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wow. this just got interesting. word is AET expanded coverage and DNDN jumped 50+ cents. that should sting the shorts and will be very painful if more buyers come in. 43,000,000 short / 12 days to cover.
DNDN SHORT SQUEEZE
Lots of call options being bought over the last few days: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/marketcenters/optionscenter/content/dendreon+speculators+overdose+on+bullish+bets/default.aspx?ID=113045
Either a hedge by the 43,000,000 shares short or some large bullish bets. My assumption is its probably a hedge, but even so, at least those hedging are a little nervous that the stock might show some results in the next couple months.
DNDN - Will it close the week above the 50MA?
Hasn't done so since May. It's making higher highs and higher lows over the last month and MACD is about to cross the moneymaker. With the large short interest (12 days to cover), a close above the 50MA could make for a very profitable week next week if you're long.
DNDN - Will it close the week above the 50MA?
Hasn't done so since May. It's making higher highs and higher lows over the last month and MACD is about to cross the moneymaker. With the large short interest (12 days to cover), a close above the 50MA could make for a very profitable week next week if you're long.
DNDN awarded $8,000,000 Contract with VA
small jump this morning on the news that wallachbeth assumed coverage with buy rating. target $11.
Up 9%+ today. Obviously still has a ways to go, but at least it recovered a little from where it was ending last week.
flat-lined the last couple days. today's close was positive. let's see the next leg up!
50MA crossed 200MA. Looking for a move up.
Yep. I'm surprised to see it holding above $0.20. Volume up quite a bit today.
Back below $20. I wouldn't say it's trading really well. It's not a mass exit, but the selling pressure is still way more than the buying pressure. The shares unlocked today are from savvy investors who are not going to panic sell -- they'll time it and get as much as they can for their shares. No way I would go long at this price. I think it sinks further tomorrow and in the months to come.
either shareholders are not paying attention to the filings or the market is absorbing the r/s info better than i would have expected as it's holding $0.20.
Yep. The filing indicates elevating the stock price to $4/share (or $3/share if certain contingencies are met). So, if the price did not fall below $0.20 (which I think is unlikely), that would be a 1-20 split. We'll see what ensues...
well, you got a clue about the financial train wreck in the PRE 14A that was filed yesterday -- i just noticed it today.
looks like the a/s will increase, but more importantly they're seeking approval to permit a reverse split should the board of directors choose to move forward with it. note, they are not saying one will occur, but previous personal experience dictates this will more than likely move forward at some point within the next year, especially given the financial train wreck. their rationale is for an uplisting off the otcbb, which frankly i don't view anywhere near as important as building out the facility and generating revenue.
i doubt most saw this filing yet so i decided to take the loss before the panic sets in. i'll still watch and will probably jump back in at a later date.
yeah, i just saw that a lock-up expires on 8/19. definitely not getting in before then now.
yeah, $16 is around where i would start buying this as well.
agreed. prudent move, but hardly makes a difference given burn rate is $2.2M a month. hopefully the symbolism means more than the actual cash value.
sorry to see you go, but understood. good luck.
agreed. unfortunately, i think it's taking longer than most of us hoped for it to ramp up and i probably should have looked at the burn rate more closely before i jumped in nearly a year ago.
IHUB User JohnBarone's thoughts:
LAVIV it's the SAFEST and THE BEST FDA approved solution in wrinkle management and offers a natural look compared with other products SCULPTRA, JUVEDERM...LAVIV PROS: natural look, no side effects you can have as many injections as you want, no granulomas, premium product in this business CONS:expensive, expensive, expensive and patience but you need to pay for what you get so it has a big chunk of market. It takes time and patience for this company to make huge profit...it s not a gold/oil mining company....they have a proven/ tested product, certified Laviv physicians and strong research partners.
BESIDE wrinkle management I do belive product derivatives will be used in the future on joint damage in chronic patients.
I will give you a case scenario let's say you re a woman in her late 30's and you start wrinkle treatment with botox,sculptra, fillers and so on for how long can you safely use them? 5-7 years after that your look will not be natural anymore...Laviv can be used lifelong without sensibility type reaction and a NATURAL look.
I will quote "Approaching Maximum Capacity - Month of May is 100% Booked - Not Accepting Any More Biopsies for May
Will be adding 2nd shift of workers and/or adding an incubation suite."-from my standpoint of view they reached their goal.
No, your projected financing on securing the extra $12M is inaccurate according to CFO Declan. He was specifically asked this question during the call. I would suggest you listen to that portion of the call.
Correct, capacity is an issue. It would seem adding a 2nd shift would be cheaper than the incubator suite they mentioned (at $2.3M). The 2nd shift would be the logical next step IMO. Then, they would eventually have to expand next year. I thought I heard Declan basically say that the expansion would not occur until next year because the CAPEX would be more beneficial at that time.
My Conference Call Summary Notes
Pernock - FS had productive month as you know from the recent PRs. We know financial is first and foremost, so let's begin with that.
Financial Update - Declan
$3.4M Private Placement Raised
Total Amount Approved for is $12M
Additional closings will come within the next weeks (more dilution)
Working with debtholders. May include converting equity (more dilution)
Booked revenue (from 10Q about $215K with about 199K from Agera / about $16k from laviv) and cost of sales (from 10Q $1.5M). Large discrepancy between cost of sales and revenue. There are a few different reasons
for this -- see 10Q.
UCLA Update - MIT will be joining the team (UCLA/MIT/FS) - Dr James Burn (UCLA) / Dr Daniel Anderson (MIT)
Extensive overview and update on research being done. Listen to the call for the details. Bottom line (my POV), neat but
will not provide revenue any time soon.
Burn Scarring - Dr Greg Chernoff (greg@drchernoff.com) / Burn Scarring Patient's Testimonial (James Huddleston)
Dr Chernoff broadly talked about his and his patients' excitement over laviv. James is an Iraqi war vet with depressed scar down face. Noticed the scar is much smoother. Doesn't feel like a filler. Feels like
face is actually changing. Would recommend to anybody (even those who didn't have severe scarring). Feels much more
confident. Noticed this article in Nov 2011 published prior to James' treatment: http://www.wishtv.com/dpp/news/local/marion_county/unique-cosmetic-procedure-comes-to-indy)
Personalized Skin Care Cream Update
All equipment to manufacture cream has been installed and completed. Testing has been completed. Final fill will be 1.7 oz and labeled for each customer.
High margin product given most of the expensive components are from excess laviv process.
Acne Scarring - Dr Gilly Munavalli / Patient Patty Steelman (sp?)
Hoping for approval of publication of acne study very soon. Very excited to show the great results shown in the study.
Patty can see difference and had positive result. Can still see a difference 2 years later. Wants to get other side done.
Generally, working on (lots of) ways to reduce manufacture/logisitics /etc. costs and waiting time for patients. Could reduce from 90 days to as little as 30-45 days
Orders Placed:
New Physicians - 4Q=23 / 1Q=53 / April=16
Repeat Physicians - 4Q=0 / 1Q=13 / April=20
Doctors Who Have Performed:
10+ Biopsies - 4 (Oct-Mar 31) / 7 (April)
4-9 Biopsies - 9 (Oct-Mar 31) / 18 (April)
2-3 Biopsies - 22 (Oct-Mar 31) / 29 (April)
1 Biopsy - 31 (Oct-Mar 31) / 38 (April)
Biopsies Performed:
Q4 - 130 Biopsies
Q1 - 189 Biopsies
April - 71 Biopsies
44 injections thru April 30 delivered
92 physicians using Laviv thru April 30
680 physicians trained thru April 30
Approaching Maximum Capacity - Month of May is 100% Booked - Not Accepting Any More Biopsies for May
Will be adding 2nd shift of workers and/or adding an incubation suite (cost of $2.3M)
coverage on ucla in philadelphia biz journal: http://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/blog/john-george/2012/05/ucla-fibrocell-partnership-yields.html
i bought a little (a very little) last week at .25. trying to get my average down. it only needs to more than double from this point for me to break even LoL
certainly it won't be significant. but i would now expect something on the books.
maybe they'll have news by then. maybe not. i'm looking forward to the call because i'm hopeful they'll finally show some revenue!
hardly. because there's no way this type of news would boost the share price. all of this research is years out from yielding any sort of revenue. investors have far more immediate concerns. great they're making progress on this front, but i would hope to have a return far in advance of them getting anywhere near making revenue with the stem cell approach.
Conference call announced for May 15, 2012 at 4:30 PM Eastern Time to discuss 1Q. That's good to hear. I would think the financing should be worked out by then...
been trying to pickup a few more at .25, but no luck the last couple of days so far...
you're probably not going to get anything before financing is announced. it will go hand-in-hand. as you are aware, they only have about a month or so left so they need to get something on the books. wouldn't make sense to have a conference call without an update on the financing.
i think it's ridiculous that i can't get a response to some basic questions asking for clarification on pricing that pernock brought up during the call. i initially filled out the contact form on the site and then followed up twice with Lena Adams. no response after a number of weeks now. so much for being more open with shareholders.
the play for pernock would be to find a partner on another indication, which would boost the price (probably significantly). then, he should negotiate the financing. of course he'll probably do it backwards.
i'm a little disappointed that i've emailed a couple of times about clarification on revenue questions that pernock discussed on the call and have not received a response. it's been well over a week including follow-ups.
as we both said a couple months ago, i don't think we doubted the cash. i think we're both just hesitant on the terms. and we have to still see what those will be.
Given the discounting, it's impossible to determine what the revenue will be throughout 2012. We definitely know that each physician is provided with two free biopsies. We also definitely know that 189 biopsies were done by 53 doctors in Q1 with 104 as first time and 85 as repeat. We can probably write-off the 104 first time biopsies as freebies given there were 53 doctors and each receives two freebies. So, presumably, they would have collected some sort of revenue on the 85 repeats. Whether they got the full $2,750 for them, we have no way of knowing. If they did, that would be $233,750 in revenue for Q1. But, my guess would be that it was less -- I'll throw out the number $192,500. I think your figure of $20,000 is low.
In April of last year, Rodman and Renshaw had forecast revenue of $17M for 2012. But, they did not factor in the discounts that would be offered and figured it would be $3,000 per biopsy. So, it will definitely be less than their previous figure, but I think if you're predicting $20,000 for Q1, you'll be surprised.
correct, no AH trading on OTC. they're trades from earlier in the day.
remember they are seeking partners for the other indications. this would reduce their cost. and if i recall on the conference call, pernock provided estimates of the cost for the trials, which were less than what you provided by quite a bit.
Summary of the Conference Call:
I'm somewhat surprised at the reaction of this board so far...I'm thinking I'm not reading the same reports and listening to the same call...At least the market seems to be taking the news better as the stock is up 100% today (as I write this). The sad part is if there wasn't a panic yesterday, we'd probably have gone above $0.50 based upon the call.
First of all, the CFO (and then another investor during the Q&A) said basically what I said yesterday, which is that novice investors don't know how to read 10Ks and panicked. The fact was reiterated that the language in the 10K was boilerplate and appears in every previous report for this company (as well as those for other companies). They could not expressly say, but they basically said, we're not going to go bankrupt.
They also reiterated the other point I made yesterday with regard to revenues and why they did not have any showing for 4Q. Payment is received after the vials ship, which may take a couple of months. So revenues will be delayed.
It's difficult to gauge where they are this year with revenues because they have various introductory discounting with doctors. We know that doctors receive at least 2 free biopsies. I'm not sure what cost the vials are after that because I don't know if they're providing further discounting. In 2013, we know that they have already told doctors the price will be $2,750 and they said doctors seem fine with that pricing.
They said right now capacity is the issue and not demand as demand is high. The figures they put out there were as follows:
4Q11 - 23 doctors performed 130 biopsies
1Q12 - 53 doctors performed 189 biopsies (104 first time/85 repeat)
2Q12 (projection) - 160 doctors performing 486 biopsies (239 first time/247 repeat)
3Q12 (projection) - 200+ doctors performing 1267 biopsies (441 first time/826 repeat)
4Q12 (projection) - 500+ doctors performing 2689 biopsies (694 first time/1995 repeat)
That would bring the total for 2012 to 4,631 biopsies (1,478 first time/3,153 repeat). Unfortunately it's difficult to determine what kind of revenue it would equate to for 2012 given the discounting. If the same number of biopsies were performed in 2013 at the non-discounted rate, this would equate to almost $13M in revenue. However, the company predicts to nearly double this in 2013 to $25M though.
They are looking at all forms of partnerships and have interests from other parties. From what I gathered, the company would prefer to pursue the aesthetic options but would welcome partners in indication specific areas (acne/burn). Obviously this would reduce their R&D costs. It did not sound like they would move forward with a full buyout at this point, although he did not rule it out.
They said they were trying to put together the financing and that they should receive an extension on the debt. They are looking at dilutive and non-dilutive forms (my assumption would be we see some dilution). He said it would be more difficult based upon yesterday's drop, although now that the price is rebounding, hopefully the terms are better. They will post the minute they find financing.
They are pursuing phase 3 trial for acne hopefully this year with it to be complete sometime in 2013. They are also working on phase 2 for burn scarring. The personalized skin cream is slated for launch in Summer of 2012, which should provide steady revenue stream in addition to laviv. They're also working on developing another skin cream possibly for 2013. The stem cell research with UCLA is being worked on over the long-term.
They also indicated they would keep investors better informed as they learned a lesson. Hopefully he sticks to this statement.