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If tier one companies can't do it at the same time that lower tiers are blocked by IPR who exactly is going to make them? They have to be somebody since a winner will be announced. I think the telling line is "Many industry insiders believe the market for 3G still needs to be proven before attention is given to low-cost 3G devices." Why is this so? Better devices for everyone is better for everyone. They need and want to milk what they are offering at higher prices to fewer people in order to profit from their own diminished efforts. Who is going to supply the chipsets and how can they do this given what this article says? Go Q.
More like beer.
Yeah, I get that alot. I too will be sticking with Q for awhile longer. These battles of Q's are better than any Super Bowel and have cheaper tickets too.
The problem with the in and out mindset is you can get blindsided. Look at T-Mobiles coverage map. Looks to me like a big hole in the Carolina's. They being Suncom just finished their buildout of GSM and are shutting down the old TDMA network. Never mind that GSM really is TDMA based. T-Mobile which does not offer 3G services was recently the big winner of the AWS spectrum auction and are on record with the goal of increasing their subscriber base by 50% and deploying 3G services. So they use the same technology, fit nicely into TM's coverage gap, and contribute to the subscriber goal. Why run the risk of being outside due to day to day movements? TM or others will pay roughly $2,300 per subscriber. My only question is why Alltel bought Western Wireless's 850K subscribers for 6 billion. On that note Alltel bought Western two years ago and could be ready to buy up another regional CDMA provider anytime. Look to RCCC, DCEL, CYCL, and USM for targets of both GSM and CDMA camps. Ultimately Alltel goes to Verizon though. Forget the fact that cable companies also bid on the AWS auction and may want to consider buying a regional cellphone operator as a jumpstart.
Watch it get bought by the likes of T-Mobile or ATT/Cingular. Subscribers average $1,900 to $2,600 in a buyout. How many does Suncom have? Net out the debt and there you go. The bondholders are in it for a reason.
Thanks for the post I enjoyed reading it. Please don't think I am harping but I do have a question. You said "If we assume from what we've seen so far that no one better than Paul could have been chosen, management is still culpable of arrant recklessness in their assumption ab initio that that would be the case." I guess my sensitivity is towards the everthing is right and everyday is up mindset. IJ did give us Globalstar right? Were there any other errors? Why judge so soon? Is he capable of losing some early things to only succeed later in a much bigger way? Should we really base his potential and value on his first annual review? For me the biggest thing about PJ is that he is IJ's son. I suspect father and son have an above average relationship. Who's to say that IJ has not been downloading/teaching PJ for many years. No outsider could compete with that. Throw in the stable "court" and I think you have an above average chance of succession.
On legal fees my first thoughts are to count the lawsuits and assign companies to them. Take the proportions and apply that to say 75% of Q's costs. I say 75% for no particular reason other than to assign a premium to Q's purchases. I figure they should have a spare-no-expense mindset. To adjust further I would want to know what is Q paying for now that counters previously paid for NOK supports like G&M.
Again, thank you for taking the time.
strick,
"My guess is that--given a second chance--you wouldn't put the discussion into the emotional arena."
Please excuse me as that was not my intention. With respect to corporate "incest" (not sure this is the best term) I am very close to your position. However, each circumstance should be considered in its own context in my opinion. I think it is grossly unfair to lay the NOK license renewal on PJ's shoulders especially after only one year on the job. Do people doubt what kind of mentor IJ was to PJ? Do some people assume that IJ never made any mistakes? To date I think Q has done a pretty good job of defending itself. BRCM lost in NJ, had its fangs removed before the ITC, and was handed a non-binding/may be ignored pass recently. $100 million in 06 with twice that budgeted in 07. Some people may balk at those numbers but I do not. It is a fact of life and the sooner we appreciate it the better. It is a sign of strength. Valuable things cost money to insure and protect. Percentage wise how much is Q spending versus market cap or cash on hand let alone future revenues?
I could not agree more. I think the anti-PJ sentiment is nothing more than a knee-jerk response by people who assume the father to son hand-off is negative in general. My guess is that if they were the son they would have a different opinion.
I see no reason to throw PJ under the bus. IJ could still be running the company and I believe we would be in exactly the same place.
I'm sorry to hear you had cancer. I hope your treatment is complete and all is well. Cancer is a thief that hopefully someday is put away for good. Good health to you.
You are right that this will embolden Q's opponents to no end. So what do we have now? Had Q prevailed they could have asked Judge Brewster to stop BRCM's products from selling even though Q is not in competition with them. Although this appears to be a BRCM victory Q's patents were held valid but that due to some failure to disclose to the patent office Q cannot block them selling products. The jury also did not like the rate Q wanted. Were they thinking proportionality in their determination? Do companies regularly omit information from the patent office thus keeping them as trade secrets? BRCM apparently was collecting such secrets. Where in Texas are you located?
I guess my beef with the whole NOK position is that if allowed to prevail great harm will be done to property rights. All any company will have to do is water down a new tech such that no compensation is allowed to flow due to proportionality. It may be called beef stew but our carrots and onions matter as much as your prime cut of beef. This is all about established big companies keeping outsiders out.
As far as I can tell this is Q's first legal loss. I think the closest was the "win" over TXN but without the license cancelation. From what I remember Q walked away from damages over contract disclosures. Nonetheless, this loss for Q is not good in the sense that NOK, the Chinese, Koreans, Europeans, Indians, and God knows who else will only be emboldened. The fact that this minor case will protrayed as bigger than it is only emboldens me in my long term view. This case was minor and not related to core business or expected business. No mention of CDMA or OFDM to speak of. The win was more important to BRCM than the loss to Q was. So here's to you BRCM; enjoy. Does anyone know when round three begins?
Thank you for the kind remarks. I think our world could stand for everyone to try and be more civil to one another.
I think that if anyone has a chance at keeping their rates the same it is Q. Use one, ten, or them all. However, let us not lose site of the fact that without Q this would not be possible at this time or in this fashion. They attempted to ignore, tried to work around, and later incorporated Q's technology. Why would that be? That is worth something. What would the world look like without the gains provided by Q? I also think that without Q so called competitors like WIMAX would not be where they are at in the development cycle at this date in time. The very existence of Q promoted development in other wireless technologies sooner rather than later. In my opinion of course.
Win loser or draw time will tell. However, I will say that I am averaged down to the low twenty's and not only have accrued gains but have learned a great deal that I have applied to other investments. For me Q has been a road worth traveling. Thank you all.
I was over at Yahoo and linked to the Q's response to the Gordon and Myers fluff piece and now have a question. They reduced the declared essential IPR of Q from 279 to 30. Given the GSM guilds attempt at a work around why would they allow any Q patents into the standard that are not absolutely essential? I wonder if at the time those other patents were the only game in town so they signed up only to later offer other patents of their own design. Next step is to try and have those now replacable patents removed from consideration and demand lower rates. I seriously hope competition reduces NOK's influence to second tier. Did Korean's settle Finland or what?
That may be so but I have also learned in life that sometimes someone has to stop what they are doing and try a different tack. Why let the recent past dictate the future. It is the same for marriage, politics, race relations, and online investment discussions. This is why Grant's respect to Lee was so revolutionary. The future is ours to create.
Thank you for your response. I do have a couple of questions though. You stated "what they can't do one way they'll do another." It may be fair to say that is their stategy but it is possible that what they failed at one way will likewise fail the other. You also said "it boils down to the leader in late 2g early 3g gets the rug pulled out from under them OR they cut their royalties." I thought the leader in 2GSM was some other company than QCOM. So, again is it not possible that in a way you are correct that the 2G and early 3G winners will have their rug pulled out from them. Clearly another point of view sees Q prevailing on these two fronts. Thanks for the discussion and I hope you make money in your investments. Disclaimer: I don't consider shorting to be investing since the action is an asset sale and not an investment. Therefore, in your long positions I wish you well.
I beg everyone's pardon for the last rant. I was over at Yahoo finance and saw a news link that said Q was reporting next week and thought that was odd since I had not seen a discussion on it. So I went to Q's home page found that they posted something today regarding inter company royalties paid by QCT to QTL. Is this new or routine? Thank you in advance.
I have seen you work now for several years since the AOL board at least. All of that aside would you please give me some background on where your point of view comes from? Is it just the my team your team mindset or do you instead prefer the shaking of the pot? Did you early on miss the boat so instead hitched your wagon to the next best hopefull and are still bitter about it? This running has me tired. Nonetheless, Punkin611 give me some details as to why you are the way you are. Sometimes it appears to me that you resort to the "we have a patent so there it is" position instead of we have a product. Patents are good and necessay but in the end you have to deliver solutions too. Q did in fact have to provide the early infrastructure and handsets in order to ensure CDMA was successful. TDMA then GSM was different in that IDCC did not have to jumpstart the tech. Ultimately this has to be why Q is what it is and IDCC is too. You are Festus and IDCC is the Mule. Not to offend Mule's or the character Festus mind you.
I guess they must have been spending there R&D on more important things like TDMA instead. Maybe it's the most amazing and wonderful CDMA patent yet devised. Good luck to you. Then again you have to have something to hang your hat on.
Then again there is always that great Irish punk band "the pogues" to warm ones spirits. Another pint please.
Formally the internet competed with the the original three networks and saw their share decline. As we enter the new mobile internet phase with broadcast beamed alongside the internet will this give the old media a new lease on life?
So if I have this right FLO will be doing in a mobile environment what WIMAX is not doing in a fixed environment. One would think it would be easier to go from mobile to fixed than it would be for the as yet to be fixed go mobile in WIMAX. The gates are open and away they go. Does anyone know where the rollout of DVB-H is?
Why because he says so. What other reason could he need?
Yet you wish IDCC had Q's "problems." It seems to me that you suffer from a case of business envy.
"be able to collect FRAND royalties of 1% to 1.5%."
I'm glad someone has decided what FRAND is. Thank you so very much.
"I respect Qualcomm but I won't support what appear to be outrageous royalty demands that may be inhibiting InterDig's licensing efforts (JMDO)."
Hmm, this kind of reasoning sounds like "hey, they are charging to much and thats stopping us from selling our cheaper wares." Go figure?
Thank you and a Merry Christmas and good health to you too. Hopefully they must be current going forward with a payment plan for prior royalties to be completed by the end of the year. In the end I am not worried one bit about Pantech or the added legal costs. Q did not get where they are by listening to nerveous nellies on stock message boards.
So the Pantech news was a big deal right? I suspect that soon all important vendors are made whole. I was trolling the FT site and read this:
"Investors laud Pantech debt rescheduling plan
By Song Jung-a in Seoul
Published: December 19 2006 00:02 | Last updated: December 19 2006 00:02
South Korean investors on Monday reacted positively to news that creditors of mobile phone maker Pantech had accepted a plan to reschedule more than $1.6bn in debt.
Pantech, the world's seventh-largest handset maker and Korea’s third largest, has invested heavily in research and development and marketing to promote its brand in overseas markets and crack the global top five. Pantech and affiliate Pantech & Curitel racked up Won74bn in operating losses in the first nine months of 2006.
The rest of this article is for FT.com subscribers only"
Sorry for the pile-on [almost] everyone, it is late.
You sound like a recent grad school graduate. Did you come up with your cost control ideas all on your own? I suppose a good time-management study of what the lawyers are doing minute by minute might make you fell better. Go find some rust belt has been and preach your cost control visions there. Then again you could always climb a mountain in search of perspective.
I bit touchy for a newbie but what else to expect. Q makes what percentage net? Most companies are lucky to get a third of that. Sow how high would you prefer their net income to be as a percentage of sales? Maybe you should listen to the old timers for a while before you spout vomit from your mouth. Such is the difference between adulthood and adolescence. Thin skin does not make many friends.
I would like to remind some people that they are fighting over BILLIONS of dollars here. Also, considering that these cases can take several years to resolve exactly what kind of immediate results do some people want? I guess they feel they should be cc'd to every memo. Hindsight truely is 20/20 and people who profess to know what everybody else should be doing usually don't know squat. Q has a good track record and reasonable people should let management do what they are paid to do and not second guess every decision.
God I hope you're not a Q shareholder. I'm not even sure where to start let alone should I. If your post is on the up and up I suggest you go back and read the chapter again.
Yet Democrats recoil at McCarthy's name. Hmm, life is easy if you're a Democrat. Didn't little Teddy get a certain Senate seat set aside for him even though he had little experience? I'll take nepotism in business over government any day.
Seems to me that if NOK wants to count Trimble in their corner Q should be likewise able to count their own pass through rights in theirs. Tit tat, this or that, you still pay. But I don't wanna they cry. Poor little buggers. Somebody give'em a hanky "Q"uick.
I suppose in a perfect world we would all have up days. Rainbows and butterflies for all. But what about the shorts? Is their world somewhere out there in the cold and the dark, or do their updays count as bad days and therefore all is well in somewhereville. I suggest you go back and rewatch the great episodes of Kung Fu. Only then will you know.
Why are they now talking about a "partial expiration" of NOK's license? What part? CDMA only? What part? I would think that those parts that don't expire would if they are royalty bearing continue to pay/write checks to Q. I thought NOK said no $$$ after 4/7/07?
Have you ever stopped to consider that maybe, just maybe, you have it all wrong? Then what? Please don't tell me again how they have the goods. If IDCC were as strong as you say they would not be the little fish that they are now. Please tell me why it is that a company that is alledgedly so strong has to fight for every last scrap after the fact? Facts are facts and reality is reality. IDCC is what IDCC is: not much.
Like my dad always said "fair is the weather report."
Oh nooooo, "it's the end of the world as we know it." I feel fine..........