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NYSE TRIN at the moment is 1.19 which is not high.
It is at the very high end of NEUTRAL.
NYSE TRIN out trumps Nasdaq TRIN when they disagree and NYSE TRIN has been mostly neutral.
EDIT: NYSE TRIN moved up to 1.22 which could mean that people are position themselves for a downdraft tomorrow.
Does not look like a brilliant close to bears....
Just leaves everything hanging in the air. 10 minutes left and looks like they will drag a positve close on most of the indices.
NYSE TRIN fallen a bit, but TICK nearing zero
It's making me nerveous and thus, I will just sit no matter what as I usually make mistakes when I act on emotions.... We need a good down leg soon or it leaves tomorrow all in the air.
I want a clear indication of TOP. Haven't we earned it by now
High TICKs - looks like they are trying to bounce it here. TRINs back off a bit and NYSE TRIN at 1.11 is neutral
NYSE TICK is over 500. I hope we get a spectacular sell off into the close.
We need NYSE TRIN above 1, preferably above 1.3 and soon.
The TICK just looks strongish.
Summary of the econ stats for the day:
http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-09-27T105739Z_01....
"NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage applications fell for the first time in four weeks even as interest rates dropped to a six-month low, an industry trade group said on Wednesday, providing further evidence that the U.S. housing market slump is deepening.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity for the week ended Sept. 22 decreased 4.9 percent to 566.6 from the previous week's 595.8, which was its highest level since April."
(More about the effects
http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/25/real_estate/interest_drops_markets_to_recover/index.htm?postversion=....
)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aafBqoqJ8eyc&refer=home
" Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Orders placed with U.S. factories for durable goods unexpectedly dropped in August, signaling companies may be scaling back investment plans as the economy slows.
The 0.5 percent decrease followed a 2.7 percent drop in July, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. It was the first back-to-back decrease since April-May 2004. Excluding transportation equipment, orders slumped 2 percent, the most in more than a year. "
Worth a read while waiting for the market to open:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aKsA5SoMf0Zk&refer=home
If Economy Can Self-Correct, Let's Fire the Fed: Caroline Baum
I was almost sure that it was a joke...
But the problem is that I love British deadpan humour and could not resist replying. So if you failed to include , so did I. The problem is that if you include
to deadpan humour it no longer is such....
This is my last post tonight as I have none left. Best luck to all...
Chico,
Why do you have no margin account? Get one with margin. If you don't use the margin, only difference is that you have zillions of fewer limitations.
(The biggest stupid rule about no margin accounts is exactly the fact that you cannot trade on non-settled cash. Any brokerage whose accounting systems cannot deal with different settlement dates is utterly useless. In real life, you have four different cash balances: spot cash i.e. what do you have now, T+1 (cash tomorrow, net of today's option and futures trades that settle T+1 and stock trades taken two days ago that settle tomorrow), T+2 (today's futures and option trades, stock trades that took place two days ago or one day), T+3 (...). If they cannot keep track of that on their systems and need manual checking of it, you most definetly should not be with them...
Also, get a new broker as it is clear from they letter that they cannot be bothered to give you correct information about you account, but sanction you for violations of rules after they decide after the fact that they allowed you to do something wrong.
Bad, bad, bad.. Their bad for which they have no excuse.
Faroq,
There is no god, so just leave it out. And 10% drop by the expiry of October is by no means impossible. There is a lot of time. And with option valuations you have to really take into account changes in volatility. September has not finished yet and October options expire on the third Friday of October, so there is plenty of time IF we topped here or tomorrow.
I grant you that probabilities for, say, 37 puts closing significantly in the money are slim, but what if we sell 3% tomorrow and volatility spikes up? You can make a lot of money on out of money options on volatility peaks even if they expire worthless.
Do you expect volatily to break to lower levels? Why?
What's way down?
As far as I see, QQQQ closed at 40.77 and current real time quote is 40.69-40.71.
Futures (NQ, ES, ER (= mini RUT), YM) fell after the close of equity markets and now have recovered about half of it or so, but it is all within the normal after hours illiquid noise.
I have not seen any news that would move markets significantly one or the other way so far.
Yep, misery loves company - but don't fall in love with it
You have to make your own decisions and as you said you have your lines in sand which is good. Even if it right at the top. The secret to profitable trading is to be willing to take a loss, see the market go your way just afterwards then willing to join back.
I tend to take longer term positions and aggressively day trade when I see the things working my way. This is the reason that on Friday I made good profits even though some of original futures sales were out of money going into the day. When the market showed good signs of fall: sustained negative tick and high TRINs that were trending up, I kept selling every and each bounce. I closed the full position near the lows because I was way over my confort limit. I would only do it when I can nurse the position with full attention every second. The only mistake I made was to go short near close with a small position with the expectations of follow up.
As for your about the rising wedge, I would say no. People tend to see in chart patterns whatever they want to. First of all, you top line of the wedge is not the top line of the wedge but line of your channel. But if you try draw the "proper" top line for the wedge, it does not work well either.
First of all, you have to make a choice whether you count the wigs and tails or just the bodies. I personally think that only the bodies matter. But if you lower the top line to touch the top of the "obvious" first candle's top, there third body of the third candle breaks the top line. You can argue that it does not matter, but then what does? What is a wedge?
But then again, just look at the last few candles. Don't they look like a flag? Ok, you might not want to hear that....
This is my post from early August when I foolishly disagreed with PokerSam. The charts update and you might want to view that in a different window, I'll add my new commentary below the URL as the charts are now. You can read my commentary as things were then and you can see how it all turned against what I was saying. But note, I had lines in sand which said where I would reverse:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=12589573
1) NYSE composite might be making double top. RSI has negative divergence, MACD and histogram do not agree with the uptrend in the price that we have had since September.
BPNYA does not say anything to me.
NYSE McClennan has huge negative divergence. Same for NYA50. NYA200 is a bit better.
2) SPX looks scary. It looks like it is off to new highs with no bounds... But RSI is at topping levels, although the angle of approach to 70 seems to indicate strenght. SPXA50 has negative divergences, too. 200 is better.
3) COMPX: double top? Please let it be so... Bullish percentage index looks bullish, NAA50 negative divergencies, same for 200.
4) NDX, daily possible breakout? RSI soon ready to reverse, though. Bullish percentage index is neutral i.e. it could top right here, you could argue that it has negative divergence, but that really depends on how the price and it reacts in the next day or two.
NDXA50 - negative divergencies. It actually fell.... Same for the 200.
5) SOX bear flag? The best news for bears so far...
6) Banking index - double top early August high?
So I will take a bit more pain....
That CME shows a negative divergence... The problem is that they are warnings about the change and can take a long time to resolve. It's part of the solution but by no means perfect.
My pain is not quite too bad yet...
I got out of short futures on Friday near lows with good profit (some of the futures were underwater but net settlement was quite profitable) but was stupid enough to re-enter with expectation of at least having Monday a but neutral or with a good probability of continuation. And then I failed to close when it started going wrong way. The problem is that I was at work and could not evaluate the bounce. I just thought it would die...
Most of my options are in November to January time frame, so although significant portion of them are under water I am not at this point too worried about that yet.
Only real question is whether this turns into a stupid break out... Then the pain will be real. I'm definetly using the hope indicator and added to shorts at the close. We've got a good number of econ stats and hopefully warnings start piling up....
Yep, still about 50 points to go....
I've been waiting for it long enough, but the damn thing does not seem to know that it is supposed to be going down instead of up!
NYSE TICK is strong, so unless it reverses soon, I expect we get one more leg up. Have to get all the shorts to cover before they can let it down...
If you mean Nasdaq composite, yes. And obviously there are quite a few financial stocks trading on the Nasdaq market. There is even a separate index for them, Nasdaq financials....
Correction
"The NDX is just the top 100 stocks of the Naz"
It is top 100 non-financial stocks....
U.S. consumer confidence jumps to 104.5 in September, topping Wall Street forecasts, Reuters reports. More soon.
101 was expected, so there as I said yesterday.......... Let's hope there's devil in the detail.
UPDATE: 101 was Reuters reported expectation number, Bloomberg has
"Economists forecast a reading this month of 103"
Need to attract the bottom feeders somehow; give the impression that they might have bottomed....
Some news items about economy
http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/26/news/companies/lennar/index.htm?postversion=2006092606
Lennar: Worst isn't over yet
No. 3 homebuilder's profits fall, cuts outlook, CEO says market still looking for a floor.
"Lennar CEO Stuart Miller said in a statement said that the company was cutting its fourth-quarter earnings outlook "to a broad range of $1.00 to $1.30 per share." Wall Street analysts were looking for $1.60 a share for the quarter, on average."
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B107650DE%2D0A89%2D4278%2D81AA%2D0491EF4092E...
Lowe's cuts profit view to lower end of forecast
Talking heads confusing the market -
So we rallied on rate cut expectations. But the feds might be getting a bit worried about the markets jumping the gun, as Paul Volcker came out saying that US inflation pressures will persist. I would be surprised if he spoke without the knowledge of some of the feds, at least.
And oil is recovering a bit. As I said, though, the consumer confidence probably will come above expectations on account of gasoline price falls. It would be sweet for shorts if the future expectations index would fall significantly. Asia didn't exactly think think highly of the US rally and mostly failed to follow.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8I2UkcaiDQg&refer=home
Volcker Sees Risks of U.S. Inflation Creep, Pressure on Fed
"Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Paul Volcker, who halted a wage and price spiral as Federal Reserve chairman between 1979 and 1987, said he's worried both about inflation and pressure on the U.S. central bank to not do anything about it.
``I am a little bit more worried about inflation,'' said Volcker, 79, speaking at a discussion sponsored by the Women's Economic Round Table in New York yesterday. Gerald Corrigan, who served as New York Fed president from 1985 to 1993, said he shared Volcker's concerns.
While the inflation rate isn't ``high'' or ``running away,'' Volcker said, ``it is kind of creeping up, and I am impressed by the degree of pressure, if that is the right word -- psychological pressure, political pressure -- there is not to do anything about it.''"
Danger.... SPX worries me.
There is no question about us falling down soon. But it can start quite a bit higher. No question, the foundations of the "recovery" are fake, but that does not mean we cannot move significantly higher.
I don't believe in it, though, because we are facing the confessions season. There is a fundamental reason for this period being weak and it is the adjustment of expectations lower prior to the third quarter results so the companies can beat by a cent or two.
We urgently need something to kill the semis and tech stocks. DELL is expected to give a bad mid-quarter update which should be out any time soon, I just cannot find it (with the little effort that I have put into it) when do they give that. Oh, DELL closed up 3.36% or 0.71.
CSCO up 1.53% or 0.35. Daily MACD is getting very inviting for a short, though.
AAPL is just silly. Up 3.77%.
No question, it will all end up with tears, but it can take a lot longer than anyone expects. Or One single profit warning will bring it down.
Btw. as far as buying into high yield stocks, take a look at the tobacco producers.
Maybe OOPS just started... Maybe....
But we need a reasonable pullback here and no continuation of the up move tomorrow. The new highs are making headlines tomorrow even if we won't close there today.
Looks pretty bad to shorts....
Silly as it is this is all supposedly on rate cut expectation. I'm getting close to my pain threshold. No doubt about it. TICK is scary. Remember that tomorrow's consumer confidence is going to be good, probably exceeding the expectations because of the recent fall in gasoline prices.
SPX broker to new highs.
"MM on Bloomburg who likes the homebuilder stocks."
His just doing his job and trying to get some support to into which download his holdings.
Why do people think that trades need to clear in order to be taken into account for end of quarter/month?
Last trading day of the month is Friday this week and your position at the end of trading on that day is all that matters. The trades could clear in T+30 for what it matters. The transaction date is the accounting cut off.
Anyone see any news? TICK just spiked to 1300 and N'dq tick over 800.
Stockcharts TRIN chart looks like the one posted by PS.
And the last value is 1.35. It's been climbing steadily............
Just in case you missed it - the housing market has bottom now
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAFuT8YFNJQk&refer=home
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops
"``We've been anticipating a price correction and now it's here,'' Lereah said. ``The price drop has stopped the bleeding for housing sales. We think the housing market has now hit bottom.''"
Comments like that are just meant to reassure. I just miss the warning about it not to be taken as any type of advice, or inducement to buy real estate and the joke would be complete.
Hard landing to be "ignored" today - looking for rate cuts
This is too funny:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1D.4MYh6dYI&refer=home
"U.S. stocks capped a losing week with two straight days of declines on concern the economy is weakening. Economic data this week, beginning with a housing report, may show inflation is decelerating enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates."
The last hope of bulls is always rate cuts. I wonder how much of slowing in existing home sales is just enough to increase the rate cut expectations but not remind them about probability of a recession increasing like a train wreck in slow motion....
That was a good day...
On NDX we are reaching the top of the two day rally, that was about 60 points in two days. Wonder if we could do that in a day....
Anyone had a chance to look at the COT report?
NQs finally leaving 1640 behind
For awhile looked like we might bounce. NYSE TICK has been quite strong, positive given that futures were basically stuck in a narrow band for quite awhile and TRIN was creeping down.
Now looks good for continued down.
Looks good indeed for shorts
TICK is behaving well, staying negative with spikes down to -500 or so. But TRINs are amazingly low 0.99 and Nasdaq TICK 0.89 which make me worry about possible reversal at some point unless they soon move above 1. To really feel confident, I would like to see them above 1.2 at least.
reason de jour - recession coming
Btw. have you ever thought how all those tv shows select the stocks that they show on the ticker tape?
I wonder if they have a filter of showing more green stuff than red... Of course, they have to include some of the major ones and whatever they are talking about but sometimes you see strange companies on them.
Another strange thing right now is that NYSE Tick has persisted positive during the last leg down right now, but future are selling hard. It is probably index arbitrage programs? Though, should not they sell stock and buy futures if futures are ahead of the game on the down side....
Ok, ticks have given up again. We've had a few monster up days, it is time that we would have a real monster down day with follow up to finally seal the faith of the uptrend.
NYSE TICK above 500
I guess they are trying to see if they can dip buyers to jump in. It would be nice to see TRINs to move higher, this would make such a beautiful top, but I am a bit worried about the save comming in like it did the other day...
Although, the rumours are that DELL is giving a bad mid-quarter update. There should be a steady stream of hair balls to cough up when we enter the pre-announcement season for real.
OOPS in the time it took me to write this, TICK fell to -320, Nasdaq TICK -387.
If only we could erase the save from the other day, it would increase the confidence of the shorts a lot.
This is ridiculous. Now TICK is up to 950. I just did an update on the message.
INDU, SPX erased yesterday's gains, RUT has about 2 points to go, NDX close too
If we could just break below the lows of Tuesday! That would be fun!
What resilience..... NDX has such a hard time turning negative....
The econ data basically says recessions here, INDU down a fair amount, so SPX starting to make a good fall and NDX/QQQQs just tip there toe into red.
Somehow I think that when it goes, it will go spectacularly.
TRIN and TRINQ are kind of stable. I would like to see them moving up a bit. TICK has these nasty save spike up to 500+ still.