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Nah... wasn't it Mark Twain that said; history doesn't repeat itself - it rhymes? This won't be over soon, not by a long shot - not unless they suspend democratic elections anytime soon.
regards,
Frank P.
You'd think with the amount of intervention by governments around the world - that a couple of years could very well be ten or so years.
Regards,
Frank P.
no they don't -- two things I will miss if I ever abandon SI is the "ignore" and the "exclusion" features -- I'm hoping they'll reconsider their positions on this.
Regards,
Frank P.
Hi Peter... just remember that we are in summer drilling season - you hold the babies through this period and sell'em hard in the fall when access to their properties are put in limbo due to environmental regulations.
Anyway, I've got a good feeling about this one - so keep a close eye on her...
Regards,
Frank P.
Peter, for the first time since the beginning of civilisation - the biotech index is following the broad markets. Now why is that? Could it be accounting problems? Personally I wouldn't touch this sector until we see two things; one, capitulation ... two, J&J buying up the juniors ten at a time. I'm thinking consolidation in this sector is the inevitable bottom.
Regards,
Frank P.
Zeev -- right on! I think SI has taken us for granted by bombarding its paid membership with banner adds and pop-ups. Anyway, I will visit from time to time.
Best,
Frank P.
a new analyst report for the month of July:
http://www.westerncopper.com/analysts/analysts_proteus_02_07.pdf
Regards,
Frank P.
Nah... I think we should call it "as the world burns" :)
Regards,
Frank P.
lol! I'm actually following this too ... kinda like a soap opera, eh?
Regards,
Frank P.
lol!!!
excellent... not another word from me... :)
Regards,
Frank P.
Hey Matt, and what about MMMARY? Question; how can somebody who's only 19 years of age have an agenda????? and even if you did, what could it possibly be? (other than women and beer)
Regards,
Frank P.
Hi Peter, thanks for the link - I've never heard this guy speak before. Love those little stories... :)
-
I got to say these last couple of days have been truly amazing - just when you think that capitalism was coming to an abrupt end the market moves in the opposite direction.
If this isn't manipulation I don't know what is - but I can't believe the banks are still being called a "strong buy" with all this corruption. JPM finished up the day at 4% and the Canadian banks are no slouches either - TD was also up 3% and the CIBC? A whopping 6% ??!!??
Hmmm...
Regards,
Frank P.
Do you have a chart to prove that? :)
Regards,
Frank P.
g'day Bob... nice PR from Cumberland today -- I might be lucky enough to keep what I made yesterday - I think... :) I guess this little bounce was to be expected there's only so many sellers around - and I'm sure they must be exhausted from all that liquidation.
Regards,
Frank P.
PALM????? Oh no! Say it isn't so... I guess that little market turnaround was worth cashing in on eh? I've noticed these little turn arounds are getting shorter and shorter - any specific reason for this one to be different?
Regards,
Frank P.
BTW, if you don't mind me asking, how long did they jail you for at S.I.?
Hey Bob... I like that idea, "GOLD" in the name thingie ... It'll probably work. :)
Regards,
Frank P.
Hi KC ... thanks for the link -- geez... some of those rocks look kinda big - how much money would all of that cost?
Looks like the gold stocks are moving up in anticipation of another big move in the POG - are you ready to rrrrumble?
Regards,
Frank P.
Bob... the "keep" feature is excellent, thanks for pointing that one out ... I still would like the "moderated" feature that's available on SI for the "club" boards like the Strictly Drilling thread - being able to discriminate is what a club is all about, no?
As for getting a larger membership - you need the superstar posters like Zeev, SliderOnTheBlack and Heinz Blasnik - you might bend the rules a little to get them on board.
...and you are correct about a specific forum for suggestions and new features to make IHub a better place - a "What About Bob" forum?
Regards,
Frank P.
...ok, spill the beans - what neat feature?
Regards,
Frank P.
Argle, I don't know if extending a small feature like the "next 10" to the free zone would attract the masses from SI -- critical mass...
Regards,
Frank P.
Argle... just find a thread with a few more messages ahead of the one you're reading here now and you'll notice some fancy words to the top right hand of the text box; "NEXT TEN."
Regards,
Frank P.
Am finding the lack of viewing 10 msgs at a time annoying
Changing Preferences
The Velocity of Money & The Short Seller's Nightmare
by James J. Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/oldupdates/2002/0614.htm
** Don Coxe For This Week
RealMedia:
http://207.61.47.20:8080/ramgen/archivestream/dcoxe.rm
The loonie's new tune
DONALD COXE
Last week, I raised the question of the possible onset of a good news/bad news bear market -- the U.S. dollar. The dollar's slide since January has been good news for Canadians, Australians and Europeans, and has been bad news for holders of U.S. stocks and bonds.
How did the U.S. dollar get so overvalued that it could be subject to a major bear market? In large measure, the dollar's overvaluation was a side effect of the financial excesses of the 1990s. The dollar benefited big time from the tech stock boom, as investors worldwide poured money into the U.S. to get in on the greatest bull market of all time. America had the best technology, the best investment banks, the best media, and the best economic and political environment. Naturally, these superlatives meant the U.S. had the best currency. What is a currency but a paper encapsulation of a nation's economic, political and financial accomplishments?
Nor was the foreign ardour for U.S. assets confined to stocks. The stronger the dollar got, and the more prestigious Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan became, the more foreign investors wanted to acquire U.S. bonds.
So great was this shared enthusiasm that global investors chose to ignore the obvious: the U.S. had the industrial world's lowest savings rate, and the world's largest trade deficits. U.S. manufacturing was engaged in outsourcing on an unheard-of scale because it was so broadly uncompetitive. The greenback was the IOU of a nation that had made an art form of the lifestyle of living beyond one's means.
In recent weeks, global investors have begun an agonizing reappraisal of their U.S. risks. They are heavily weighted in U.S. stocks -- and the U.S. has been the worst-performing of major markets. They find themselves heavily weighted in U.S. bonds whose coupon rates don't cover the depreciation in the U.S. currency since January, let alone what could lie ahead. U.S. short-term interest rates are in the two per cent range -- lower than virtually anywhere except semi-comatose Japan. A two percentage point rise in the euro wipes out a year's income at these trivial rates.
Global institutional investors tend to think currency first, stock valuations second. They know that a big currency move can wipe out whatever edge they might have achieved through good luck or good stock-picking. They also know their clients are acutely aware of currency swings. That recognition was a reason managers kept pouring more money into U.S. stocks even when they complained that the U.S. was by far the most expensive stock market in the world: in traders' jargon, they were skated onside by the currency. Now, with the softening U.S. dollar, they find themselves skating toward open water.
They are already cutting back sharply on new inflows into U.S. assets. The real pain for the dollar will come if they get scared and start to become sellers. The need to finance the $1.7-billion-a-day current account deficit then becomes an overarching problem for the global financial system.
What's bad news for greenbacks is good news for loonies. The Canadian dollar didn't deserve its recent, ignominious valuation. The nation was already recovering from its long years of folly, and it had a new central bank governor who was tough, smart and candid about what made economies tick and currencies perform. If it hadn't been for the last, orgiastic rush into the U.S. dollar, the loonie would never have gotten to 62 cents (and the euro would never have gotten down to 84 cents).
The most obvious effect of the dollar's descent to date is the new global enthusiasm for gold. Gold usually trades inversely to the value of the dollar -- the currency that replaced it as the store of value at Bretton Woods 58 years ago. Should the dollar's decline become a rout, gold will soar.
Foreigners are stepping up their purchases of Canadian equities, wanting to get relatively cheap stocks in a very cheap currency. That process takes a long time to build momentum, because Canada is a small, somewhat overlooked market. But Canada's weight in global stock indices has begun to rise as Canadian stocks outperform U.S. stocks and the loonie surfaces. That process eventually becomes self-reinforcing as even more foreigners rush to load up on the new North American winning investments. Canadian stocks give foreigners access to the U.S. economy at lower price-earnings ratios and in a stronger currency. The Toronto Stock Exchange should be one of the world's best stock markets in the next year.
Naturally, Canadians are the last to believe the worm has turned. A leading Canadian economist recently described his investment strategy as "getting the hell out of Canada into the U.S.," a pronouncement that offers new evidence that economists rarely make capable investment advisers.
In the currency world, what goes down drives something else up.
Plan on a bargain southern vacation next winter.
Donald Coxe is chairman of Harris Investment Management in Chicago and of Toronto-based Jones Heward Investments.
http://www.macleans.ca/xta-asp/storyview.asp?viewtype=search&tpl=search_frame&edate=2002/06/...
KC... have you seen this site?
http://www.diamondplay.com/
Regards,
Frank P.
** It's Silver's Time to Shine
Interview by Donna Guzik
The demand for silver both as an industrial material and as a precious metal seems to be on the rise which could send the price of this often ignored commodity soaring says Pan American Silver Chairman & CEO Ross Beaty
Summary
Pan American Silver (PASS-Nasdaq),(TSX:PAA)is a mining company based in Vancouver, BC.
Pan American controls silver reserves and resources in Peru, Mexico, Russia, Bolivia, Montana, California and Arizona totaling more than 613 million ounces.
The price of silver has been volatile over the past year plunging to a 26 year low of $4.23 an ounce, but recently reaching a two year high of $5.13.
Pan American's average cost to produce an ounce of silver was $3.84 in Q1.
Silver is tied to two things, demand for industrial use, and for investment as a precious metal.
As an industrial metal, it's heavily impacted by world industrial production.
As a precious metal there is a renewed sentiment towards precious metals by investors.
In the last three years China has dumped silver on to the world market by selling surplus mine production and silver inventories which has help to depress the price of silver.
Pan American Silver is trying to encourage the domestic Chinese market to buy silver, so there is not so much of it floating in the world market.
One way to encourage silver into the domestic market is to advertise the marketing of Chinese jewelry and silverware.
India right now drives the silver market from the standpoint of silverware and jewelry, they are the largest silver consumer, it is used as wealth and as an adornment.
The problems in Kashmir with Pakistan has probably increased the appetite of having silver as a tangible investment, it will always be saleable.
In Pan American Silver's latest quarter earnings, Q1 net losses were $1.5 million compared to $4.4 million for Q4 2001 as a result of cost cutting measures.
PanAmerican prides themselves on being the purest silver producers worldwide.
Beaty is optimistic that silver prices will rise this year as demand for silver as an industrial and a precious metal increases.
http://www.investorcanada.com/interview.php?contentID=949
KC, sorry to hear about the losses... but it can't be as bad as some of the people that call the business radio programs and say they bought Nortel at $60. "Is this the bottom?"
TIGHT STOPS!!! -- I normally allow 20% with juniors and 10% to 15% on big caps before I throw in the towel. If I can't make money from the get-go -- I'm out.
Regards,
Frank P.
** THE PAPER AGE
by John Myers
In my 17th year I spent the summer working with our neighbor Mr. Lynch. Our project: to encircle a quarter section of land with rail fences.
Lionel Lynch had the best stories. He was a World War II Veteran and a self-made millionaire. He was also an old- time farmer who drove a beat-up Ford truck. Riding along in the truck he used to tell me about the landing at Normandy beach, the push through France and a German sniper's bullet that missed his heart by inches. I remember asking and then being allowed to see the scar.
One windless day in August, the sun was grueling. Mr. Lynch drove the claws of his hammer into a post and said, "Time for a break." He went to the back of his pick-up and threw-off the gunny-sack that was covering a gallon of Mrs. Lynch's homemade iced tea. We sat on the hood of the truck and old Lionel surveyed the rolling tide of ripening wheat fields that stretched to the foothills.
He dug into his greasy coveralls and reached for his zigzag papers and a pouch of tobacco. Within seconds he had fashioned a cigarette, snapped a match to life from his boot and inhaled a big drag.
"This is a wonderful land we live in," said Mr. Lynch. "And they ain't making anymore of it."
It may not have seemed that way during the 1980s when the rolling recession plowed a deep gouge into farmland prices. In Alberta a section of land that would grab $1,000 in 1980 would fetch only half of that a few years later. It was the same throughout North America where not only land, but hard assets across the board fell into steep retreat.
Metals - base, precious and strategic - dropped precipitously in the 1980s, as did grains, cotton and almost everything else from hogs to coffee. The CRB Index of commodities fell by almost a third between 1980 and 1985.
The age of paper had arrived and it seemed not only profitless, but downright stupid, to hold anything else.
Beginning with a broad rebound in the Blue Chips in the 1980s and continuing with the NASDAQ in the 1990s, the stock market was the only game in town. At silver's high in 1980, nine ounces of the white metal would buy you a single share of the Dow Industrials. By 1999 you needed a wheelbarrow to carry 2000 ounces of silver to buy one share in the Dow.
Yet, something very strange has been happening over the past couple of years. The stock market has staggered, while hard assets have been moving up slowly but surely.
So what exactly is happening? I think I have the answer, and it relates back to that summer's day with Mr. Lynch.
A few years later, economics professors in big auditoriums using fancy charts and complex names would teach it to me. But it was the same lesson, one of supply and demand. As the supply of anything grows, from apples to atom-busters, the price of it falls. Now this is where it gets interesting.
The only thing that has been really growing by gangbusters over the past 10 years is paper...money, US dollars.
In 1992 M3, a broad-based measure of dollars, stood at $4.2 trillion. Currently M3 totals about $8.1 trillion dollars, or almost double what it was a decade ago. If we take the much smaller measure of currency in circulation we see that during the same period it has grown from $267 billion to a shade under $600 billion. That's correct, there are more than twice as many greenbacks circulating in the world today as there were 10 years ago.
Now let's compare that to the amount of gold in the world. Each year miners deliver about 50 million new ounces of gold from the ground. That adds about one-half of one percent to the world's total reserve of gold. Roughly speaking, the amount of above-ground gold has grown from 9.5 billion ounces to 10 billion ounces over the last ten years. That means while the number of dollars has doubled in a decade the amount of gold has risen by only 5%!
To give you an idea of how much gold is produced each year: the entire annual harvest could be put into an 18- square-foot cube. The cold hard truth is that gold supplies are growing at less than 1/10th the rate of the U.S. money supply.
It is the same for almost every commodity. Water is in critically short supply, as is arable land. That means that repeating the Green Revolution of the 1950s and '60s is all but impossible. World grain farmland increased until 1980. It has been on a steady decline since. The reason? Take your pick - soil erosion, waterlogging and salting of irrigated land, air pollution and water shortages.
Less water, less food, and, it seems, fewer mineral deposits.
Paul van Eeden, a stockbroker at Global Resource Investments, understands the growing scarcity of hard assets. "Let's look at an example of depletion and discovery. Worldwide copper consumption is about 33 billion pounds per year," writes Paul. "To put that in perspective, the biggest copper mines in the world contain on the order of 20 to 30 billion pounds of copper, which means that our annual consumption depletes the equivalent of one major copper deposit a year."
The drawdown in global mineral reserves has resulted in mineral companies slashing their exploration budgets. According to the Metals Economics Group, total worldwide nonferrous exploration was $5.2 billion in 1997.
But mineral exploration expenditures declined by 29% in 1998, 24% in 1999 and another 7% in 2000. That brings the total exploration expenditure at the beginning of the millennium to only $2.6 billion, 50% of what it was only three years prior. Mineral exploration is not keeping up with the historical norm.
Demand for hard assets is soaring. The Developing World is bent on creating its own Industrial Revolution. That means massive amounts of raw materials are needed.
For example, if China were to pursue "an automotive economy" similar to the US as they proposed in 1994, there would be a resource boom like no other we've see in history. "If the Chinese were to drive as many per capita passenger miles as Americans currently do each year," Benjamin R. Barber in the book Jihad vs. McWorld "it would take only five years to use up all the earth's known energy reserves."
In my book, a soaring demand for natural resources of every variety in the face of dwindling supplies coupled with an avalanche of paper dollars makes up a very simple equation. And if Mr. Lynch were still around today, I believe he would come to a similar commonsense conclusion - the value of hard assets is set to soar against a sorry U.S. dollar.
Yours for opportunity,
John Myers,
for The Daily Reckoning
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/
KC, howzit going... has Mr. Market stopped you out of anything yet? A couple of my favs are holding up well in this latest heartbreak .... Anooraq (ARQ.V) First Point Minerals (FPX.V) and Western Copper Holdings (WTC.TO)
Here's an interesting story on the possible upcoming shortages in the metals:
Molybdenum price panic continues, market soars
By Martin Hayes
LONDON, June 5 (Reuters) - The unprecedented rise in molybdenum prices continued in Europe on Wednesday, with a panicky market soaring to levels last seen over seven years ago, amid a scramble for scarce supplies.
Traders said a welter of production cuts and curtailments at major copper producers in North and South America and reduced Chinese exports have had an involuntary impact on molybdenum, which is a by-product metal.
"There are just no concentrates around -- it is a real shortage here," one UK trader said.
"No-one can say with any certainty what the price should be - it changes a couple of dollars in a few hours," a trader in Europe said.
Molybdenum oxide (MLY-OXIDE-LON), which is used mainly as an alloying additive in steel production to enhance strength and corrosion resistance, was around the $8.00/9.00/lb on Wednesday, the highest since April 1995.
Oxide values have risen some $3.00 from late last week, having been as low as $2.25 a lb in late 2001.
Western origin ferro-molybdenum (MLY-FERRO-LON) is also around the highest since April 1995 at $18.00/19.00/kilo.
COPPER CUTBACKS RESPONSIBLE
Western output has been hit by both reduced production from primary mines and less by-product availability from copper miners who reduced output late last year in the face of a weak copper market.
By-product molybdenum accounts for around 60 to 70 percent of total output.
There was a spate of production cuts in 2001 by major copper producers, which was followed by a period when there were no major output curbs.
Over the last week, however, BHP/Billiton (London:BLT.L - News) has cut output by 80,000 tonnes at its majority owned Escondida copper mine in Chile, Grupo Mexico has said it will shut operations at its Cananea copper unit, cutting 150,000 tonnes in annual output, while a power blackout caused by an intense snowstorm in Chile halted copper production at the Los Bronces mine, owned by a unit of Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM - News).
Demand has held up relatively well, meanwhile, as molybdenum is used in aircraft, missile, and automobile parts, and in electrodes and heating elements. There are few acceptable substitutes.
The powerful price rally has led to stockbrokers reconsidering their ratings for Phelps Dodge (NYSE:PD - News), which is the world's largest producer of molybdenum.
J.P. Morgan trimmed its loss per share estimate to $1.40 per share from $1.65, leaving its "buy" rating unchanged.
Meanwhile, Merrill Lynch analyst Daniel Roling raised his mid-term rating from "reduce/sell" to "neutral".
"As a result of a significant increase to our molybdenum price expectations, we are raising our estimates for 2002 from a loss of $2.75 per share to a loss of $2.20 per share. We are also raising our 2003 earnings estimate from $1.40 per share to $1.80 per share," he wrote.
(Additional reporting by New York Newsdesk and New York Raw Materials Desk)
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020605/markets_metals_molybdenum_1.html
** The Smartest Money
David Morgan -- Precious Metals Analyst
www.silver-investor.com
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/morgan052902.htm
** The Next Big Mining Play
Interview by Robert Graham
The Botwood Basin in Newfoundland will be the next big exploration site because of its grab bag of resources and its mining friendly environment says Canaccord Capital Senior Vice President Peter Chandler
ALTIUS MINERALS CP (V.ALS)
MOYDOW MINES INTL INC (T.MOY)
RUBICON MINERALS CP (V.RMX)
SUDBURY CONTACT MINES LTD (T.SUD)
* The Botwood Basin, in Newfoundland, is considered an Offlite Complex; which means that due to significant swings in temperatures, it is geologically speaking, a mixed bag ready to explore.
* It is also a good place to explore, because Newfoundland is generally considered a mining friendly environment, they have a particular easy way of staking mining claims.
* It's called map staking, you pay your money and you stake your claim.
* Companies like Altius minerals, receive validation by acting as a junior for Barrick Gold.
* Barrick has a right to earn a 75% interest in their Botwood Basin project.
* This is a good partnership because it opens the flood gates; you've got a smart junior backed by a big playing senior.
* Other places staking claims in the Botwood Basin are Sudbury Contact Mines, Moydow Mines and Consolidated Abaddon.
* Chandler would not be surprised to see a lot these companies creating joint operations in this region.
* The Botwood basin will become the next prolific gold rush play in Canada.
* The environment has improved and there are a lot of good solid fundamentals, there's going to be a lot of activity in this area of the country.
http://www.investorcanada.com/interview.php?contentID=944
Joe... Strictly Drilling (for money) -- it originally was just for the oil sector but... you can't swing in and out of this sector without discussing the broad markets. So in a sense Strictly Drilling is an investment style.
Regards,
Frank P.
** Sagging US Gas Output Sets Stage for Higher Prices
By Joseph Silha
NEW YORK, May 31 (Reuters) - A steep drop in U.S. natural gas output this year could mean big price jumps this summer and again this winter if the mercury lingers for long at either end of the thermometer, industry analysts said.
http://www.slb.com/ba.cfm?baid=1&storyID=572551
taking the heat.
Bring it on! I've been moderating a fairly busy thread on SI with an active exclusion list - without much heat...
Regards,
Frank P.
Bob... the Strictly Drilling thread over at SI works beautifully - I like the concept of a club, I also like to exclude if the person isn't of Strictly Drilling quality. The thread thrives despite the threat of moderation.
FWIW, I agree with you on the concept of ignore ... don't use it myself.
Regards,
Frank P.
Bob, just out of curiousity; why would you allow the removal of offensive posts and yet not give the chairman of the board the right to excluded the offenders from posting?
Is an exclusion list like the one at SI a bad idea?
Regards,
Frank P.
Genoil Inc. Announces Operating Results for the First Quarter of 2002
CALGARY, May 30 /CNW/ - Genoil Inc. (TSX:GNO)
- Genoil is advancing toward commercialization of both of its major
technologies. Aided by the positive outcomes of both the standard and
catalytic test runs of its Heavy Oil Pilot Upgrader at Kerrobert,
Saskatchewan, management is currently negotiating with a small American
refinery to apply its upgrading technology to a one thousand barrels of
oil per day input stream. Initial feedback is encouraging. Supported by
independent engineering appraisals, Genoil has commenced the
construction of two small commercial hydrogen production units, which
should be completed in the fourth quarter of this fiscal year.
- Capital stock provides $1,152,427 in cash and secures
patents/technologies for $2,359,000. The Company issued 10.5 million
treasury shares at $0.21 per share to acquire all the shares of
Hydrogen Solutions Inc. and 700,000 treasury shares at $0.22 to acquire
all the shares of Crystal Clear Solutions Inc. The first acquired
company has the exclusive rights, for specific applications, to a
unique process for the production of hydrogen from water. The second
acquired company has the patent rights for a three-phase oil water
separation technique.
- First quarter financial results show loss of $905,310
- Genoil proposes to fund near term cash requirements by capital
offerings
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/020530/genoil_1st_quarter_1.html
Hi Peter... boy oh boy! Lots of folks out there in profit taking land today. I can see by the posters on the SDII thread that the bull run in gold is now over and they'll buy back in when it's more... ugh, convenient?
Oh, I don't know, am I missing something here?
Anyway... thanks for spreading a little "Frank" here and there, that one came from the heart.
Best Regards,
Frank P.
Hey guys... nice to see we can assemble without being banned :) anyway... the word is the U.S. fed is renewing the escallation of their money supply to support the economy, the banks and of course WOT - so I guess it's just a matter if time before we see some substantial inflation as the G7 competitively devalues their currencies. The Japanese are concerned with a rising yen because of renewed interest in their markets - they're printing like crazy too! The euro? - they'll have no choice but to devalue with all the new farm subsidies and import duties put in place by the U.S. government.
-
I've always assumed if the big currencies like the dollar, the yen and the euro - all devalued together - couldn't they maintain the illusion of fiat invinsibility?
Probably not anymore, eh? lol!
Regards,
Frank P.