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GXXM FORECAST
Put filings and technicals aside for a moment. They only trick you into emotional confusion, the quickest road to becoming "dumb money." Looking for insight from CYA filings of failed business models teaches you nothing. Remain logical, work your business model, don't follow those of people who are bad with money. Next...
In OTC's, we are traders, not investors, so it's easy. There's one question. Is there a trade here? That's it. Based on that, GXXM is not "over," if you study the landscape and know what you're looking at. (You can make money trading companies that don't even exist, if you know the inside game.) Never trade based on OTC financials.
Without writing a book here, the question is easily answered. Before February's due date for a reverse split, will the MMs walk the stock up? Yes, or no? It's hard to believe MM's would pass up the chance to make 100-300% on a stock with GXXM's kind of buzz, before it splits, not to mention all the two-way transaction fees. Not logical.
GXXM's behavior over the last few months is EASILY explained: no news and low MM inventory. LIBE did the same thing this year. I bought in when no one wanted it (.0000 - No Bid - O Volume), bought it all at less than .0001/share, held. Five weeks later, it hit 0017, sold it. Next trade.
Between now and February, I expect GXXM to go from 0001-0004. Higher's possible, long term double 00's before the split? NO. The RS will happen from 0001, plan accordingly.
Happy trading!
-Oracle
I-Glow is correct, post reverse split, LIBE will drop like a stone, 20-30% or more and stay there weeks, months, or permanently. This is not an IPO, don't treat it like one, the pump is over. Filings will only trick yourself into hoping. DD time is over, work the trade, find the next one.
The only safeguard now is to lower your cost basis down to 0001 without spending any more money, before the split, but for high holders, doing that should have been started already when LIBE was at 0004 or more. Once the share price falls below half your cost basis, it's damage control, getting your cost basis down to 0001 or out even on the split is next to impossible.
Riding the split at all 0001's is safe, if you sell at the open on Day 1 of split. Hold for the day "to wait and see" or holding long will be fatal. Thumbs up, I-Glow, kudos for a little truth.
Happy trading!
-Oracle
LIBE-reverse split notes
A 2000:1 reverse split of LIBE will leave the price at .20/per share, then down 20-30% in the following weeks. I speak as a friend with a lot of experience at this.
I expect the split to happen from 0001-2, the stock is falling consistently. Don't read tea leaves, it's a typical MM walk down, so the safest play is to trade it down to get your cost basis as close to 0001 as possible while there is still time.
$1/share will NOT happen, remaining at or above .20 cents is highly unlikely after Day 1 of the split. Having been through FOUR of these 0001 reverse splits this year (XDSL, TMGI, ACGX, RETC), they ALWAYS turn out the same.
Get out at the open, you can escape clean, hold you will lose 20-30% more by holding, and know exactly how toast feels. Forget analyzing filings and financials, they mean NOTHING in OTC's, you'll only trick yourself into false hope, that "this is the big one." The big one works two ways, it's called WIHAD (Wish I Had A Do-over) - don't get caught, friends.
Work the trade. I bought 20 M LIBE in June for less than 0001, when no one wanted it, at .0000, no bid/no ask, and made a handful on the pump. LIBE's big day already happened. It's now the morning after. Consider you want to wake up next to.
"Better to sell and wish I hadn't, than to hold and wish I had."
-Oracle, 2019
Happy trading!
There's still time before the split to lower your cost basis, no need to sit and wait. If you enter the split with all shares under 0002 cost basis, you should be able to get out completely right away on the split open. If you're high now, trade down while the stock is still active, lower your cost basis, it doesn't cost anything.
Happy trades!
GXXM-3M shares buy at 001 - comment
I wouldn't read much into the "3 million shares at 001" anomaly. It appears to be an accidental trader buy at the wrong price on thier order ticket. If you examine at the chart, they immediately followed up with another 3 million order, at 0001, to correct their "high buy" error. An expensive goof, however, as their cost basis is now .00055 - If not an error, that is commitment.
However, nice to see people showing interest in GXXM again!
Happy trading!
GXXM sub-0001's
The sub-0001's are simply MMs unloading inventory they don't need, for the transaction fee for fills (.00026/per $100 of orders processed), which adds up to millions every year. They'll always sell off extra inventory fast to keep those transaction fees coming, especially when a stock is slow. Completely normal stuff.
MMs don't lose money selling to you under .0001 because they own it under .0001 to start with (several ways that happens, a long explanation). Why they're doing it has nothing to do with the stock or anything going on with the company, including any news or any split. The MM is just overstocked.
What happens when it's under .0001 and I bid .0001?
What'll happen is you'll get some shares under .0001, not a lot, not a game changer, (usually .00005-.000098), and some at .0001. Essentially they'll throw you a few bones for buying when business is slow for them.
Happy trading!
Go early, RRaul, the line's pretty long.
THE MEANING OF REVENUES
Large revenues do not indicate positive cash flow, they can be a gross (before expenses), and without knowing what the net is (income after expenses), there's no way to tell if LIBE is making money or running up debt on sales (we've all sold off shares to liquify assets, to buy time for the next trade, no?)
Never base trades on OTC revenues, the companies are scraping by, that's how they got here. Tesla has revenues in the billions, yet loses $600 MM per year. Tesla has never made a profit. They're still in business because investing institutions are making their money financing Tesla, governments, who are funded by their taxpayers, stay in office by subsidizing Tesla with "green" jobs for the locals, a PR move. Tesla investors get a tax a deduction for their green investment, so the machine chugs along, everybody smiles. A win-win.
Since even a Profit and Loss Statement can be manipulated for tax benefits, I wouldn't speculate on what any filing means, especially on an OTC. Trade based only on what is in front of you.
The Pig and the Farmer
Summary
Don't get tricked into financial analysis, unless you have a a degree in it, in which there's money more in it that than trading OTC's. Be sure what you are looking at, it's not to be found in anything LIBE knows you can see. Your job is trade on your numbers, your business plan, not theirs.
Happy trades!
"The pig and the farmer both ate a wonderful breakfast, only one had lunch."
-Oracle, 2019
WATCHING YOUR MONEY DISAPPEAR
You don't have to wait till the RS to watch your money disappear. A reverse split does little to change that. If you bought above the split price, it already happened, you were the star witness. It was a bad buy, they guy the mirror told you to do it.
Reverse Split Downside
RS's only dry up the chance for a big uptick, that's it, no boogey man under the bed. We've all bought duds, so onto the next trade. RS's don't cause you to lose money, unless you hold long after, in which case, time to have a another chat with the guy in the mirror. There are plenty of ways to get your money back, including other good 0001's.
Happy trading!
REGULAR BUSINESS
GXXM's stock is actually already in regular business mode, nothing new, easy to see, provided you know what you're looking at and understand the OTC business model. Pink sheets always hit the floor eventually, they got here in the first place because the company was in straights. That doesn't matter, and it doesn't mean you can't make money if you own it all at 0001. If you own it high, you didn't spot it as a 0001 and made a bad buy.
If you are pouring over and financials and filings, you're burning out unnecessarily, swimming against a rip current. Recognize it and swim laterally, there's nothing to fret over. Triple 0001's all work exactly the same way. This is regular business.
Regular Business
MMs are working the stock the exact same way they always work 0001's. The "no bids / no ask" is simply because everyone who wants "in" has already been filled, nothing more. Without news, MMs have nothing to work with, and with new traders on the sidelines, MMs work other stocks while GXXM sits in flatline mode.
MMs work stocks in terms of months, years. None of us control the news. If GXXM pumps on news, we'll all do well. If GXXM reverse splits, no big deal, manage your exit, then work then next trade.
Bottom Line
As long as GXXM or any other 0001 company stays in business, MMs will continue to work the stock, even though it flatlines for very long, long periods of time.
Happy trading!
LIBE REVERSE SPLIT - makes sense
If LIBE wants the stock up, a RS adds value for the Company, by washing out 000 traders and replacing them by attracting a new base of people who view the stock as of a higher tier. It removes"the 000 stigma" from their image. Whatever the motive, since triple 000 traders won't stick around, the company image gets a fresh coat of paint. Rather than try to divine anything, cash out or ride it, but do your job, work the next trade.
At 1/2000, it's .50 cents for each point (starting at 0001), at the close, which looks like this.
RS close - - - - - Resulting New Open
.0001 - - - - - - - - - - .50 cents
.0002 - - - - - - - - - - $1.00
.0003 - - - - - - - - - - $1.50
.0004 - - - - - - - - - - $2.00
Investors
If you're in it long, it's your stated belief by doing so that you believe it's a good, safe company, an investment, not a trade, that will go up. Be honest with yourself. If that's what you believe, a RS should be good news, as it may help LIBE secure new financing or business endeavors.
Traders
If you owned it at 0001 or low and sold, you won. If you bought high because you didn't play it as a 0001 pump, DD was lacking. Study your buys, find the next one, execute better. There are several good 0001 flips out there to work you account up with.
Reverse Split
Fretting about 000 reverse splits is useless, especially when you have advance warning. Filings don't matter in 000 stocks, the companies got there for a reason. If a RS helps them turn it around, more power to them. It's just business.
If you sell fast at the open, you'll get out with 90% or more of what your shares were worth at the split. If you bought at 0001 and it splits at 0002, you'll make money on the split. If you bought at 0002 and it splits at 0001, you'll lose. If it's a losing trade, it's always the Buy, not the Sell.
Happy trading to all!
Only if it cause a pump!
A pump will only occur if they've generated new business, which could be happening, but not within a Q Report. A PR based on a Q Report would only contain "foreward looking statements," to protect themselves legally with the SEC.
That's not to say that new business may or may not be in the works, just that if it were, it wouldn't show up in a Q Report, unless money has already changed hands - deposits, loans, revenues. If so, great, if not, then reduction of debt or expenses is good, but since fiscal responsibity is expected business behavior, meeting that expectation wouldn't create an uptick.
A "new business" PR can come at any point, and will be when you least expect it. That's the biggest bang for the buck.
Once new business is realized (an actual signed contract), there's the pump. For a genuine pump, the logical usual strategy is to have a positive PR "foreward statement" on a "pending deal" (that they already signed behind curtains), to generate interest. Then roll it out a week or so later, while everyone's still watching, with a big, "GXXM Makes Deal" PR announcement. Boom!
Go GXXM!
DGTW News - the wait
At this moment, DGTW daily asks/bids and volume mean nothing. It's just the wind blowing, a few traders dabbling, kicking tires. What's really happening is basic triple 000 structure in practice, nothing to worry over, but to understand.
Why did DGTW fall to 0001?
All stocks get walked down, and up. The long period since news means the stock will get walked down, that's just the reality. MMs need to make money. Since they make money going down as much as up, with no news, they take it down.
Why the "crickets" at .0001?
When stocks get down to 0001, they go flat for long periods because of no news. With nothing to work with, MM's unload extra shares, interested traders get filled. From then on, it just a wait for news. (*People think this dump is dilution. Dilution happens earlier, gradually, at higher prices, not at the bottom. The bottom dump is about downsizing inventory and volume for transaction fees, where the big institution $$'s are, like with banks.
If you own it at 0001, holding long for news on a company that pumps with news is smart. Do DD to decide if DGTW does. If a 0001 pumps, expect a plus 2-3 (.0003-4), if you get more, great.
Good luck!
MARATHON NEWS - discussion
Marathon is a software company (hot sector), which supplies POS interfacing software and marketing services.
Their CBD site is a pet project on the side, likely a bartered a distributorship deal to have their own CBD site on spec, nothing to judge the stock on. Low volume on a spec site (not Marathon's main business) is nothing to worry about. The Sept. 5 news on their website didn't move PDPR shares, that's okay, wouldn't expect it to. It's new marketing and software contracts that always moves the PDPR stock up.
Marathon puts out regular news, a good sign, their stock responds to it well, a great sign. The last big spike was May 15. If summer was slow, they may just be just drumming up new business with nothing in ink yet.
If you own it low, holding long for news on a company that pumps with news is smart. It'll jump. That's the proven Marathon fundamental since 2005. Why the stock's flat is easy: a little dilution, interested traders filled, everyone's waiting for news. Classic, no big deal. Daily volume's just the wind blowing. Soon as Marathon cuts a deal, they'll announce, always have, and away we go. Plenty of other "short play" stocks around in the meantime.
Good luck!
You're in good shape at .0001
Hope you make a mint!
The "house" wins on gambles. Always make a trades by plan. Plans can constantly improve, luck always runs out.
But your plan sounds great!
Daveywavey1 and Chap 80:
Daveywavey1:
The price could actually go to a full $1.00 or more on a .0001 reverse. You still won't make money, as everything has been re-proportioned. They'll want you to stay in, to build the the brand new base of traders at that level. No! Never speculate on splits, period, unless you're in a generous mood.
Don't believe it?
XDSL was a .0001, it reverse split (5/21/19) - (see otcmarkets.com-Security Details-Splits) at 5000:1, price $1 at the new open - now it's .71 cents, (-29%). Hey, where's my wallet? ...From rags to more rags.
Chap 80 :
MM's make more money walking a stock down than walking it up. That's why pumps are fast, walk downs are slow. Spreading dillution over time, as they go, without letting you know, is how they make a little extra along the way. Why so many delinquent filings all the time everywhere? Bingo! They don't have to update the float. All about the Bejamins.
Daveywavey1:
Putting your sell in advance, even if you know the split ratio, is a bad idea. It gives MM's the advantage of seeing your hand before the open, to adjust which way to quickly run the stock, make more money off of you, and anyone else who has done the same. It does not put you "first in line" to sell, that doesn't exist in pink sheets.
Contrary to belief, OTC MM's decide manually who to fill, there's a human at the screen. Always keep that in mind. Despite technology, a computer doesn't know how to psych people out like a human. OTC MM's only switch to automated when the pace of a moment risks losing sales to other MM's. Or lunch.
Unfortunately, to "ride and execute" properly, you will have to be at the screen at the open. Otherwise, you've left your cards and money on the table and walked off whistling to use the men's room.
At the split, the open price starts at the target price, where the company wants the price to be. The ratio is then reverse engineered to match that. The ratio's only a rumor until actually executed. At that point, MM's have met their obligation to the company and can do whatever they want with the price.
Don't worry about the ratio. Regardless of the ratio, your job is the same. Don't hold because you like the ratio, let others buy because they like the ratio. If you hesitate, you'll get to know how toast feels. At the split open, regardless of ratio, everyone will get "equal value" for what they put in. Equal value will be based on .0001, so you will need to keep a calculator handy.
There's A Formula
Fortunately, your math is easy.
Your .0025 cost basis puts the value of your shares to 40 cents to the dollar before, meaning you entered the split already down 60% (-6K), for which you don't get credit. You already know that. As a result, you'll get credit 4K as the split happens.
In your specific case, because this calculation is based on everyone's individual cost basis, to calculate your actual losses and break even, you need to multiply the new open price by a factor of 2.5 to know your breakeven (get the 10K back).
If it opens at .10 cents, you'll need it to hit .25 cents, if it opens at $1.00, you'll need $2.50 - a 250% uptick on a RS. Sadly, pigs will fly with turds that taste like honey before that ever happens. Execute proper damage control and get out.
Conclusion
Essentially, if you cash out before the split at .0001, you'll get $4K back. If you properly exit the split in the first 30, you'll likely get $3800 back, +/-, based on speculators and luck. If you hold now and it pumps, you can get the whole 10K back or more. If you ride the split and get out fast, there are safe techniques to turn the $3800 back into the original 10K.
.00025 GXXM POSITION
Daveywavey1 :
.0025 is a position close enough to "all .0001" to be treated the same. Focus on what you control (your decisions), not what you don't (GEX behavior).
Decide - commit - execute.
1) Decide "In" (hold) or "Out" (sell)
If holding (sounds like your plan), decide ASAP whether to downsize the position or not. With 40m, easier to do at .0001 (4K) than .00025 (10K), so I get it. Stay with your gut, but start downsizing by Thanksgiving if you change your mind.
2) Risk / Reward
Big gain on the pump, vs.
Expectable 20% loss if you ride the split.
After The Split
*The best time to sell on a RS is in the first 30 minutes on the split Open (9:30-10am). It's the only time you can make / get out even / or mange losses to under 20%. The Open is the only time there are a small number of new speculators buying. They'll get filled by 10am, it's all down from there.
If you accept the 20% risk and execute the 30 minute rule, you'll get what you expect. I've actually made money in the first 30, never after. Don't expect or hope to. Never "hold for the day" on a RS, it goes bad to worse. The risk strategy is "a controlled burn."
TEX0717 :
"I'm sorry but anytime a company is raising the share count to 100 BILLION then they are hurting."
From Oracle:
Heavy investors often make businesses "hurt" on purpose, on paper.
If one of your businesses made you a million dollars this year, giving you a tax bill of $200,000 (20%) because of your profits, but you could make another business show a loss that offset that gain on paper so you would have to pay $0 tax for that year, would you do it?
It could be helpful financially to the principals for the GXXM to show weakness for their current fiscal year. It's what banks and big investors do with Tesla, which loses millions every single year.
Scenarios
1) This group or may not actually need to make money with GXXM, based on what the portfolio of all their business need, to balance things out.
2) They could also have mismanaged things, be devious, or
3) could have taken a few business lumps and are genuinely trying to right the ship.
4) If your business is in financial straights, you can often negotiate a greatly reduced settlement (Offer In Compromise) with the IRS. Perhaps GXXM foresees tax debts they need off their back to acquire new money or financing, something impossible to do with a Tax Lien, if one is looming ahead. Fixing the company before a settlement would ruin their chance of getting a settlement, but the IRS will settle to keep a company going and in the tax base. Applications for such a settlement would not become public record until an Offer In Comprise were executed.
We don't know what the play is, not enough actual data, only perceptions. Interestingly, they've taken the unusual step of giving a heads up of a possible reverse split. I think we'll all be surprised as this "who dunnit?" unfolds before our eyes.
GXXM VIRTUAL OFFICE
An alternative reality for your consideration...
If GEX's only legally presented full-time employees are its principal insiders (GEX has six), their staffing/headhunting services are low-volume, can be provided through private contacts and personal referrals, why would they carry the expense of a full time office they don't need and rarely use?
Headhunting is a commission based business, based on placement, erratic at times, an office doesn't help because the people you are staffing don't care because they'll never work there. If you can land them the job they want, they don't care if you work out of a shoebox. They just want privacy, because...
More importantly...
Specialized headhunters are low key, they're often asked by IT people who already have good jobs, to see what else is out there, exploring options. Clients don't want to be outed by walking into a staffing agency with a sign on the door. Not cool. They'd rather interview at Starbucks, a virtual office, or someone's home to remain discreet.
Look from any angle you like. A virtual office provides no provable conclusion in itself. Here's another possibility, which actually exists. I know very successful headhunters, doctors, and psychologists, all with nice private home offices and second homes. Headhunters prefer to interview clients wherever they are comfortable. It's about privacy.
Conclusion
No one except insiders know GEX intentions at this moment, only their options. Don't let their office set up concern you, it doesn't explain anything. Zilch. The only thing it tells me is they control expenses and figured out how not to sit in Dallas traffic every day. Both pretty smart.
I think of the six blind men, who each speculated differently with incomplete evidence...us
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blind_men_and_an_elephant
GXXM INSIDERS FINANCIAL NEEDS
Only insiders know what the actual financial needs within GEX are. Maximum benefit to insiders can be extracted in a variety of ways. Partners with enough resources and savvy to be listed on a stock exchange may not actually need a short term payout.
The stock may be down, but that doesn't mean they are hurting. Corporations are carefully constructed to manage and control investor gains in ways not always clear or that make sense from the outside. Moves are usually to offset other investments, mainly to spread out tax liabilities.
Tesla has never made a profit, it loses $600m/year, yet stays in business because the write off benefits their financiers, incredibly a "win-win."
Assuming the insiders need to get paid right now doesn't take into account that the controlling insider may not need the money today or even in the next three years. They may have a have a different goal.
Alternatively, if a single wealthy investor owns 51% of the voting stock, which is normal, as majority corporate Member, they control all decisions, despite what the other 79 Shareholders of Record want or need. The 79 other Shareholders would have known that when they signed on, though they may/may not agree with GEX decisions. If 79 of the 80 voting Members want to get paid but the 51-percenter isn't ready, guess who wins. I'm sure Bill Gates, Jeff Besos and Warren Buffet make it clear who gets last word.
Because insiders have more skin in the game, they will always take a longer view than outside traders. What suits them best could be measured in years, not weeks or months, like traders. In China, many government decisions are based on decades.
Whatever the motivation, the controlling Member has a plan to be revealed when it benefits him most. Non-voting Shareholders are not the concern, but as the title suggests, all receive what they sign up for.
GXXM MERGER PENDING or not has several components.
1) The structure of any merger with a second entity and whether to reverse split or not depends entirely upon the current financial needs of both entities, which public filings do not show, if you have a good accountant. If there's no big gain, there's no merge.
2) The shared goal of the entities could be either to strengthen the financial balance sheet of either or both if they are seeking capital at the time of the merger, or to weaken the surface financial appearance (including stock price up or down) for internal financial reasons. It's why GE pays very little in taxes.
3) Strengthening financial appearance is used to improve capital when an actual tangible uptick is projected in revenues, not pie in the sky, like "forward looking statements," which give a stock a boost for a bit as "news," but PR's don't fool lending institutions. Their lobbies aren't marble because they're stupid.
4) Weakening financials is how a company spreads expenses and defers taxes across the desired fiscal year(s).
5) Unless you're an insider, you cannot know GEX's intentions. All their data and filings can be used for either goal. That's on purpose, to keep their plans under wraps. It's all about the voting members pockets, not the traders.
6) Merges are rare. If one is pending, GEX Mgmt will keep it completely a secret until it happens. No exception, because like an IPO, that's how merging companies get the biggest bang, raise the most $$, for the merge.
7) GEX already knows everything you can possibly see in their filings, so filings are drafted in a way to only show the public GEX's options, without having to disclose their intentions.
8) Trust your gut, if it feels right, stay. If not, go. At least GEX Mgmt has done the courtesy of stating that a RS is possible.
We can swap one-liners, but there's no actual news until there's actual news.
Ask is 260 M shares. Remember, Level 2 is showing you market maker asks, not the actions of John Q. Public. Market maker BUYS do not show on Level 2. If they want to accumulate your shares, they make Level 2 look dismal.