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BofA warns of risk of dilution in Greek banking sector
http://www.ekathimerini.com/225906/article/ekathimerini/business/bofa-warns-of-risk-of-dilution-in-greek-banking-sector
National Bank of Greece is the parent organization of Banka NBG, a subsidiary bank they use to own in Albania. They sold their entire stake to another bank called American Bank of Investments, also located in Albania.
National Bank of Greece is selling assets as part of a European Union approved restructuring plan. It sold bank operations in South Africa and Bulgaria last year but still has assets in a handful of Balkan nations. The transaction is capital accretive, meaning the sale adds value to the company.
Patience is a virtue.
Hello Nick,
NBG did pull a 1-for-15 reverse split in 2015 in a failed attempt to
remain in compliance with NYSE listing requirements of trading above a dollar for 29 consecutive trading days.
However since the ADR is being cancelled that rule no longer applies or matters. The rules for stocks trading in Athens are different and less stringent than here in the states.
For example to remain in compliance on the ASE a company needs to have a Market capitalization of at least 3 million euros which is the equivalent of $3,583,000 Dollars. NBG has a market cap well above that.
Also depending on the number of shares you own, a reverse split at the right time might not be such a bad thing.
PIRAEUS Bank, Ticker -- (BPIRD) -- did a 1 for 20 RS in August. The result was a price of $13.76 from whatever penny's it traded at. Now it did fall pretty hard soon after the RS to as low as $4.60, but it's rebounded and trades comfortable around $7 a share now. Now that it seems to have formed a solid based, if I were invested in Piraeus I'd be comfortable continuing to buy at the $7.00 level after the RS.
If NBG did a RS most of us would probably survive a 1 for 20 or even a 1 for 50 with a good number of shares remaining. And remember the value of your holding doesn't change. Just the stock price.
And a higher stock price, one above $5.00, is far more attractive to institutional investors than a penny stock trading at.35 cents. I'd love to go from .35 to $5.00 or even $10 dollars -- over the long term. But I'm being realistic.
Something like that probably won't happen overnight. It took GGP 5 years to go from .35 cents to $30.00 -- and that was without a RS. People who were wise and bought and held -- became wealthy.
As far as NBG goes, I wouldn't mind a RS that puts us in a more attractive trading category for institutional investors. As long as it's not something crazy like 1 for 1000.
But a reverse split at the right time after the smoke has cleared regarding these stress test and bailout talks and contingency loans could be beneficial. Especially if the bank has reduced its NPL's is turning a profit and the citizens are working and earning decent wages so they can actually spend and save money. All that takes time. However if those things happen maybe there won't even be a need for a RS split at all.
Now a share buy back by NBG would be great. However Greek banks are not allowed by the European authorities to do buy backs while on the ELA mechanism because that would effectively translate into the ECB subsidizing banks' shareholders.
We just have to be patient, keep our fingers crossed and ride it out. To put it bluntly we're either going to make a lot of money or we're gonna get crushed like those poor people who bought when NBG was trading double digits.
But it's a new day and I'm betting we'll make money. Eventually. I still believe it won't be for another few years because of the government and ow they run things over there. But in time I think the recovery will reward all those who can hang tough and hold over the long term. Good luck to you!
https://www.sec.gov/divisions/corpfin/cf-noaction/2016/hellenic-exchanges-071516-902b.pdf
I want to believe the same thing, Lcbm68. But I think Greece needs a new form of government before anything positive will happen to the economy. Articles such as the ones below paint a picture of a country with very poor leadership.
I don't want Greece to leave the Eurozone for sure, but I do wish there were a better form of government in charge than the people who are there now. The citizens needs jobs and they need money to spend in order to get the economy moving and flowing. Just the other day there was a massive 24 hour strike to protest the austerity measures.
Germany has a lot of responsibility for the Harsh Austerity imposed on Greece. They need to break free of all that so the young people can work and grow. In my humble opinion I don't see the economy going anyway for years to come. NBG is probably a 5 to 10 year hold. That's just my opinion. I do hope I'm wrong and maybe after the stress test tings will improve. But that government in place now needs to go, in my opinion.
http://www.tornosnews.gr/en/greek-news/economy/29103-greece%E2%80%99s-economy-shows-signs-of-recovery-but-warning-signs-remain.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/08/after-nearly-a-decade-of-economic-crisis-greece-has-stopped-dreaming.html
Sunnier Forecast for Greek Stocks -- Barrons.com
BY CRAIG MELLOW | DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC. - 12/15/2017
Emerging Markets
Searching for some happy holiday news? Have a look at Greece. No, seriously. The European Union's chronic financial patient has seen three straight quarters of economic growth, the first time that has happened since 2006. Unemployment has shrunk to about 20%, from a peak near 28%. The budget is in surplus, not counting debt payments. And Athens may at last get off fiscal life support when its third EU--International Monetary Fund bailout package comes to an end next August.
These improvements have already made bondholders a killing. The yield on benchmark 10-year Greek sovereign paper has fallen from roughly 8% to 5% since February. (Bond prices and yields move in the opposite direction.) Greek stocks could come next. "We believe the bailout program will ultimately end with a successful conclusion and higher equity valuations, " says Christopher Colunga, portfolio manager at BlackRock's Emerging Europe Trust.
Those valuations have room to rise. The Global X MSCI Greece exchange-traded fund is worth half what it was five years ago, while European stocks have gained a third. The banks that dominate the index, such as Alpha Bank (ALPHA.Greece) and National Bank of Greece (NBGIF) , are trading at about 30% of book value, compared with 100% for European peers, says Nikos Koskoletos, head of research at Eurobank Equities in Athens.
THERE IS PLENTY OF REASON FOR CAUTION, too, starting with those banks, whose nonperforming-loan ratios are stuck near a staggering 50%. They need massive selloffs of distressed collateral, but these have largely been stymied by left- wing demonstrators who disrupt any foreclosure auctions. The notaries who oversee those procedures have been on strike most of this year, fearing for their own safety. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his Syriza Party, leftists themselves by heritage, have promised to restore order but haven't yet, Koskoletos says.
Other oddities riddle the Greek economy, says Nicholas Economides, a Greek-born professor at New York University'sStern School of Business. Most civil servants have never had a job evaluation because they go on strike if threatened with one. Archaeology authorities are holding up an $8 billionredevelopment plan for Athens' old airport to protect buried antiquities. And so on. "Structural reform laws are passed, but the government doesn't like them, so it doesn't implement them," Economides says.
The stock market remains thin and easily spooked. Greek equities climbed by 30% this spring when the country passed a periodic EU financial review. They lost most of that ground in September after an IMF official said the fund would demand a new "asset quality review" at the big banks.
Still, the trends are hopeful. Tsipras has complied with the official creditors' fiscal demands, after rising to power by denouncing them. Polls indicate that Syriza will yield power, probably next year, to the center-right New Democracy Party -- whose top priority will be "creating jobs in the private sector through a business-friendly environment," party leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis said recently.
A milestone before that will be bank stress tests, which the European Central Bank has brought forward to May so any capital deficiencies can be filled from existing bailout funds. (The rest of Europe gets its results in November.)
While a lot can go wrong with this picture, a little speculation on the Athens bourse seems reasonable. "If someone is willing to spend $16,000 for a Bitcoin, I can't understand why they wouldn't take a shot at Greece," Koskoletos says.
CRAIG MELLOW is a free-lance reporter based in Savannah, Ga.
Email: editors@barrons.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
12-15-17 2256ET
Copyright (c) 2017 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Chenzo11, unless you have something to say of substance that can be proven with FACTS and is directly related to the performance of NBG, then please leave me alone. In fact I'm asking that you please stop messaging me altogether. I could care less and don't wanna hear about your conspiracy theories.
Greek equity investors should take heed of rallying debt market:
When debt markets and equity markets are telling different stories, it can be highly profitable to pay attention.
A pronounced example of this can be seen in Greece, where the performance of its equity market is sharply lagging behind Greek government bonds that have rallied on signs that it is finally emerging from its economic slump. If the debt markets are correct, then Greek stocks should be due a re-rating next year.
The most recent IHS Markit Greece PMI showed its sixth consecutive improvement in manufacturing conditions, while employment growth was at its highest level in the 18 years that the survey has been carried out.
The good news has been reflected in Greek 10-year government bond yields, which have fallen from more than 7 per cent at the start of the year to 4.3 per cent.
The Athens Composite stock index is up a comparatively measly 16 per cent this year, back to the level at which it was trading in 2015.
There are some technical factors behind Greece’s stock market trailing in this way. Many Greek stocks are tiny in terms of market capitalization following the crisis, meaning that few bank analysts bother to cover them and large funds are unable to own them.
Psychologically, many professional investors remain traumatized from prior experiences investing in Greece and are not yet willing to take the career risk of distancing themselves from the safety of the herd.
Few are also likely to bother to look beyond the headline multiples of an index that is distorted by the heavy weighting of financial companies.
But for more nimble stock pickers, there are opportunities. A number of Greek industrial stocks have strong balance sheets and trade at undemanding multiples of free cash flow.
Those looking for a racier, although far riskier, option can look to Greek bank shares.
Not only is banking the most economically sensitive sector, but these lenders have very high capital ratios, trade at large discounts to book value, and operate in a highly consolidated retail banking market which in future should become profitable.
Either way, if the wider market catches on, betting on Greece could end up looking less contrarian and more consensus by the end of 2018.
miles.johnson@ft.com
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2017. All rights reserved.
https://www.ft.com/content/6e6ae15c-e015-11e7-8f9f-de1c2175f5ce
Chenzo11, enough of the crazy talk. I only post when I have something useful to share or informative to say. Not because I work for a firm that wants to scare you into selling your penny stock shares cheaply. Gimmie a break. The shares are already trading around.33 cents. How much cheaper do you want?
And if you really believe that large firms such as Goldman Sachs care about how many shares of a soon to be cancelled, over the counter penny stock you own, then you have a bizarre way of looking at things. You're paranoid.
No one is paying anyone to monitor a penny stock chat room. And finally, I own shares of NBG. Thousands of them. But I own them in Athens on the ASE. I buy in Euros. My trades settle in Dollars. I'm long on the company with a 5 to 10 year investment horizon. So please, STFU.
I have to agree with you Sundance2. There is no motivation for anyone to buy the ADR since it has become common knowledge it will become extinct soon.
However the NBGGY ADR probably won't disappear exactly in March because there are 500 million shares to unwind. The process could take at least a year or so before Bank of Mellon can rid itself of them all.
Tradernick, I no longer hold the NBGGY ADR. I'm trading in Athens on the ETE through Fidelity and hold NBG under ticker symbol ETE:GR.
When you are ready, and have thought it through carefully, if you want to buy NBG on the ETE, Fidelity's international trade desk is 800-544-2976.
The Athens Exchange is open from 1:30 AM to 7 AM Pacific Standard time.
For currency exchange rates to know how your trade will settle in U.S. dollars, I was refereed by the broker at Fidelity to the link below.
http://www.xe.com/
I paid a commission of €19.00 Euros which translates into $22.59 in dollars, plus 1% of the total cost of the order. That one percent is the cost for the currency exchange rate.
Think it through carefully. As you can see from this last experience, NBG is a highly speculative investment. You might make a lot or things could go sideways. I'm not one of these people on here who are blindly optimistic. This is real money.
Something that concerns me is a briefing I found in one of their filings and discloses. It's a CT ORDER. There is something confidential that they are refusing to reveal until the year 2022. Whatever it is, they excluded it from their filings back in July under the Freedom of Information Act. Don't know what this is and there's no way of finding out. Hopefully it's nothing.
http://www.otcmarkets.com/edgar/GetFilingPdf?FilingID=12182506
Looks as if the ADR deregistration process began on Nov 27th...
http://www.otcmarkets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=12400338
Yes that will avoid the 5 cent conversion fee that New York Bank of Mellon is charging American shareholders for the service of converting their ADRs into ordinary NBG shares that currently trade on the Athens Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol ETE:GR
Hey Tradernick, don't try and convince them anymore. I tried telling them what you just said last week about the 5 cent per share fee. It was KMBSOUTH who thought he knew everything and told me I was lying.
KMBSOUTH is the dumbest of them all. He really is clueless. He CLAIMS he has 400,000 shares. At that rate he will need to pay $20,000 in order to convert his ADRs into ordinary NBG shares. But again he's too stupid to understand that.
He doesn't understand the difference between TRANSFERRING your shares to a new broker verses CONVERTING your shares. Unfortunately others here want to believe him. So let them find out the hard way. Leave it alone and let their account get liquidated.
I'm not talking down to any of you. Georgie I don't understand why you've taken it that way. KMSouth told me I was spreading false info and I wasn't. I was just trying to share what I'd learned. But I won't post anymore and will leave. Good luck to all.
But they have to pay you the proceeds man. If they cash out your ADRs after the deadline, they don't get to just keep your money. They have to pay it back to you. They benefit by charging you the fee for the conversion or transfer. It's not that hard to understand. We're all in the same boat here. I'm not trying to mislead you. I'm trying to figure a way out of this without loosing a lot of money. I'm way down because most of my shares are above .33. I'm just trying to figure a way out without taking a huge loss.
This is the LAST TIME I will talk about this...
BNY Mellon OWNS your NBGGY ADRs. But they don't want them anymore. So they are saying that if you want to keep your ORIGINAL shares that you've held for so long, they will convert your NBGGY ADRs into ordinary NBG shares. That is a SERVICE they will perform for you. HOWEVER, for that service they are charging you A 5 cent per share fee plus a $17.50 cable fee.
If you do not want to pay that fee you have two choices. You can sell your shares on the open market then and open a new account with Fidelity and use whatever proceeds are left to REPURCHASE shares of ordinary NBG shares on the Athens stock exchange. OR.... you can not do anything and BNY will AUTOMATICALLY liquidate your shares at some point next you and pay you the proceeds.
Your brokers are correct. There is NO FEE to transfer from your current broker to a broker that trades internationally. HOWEVER if you want the holder of the ADR, which is BNY Mellon to withdraw your ADR and convert them to ordinary shares of NBG, you have to pay them for that SERVICE.
That payment is 5 cents per share. Not only have I thoroughly researched this, but I have spoken to TD Ameritrade and Fidelity multiple times today to confirm this. You guys are not asking your brokers the right questions and that is why they are not giving you the right answers. You have to press these guys further. This is an unusual situation and so right off the bat the 23 year old kid answering the phone at Etrade doesn't know the first thing about this kind of stuff. It's not an average phone call they are use to.
Finally.....
BNY Mellon JUST SENT this to me. Read it CLOSELY. Especially NUMBER 5. I'm just trying to help you guys understand. That's all. But it's your money, so why should I care? I don't even know you people. For those of you who don't think I know what I'm talking about. Time will prove me right.
Hello Mr. xxxx,
Please refer to the cancellation guide to cancel National Bank of Greece (cusip: 633643804) into the local shares (ISIN: GRS003003027).
1) Deliver the DRs via DTC to 2504 Account 016201 free of payment.
2) Send cancellation instruction via PDF file with at least one person from the sending institution cc in the email; or from a group email address. We cannot accept instructions from one person. Please email the instruction to drinstructions@bnymellon.com.
3) The instruction must include the following information:
a) Security Name
b) CUSIP Number
c) Number of DRs
d) Corresponding local delivery details.
e) Contact name, phone & email information in case we have any question with the instruction.
4) After BNY Mellon DRs receives the DRs, instruction & fee we will instruct our custodian to deliver the shares as instructed with trade date the day we receive the DRs and settlement date + 3.
5) You must have instructions in place to accept the cancellation fee via DTC. The cancellation fee is $.05 per DR rounding up to the next hundred + $17.50 per instruction.
6) Please have local receive instructions in place to accept the shares from our custodian. Below is our custodian information.
You can ignore me if you want and that's fine. But after you ignore me, go back and read the article. Pay particular attention to the second page first paragraph where is says....
If you surrender ADSs for the purpose of withdrawing the underlying Shares before the Depositary sells those Shares, you must pay the fee of the Depositary as provided in the Deposit Agreement of up to $0.05 per ADS surrendered, a cable fee of $17.50 and any applicable taxes or governmental charges. Payment should be made to The Bank of New York Mellon.
ogw0001 posted this link that I read and believe as true.
https://www.adrbnymellon.com/files/ad569583.pdf
Not to be negative. But I don't see NBGGY rising much further while trading in America. There's no incentive to buy the stock here unless it's for a very quick trade and dump. That 0.05 fee imposed by BNY Mellon makes it expensive to own shares which need to be transferred in March. The more you own the worst off you are if you plan on holding. The incentive is to sell. Some here may disagree, but we really got screwed. First the ADR is cancelled by NBG. Then The Bank of Mellon is raping us with this 0.05 fee you have to pay in order to do the conversion. You're dammed if you do and dammed if you don't.
Suppose to be on the 22nd
Unfortunately I don't trust BNY Mellon to keep them unsponsered. However the problem with selling at current levels is that I would suffer a tremendous financial loss. It's a tough decision to make.
Hopefully there is a way around this fee of 0.05 per share.
https://www.adrbnymellon.com/files/ad569583.pdf
Yeah I just got off the phone with Fidelity and was told the same thing. They haven't set up for it yet but they are receiving calls. He said they will know more soon.
Now that the Shock has worn off....
If you want to stay long, here's what you need to do to make the transfer happen.
You need your CUPSIC NUMBER FOR NBGGY.
You also need your DTC Number.
You need your brokerage account number
Now find an International Broker that will handle the transfer.
On third paragraph it is stated that “Holders may surrender their ADRs to the Depositary for cancellation in exchange for the delivery of the underlying ordinary shares of NBG” and in case that the holder did not participate in that procedure “at any time after the Termination Date, the Depositary may sell any shares underlying ADRs that have not been surrendered and may hold the uninvested net proceeds from of any such sale for the pro rata benefit of the holders of any such outstanding ADRs”.
It's over. There is no more hope.
What to do when an ADR is delisted from NYSE or NASDAQ
2. Company terminates its ADR program:
Sometimes a company may just terminate its ADR program for some reason. In such situations the ADR depository will notify ADR holders of the choices to redeem their ADRs. A company may simply terminate the program and payout a specific dollar amount for stockholders to surrender their stocks. Or a company offer the option to convert the ADR into the common stock trading on its domestic exchange in their home country. Very few companies offer this option due to the logistics, tax and other factors involved.
Some firms may decide to terminate its sponsored ADR program but let it trade in the unsponsored category. This decision is made by the ADR depository if there is trading interest and not by the company. Depositories can create unsponsored ADR programs without a company’s consent.
http://topforeignstocks.com/2014/08/08/what-to-do-when-an-adr-is-delisted-from-nyse-or-nasdaq/
I knew it was too good to be true that we could make money here. We're all fked. Damn.
Earnings are probably bad again. That's why it's sliding. My money would have been better shorting Blue Apron.
National Bank of Greece will announce 3rd Quarter 2017 results on Wednesday 22 November 2017
http://www.otcmarkets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=12345433
I've done my DD. I've put close friends in this stock so I believe in it. But sometimes you worry. That's why it's best not to check it daily.
This stock is worth less than a postage stamp right now. And I can't sell without loosing thousands of dollars. Technical analysis does not work on a .31 cent stock. At this point it's all a gamble. Ether we are gonna get lucky, or we are gonna get crushed. That's it.
This stock is total dog shit right now. I hate to say it but it's true. The price action speaks for itself. I have thousands of shares so I can say it. Institutions don't buy over the counter stocks so how on earth will they ever get back on a real exchange? Reverse split? Share cancellation then relist? Or will they give up and simply go private? Lets face it, what does Greece have to offer the world outside of tourism and a few petroleum products? There are 9 billion shares out there. The odds of this ending well for us is not good under the circumstances. That's the brutal truth. I hope I'm wrong. God knows I hope I'm wrong. But so far the record speaks for itself. The biggest problem, or one of them is being OTC. Smart money does not buy Pink Sheets. Gamblers do.
Article pretty much sums up why there is still a lack of stock
movement.
http://www.ekathimerini.com/222617/article/ekathimerini/business/greek-banks-plan-record-sale-of-bad-loans-as-pressure-mounts
Greece is emerging from an eight-year financial crisis and what's the first thing it does? It spends $2.4bn on fighter jets.
These people really need to get their priorities in order and grasp the notion that, after a hundred and eighty odd years, Turkey has no plan to re-occupy.
Greece already has over 100 F-16 jets - a ridiculous number for the self defense of a small country.
It seems that the snarling of the ECB and a left leaning government has had little impact on their bad decision making. It's absurd that a bankrupt, debt laden country with so many economic problems would waste the little bit of cash it has on war planes. Will these people ever get their finances in order? Good Grief.
http://thehill.com/policy/defense/355873-trump-touts-potential-24b-greek-fighter-jet-deal-at-appearance-with-pm
The 750 million in bonds that NBG sold, who do they belong too? And who bought them? Because they are backed by home mortgages. That means if the borrowers do not pay or can not afford to pay, they will loose their homes. That clearly is not a good thing if the borrowers are Greek citizens. That will only add to the drag on the economy and further the recession.
Another day of going nowhere despite the successful bond offering. What will it take to move this stock. What do we think we know that institutional investors don't. Because their appears to be little interest in purchasing what is obviously very cheap stock.
I think it's fair to say that because of these stress test, NBGGY is going nowhere for the rest of the year. You can use the time as a buying opportunity or simply sit on the side lines and wait it out.
European stocks were down in general.
https://www.reuters.com/article/europe-stocks/european-stocks-on-backfoot-as-politics-play-spoilsport-again-idUSL8N1M616I