So Ackman would take a position that would pay him a LOT less than what he makes right now and with a big public conflict of interest? Yeah, ok...

And still green 3% YTD, fnma red 48% YTD. I do think in this market FnF has a better chance of moving upward though, being how low fnf it is, and how high the rest of the stocks have been. Own this on the market downturn, while Moelis gets implemented, cash the returns and buy blue chip stocks after the crash!

That was a sarcastic message as to every bandwagon that pumpers on this board jump on. We will get our due, but let’s not try to find a new savior to pump and dump

Mueller will save us

Fannie Mae Says CEO Mayopoulos to Step Down by End of the Year

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-23/fannie-mae-says-ceo-mayopoulos-to-step-down-by-end-of-the-year?

Maybe the trigger to admin or congress action will be the next economic downturn. Basically the economy takes a downturn, housing slumps, and the GsEs are not as profitable as some people default, and their instrument do not attract investors or not at a high enough profit. The govt would not make as much money from the GSEs, and so they exercise the warrants to get some 80b$, since they won’t foresee the companies being profitable in the near future. Pps would be low since companies wouldn’t be too profitable, but once the market goes up again, then we see around 10$ pps.

An economic downturn is due—I had expected it to come late last year. Yield curve is flattening now, so we might see it Sep of this year. For this whole thing to play out though, and for us to see ~10$pps, it would take about 5 years.

Let’s see if any of this plays out.

While I hope you’re right about the outcome, there are some notable differences between them. Aig didn’t carry a govt charter, or have this govt guarantee to deal with. I think the explicit guarantee is the best option to get these gses out of conservatorship, and I do think it’s getting momentum. I don’t see a US where the companies are wound down, but some of their business will be given away for sure, the question is just how much will remain.

it does pertain to the GSEs. The fed (us and ny) buy a lot of FnF product with the money China pays them for bonds. So, if China were to suddenly stop buying US bonds, liquidity for the secondary mortgage market would drop

Ditto, spread between fnma fmcc and preferred, though mostly common. I dont see an scenario where we lose all our investment, but do see more scenarios where we wasted the time value of money.

Still holding though

Can’t negate this trader is in the money. 0.01$ in the money ??

White knight mnuchin? Lol expect mnuchin to give some of our business away to tbtf banks aka his old wall street buddies. I still expect the price to go up and down thanks to day trading and market manipulation until some real news come out.

Gotta say, I’m surprised by the support at 1.50. I was expecting this to be at low 1.40’s by this time today.

What could be going on?

Source?

So trump is pulling punches from obama? Yeah I’m not buying that

Starting to think that if you are a day trader you might be better off flipping preferreds: volatility is still there, but the price range is much smaller long term wise, so you don’t have as much risk of betting on what is typically a low, and then the stock tanking like commons did the first half of the year.

It almost looks like 2 big players are exchanging a position at a price range

Those battles won’t end while a hedge fund owns some of these shares. What we won’t get is the easy slam dunk that moat were hoping for because the cases seemed very logical. But one of the cases will be a victory eventually and the price will jump before (but the the appellate courts will drag the cases forever).

Or 1% gain in 500 years. Either way GLTA

The thing with this stock, it could be 2.50 tomorrow as much as it could be .50. We have see the former more recently than the latter, so I was a buyer at 1.25, since it has had support in the past (support is not unbreakable). Overall I have some heavy losses on this stock, but with no resolution in the next few months, the stock will continue to be volatile and I’m betting on it touching at least +20% from where it is sitting right now at some point before EOY.

To double down or get out, that is the question

You should buy now, the patent pending algorithm says up .15 from yesterday’s close and it’s going down. Amazing opp!!!

It’s more to buffer against business losses. So if some new reform or law like the tax reform hits the GsE’s, that 3b can absorb it so they dont ask treasury for money. Or if housing takes a downturn and the gses have a bad quarter, then they can tap that 3b. Keeping the lights on and payroll shouldnt require 3b

This is the point that I was trying to make a couple of days ago that worries me. He has advocated the utility model in the past. He may not have done as much as we wanted, but was one of the few that did something.

On the flip side, mel knows well what mnuchin wants to do, so just maybe he will put some safeguards before leaving office. We’ll see.

Mnuchin cares about his bottom line, I think he will give as much of the business to his bank buddies, but wont do away with fnf. I don’t think the pps will be lower than 1$ whatever the resolution ends up being, likely range would be 1.80-8 based on moelis and other plans out there. The problem is timeframe, this has taken and continues to take a long time to resolve

Watt asked for months in public congress hearings for the capital buffer, then treasury and fhfa agreed to it. This was not mnuchin’s priority, else he could have done it day one and without increasing the liquidation preference. Im not putting more eggs in the mnuchin basket, until he comments on what hes actually planning to do.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-21/fannie-and-freddie-permitted-by-u-s-to-keep-3-billion-buffers

“I commend Director Watt for his longstanding effort to ensure the stability of Fannie and Freddie by permitting them to retain some capital, and appreciate that Secretary Mnuchin responded to the concerns raised by Director Watt and members of Congress,”

Yeah i’m not buying that argument. Trumputin does whatever occurs to him whether dems or reps don’t comply. Why would he wait for after the mid terms when he’s more likely to have more dems to try to push legislation? His plan probably helps tbtf banks handing them out the gse’s business.

Watt’s done his job. Could he have done more? Absolutely, but not more than mnuchin or trump or the dem or rep congress. At least he asked that we retain capital and now we are, even if that increases the liquidation preference (stipulated by treasury).

It looks like mnuchin does not want to implement the utility model. He refers to replacing watt as follows:

“Make sure sure we have someone in that job that supports the agenda”

And watt has publicly endorsed the GSE utility model. He may be referring to other areas that watt and him disagree on, but it’s clear that mnuchin does have a plan in mind, and it is not watt’s.

Those slides are for q1 2017

That is assuming there are 40 cents on the dollar in terms of assets vs liabilities after the govt takes 187 B from the company

Why would prefer shares benefit from receivership? That makes no sense. If company goes into receivership the govt will claim to most of the company’s assets leaving jr preferreds to divide up whatever’s left. Probably lower than the current market price of those shares.

The reason to buy pfds is because IF fnf go into receivership instead of being freed like everyone here hopes, you’d get some of your money back instead of losing all—ie if you invest in commons.

Even Ackman is hedging his common bet buying pfds. It is common sense to have a split of both common and pfds if you are long on the stock. Am I wasting my time replying to a common pumper?

Hey Clay, not sure if you get asked this question much, but: how do you find the stocks that you trade? I’d be good if you could put together a free resource guide to show it.

Interesting that it’s called “investment”

This is quite ridiculous. I’m starting to see more and more MM manipulation. Wishing I would have gotten into this stock much earlier than I did to ride the waves up and down.

Up on no news, down on no news!

Not sure what it’s got to do with fnf but looks interesting

Fwiw, i get paid at month end and didn’t receive a deposit today, so some transfers might still take place tomorrow

I haven’t seen any news regarding an actual draw taking place, did it actually happen?

If traders rule this stock, then they gotta make the stock swing both ways all the way to 1.20, and to 3.20. The people making actual money on this stock are those that buy at support levels and sell at resistance levels. You do get stuck with expensive shares on down swings, but it seems to always go back up. That being said, I’m a buyer at 1.20s, not at 1.40 right now.

Long term, I think nothing has changed

Missed my chance to add on the 1.20’s cause of work...there are a lot of chances to make money in the rollercoaster

Support means there’s people willing to buy at that price, and so the price is likely to stay there until buyers have emptied their pockets. It doesn’t mean that the price won’t go down below that level, just less likely too.

I was right after all, today has been a good day for any buyers yesterday. This is a crazy stock.

Are you buying more shares then? I think I’m a buyer tomorrow. 1.20’s has had support historically, and under almost all circumstances, excluding full on liquidation, we end up above this price level. I just hate to wait until forever to get a return on investment. Tomorrow will tell if this was a great or bad idea