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S&P 500 looking very toppy here. We might see a correction very soon. The last time the market sold off, covid19 stocks soared. Just an observation.
B. O. B.
Wrong, it was mentioned in the last two webinars.
Also, please cite where the company ever stated an IV formula completion date of "end of July". I can't ever remember seeing that..
B. O. B.
Their market cap is £308mm gbp. Converted to US dollars $407mm usd. That's roughly 13 times today's market for AGNPF. To be on par, our stock price would need to be $3.70 USD, Canadian dollars that's $4.87 cad.
Also consider that SNG was valued much higher after it's data readout and has since pulled back a bit.
B. O. B.
Imo SNG on the London stock exchange is a far better comparison to Algernon than BELLUS Health. Both SNG and AGN are micro caps before a data reading and not great preforming, but once SNG reported data, boom. If AGN dose the same, we are looking at at least 10x current cap. JMO.
Had* not have. You now have my full respect,
Dr. Ssbains
B.O.B
Hey ssbains, your question were excellent. I want to apologize to you. I have doubt of you credentials, but that doubt has clearly evaporated now.
It is great to have a Doctor back on board!
Thanks Dr. Ssbains.
B. O. B.
Tony with the SMACKDOWN!
B. O. B.
*Might release some data on chronic cough before IPF trial is complete.
Straight from the CEO.
B. O. B.
Dr. Williams, Dr. Kolb, Dr. Kss, UT Dallas, medchem, group of Chinese scientists.
This is why I'm LONGGGG.
B. O. B.
Wow, wow, wait! Print out? Is this 1995?
Short answer, No. "covid is a reach" eh? Not as long a reach as your "claim" of being a medical doctor.
But thanks for the question, DOC.
B. O. B.
Thanks. I was thinking about adding a week for that audit, but I didn't factor in any acceleration in recruiting, so I think 2nd week Nov will be close.
The next 3 months shall be interesting. Do we slowly move north? Or do we float around this bloody pp price? Does our CEO "snipe" a big partnership deal? Nobody knows..
B. O. B.
To expand on this, Chris Morneau stated yesterday when taking about completion date:
"whether that be September 15 or September 30th" - Chris M.
That completely is inline with my math of September 25th for last patient enrolled. He then said this:
"There is 2 weeks of treatment for that patient, and then a 2 week followup. Then the study closes, and then I would estimate somewhere is the 3 week range for data to be reviewed, there is an audit of the data, then the company gets that data and then we do a data readout " - Chris M.
So 7 week minimum* after last patient enrolled.
September 25 (ish) + 49 days = November 13th.
Now we wait, around 84 days from now.
Second week of November.
B. O. B.
On August 5th the company announced "first patient enrolled". Today, August 19th, Chris announced 40 patients enrolled.
That's 40 patients in 14 days.
From last Thursday to yesterday, we went from 26 to 37.
August 5th to 13th (8 days), 26 p.
(26/8=3.25) average 3.25 per day
August 14th to 19th (5 days), 14 p.
(14/5=2.8) average 2.8 per day
Yesterday to today 3 added patients.
So, it looks to me that we are averaging 3 patients enrolled every day with no real uptick in enrollment yet.
At this rate of 3 per day, we will reach the 50% mark by (35/3=11.66) August 31st, 12 days from now. That doesn't add in increased enrolment, but we haven't seen that yet so.. End of August, likely first week of September to get news on "50% enrolled and completion prediction".
We can go even further and say at this current rate all 150 will be enrolled by September 25th. (75/3=25)
So, without factoring in acceleration, News first week of September for 50% enrolled
B. O. B.
I think that .80 PT is a "current" PT, determined by factoring in all information up to this point. In other words, Mackie Research believes Algernon should be worth .80 cents.
What it is not considering, is the execution of future milestones, ie. Positive data, partnership, ect.
If those happen, the price target would be much, much higher.
I think Mackie is right on the ball here, and with all going on, we should be trading at at least .80 cents now.
Jmo.
B. O. B.
37 patients enrolled to date. Based on my napkin math, adding the fact that enrolment is to gradually pick up, we should have 50% (75 patients) enrolled by the end of August with a NR regarding anticipated completion date. Second to third week in September for last patient dosed Imo, then a gruelling 7 week wait for data. Add a week for good measure, puts us at:
Middle of November.
BTW, I was impressed with Chris M today, straight and to the point.
Now we wait.......
B. O. B.
Well, you heard it from the horses mouth..
Material news will be released in a "News release", not a Facebook live, or Biopub webinar.
Also, no interim data is to be expected.
And.. Big Pharma partnership isn't in play until at least phase 2 data is released.
Chris was very clear on these points. Also to note, 7 weeks after the last patient is dosed at the minimum before data is released.
November is still the month, Imo from the information provided.
B. O. B.
I hope I'm wrong AMG, and I hope this explodes north like the many crypto-crap sh!t coins of recent.
B. O. B.
I understand many here are very excited for the news Tues/Wednesday but...
I'm gonna play "the Devils advocate" here. Been hearing rumours about partnerships, lots of people speculating about early data, etc, etc.. But if I were to bet, it's on something far less exciting..
We are only 2 weeks into this trial, preliminary data is very unlikely Imo, not impossible as Dr. Kss implied, but unlikely. And rumours from market watch historically have been just that, rumours.
What's more likely is just an update on enrolment, maybe 25%, maybe 100%.. From the last news release :
"We are very pleased to announce our first U.S. patient," said Christopher J. Moreau, chief executive officer of Algernon Pharmaceuticals. "We have also had steady enrolment from one of our international sites and, as a result, we expect to reach 25 per cent of our total target shortly."
Another, (and Imo more likely) update could be an expected completion date of the trial. Excerpt from news 2 weeks ago:
Phase 2b study completion and data readout
"Now that the study has begun, the company will make an assessment of the enrolment rate and will provide an update to the market in due course on a projected completion date as well as when the readout of the data can be expected."
I'm over getting "overly excited" from expected news from the company. Imo we won't have a data readout of any kind until November of this year.
For all of our holdings, I hope I am wrong, but I believe AGN/PF will be floating around the pp price of .35 cents Cad for awhile longer..
Manipulators will manipulate until they can't manipulate any longer. November can't come fast enough.
B. O. B.
E. X. C. E. L. L. E. N. T !
Thanks for sharing that Jgregsr, 2 big thumbs up!
B. O. B.
I'm a certified Reflexologist that specializes in the fields of Biofield therapy and Bioelectromagnetics. I received my pseudoscience degree from Trump University, where I graduated with high honours. My mentor and idol is Dr. Oz, the greatest MD of all time.
Call me DOCTOR B. O. B.!
BTW, what is an sr1? Trump University had strict policies on the use of Google as it had links to fake medical universities such as Johns Hopkins and Harvard Med, so I ask my questions to anonymous investors on online stock forums instead..
Dr. B. O. B., Pseudo MD, Rfx, BF, BEM.
They must not teach proof reading or spell checking in Med school, shame..
B. O. B.
26 patients enrolled in one week, so at the current rate of enrollment, all 150 will be enrolled by second week of September: 150/26= 5.8 weeks - 1 week already enrolled = 4.8 weeks so 5 weeks from now.
Let's assume enrollment picks up pace, so for fun let's - 1 more week as more sites come on line 4.8 weeks - 1 week = 3.8 weeks, so 4 weeks from now. Puts us at September 11th for last patient enrolled.
Now, Chris was clear in saying it will take 2 weeks to dose after last enrolled and another 2-4 weeks to process the data. So let's say 6 weeks after last patient enrolled :
Sep 11th (ish) + 6 weeks = Oct 23rd. (ish)
IMO this is the very earliest we get Data. I believe it will be after that, most likely November, as this is a slow process.
November is still the month Imo, we should find out from the company in the coming weeks. For now, I will just hold, but I don't see huge gains in the short term, so my focus atm is in other sectors.
Just my speculation.
B. O. B.
ALGERNON getting press. Two thumbs up!
B. O. B.
A daily close above .36 cad, AGN/PF will test .425, a daily close above .425 and AGN is back in the .50s.
Algernon has been trading much more civilized this week, and I'm expecting a breakout soon.
JMO!
B. O. B.
Russia Registers World’s First Covid-19 Vaccine Despite Safety Concerns
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-registers-worlds-first-covid-19-vaccine-11597141899?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/nF9tXNOQZB
B. O. B.
"The drug, which was tested on a coronavirus patient overseas for the first time Wednesday, may reduce the severity and duration of COVID-19 infections, according to Algernon Pharmaceuticals, a Canadian drug repurposing company that investigates pre-approved drugs for new disease applications and is now leading Ifenprodil’s COVID-19 testing."
Overseas.. Hmmm..
“Just looking at the results of the research, it’s astonishing,” said Mark Williams, Algernon’s medical director.
Mark Williams is why I keep my money here.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article244809382.html
B. O. B.
Wow, First Squawk tweeted about AGN/PF! They have a huge following on fintwit, thanks for posting HS.
B. O. B.
You know what else works on "MILD TO MODERATE" covid19? Ibuprofen. RVV is a scam.
EOM.
B. O. B.
Makes sense. That would explain the ex-potstock gurus pumping it hard on twitter. The twitter following for Algernon is almost none existent.
B. O. B.
RVV pumping hard on fluff news, AGN flat on material news..
Same old, same old //
B. O. B.
We are a legit "clinical stage pharmaceutical company" now. This was material news Imo.
B. O. B.
First patient dosed!!!!!
https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item?bid=Z-C%3aAGN-2943481&symbol=AGN®ion=C
B. O. B.
They "apparently" started screening patients (in an over capacitated Miami hospital) 1 week ago today.
Hmm..
B. O. B.
The way this traded today, I'd say the market is anticipating news either Monday or Tuesday of next week (Monday is a holiday in Canada). Hopefully Algernon Pharmaceuticals can deliver..
B. O. B.
I still stand by it, out of all the penny biotechs, I wouldn't trade AGN/PF for any of them.
BUT: My rant this morning had nothing to do with the science of Ifenprodil or comparing Algernon to the trash found on the otc/cse. It was directed to "over promise, under deliver" regarding dates put forth by our CEO.
I know all about RVV, comparable market cap, shares outstanding, and a so called drug for Covid. That company is still a scam potstock turned mushroom play that now pulled a drug for mild cases of covid. I wouldn't trade AGN for that, but as AMG highlighted today, they made true to their promise.
The market has been anticipating this news from AGN for weeks. As my fellow English friends from the U. K. would say:
"Get on with it!"
B. O. B.
I will +1 on that AMG. The responsibility ultimately lays on the CEO, one way or another.
B. O. B.