share (as appropriate), as derived from the Daily
Official List;
"Concert Party" the WLR Funds and any person with whom they are acting in
concert, and "members of the Concert Party" means the entities
comprising the Concert Party;
"CREST" the relevant system (as defined in the CREST Regulations)
inrespect of which Euroclear UK & Ireland Limited is the
Operator (as defined in the CREST Regulations);
"Deferred Shares" non-voting deferred shares of 24 pence each in the capital of
the Company created as a result of the Capital Reorganisation;
"Directors" the directors of the Company at the date of this announcement,
and "Director" means any one of them;
"Disclosure Rules and the Disclosure Rules and Transparency Rules of the UK Listing
Transparency Rules" Authority;
"Disposal Properties" Wagon's properties at Postfach 5, Fabrikstrasse 6, D-63857
Waldaschaff and Lise-Meitner Strasse 10, D-72202 Nagold, and
"Disposal Property" means either one of them;
"EBITDA" earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and
amortisation;
"Enlarged New Ordinary Share the New Ordinary Share Capital of the Company
Capital" following the allotment and issue of the Rights
Issue Shares, assuming (unless otherwise stated)
that (i) none of the Wagon Options in existence as
at 3 June 2008 (being the last practicable date
prior to the publication of this announcement) have
been exercised, (ii) none of the Preference Shares
in issue as at 3 June 2008 (being the last
practicable date prior to the publication of this
announcement) have been converted into Ordinary
Shares or, after the Capital Reorganisation, New
Ordinary Shares, and (iii) none of the Warrants in
issue as at 3 June 2008 (being the last practicable
date prior to the publication of this announcement)
have been exercised;
"Euroclear" Euroclear UK & Ireland Limited;
"European Economic Area" the European Union, Iceland, Norway and
Liechtenstein;
"Existing Debt Facilities" or the Company's existing facilities of EUR166
"Existing Debt Facility" million;
"FSA" the Financial Services Authority;
"Fully Paid Rights" fully paid rights to subscribe for Rights Issue
Shares pursuant to the Rights Issue;
"General Meeting" or "GM" the general meeting of the Company to be convened
by a notice to be published in the Prospectus;
"Group" or "Wagon Group" the Company and its subsidiary undertakings;
"Hoare Govett" Hoare Govett Limited;
"Independent Board" the Board excluding Wilbur Ross Jr.;
"Issue Price" 4 pence per Rights Issue Share;
"Leases" the leases of the Disposal Properties to be entered
into by Wagon with the Property Purchaser in
connection with the Property Disposal, and "Lease"
means any one of them;
"LIBOR" London Inter Bank Offer Rate;
"Listing Rules" the Listing Rules of the UK Listing Authority;
"London Stock Exchange" London Stock Exchange plc;
"New Ordinary Share Capital" the issued New Ordinary Shares (following the
Capital
Reorganisation);
"New Ordinary Shares" the new ordinary shares of one penny each in
the capital of the Company following
sub-division of the Ordinary Shares as a
result of the Capital Reorganisation, and "New
Ordinary Share" means one of them;
"Nil Paid Rights" Rights Issue Shares in nil paid form
provisionally allotted to Qualifying
Shareholders pursuant to the Rights Issue;
"Official List" the Official List of the UK Listing Authority;
"Ordinary Shareholders" the holders of Ordinary Shares and, following
the Capital Reorganisation, the holders of New
Ordinary Shares and Deferred Shares, and
"Ordinary Shareholder" means any one of them;
"Ordinary Shares" the existing ordinary shares of 25 pence each
in the capital of the Company, and "Ordinary
Share" means one of them;
"Overseas Shareholders" Qualifying Shareholders with registered
addresses outside the UK or who are citizens
or residents of countries outside the UK, and
"Overseas Shareholder" means any one of them;
"Oxford" Oxford Automotive SpA;
"Preference Shareholders" the holders of Preference Shares, and
"Preference Shareholder" means any one of
them;
"Preference Shares" the 7.25 pence convertible participating
preference shares of 10 pence each in the
capital of the Company, and "Preference Share"
means one of them;
"Property Disposal" the conditional disposal by Wagon of the
Disposal Properties, including the Cost
Reimbursement Provision;
"Property Disposal Agreement" the conditional agreement dated 4 June 2008
between, inter alia, Wagon and the Property
Purchaser relating to the Property Disposal;
"Property Purchaser" WGN (Ger) LLC, a special purpose vehicle,
which is a wholly owned subsidiary of
Corporate Property Associates 15-Global, Inc.,
a publicly registered US-based real estate
investment trust and of Corporate Property
Associates 17 Pan-European Holdings Cooratief
U.A., a new fund both being controlled by W.P.
Carey LL.C.;
"Proposals" the Rights Issue, the Rule 9 Waiver, the
Capital Reorganisation, the Property Disposal,
the delisting of the New Ordinary Shares from
the Official
4 juni LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Wagon Plc. said it has proposed a 10-for-1 rights issue at 4 pence per share to raise about 49 million pounds and posted a higher full-year underlying pretax profit as revenues rose, benefiting from higher-than-expected volumes.
However, the company said it expects the current sales volumes, which are in line with its expectations, to be hit in the current year due to OEM schedules, model changeovers and general market conditions.
For the year to end-March, 2008, Wagon said its pretax profit excluding non-recurring items rose to 12.7 million pounds from 4.2 million last year as total continuing revenues increased to 714.7 million pounds from 710.0 million earlier.
The net proceeds of the rights issue, which has been underwritten in full by funds managed by WL Ross, a major shareholder in Wagon, will be used in part to provide capital expenditure funding to support the company's recent contract successes and to partly prepay the existing debt facilities, it said.
The company added it has decided not to propose a final dividend given the rights issue.
The European automotive components group also said it has entered into a revised debt facilities of 155 million euros to replace the existing debt facilities of 166 million euros, which are due to expire on Dec. 31.
The group expects the revised structure of its debt position to result in a reduction in interest costs of about 2 million pounds in the year ending March 31, 2009.
The company said it also plans to sell and leaseback two freehold German properties to raise about 34.5 million euros, before expenses. It will use the net proceeds of the disposal to reduce the revised debt facilities to around 125 million euros.
Wagon does not expect the effect of the sale of properties on its continuing profit to be material and anticipates a broadly neutral effect on continuing earnings per share. It also expects that the amount received will result in a "small aggregate exceptional loss" for the year to end-March 2009.
The company will continue to seek out opportunities for growth, both organic and by acquisition, it added.
"The board expects that the recent organisational, management process and strategic changes, when combined with the successful completion of the proposed refinancing initiatives, will enable the group to realise further operational performance improvements, and that the recent strong order intake will provide benefits from 2009/10," Chief Executive Jurgen von Heyden said.
At 15:59, shares were down nearly 26 percent at 11.15 pence.
tf.TFN-Europe_newsdesk@thomson.com tsm/tsm/jfr
da jeg læste deres seneste regnskab sagde de at det gik bedre, men at de havde haft nogle problemer med forsinket salg mm
de nævnte også den right issue, hvor jeg skrev dengang at det lød mærkeligt at det var noget med 10 aktier for hver 1 i stedet for de sædvanlige 1 for hver 10
men jeg har ikke rigtigt fulgt op på den, da jeg indtil videre ikke vil købe den
men alligevel, den er fristende med et par tusinde kroner
selvom væksraterne i bilsalget i kina ser ud til at falde, så er en vækst på 13% i juni stadig fint og lastbilerne stiger sikkert stadig mere end personbilerne, så vi lander på 15-16% for biler ialt, lastbilerne er ikke kommet med data endnu, men en stigning på ca 15%, det kan man vel dårligt kalde negativt
BEIJING — Passenger-car sales in China rose 14.2 percent in the first half, lower than an earlier expectation of 20 percent, as more stringent macroeconomic control policies and record high oil prices curbed purchases.
Domestic carmakers sold a combined 3.3 million passenger vehicles, including sedans, multipurpose vehicles, sport-utility vehicles and minibuses, from January through June, according to the China Passenger Car Association. Production rose 16.9 percent to 3.6 million vehicles during the same period.
Though sales in June grew 13 percent to 517,469 units, it was the third consecutive month that sales growth has begun to flatten out, triggering concerns about a slowdown in the overall market for this year.
Industry officials blamed the reversal on floods in south China, which meant some carmakers stopped production and suspended vehicle shipments. In addition, China raised the prices of gasoline and diesel by 17 percent at the end of June. Expecting further price increases, many auto buyers postponed their purchase plans. Some analysts also believe that China's bearish stock market, which has plunged 50 percent since the beginning of this year, was also part of the reason behind the weak market demand.
Half-year sales of sedans rose 13 percent to 2.39 million units while SUVs, including crossovers, posted a 41.7 percent sales jump to 211,885 units. Sales of MPVs climbed 2.4 percent to 106,297 units.
Shanghai VW was first among China's top-selling carmakers in June, with retail sales of 40,124 units. Next came FAW-VW and Shanghai GM, which sold 38,908 and 35,189 vehicles, respectively.
Like a number of its competitors, General Motors posted slower sales growth in China for the first half of this year, a victim of weaker market demand and keen competition.
While the total industry rose more than 14 percent in the first six months, GM boosted its half-year sales in China by 12.7 percent to a record 590,126 vehicles. That compares with a growth rate of 19 percent last year.
GM cited the strength of its Chevrolet brand in China. Sales of Chevrolet vehicles, including the popular Lova compact sedan and the new Epica midsize sedan, jumped 34.6 percent in the first half to 109,131 units. Both models are made by Shanghai GM, a joint venture with Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation.
Shanghai GM's flagship Buick brand said its first-half sales reached 146,321 units, including 90,604 Buick Excelles; GM launched a revamped version earlier this year. Sales of the Cadillac luxury brand hit 3,285 units in the first half of the year.
What this means to you: GM sold twice as many Buicks in China in the first half as it did in the United States — not a good sign for the brand's long-term survival in its home market. — Vivian Jin, Correspondent
bilsalget i venezuela faldt 27% i 1h, men det kan ikke bruges til ret meget fordi bilsalget steg fra 50.000 i 2002 til næsten 500.000 i 2007 og derefter har den socialistiske hugo bremset importen så man slet ikke kan købe de eftertragtede importerede biler
Venezuela car sales fall as growth slows
Tuesday July 8, 9:13 am ET
By Jorge Rueda, Associated Press Writer
Venezuelan new car sales fall 27 percent through June as economic growth stalls
CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- Sales of new cars in Venezuela fell 27.4 percent in the first half of the year, reversing a recent upward trend as economic growth slowed and President Hugo Chavez capped foreign car imports in a bid to boost domestic production.
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Total vehicle sales dropped to 154,576 in the first six months from 213,056 in the same period of 2007, the Venezuelan Automobile Chamber said Monday. Sales of domestically assembled cars fell by 1.2 percent in the same period over last year.
Venezuela's Trade Ministry has issued permits to import 219,000 vehicles this year, including motorcycles. Still, just 82,000 of the vehicles sold between January and June were imported, while 72,000 were assembled at local plants owned by Toyota, Ford, General Motors and others.
Car sales will likely fall by 20 percent this year, the automobile chamber said, cooling what has in recent years been a booming industry as oil income, government spending and available loans flooded Venezuela's economy with cash.
More than 491,000 cars were sold in the country last year, 43 percent more than in 2006. Demand has been so high that Venezuelans routinely queued on lists waiting up to eight months for a new car. They often preferred imports, which are generally cheaper than domestically assembled cars.
Government officials sought to reverse that preference, limiting imports for the first time this year to increase demand for locally produced cars and create jobs. Venezuelan assembly lines produced at just 50 percent of capacity last year, when sales of domestically assembled cars fell by 1.2 percent, according to government officials.
But the country's boom times are waning, with annual growth slowing to 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2008, a four-year low, even as inflation neared 30 percent.
Toyota, Ford and General Motors could feel the effect: all have assembly plants in Venezuela, where the government in 2006 also formed a joint venture with Iran to start producing small sedans last year.
Since taking office in 1999, Chavez has launched a broad series of farm reforms and state-funded cooperatives aimed at boosting domestic production. But the oil-exporting country still imports most of the goods it consumes, particularly medicine and food.
wagon er nede i 3½, jeg tør ikke købe den
men er lidt forundret over at den kan falde så meget
måske jeg køber for 2000 kroner
og satser på at den enten går konkurs eller stiger til 350
humle kan du huske TWI, da vi ikke rigtigt vidste om vi turde købe på ½ dollar, nu er den i 35 dollar
pippen synes det er et gevaldigt bullmarked vi har fået
hun kan slet ikke forstå at folk er så negative på markedet
lille pip siger noget om at det vidst faldt i sidste uge
men pippen var på ferie, så det bemærkede hun slet ikke
Airline stocks rally on falling energy prices
Benchmark oil prices show biggest daily loss in four months
flyaktier er ikke uinteressante fordi det stadig boomer i det meste af verden
så er der også et bom i efterspørgslen efter at flyve og flyselskaberne kan bare sætte biletpriserne op
det gældet bl.a. de kinesiske flyselskaber, der er faldet meget, og også SAS, men spørgsmålet er hvordan med de amerikanske flyselskaber, der jo også kæmper med en recession i usa, der gør det meget mere vanskeligere at sætte billetpriserne op når antallet af passagerer falder elelr stagnerer
A steep drop in oil prices and the prospect of relief from punishing fuel costs gave a huge boost to airline stocks Tuesday.
The Amex Airline Index (XAL:amex airline index xal
News, chart, profile, more
Last: 15.98+1.61+11.20%
5:17pm 07/08/2008
XAL 15.98, +1.61, +11.2%) surged 11% to close at 15.98 points, with all 14 of its component stocks trading higher. The index has rebounded 10% from the all-time low of 14.06 hit last week.
As fuel prices have come to dominate carrier operating costs, stocks have been trading relative to oil prices and their perceived risk. Last week, crude prices surged to a record high of $148.85 a barrel.
For Tuesday, crude oil for August delivery fell $5.33 to $136.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange and its biggest daily loss since March 19. Crude has tumbled $9.25 over the past two sessions. See Future Movers.
Northwest Airls Corp
Percent Change:31.05%
Volume:14,755,938
NWA news from MarketWatch
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Airline shares get a lift as oil prices...
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Airlines end mixed despite retreating...
Late flights among U.S. airlines remain...
Among network carriers, shares of Northwest Airlines (NWA:northwest airls corp com
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Last: 7.47+1.77+31.05%
4:01pm 07/08/2008
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NWA 7.47, +1.77, +31.1%) led percentage gainers, up a whopping 31% to close at $7.47. Delta Air Lines (DAL:delta air lines inc del com new
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4:01pm 07/08/2008
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DAL 5.84, +0.96, +19.7%) rose 20% to $5.84, Continental (CAL:Continental Airlines Inc
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4:02pm 07/08/2008
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CAL 10.24, +1.38, +15.6%) jumped nearly 16% to $10.24 and United parent UAL Corp. (UAUA:ual corp com new
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Last: 4.75+0.56+13.37%
UAUA 4.75, +0.56, +13.4%) climbed 13% to end at $4.75.
Video: Airlines React to Higher Fuel Prices
Airlines are beginning to provide greater details on their plans to cut flights and jobs in order to offset higher jet fuel prices. But some analysts say what airlines really need to do is raise revenue.Responding to record-high jet fuel prices, airlines have said they would mothball older planes and cut jobs beginning this fall when the peak summer-travel season comes to an end.
But late Monday, United Airlines said it would dismiss about 150 employees from Denver International Airport beginning this week.
In a June 17 letter to the state of Colorado, United said it would dismiss 50 customer service representatives and 100 workers classified as "ramp servicemen." The Chicago-based carrier is expected to remove about 12% of its weekly domestic capacity from Denver in the fourth quarter compared to a year ago, according to data from Credit Suisse.
Meanwhile, rival Frontier Airlines (FRNTQ:frontier airlines holdings i com
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3:59pm 07/08/2008
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FRNTQ 0.25, -0.02, -7.4%) said it would layoff 456 Denver employees beginning Sept. 1. See full story.
United is the No. 1 carrier at Denver's airport while Frontier is No. 2.
Discount airline AirTran Airways said it will cut 480 jobs, or more than 5% of its workforce, as it reduces its number of flights because of high fuel prices, according to various media reports.
AirTran, a unit of Orlando, Fla.-based AirTran Holdings (AAI:airtran hldgs inc com
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4:03pm 07/08/2008
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AAI 2.19, +0.31, +16.5%) , said that 180 pilots and 300 flight attendants will be affected by the cuts, which are expected to take effect by early September.
Delta Air Lines said it would leave Lansing, Mich., dismissing 26 jobs and three flights to Cincinnati, the Associated Press reported.
Earnings warning +90% Y/Y in our ball park: Cosco warned
that 1H08 earnings may reach Rmb13.4 billion in its preliminary
review, which would be almost double the earnings for the same
period last year. There is no consensus 1H08 estimate. But
judging by the 27% Y/Y growth in the consensus FY08 estimate,
this earnings warning should bring substantial earnings revisions
as 2H08 could be stronger than 1H08 except in the tail end where
surplus capacity may put an end to the freight rate bull run, in our
view. We estimate 72% Y/Y growth for Cosco’s FY08 earnings,
which may be revised when we see the updated capacity and
secured freight rate for the remainder of the year in the interim
results announcement.
• Lower Dec-08 PT: We lower our Dec-08 price target to HK$22
(from HK$27) as we move onto valuing Cosco by resale-valuebased
NAV to be in line with our cautious 2009 outlook on the
dry bulk shipping sector. The fluctuation of resale value as a result
of the change in the freight rate outlook, particularly those
concerning 2009 onward, is the key risk to our PT and call.
• Earnings revision, BDI volatility and asset injection are
potential catalysts: A BDI rally between 3Q and 4Q, in our view,
as well as the potential for further earnings revisions, according to
the disclosures in the interim results, should provide near-term
catalysts for the stock.
Paccar to boost production at Dutch DAF unit
Tuesday July 8, 3:28 pm ET
Paccar to increase production at Nertherlands-based DAF division in September
BELLEVUE, Wash. (AP) -- Heavy truck maker Paccar Inc. said Tuesday that it will increase production at its Netherlands-based DAF Trucks division by 5 percent in September to accommodate strong customer demand.
Paccar said it expects European truck markets to set new registration records this year. Furthermore, Paccar's new parts distribution center in Hungary has begun service to dealers and customers in Central Europe, the company said.
Paccar shares rose $1.33, or 3.2 percent, to $42.60 in afternoon trading
nu har vi det igen
usa stiger voldsomt selvom europa er faldet voldsomt fordi europa var bange for at usa skulle falde voldsomt
vi er altså nødt til at besøge de børser for at undersøge om der er noget galt med kvaliteten i europa
usa står foran et stort opsving fordi man har evnet at sætte renten ned, medens europa kun har evnet at fortsætte med at sætte renten op
så usa er stadig de klogeste
og barack obama er god nok, men han er nok ikke så god til at styre økonomien, han vil jo sætte skatterne op
og det er en dårlig ide
men han er mere charmerende end mccain, og det betyder meget hos vælgerne
men dem kan man heller ikke regne med
og det er synd for helle at hun ikke var charmerende nok til at slå anders fogh og villy for slet ikke at tale om den altid charmerende pia
du må snakke med hanne om det er din telefon, der er blevet rusten
de lever jo heller ikke evigt
og slet ikke hvis man taler uafbrudt sådan som papegøjen gør det
hun slider sin telefon op hver 6'te måned
og nu vil hun have 7G, 3G er slet ikke nok
og lille pip har fået en lille minitelefon, hun taler ikke i ministørrelsen, men hun har også fået uG
selvom det er data, der er et par måneder gamle, så er det jo tydeligt at det også stadig boomer i pakistan også selvom det jo er en ret lille økonomi, men væksten er ikke til at tage fejl af
så alle de negative kommentarer omkring mordet på bhutto har været helt forfejlet uanset at det var en menneskelig tragedie at hun blev myrdet
det viser at man ikke skal drage forhastede konklusioner om de økonomiske virkninger af politiske begivenheder
politik er jo egentlig kun underholdning i den daglige TV avis, medens politikere og politiske såkaldte beslutninger stort set ingen betydning har - de snakker bare uden at sige noget
PAKISTAN
External Trade (Apr). Exports rose by 23.3%yoy in April up from 16.8% growth in March. This was somewhat better than
our forecast of 20.0% growth. Meanwhile, imports grew strongly by 64.7% in April, again somewhat higher than our forecast of 60.0%. As a result trade deficit remained steady at USD1.7bn in April. During the first four months of 2008, the import bill was by USD13.4bn, while export revenues were by USD6.9bn. Thus despite a relatively strong performance of
the export sector, the trade deficit has widened to USD6.5bn. While the spike in oil prices played a key role in the surge in
imports, non-oil and non-food imports have grown sharply as well, running at 42%yoy during the same period. This
Global Markets Research Macro
26 May 2008 Strategy Asia Equities Daily Focus
Page 20 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
underscores that domestic demand conditions have remained buoyant and the adjustment to rising commodity prices has
not yet taken place.
Monetary Policy (Intra-meeting). The State Bank of Pakistan implemented a series of tightening measures overnight to
combat soaring inflation, widening current account and fiscal deficits, as well as incipient pressure on the exchange rate and reserves. Among other measures, they raised the discount rate 150bps and raised reserve requirements by 100bps. Please see our Asia Economics Special, "Intra-meeting monetary policy tightening in Pakistan," by Taimur Baig, for a detailed analysis of the measures and their likely impact.
TAIWAN
utroligt - nu er usa i plus selvom europa gik helt i panik især i starten af dagen
og det selvom det er usa, der har 'problemerne'
de lærer det aldrig, havde de sat renten hurtigt ned
i 1973/74 og igen i 1979-82
havde vi aldrig fået de store recessioner omkring oliekriserne
inflationen falder jo til ro igen
og inflationen stiger i recessionsperioder fordi kapacitetsudnyttelsen falder, så skal man sætte priserne op for at dække de faste omkostninger
så højere vækst skaber lavere inflation, medens lavere vækst skaber endnu højere inflation
heldigvis har usa lært det og japan er næsten ligeså god, de er så glade for at de ikke har deflation
det er ikke olieprisen per se, der bremser væksten, men udelukkende rentestigninger og kreditstramning
jeg tror vi skal invitere hanne på en tur ned for at besøge trichet
så hun med egne øjne kan se hvor dum han er
han er både rusten og lever ikke længe
og så synes jeg vi skal besøge den franske præsident, eller nærmere hans kone, hun er da yndig, hende kunne vi da godt more os med en aften eller to uden at komme til at tænke på at det hele ruster
men ellers er det hele ikke så enkelt
for inflation kan jo være selvforstærkende, men det er det ikke nu i de rige lande
men kunne godt gå hen og blive det i en del af de fattige lande, men det tror jeg nu ikke rigtigt på for de fleste fattiges landes vedkommende
der er faktisk meget styr over den fundamentale inflation i det meste af verden og inflationen i usa, europa og japan er ikke noget problem
bare man ikke laver ulykker eller kommer ud i en for voldsom konflikt med iran
pippen kan ikke forstå alle de problemer, hendes fuglebur af ægte guld er steget så meget i værdi at hun er taget ud i byen for at sælge det
og så regner hun med at hun kan sove i min seng i nat
jeg har hørt at de nu eksporterer soft ice i stedet for den traditionelle eskimo is med chokoladeovertræk
Singapore banks are in a sweet spot; we remain Overweight on the sector The evidence points to the Singapore banks being in a sweet spot of the cycle.
Net interest margins (NIMs) in Singapore look set to rise over the next few years. Loan growth continues to hit new highs. We continue to believe that it is too early
to be concerned about asset quality. The Singapore banks are a great defensive
investment in these uncertain times, and we reiterate our Overweight rating on the sector. Our top picks remain DBS and OCBC.
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
Industry Analysis
Top picks
DBS Group Holdings Ltd (DBSM.SI),SGD18.86 Buy
OCBC (OCBC.SI),SGD8.17 Buy
United Overseas Bank (UOBH.SI),SGD18.62Buy
Companies featured
DBS Group Holdings Ltd (DBSM.SI),SGD18.86 Buy
2007A 2008E2009E
P/E (x) 14.6 10.7 9.5
Div yield (%) 3.2 4.6 4.8
Price/book (x) 1.6 1.3 1.2
OCBC (OCBC.SI),SGD8.17 Buy
2007A 2008E2009E
P/E (x) 13.4 11.311.2
Div yield (%) 3.2 3.7 4.3
Price/book (x) 1.7 1.5 1.4
United Overseas Bank (UOBH.SI),SGD18.62Buy
2007A 2008E2009E
P/E (x) 15.6 13.111.5
Div yield (%) 4.1 3.9 4.4
Price/book (x) 1.8 1.7 1.6
S'pore banks target prices & upside Company Target price Upside
DBS S$25.60 36%
OCBC S$11.00 35%
UOB S$23.50 26%
Related recent research Date
DBS: Worried about inflation? Buy DBS
Michael Chang 17 Jun. 2008
Singapore banks: Entering uncertain times - Deserving
a premium for low-risk
Michael Chang 13 Jun. 2008
Singapore banks: Timing that sweet spot
Michael Chang 02 Jun. 2008
OCBC: Watch for an earnings upswing and capital
benefits
Michael Chang 27 May 2008
DBU loan growth accelerates; ACU loan growth decelerates
Domestic Banking Unit (DBU) loan growth continues to defy expectations of a slowdown and has even accelerated to new highs, up 26% in May-08 YoY
(compared with 24% YoY in Apr-08). Asian Currency Unit (ACU) loan growth looks
like it has peaked, and is currently at 35% YoY as of May-08 (vs. 41% YoY in Apr-
08). As DBU loans comprise 69-94% of the banks’ loan books in Singapore, we
are very confident that 2008 will be at least the second strongest year for loan
growth at Singapore banks since the Asian crisis. Business lending growth (up 38% YoY) continues to be the driver of DBU loan growth. Growth is sufficiently diversified across industries, with >20% YoY growth common. Consumer loan growth remains solid and is up 13% YoY. The fixed deposit/ total deposits ratio
continues to fall (45% as of May-08), while the loan-to-deposit ratio continues to rise (77% as of May-08). Both these trends are favourable to NIMs.
SME loan growth is on a sharp upward trajectory While large corporate loans still continue to drive loan growth in Singapore (up 41% YoY as of May-08), it is also increasingly clear that SME loan growth is
mirroring the sharp upward acceleration of large corporate loan growth, as it is up 27% YoY. Our analysis also indicates that SME loan growth may even have been
stronger, if not for the strong large corporate loan growth creating a ‘crowding
out’ effect on the supply of funds available for SME loans. Corporate loan spreads are definitely rising in Singapore
Large corporate loan spreads are definitely rising in Singapore, with the rise
seemingly greatest for SGD loans. In addition, our analysis indicates that s35 limits may be one reason why corporate loan spreads are rising faster in the building and construction industry. We believe this would benefit OCBC the most out of its peer group.
DBS and OCBC are our top picks - 36% and 35% respective potential upside
The Singapore banks are valued at an (ROE-g)/ (COE-g) basis. Our sustainable ROE
assumptions are 12.9% for DBS, 13.0% for UOB, and 13.4% for OCBC. Our COE
assumptions are 7.3% for DBS, 6.7% for UOB, and 6.6% for OCBC. Our long term
growth (g) assumptions are 0.8% for all three banks. Key risks are investment
market volatility and continued negative news flow on global banks, which could
adversely impact the share prices of Singapore banks (see pa
jeg vil foreslå hanne og humle, at vi samme lejer en hundeslæde oppe på nordpolen
så vi med egne øjne kan se at isen smelter
men jeg ved ikke rigtigt om vi kan ligge i et telt sammen, for to telte, et for kvinder og et for mænd vil nok belaste hundende for meget, men hanne vil måske hellere sove sammen med en rigtig isbjørn, den er jo så sød - på afstand
i tibet bygger de jo jernbaner med et fundament bestående af permafrost, så man skal nok ikke rejse med tog i tibet, når isen smelter, men det må vi også hellere tage ud og kigge på
i stedet for bare at høre politikerne og de kloge snakke om det i fjernsynet
og jeg tager med kronprinsen til afghanistan for at se at det er en håbløs krig, så håber jeg at det ikke er mig der bliver skudt, når det danske militær ikke kan forsvare os, fordi det er sandet til
og så vil jeg også gerne en tur til iraq sammen med obama, for med egne øjne
at se hvor meget det nu boomer i iraq, fordi de tjener så meget på olien at væksten fjerner alle genvordigheder
min tese har altid været at vejen til fremskridt for de enkelte mennesker er så høj vækst som muligt, uanset hvor meget det sviner
iraq er jo snart et rigt samfund, der har råd til at gøre rent i gaderne
så kan humle sælge et par filtreringsanlæg til fjernelse af gade snavs
kinesiske aktier noteret i hong kong er en fantastisk chance lige nu
allerede i 2001-2002 startede jeg med at samle informationer fra diverse sider om den slags aktier og har en database på min computer med regnskaber for langt mere end 1000 aktier, som jeg følger og kender rimeligt godt
jeg bruger primært HK stock exchange, der har en glimrende søgefunktion på enkeltaktier eller en mulighed for at få financial statements fra forskellige virksomheder i kronologisk rækkefølge, men har fundet en nyhedsside, der hedder www.finet.com og så har jeg længe haft en der hedder www.infocastFN.com
og når man først har lært strukturen at kende omkring regnskaberne fra kinesiske virksomheder i hong kong er det egentligt meget fint, fordi der altid i pdf filerne er regnskabstal, data for markedsegmenter geografisk og produktgrupper, hvor det geografiske er meget vigtigt, fordi der er mange virksomheder der eksporterer det meste til usa, eu, resten af verden og andre, der bygger væksten op baseret på salg i kina og hvor kina dominerer salget og lige nu focuserer jeg selvfølgelig på dem, der ekspanderer i kina og resten af asien
og så er der en management discussion, der fortæller om de vigtigste udviklingstendenser incl udviklingen i virksomhedens markeder, så
det største problem er at de ofte fylder op mod 100 sider og at det vigtige drukner i en masse ligegyldigheder omkring forskellige bogføringsmæssige forhold mm, men dem lærer man at springe over
men det korte og det lange, jeg ville siger er, at
da jeg startede i 2001-02 med at studere aktierne i hong kong/kina, så forudså jeg jo opsvinget og boomet i den globale økonomi og bullmarkedet i 2003 og mange år derefter
så jeg koncentrerede mig om amerikanske aktier især i 2003, men også i 04-06/07 efter at have forudset et midlertidigt bearmarked i januar 2004 til oktober 2994 og et bullmarked fra oktober 2004 igen, for når det går godt i usa er amerikanske aktier meget bedre også fordi der er så meget research og spekulation i kortsigtede bevægelser, så man bedre kan finde 'raketter', der kan stige 100% på en eller få dage i usa, det kan man som regel ikke i HK
så det er først nu, hvor usa aktierne så tydeligt er inde i en meget negativ cyklus og konjunkturen i usa heller ikke har de store udsigter til at blive spændende
at de kinesiske aktier i hong kong/singapore/asien er blevet interessante igen
for der har været en ekstrem vending i aktierne i kina, først et voldsomt bullmarked i 2007, der sluttede brat i et voldsomt krak og nu er disse aktier blevet ekstremt billige samtidig med at væksten i kina/asien fortsætter uændret og uden at blive påvirket af problemerne i usa, som markedet åbenbart tror, men
markedet tager også fejl og der er det vigtigt at kunne bedømme den slags, for når markedet tager fejl, så plejer jeg at kunne tjene flere 100% i en relativt kort periode derefter og det kan man nu i de kinesiske aktier i hong kong og asien
så nu er det guld værd at have opbygget så stor en detailleret viden om de kinesiske aktier i hong kong og singapore mm
der er jo også noteret en del kinesiske aktier i usa og de er også faldet stort set alle sammen og der kan den kortsigtede dynamik i det amerikanske aktiemarked godt føre til at den slags aktier pludseligt stiger voldsomt
udviklingsfaserne i den økonomiske vækst er den samme i alle lande, det sker bare på forskellige tider
jeg er vokset op i efterkrigens tyskland, så jeg kender alt til, hvordan et wirtschaftswunder ser ud i den første fase
og tyskland var jo i en omend endnu værre forfatning efter 2 verdenskrig end kina var for 10 år siden
det samme så jeg i italien, hvor vi rejste hvert år 1 måneds tid forskellige steder fra ca 1958 til begyndelsen af halvfjerserne og jeg fik skam også dysenteri i napoli fordi jeg drak vand fra vandhanen og var meget syg i flere uger, heldigvis var der en dansk læge på campingpladsen i fano, hvor vi kom til og det viser da at læger i danmark også kan bruges til noget engang imellem - iøvrigt var min mor lige ved at dø af tuberkulose fordi hun blev smittet dengang i tyskland lige efter jeg var blevet født, så jo jeg ved godt hvad det betyder at et land i vækst kan være beskidt
de var også fattige i italien og havde en kollosal vækst, hvor små fiatter sammen med en masse vespaer fyldte vejene og så var der skam også mange alfa romeoer og lanciaer
boligerne så meget usle ud, men de elskede at bruge hornet, der var meget mere musikalsk end bare et dyt båt dyt, det var næsten som at være til opera af verdi i caracallas i rom, hvor vi også har været
sådan er udviklingsforløbet og når velstanden kommer for de brede masser får man også i kina samme forhold som man har i tyskland, italien og danmark med en høj levestandard, pæne og solide boliger og parker, en masse offentlige ansatte, høje skatter og et jævnt kedeligt samfund uden udvikling og mulighed for eller håb om at få det bedre, medens de fattige lande har håbet om at den fremgang de oplever bliver til endnu mere fremgang
og fordi den teknologiske udvikling fortsætter med sine produktivitetsforbedringer
så sker væksten fra fattigt samfund til højt udviklet industrisamfund hurtigere og hurtigere for hver gang et nyt land ryger ind på S-kurven
nu er det kina sammen med en række andre lande som vietnam mm, der sidder i start/midterfasen af den S-kurve
og man får altid de samme symptomer undervejs hver gang
og det har ikke noget meds tørrelsen af et land at gøre, hvor hurtigt de kan vokse i den fase, og derfor er konsekvenserne på det globale miljø og det globale resourceforbrug også meget større i kina, men det kan man ikke lave om på
det kan du lige så godt lære, at det er en natur lov og væksten kan ikke stoppes
så det ville være spild af tid at tage til kina, det er meget bedre at studere regnskaberne på virksomhederne i kina noteret i hong kong eller singapore og så købe dem, nu de er faldet 60-70% og er ekstremt billige, så det er meget bedre at bruge tiden der og der er masser af gode selskaber, der producerer med en fin kvalitet og dem finder man meget bedre ved at studere deres regnskaber, nyheder, hjemmesider mm end ved at tage ud og besøge dem
og så skal man selvfølgelig være i stand til at læse statistiske informationer om væksten på forskellige områder
eksport og import struktur i asien ex japan i forhold til resten af verden
fine detaillerede tabeller
hvis man kan tænke lidt selv, er der et væld af informationer, der viser, at verden boomer lige nu
http://www.finet.hk/hub/data/enpdf/20080707_other_59.pdf
Auto Sales Surge 36PCT in Indonesia
JAKARTA, July 7 Asia Pulse - Car sales peaked at 55,370 units so far this year in June, up 36.21% from 39,424 units in the same month last year.
The previous monthly record was in April, with sales reaching 51,640 units, falling to 50,698 units in May, the newspaper Bisnis Indonesia reported today.
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Wholesaling to dealers in June brought the total sales to 291,641 units in the first half of this year.
Astra Daihatsu Motor Marketing Director Amelia Tjandra said the fuel price hikes in May had had little effect on car sales in the country.
Amelia did not deny that the increase in sales was caused more by dealer speculation to keep stock, before car makers raised the prices to follow the increase in inflation triggered by the fuel price hikes.
prisen for vores ufattelige vækst i 50'erne og 60'erne her i danmark er at vi fik et offentligt system, hvor kvinderne bare blev ansat i det offentlige og fik løn betalt for vores hårdt tjente penge og at de brugte deres offentligt ansatte status, til bare at brokke sig uden at vide, hvad der foregår i verden
i kina er de dog ikke kommet så vidt, men bruger væksten til at få produceret noget
medens vi bare producerer en masse ligegyldigt snak om ingenting og har ansat eller sørget for at 70% af befolkningen får penge fra det offentlige gennem skattebiletten uden at arbejde
og så er der kun 30%, der arbjder, medens resten nasser på samfundet
eksport stigningen i samtlige lande i asien ex japan ligger på ca 23-24% y-y i maj, ingen tegn på svaghed og importen stiger lige så meget
eksporten til usa udgør ikke mere end 13% af den samlede eksport, så recessionen i usa har slet ingen betydning
Asia/Pacific Economics
Trade Balance Improves on
Exports
Asia ex Japan (AXJ) trade surplus in May-08
improves to US$19.4bn (vs. US$9.9bn in Apr-08)
after seasonal deterioration during Oct-07 to Mar-08.
The sharp rebound came on strong exports, which
accelerated further to 23.7% YoY (vs. 22.6%YoY in
Apr-08). Imports remained robust and improved to
28.7% YoY from 27.3% YoY in Apr-08.
Exports from China lead AXJ pack; India
moderates: Exports from China show marked
resilience and accelerated 28.1% YoY (from 21.8%
YoY in Apr-08), thus contributing 10.6%-pt to AXJ
export growth. Improvement was also observed in
exports from South Korea (26.9% YoY vs. 26.4% YoY
in Apr-08), Taiwan (20.5% YoY vs. 14.0% YoY in Apr-
08) and Indonesia (31.4% YoY vs. 23.1%YoY in Apr-
08). However, exports from India moderated to 12.9%
YoY from 31.5% YoY in Apr-08.
US remains weak but Europe, Asia, RoW show
strength: Exports to the US (accounting for 13% of
AXJ exports) rose at a subdued 9.2% YoY. On a YTD
basis, exports to the US remain at a low of 5.4% YoY.
Exports to the EU15 (representing 14% of AXJ exports)
rose at a healthy 19.8% YoY (vs. 21.0% YoY in Apr-08).
Exports to Asia (accounting for 50% of AXJ exports)
remain strong, rising 25.0% YoY (vs. 22.5% YoY in
Apr-08). Sustained strength was also observed in
exports to the Rest of the World (ROW, excludes US,
EU15 and Asia), which rose 33.8% YoY (vs. 33.7%
YoY in Apr-08.
Oil prices spike lifts total imports: While total AXJ
imports in May-08 rose 28.7% YoY, oil imports surged
66.9% YoY (vs. 58.5% YoY in Apr-08). Non-oil imports
remained healthy at 21.5% YoY (vs. 22.0% YoY in Apr-
08).
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Exports to the US
Exports to EU15
Exports to Asia
Exports to RoW
AXJ Exports (%YoY, 3MMA), USD Terms
Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research
jeg tvivler på at de har data, der kan beskrive den samlede globale udvikling
den her producerer sko og sælger dem i kina
men jeg har hørt (og lugtet) at de producerer for meget fodsved
den er ellers faldet til en pe på ca 6, fra 2½ til 0.84
så man kan godt komme til at svede med alle de aktier, der er på tilbud i kina, noteret i hong kong
og sko går vel ikke af mode eller er særligt cykliske
så den kunne godt være et godt køb, hvis man ikke vil gå i bare tæer
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=0738.HK&t=my
kan man ikke bruge dem som skibspropeller?
så kan impedansen trække skibet og et bølgekraftanlæg kan samle fluxzatoren op med en stor kapacitans
her er en kinesisk vindmølleaktie, der er faldet selvom den tjener gode penge og har stor vækst
men vi må heller spørge hanne om hun tror vingerne falder af pga dårlig kvalitet inden næste regnskab når at komme
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=0182.HK&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
HONG KONG, July 7 (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose on Monday, snapping a six-day losing streak on optimism that China's banking sector has thrived despite market turmoil and bargain-hunting investors picked over battered shares.
However, fears that stagflation would hit company earnings and continue to depress consumer spending kept enthusiasm under wraps as European, Asian and U.S. equity markets all lingered in bear market territory.
Oil prices slipped under $145 a barrel while corn and soybean prices slid, but with regional stocks persistently down more than 20 percent from cycle highs -- the common definition of a bear market -- investors sought safety, stability and perhaps some cheap stocks.
"Investors shouldn't feel too gloomy about the stock market since most shares have become cheaper after recent losses," said Michael On, managing director of Beyond Asset Management in Taipei.
Greater China markets led the region higher, with the Shanghai Composite .SSEC jumping 4 percent on hopes the index had found a near-term floor, bouncing from a 17-month low plumbed last week.
der er faktisk en oversigt længere nede, hvor der er tal også for rusland, sydamerika, østeuropa mm
men andelen for japan indeholder også korea og taiwan, underligt nok at man ikke splitter dem ud eller lader dem gå ind som en del af resten af asien
iøvrigt er andelen i sydamerika og rusland samt østeuropa forbløffende lav, men det er nok den lokale produktion man tæller og ikke importen af maskiner, men det er svært at gennemskue den slags, men kina er alt for lav, hvis den skulle indeholde lokal produktion, så det er nok bare importen, der tælles med
den har jeg en del i
man kan ikke rigtigt se om der er køreledninger
så spørgsmålet er om de kører med elektricitet eller dieselmotorer
men hanne kan jo med god grund påstå at kvaliteten er for lav, for hun har sikkert også prøvet at flyve med de SAS fly, der ikke kunne lande
her er det seneste regnskab fra mori seiki, japanske machine tools, hvor der bagest i filen er en række udmærkede grafer på ordreindgangen i sektoren, både for de forskellige japanske producenter og også i resten af verden fordelt på japan, usa, europa og asien, hvor europa nok indeholder østeuropa, tyrkiety, dele af rusland og meget mere og usa nok indeholder mexico og resten af latinamerika, men det kan man ikke se
jeg kan ikke copy paste dele fra adobe filen
http://www.moriseiki.co.jp/english/ir/announce_07/2008_03_kessan_setumei_e.pdf
hvornår har du skrevet et indlæg her, af 'faglig' værdi?
i stedet for er alle dine indlæg bevidst provokerende
og uden nogensom helst værdi i forhold til en aktiedebat
det var det samme frege gjorde og mange andre
og selv agenten begyndte på det, da han skrev her
så jeg vil bede dig om at forsvinde
JAKARTA, July 3 (Reuters) - Indonesia's motorbike sales are seen rising 46.6 percent in June despite the government's decision to increase fuel prices a month earlier, the country's largest motorcycle producer said on Wednesday.
Johannes Loman, marketing director at Astra Honda Motor, told Reuters total motorcycle sales in June are likely to rise to 542,887 units from 370,887 units in the same month a year ago.
Astra Honda, which manufactures and distributes Honda (7267.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) motorcycles in the country, said its own sales jumped 78.31 percent to 285,038 units last month.
Honda Motor Co and the country's largest automotive distributor, Astra International Tbk ASII.JK, jointly own the company.
The data is seen by analysts as a gauge of overall activity in Southeast Asia's largest economy.
Indonesia's automotive industry was severely hit the last time the government raised fuel prices in October 2005, but the sector has started recovering from that slowdown.
However, some analysts say the central bank's decision last month to hike its benchmark rate by a total of 50 basis points in the past two months, could hurt sales in the future.
Some analysts and industry experts have said they still expect this year's motorbike sales to top 5 million units, compared to 4.7 million units in 2007, even after the hike in subsidised fuel prices.
Most motorbike purchases in Indonesia are financed by loans, making sales sensitive to interest rates. (Reporting by Harry Suhartono, editing by Sugita Katyal)
SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korean flat screen maker LG Display Co (034220.KS: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and two smaller Taiwanese rivals are set to post profits for the second quarter that more than trebled thanks to strong demand for TVs and tight supplies of PC panels.
But a global economic slowdown that threatens to depress consumer spending and falling prices of liquid crystal display panels will slow growth in the coming quarters.
"Earnings have peaked in the second quarter," said James Kim, an analyst at Lehman Brothers. "Demand to replace TVs with flat-screen models is still there, but fewer consumers are buying large-size TVs because of the weak economy."
Analysts had widely expected a downturn to hit the sector at the end of the year, but they say that slowdown could come sooner and lead to a longer-than-expected slump.
Taiwan's top LCD makers, AU Optronics Corp (2409.TW: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Chi Mei Optoelectronics Corp (3009.TW: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), are considering cutting output to stabilize prices, the Commercial Times reported this week.
Drastic investment cuts last year helped the LCD industry enjoy strong earnings in the first half of this year, as tight supply kept pricing stable at a time when sales are usually slow.
But demand from the United States and Europe has slowed due to the weakening economy, although smaller sizes remain popular in emerging markets such as China.
And even in China, recent disasters such as heavy winter snow and the May earthquake have hurt sales and disappointed some who had expected the entire nation to snap up sleek LCD TVs ahead of the Beijing Olympics. Continued...