Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
When thinking about market cap increase, think about this. Biogen doesn’t even own 100% of the drug, Eisai also has rights.
Coach, can you elaborate?
It’s a little early for me:)
When you say the 90 day washout period is a wild card, are you thinking this extended time may make the difference or that it may not matter if permanent damage is done to the receptors?
I had a brain-fart. Sorry, thanks. Hurry up bryostatin. Lol.
What is the 90 period?
What could be the causes for the wide spread placebo results at 6 months between the trials?
If the bryostatin arm can finish this trial above baseline and with a positive slope at 6 months, that would be huge. The positive slope after 6 months would probably be more important than the final score.
Then I say, sell to the highest bidder.
Wouldn’t forming a partnership by SNPX too soon after good results limit the possible future market cap of the company since future profits would be shared. Wouldn’t waiting for a maximum buyout be more profitable to current investors?
Unfortunately, I was here for both trials. I do think that extending the trial will be what makes the difference. It will give the drug more time to work and at the same time give the placebo group more time to decline.
Do you have a drug over placebo separation number in mind that you think will please the market?
What would you consider a statsig improvement over placebo in this trial?
Maybe I need to adjust my perception of what the valuation of this stock should be in the first day or two after release of clearly good results in this moderately severe trial.
Anyone known of companies that has produced clearly good results in their AD trials so that I can examine their valuations soon after release of the new?
If I believed your valuation scenario, I would not risk any money in a binary trial results readout. I would buy right after good results and ride the safe valuation up. Personally, I think they will be all over this stock if results are good.
Yes, I know. I take moderately severe, as severe, but moderately. The point I was making is this company is going after a population that others don’t want to tackle.That should give more value to the company if the trial is a success. A premium will be deserved.
It would just boggle my mind that a company that is going after the toughest disease out there and going after the most difficult population of that disease, the severe patients, would not quickly be worth at least $1 billion dollars with clearly good results from a trial.
Thanks, Coach. That really helped.
Outstanding shares vs Fully diluted shares. A $1 billion market cap. for this company based on current outstanding shares would be about $147 per share, using fully diluted shares it would be about $82 per share. Which share count do you use when projecting?
Exactly!! (as Coach would say).
I think we’re setting a new floor in the $8's. I predict within the next week or two a “big fish” will want in at these prices and will push the price to $10.50 before September is over (I’m being conservative).
In proving the bio-equivalency of the natural vs the synthetic bryostatin, is there any real significant chance of the two not being bio-equivalent?
Thanks for the advice, Cyosol. You too, Coach.
I’ve decided not to sell my flip yet. I’m willing to lose $1 of the $3 plus per share buffer built-up, in hopes of this stock going higher in the next two months. I guess it’s the gambler in me. Lol!
Dilemma, dilemma. I bought a few thousand shares at $5.10 as a flip (money I can’t afford to lose, but I took a chance anyway). Was planning on selling when price reached $12. Now I’m thinking about counting my blessings and making the flip now.
Thanks, Cyosol. I really appreciate your healthy dose of caution.
This stock isn’t going down much further. It will hang around here until the next big fish wants in, and pushes it higher.
We blazed through the $5 range in four tradings days, $6's in seven days, $7's in six days. Hope the $8's are as quick.
Any of the three what?
He didn’t mention zero toxins, but when commenting on Biogen's drug, he said unfortunately it has a lot of safety issues.
Yeah, I normally don’t trade stocks, I have a set amount that I will take into results. But, when the s/p price got so low, I decided to flip a few thousand shares, in at $5.10. I figured that at that price there was a low risk of losing money, unless the company diluted. I will sell my trading stock before data release, no matter what the price is at that time. I feel very good about the chances of success with this trial.
Cyosol, in your opinion, do you think the stock will break double digits before results? That’s not considered taking off.
And what a disappointment that would be!
Did you get any sense on whether they plan on raising money before data readout?
Thanks, Coach.
If true, that article on amyloid plaque disqualified about 80% of the drugs in trials for A.D. from success. Hope some of that investment come this way.
Where can I read this article?
“selective genetic treatment” sounds a little squirrley to me, but what ever.
Any estimates on how much this trial will cost?
Todays trading in this stock was a sign of something. I just haven’t figured out what that something is. Lol!
Do you think there will be an increase in “toe dipping” as results get closer?
Any specifics you want to share?