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To my extended trading family, I wish you all a very happy Thanksgiving. Also, I present you with two holiday jokes. Anyone have answers? Two
#1: What key has legs and can't open doors?
#2: Why did the turkey cross the road?
OT: "The Secret of Oz," a worthwhile 4-min video re. what our nation must do to fix the economy. Two
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
Hey, blasher. Post 91287 equals spam? Two
Yes...but I don't think they'll let it fall going into T-Day. Down a little in the a.m., then we go up pretty hard to finally settle only slightly above today's close? That's how I see it now. But my vision isn't always 20-20 (lol). Still think Friday will be the big "downer." Or Monday at the outside? One or both of those days will be tough on the bulls. Two
Looks like the NDX/Qs may drop a little tomorrow a.m., the rally the rest of the day? JMHO. Two
You're probably right, michael. The sales numbers are all fudged anyway, right? An example of this fudging is the government's own jobs website. One of the national news networks dug into the posted numbers and discovered a lot of them were fabricated and/or greatly distorted. Two
Yes, I see what you're saying, Fox. My charts see a little drop today, then a very slow and mild rally tomorrow into Friday morning (which is only half a day of trading). My guess is that Black Friday's sales results will not be as good as expected, causing the sell-off that my charts see coming. The question is when? Friday or Monday? I'm leaning now toward Monday. JMHO. Two
OT: Need a little laugh this morning? The FDIC's Shelia Bair, in a TV spot ad, tells you not to put your money into a shoebox...but rather put it into your bank. And financial genius Suze Orman agrees with her that your money is safe because major banks are insured by the FDIC. Now doesn't that make you feel confident about the banks? Two
Sorry, blasher, I picked it up from another site...and it's gone now. Two
No problema, 2bit. Prechter may be a tad early? I sort of agree with the TTheory folks, as I think Da Boyz will push the indexes a little higher into the Dec. holiday period. Two
Hey, 2bit. I think this post from another board will answer your question. Two
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"As the Dow did its mini Moon Shot up this morning on news of an increase in new home sales, Prechter took this snapshot of the market and sent out a recommendation to go 200% short. All in."
http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/11...l-in-short.html
Thanks, Gleno. Prophet allows me to go back 20 years or longer, even on a daily basis. It's fascinating to track the market's history. For instance, we were already in a strong downtrend when 9/11 hit, and the indexes went down a few more days after the market was reopened a week later. Then they bottomed and there was a nice rally, if you'll recall. I've experimented with the 20-year daily NDX chart and my lines think we may have one more high, in December, before taking a pretty hard hit to the downside in early 2010. Just my best guess. Two
Not to worry, lol. I've been short since 10:35 and plan to stay that way...unless things change, of course. Two
Hey, Gleno, this year in many respects has been the polar opposite of last year, hasn't it? My daily charts say we're in a s-t downtrend despite today's rally. My guess, based on what I see, is that we trail down tomorrow and then go up into the close on Wednesday. Now wouldn't that be like Da Boyz? And then they lower the hammer on Friday? Two
Hey, Fox. Everything gets politicized for someone's economic gain, right? I've stopped worrying about the environment and global warming. Which is quite a change for me seeing that I was a political activist on these subjects as a young man in the early 1970s. The only "global warming" I care about these days is to be able to snuggle with my wife on a cold winter's night (that really matters after nearly 44 years of marriage). Humanity should have no trouble heating up the globe going forward, especially with the Chinese buying cars and trucks by the millions. It won't be long after I depart this earth that it may turn into a "greenhouse" of momumental proportions. Two
Thanks, you. My guess, based on what I see on the 5-min and daily NDX charts is that the NDX will hit its high today, but not exceed the high of 11/16 (or the closing price on that date). If my guess is right, then Da Boyz will "float" the price of the NDX (and Qs) at around today's highs, or slightly below them, through the close on Wednesday. Black Friday is when I expect to see fireworks to the downside. JMHO. Two
Lord Blankfein will put "God's work" first and ensure that the indexes rise into Thanksgiving (lol). This has nothing to do with "gurus." Rather, it has to do with the "Lord's" fervent prayer that he be forgiven by the masses he has trampled in the past. Two
My guess is that they close the NDX/Qs almost on the low...just to confuse the hell out of both bulls and bears. Two
Looks that way to me, as well, Gleno. And I know what you mean about "punishment." Two
I agree and pointed that out in a previous post. The cycle has focused on the indexes dropping the final week in each month, then going into rally mode at the beginning of each month. But sometimes Da Boyz throw a little "wrinkle" into the mix and do what I call a fakeout upside move before taking prices down one more time. My opinion is that if we see a rally beginning on Monday, it will be a fakeout into T-Day, followed by the usual end-of-month decline. Recent examples of this include the fakeout rallies starting 9/28 and 10/22. There were similar periods in May, June, July and August. The patterns, in my mind, are unmistakable. That doesn't mean they will continue forever. But apparently that's the way Goldman's trading software is programmed. Two
Thanks, Fox. As usual, your sophisticated system is way too smart for me. Like Dan, I use very simple 5-min and daily charts. They're telling me we'll probably have one more NDX bottom today and that we'll start up again on Monday. But they're also telling me the downtrend that started with the highs of 11/17 isn't over yet. The funny thing is that my daily charts suggest strongly that the NDX/Qs topped on that day and may have seen the highs of the year. However, my charts also suggest strongly that the INDU did not top. Which implies to me, at least, that the NDX may only do a double-top during the next run-up (Dec.) and the INDU may achieve its high for the year next month. JMHO. Two
That was the one, you, and you're right about that Monday being the time to short again. What I think Da Boyz will do, however, is keep the NDX/Qs more or less flat into Wednesday's close (to keep spirits high). As I mentioned in a previous post, it's the day after T-day when I think the indexes will go down hard ("Black Friday"). And if history repeats, which it usually does in a manipulated market, we may see a bottom on 11/30 and a new rally commence on 12/1. JMHO. Two
Thank you, whereismyorange. Now tell me where you got that great handle? Two
FYI...in my opinion, today's NDX performance is a repeat (like in carbon copy) of 9/25, a day that saw a bottom around 1:20 EST, with a close on the bottom. Notice that on 9/28, a Monday, there was an enormous ramp job. I think Da Boyz have a similar scenario in mind for us, particularly since we're going into Thanksgiving week. Something to watch. Opinions? Two
I see the Qs bouncing tomorrow and trailing off a little on Monday. It's the day after T-day that most likely will see the decline resume in full force. The pattern of allowing declines to occur during the final week of each month, followed by the beginning of a rally during the first week of each month, has been going on for nine months. This pattern most likely will continue for December. Da Boyz don't want to give up their end-of-year bonuses. And a major decline in December would kill the X-mas shopping season. This is a no-no for Bernanke and Geithner. JMHO. Two
Gleno, keep in mind that we're going into the Thanksgiving holiday and they want everyone to "feel good" about the economy and their market gains. I'm cautious until after Thanksgiving. Two
Hey, Foot, seems to me this would be the logical time to short gold (when Paulson invests his $250 million in the new gold fund). I'm sure Da Boyz are drooling in anticipation. Two
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Gold To Skyrocket As Paulson Personally Invests $250 Million In New Gold Fund
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/18/2009 12:03 -0500
Developing story from the WSJ: John Paulson to make "big new bet on gold" and to personally invest $250 million in new gold fund on January 1.
Very well stated, capt! Apparently, with the relatively low volumes we've seen during these many months, it doesn't require as much money from the spigot as you might think to elevate the indexes? Plus, they've got everyone conditioned and ready for the bounces that always seem to occur. Two
FYI...Phantom spike to 44.40 at 10:00. Two
OT: See, unless you make a lot of money trading stocks, you probably won't pay any income tax next year (lol). Two
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5% Of U.S. Taxpayers Account For 60.6% Of All Tax Revenue, 47% Will Pay No Federal Tax In 2009
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/17/2009 14:15 -0500
An interesting observation courtesy of Mint: of the 307,868,280 Americans out there, which compose 151,485,000 tax units, 46.9% will have zero federal income tax liability in 2009. Brilliant plan to keep the country happy: the poor pay no taxes, the rich get a massive stock market bubble to sell into, and the disappearing middle class...well, they can pay $20 for a hotdog and beer combo in Prague on that once-every-five-years vacation.
McHugh was fooled by that mutant H&S, as well, and I haven't trusted his analyses since. He's also been calling for the big "wave C down" for the past month. As someone on another board said yesterday, Da Boyz want their end-of-year bonuses. Which makes me think wave C down won't start until January or thereabouts. But who knows? Two
Fox, ZeroHedge presented a post by Nic Lenoir on the SPX action. Two
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Submitted by Nic Lenoir of ICAP
Picking up where we left off last night, we have been consolidating before the next, and this time, at least in the near term, last push higher in US equities. A break above 1,106.75 should take us to 1,115/1,1120. Meanwhile we have established a short-term support at 1,101 which can be observed as a stop for fast money longs. 1,095.50 remains the support which if broken confirms we will retest 1,082 before 1,033/1,012. This last support zone is the make or break. If we go through then we are on our way 943 and 875. I remain bearish in the medium term as I am still not convinced that we can print our way out of the debt bubble burst and use hyperinflation instead of deflation to solve our problems.
Looks to me like the Qs may have done a double-top (first one at 11:50 at 44.62, second one at 1:00 at same price). I think we're heading down from here. But it will be slow and painful. JMHO. Two
Thanks, Dan. Two
Dollar is doing a double bottom. Two
I'm waiting for another new high, which is about to happen. Two
I'm cautious at this stage. Good luck. Two
The way things are going, the only ones who will have jobs will be those who regularly attend Obama's many summits. Two
It appears the NDX/Qs are also attempting to make a double-top, and the dollar a double-bottom? As Charlie Chan used to say, "Very interesting." Two
Thank you. Two