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And what's wrong with a double ??? If you buy smart you can get a double in this stock , maybe a triple. I'll take that all day long.
I don't think that you will ever see 02. Something Wicked alone is worth more than that. NGHT is on sale at these prices as is SFXE which is down over 5% today. Its a great time to scale into SFXE as well. Best of Luck to the Longs. Ad General if your out there im sure we would all like to here your thoughts on the derivatives and their possible impact on 2nd quarter earnings.
There is all manner of ways that they could cut costs at stereo live and grind profits out of it for one thing they can hire cheaper regional talent is supposed to international highly paid DJs. They could simply rent the venue out to local promoters and let the promoters take the risk of concert profits.
I suspect they're looking at all of the above.
I plan to hold through the end of the year banking on the fact that something wicked will be a big moneymaker.
I am concerned that they have not announced who their talent is for Something Wicked and they are already engaged and pre-selling the show.
It's not unheard of for fans to buy tickets to events for mature shows without knowing who the talent is.
That being said I have very close friends in the concert business and one of them has a Halloween show in a neighboring market. They are up 300% in sales over last year and they have announced their talent roster.
I have another friend that has an EDM festival scheduled for March 2015 and they have already announced their talent.
There is a rumor that they are signing up base nectar to be there headline act base nectar is a huge draw.
We have no idea if they are or not and won't till 2nd quarter results come out . They have every reason to tighten up and produce a Proffit fir 2nd quarter as their dismal first quarter decimated their share price.
Great buy in zone. I think that we will see 2nd quarter profits as management figures out how to grid out profits from Stereo Lives operations. I also think that they learned there lesson after the disastrous 1st quarter results and that they are doing everything in their power to deliver some semblance of profits for the second quarter.
Booking profits may well be the reason that they have not announced there talent for Something Wicked as of yet. They may well be hording cash till the end of June. Just a theory.
I am at the FireFly Music fest in Delaware this weekend. It has some strong parallels to Something Wicked in that both were one day festivals last year and expanded to multi day events this year.
Firefly like Wicked is hosted at a venue that's a racetrack/ casino
Firefly is hosted at Dover Speedway and Casino, Wicked at Sam Huston. Both are close to major metro areas.
Fire Fly went from 1 to 4 days and according to my sources are expecting attendance to blow up to 80,000 persons this year.
NGHT should experience a blow up in attendance when they expand Something Wicked this year.
http://www.billboard.com/articles/columns/music-festivals/6128508/firefly-festival-2014-preview
Well written, we agree to disagree on the General. I'm going to keep my end of the discussion of NGHT as on point and professional as possible from this point on. It's all about waiting for 2nd quarter results for me.
Ive reloaded and I'm ready for NGHT to run. I believe the company can move forward at this point because the weak hands were flushed out. The problem with attacking the General has always been right on the money, has consistently told the truth, and is very knowledgeable about warrants, derivatives and accounting. Everything that he is predicted is come to pass. It's senseless to criticize him. Let's hope that the company announces who their talent is for Something Wicked as soon as possible, and that they can post some sort of profit for the second quarter. Good luck to the Longs keeping my fingers crossed.
He can because he is the General a tour de force on wall street and the normal rules don't apply .
There is no other way to explain the volume and price hike immediately before the Seaking Alpha article came out other than front running. One of the investors that took part in it literally melted down here on iHub as soon as the price of NGHT caved in. He bailed out and lost his a**.
Pumps are an exercise in futility and never to the advantage of the company as they only serve to frustrate long-term investors.
If rather buy in the 5 s than the 12 s ,
I believe you Matt, and I have nothing against you. I just trust the dd done by The General, he has been very accurate in every thing he has posted. Id say he is a Guinness in fact. Sorry if he is shooting your SA article apart but if you put something out there for public consumption then you are going to have na sayers.
But to say the SEC would investigate his goings on without taking a look at you is the pot calling the kettle black. Seriously.
Every one is entitled to his opinion as to valuations. I cant agree with yours sorry, at least not in the real world, wall street may be completely different.
Ive seen festivals bought and sold and I have a good understanding on the valuation metrics in private sales.
At .05 a share Id say buy away, the only wild card I see is MeltDown. Id rater see them cancel it personally because its such a wild card with the date change.
As always best of luck.
This boards been a real education an eye-opener for me. And I for one greatly appreciate the General. I've gotten a college education here on this board and a couple of months.
We should all meet up at some point I bet we actually all like each other
What about buying a stock, front running an article that you knew was about to come out and that you wrote on behalf if a grip of longs. Can't we all just get along LOL. Jesus
If they beak even with no shows and purely stereo live earnings then that tells me that stereo live is stable going into something wicked and possibly meltdown. If I can successfully Devine wicked with a headcount I will in fact have a good idea as to what the 4rth quarter should be.
Lets see what happens with 2nd quarter earnings, if they break even or post a profit then Ill feel much better going into Something Wicked.
Hell it may be a good idea to just fly to Huston, go to the show and do a headcount and place your bets accordingly.
I'd say you're very close with those revenue numbers but in the real world, not in Wall Street world, those numbers need to translate into profits in order to be able to sell a festival to a buyer . Perhaps Wall Street is a completely different animal where profits don't matter.
I completely agree that Something Wicked is profitable and has huge potential.
Management needs to show real earnings not gross sakes and revenue before I'd pay one red cent for shares above the present levels.
I do think that they are on the right track in expanding Something Wicked, and I assume that they must think that they can make something out of meltdown.
It generally takes 3 to 5 years to turn a festival into a profitable enterprise.
I've worked on dozens of festivals for the last 10 years. Some of my closest friends are festival producers. It's very rare to make a proffit in the first 3 years.
Matts valuation metrics are complete fantasy at least in the real world they are. Maybe on Wall Street they are the norm. Finding the answer to that question is why I'm here watching this stock.
As to The General, he is a shareholder not a short, he just wants to pay a fair price based on sound accounting principals. I don't blame him.
As always to Management Good luck and show me the earnings !!!!
It will certainly make for a very interesting fourth-quarter, especially if they wind up producing the Meltdown Festival in the same quarter.
I view the Something Wicked festival a lock, an absolute moneymaker, however MeltDown if they do in fact produce it in the fall, is a crap shoot because of the date change and lack of momentum as far as promotion goes. It could sap the profits from Something Wicked if it's a bust and held during the same quarter.
As always it's all about the earnings, nice bounce today. I've been adding to my position slowly at these levels. I will be very interested in the 4rth quarter earnings. If they can turn a Proffit on Wicked and Meltdown they will be in a very good position going forward.
It's too late imop to promote melt down for this summer although they could push it till next fall. If they do it it will be a big wild card in the earnings as I don't think that they would move the date if they were profitable in 2013. Fans already have there travel arrangements and plans for their summer shows.
First off let me preference this by saying that it the present price levels I feel that NGHT is very fairly priced and possibly even oversold.
That being said it's simply ludicrous to compare NGHT to SFXE as far as revenue to price ratios are concerned.
SFXE owns numerous very profitable festivals, real estate, Beatport and A very successful and profitable merchandising company.
NGHT is a small business at the end of the day. The only thing that counts here is profits not revenue.
I do believe that the something wicked show is worth $2 million or more and that NGHT will turn stereo live operations around and become profitable.
I would love to see some management guidance as to what the increased promotion expenses were and how they are calculated.
I have my own theory's but I'm not going to post something that would amount to conjecture.
Ok so we are back to historical price levels, let's hope that the investors and management see that pumps with out earnings are an exercise in futility.
Let's hope that management can cut expenses, make good deals with talent and grow the business with earnings.
That's the only way to get rich at this guys EARNINGS, not PR telling us about the general market for EDM, Facebook likes, what famous DJ your buying, SFXE or Live Nation Earnings.
Famous Talent has to become earnings. Revenue without earnings is meaningless in a company as small as NGHT.
I would not buy any small business without meaningful real earnings, no matter if it was a retail store , a auto dealership or NGHT.
I still believe in the company and I hope that they see the fallacy of Pumps.
All pumps do is frustrate the long term investors and drive them away. When you have earnings to report by all means report it loudly and often but cut the nonsense or you'll drive your serious investors away.
The biggest debunking is the fact that NGHT is down 59% since May 5th when your article came out....................ouch. Thank God I bought in the 4's but anybody that bought at the highs based on your research took a complete and utter shellacking.
Furthermore, Matt, the price and volume in NGHT in the days leading up to your article, suggest that one or several NGHT investors encouraged you to write this article and the run up in price was just a reflection of them trying to get in on the stock pump before the article came out.
Pumps, exaggerations and dubious accounting pricepals don't do the investors any good. Sure our balances go up for a few days but pumps always come crashing down as they have over the entire history of this stock, just look at a chart.
I was completely getting excited when the run up occurred, texting my closest friends that NGHT would soon have a valuation of over 10 million!!!!
Thanks Matt
As I said in the following post
"As soon as they show some real profits they will be back up it's that simple. Had they shown 1st quarter profits coupled with the SA article they would by trading in the teens, however they were unable to do it. "
I'm not going to bother picking your article apart as its already been done on a through and very effective bases on this board.
The poster that I was originally responding to has already taken their post down either because they don't believe in the validity of there arguments or for a terms of service violation.
Either way , Profits not rev growth are what will propel this stock.
Someone was on twitter today asking Disco Donnie (not NGHT ??) to turn Something Wicked into a 2 day event. Now there is an idea.
I said it was IMOP, and apparently the market agrees with me.
As soon as they show some real profits they will be back up it's that simple. Had they shown 1st quarter profits coupled with the SA article they would by trading in the teens, however they were unable to do it.
The math behind the SA article has been completely debunked in numerous post on this board.
At then end of the day NGHT is up 50% YTD. Nothing wrong with that !!!
Its fairly valued at this point IMOP.
The entire May run up was because of the dubious SA article that did no one any good as it was easy to see thru it and its accounting misrepresentations.
The kid that wrote it should be very wary of putting articles of this type out in the Financial Press and SA should be concerned about vetting future articles from this author.
That is mostly tradeing between market makers. I defy anyone to tell the board of a broker who will loan shares of NGHT for shorting. Mine won't. Tell us who will. I don't believe that there is one .
What you have here are a collection of investors who are trying to make sense out of the filings and understand the opportunity in the stock going forward by filtering through the BS
That's ridiculous it's impossible to short this stock, no broker will loan you the shares necessary to profitably do it , furthermore you'd be crazy to even attempt it .
Its in the SFXE filings,its common industry knowledge and its in the Thump Magazine article that was posted by Dangerx on this board yesterday.
"Three months later, Disco Donnie announces that his is the first EDM-focused company to be bought by SFX Entertainment, a conglomerate operated by Robert F.X. Sillerman (who created the first incarnation of Live Nation), for a reported $9 million"
http://m.thump.vice.com/words/the-rave-king-rides-again
They paid 9 million for Disco Donnie ...... Think about that ???
That's like comparing the local deli to 7 11, SKXE is a world wide operation that owns over 70 huge festivals , a merchandising company and Beatport a music download and DJ beat sharing site. I am starting to accumulate sfxe myself at the 7 a share level. I'm bullish on both companies but they are in completely different leagues.
I agree !!!!
They will figure out what they need to do. Like I said there smart, young and in a good business. I was disapointed in the first quarter results but Im not selling as I believe in them long term.
I have a back ground in the festival business myself on the Venue Side and I've watched many young producers and promoters over the years. Most of them eventually made it. There is a learning curve.
I love there websites and social media. I believe that they will wind u focusing on what makes money and they will get rid of what does not make money.
Im a HUGE believer in the Something Wicked Show, and I think that Stereo Live will find its way.
As long as they have half naked girls showing up wearing fuzzy boots the boys will follow. They are selling out now and I think that they will reduce expenditures either by negotiation or by bringing in local talent and become profitable.
I plan on buying more shares at these levels as the warrants sell off.
Like The General whom I greatly respect, I hate Pumps and I think that its a disservice to the company to engage in them. Smart investors see right thru them.
Lol there are all sorts of vending opportunities at shows , generally the promoters bring in outside vendors for a cut if there take. One main Proffit center is show sponsorships which on a show like Something Wicked can become a major Proffit center. Budweiser is for instance paying as much as 50,000 pluss a show f
If Meltdown was profitable there is no way that they would change the date, Most shows start pre selling tickets 6 months out, Ultra in Miami has already gone thru 2 rounds of pre sales for there spring of 2015 show. If they produce Meltdown this summer it's going to be risky.
These guys are obviously smart, the took the Company public and have survived for over 3 years.
It's a matter of them finding out what works and what doesn't. Then focusing on what works.
General, wont the exercise of the warrants provide much needed cash to the NGHT coffers ??? Granted at the expense of the dilution of shareholders. Sorry Im a Businessman not an accountant and I don't have a handle on this but I KNOW YOU DO.
The General appears to be correct in his warnings about the warrants. We all knew it would happen at some point. At this rate Ill be in the red soon myself and Ill be adding in the .04's but Im not going to bet the farm on this.
I'm buying profits not revenue stream and unfortunately there are not any profits to speak of.
They control ONE location and that's Stereo live, which is leased not owned.
They are partnered with DD Presents and they are a strong company but at the end of the day they will be concerned about their own profits not NGHTs.
Im glad that they are growing there business but what they need to grow are their profits as its impossible for them to out grow past Stereo Lives seating capacity and they are already selling it out.
It takes 3 to 5 years for the average music festival to become profitable, so if they are looking to expand their operations into other festivals they will need operations capitol in order to expand and their is apparently none forth coming from Stereo Live.
I can think of several ways of turning this around depending on how much risk DD Presents or perhaps other promoters are willing to take.
Im hoping that they jettison the unprofitable areas of the business and concentrate on what is making money, which looks to me to be the Something Wicked Festival.