duzi,

i got the boot as well.i got a great laugh out of the last pr.
Im not sure which team they team with. certainly not the "A" team.I wouldn't be proud of any kind of PR assoicated with them.Unless of course its great thing to team with a company that hasn't done a darn thing other then fall apart...

And the best part is looking at the bagholders, who enjoy being duped into believing that there is any credibility left.

not that I wasnt a sucker as well, but unlike our fallen heros I know a burning building when I see one.

"Thank you Rob Bleckman for all of your hard work for this company. IMO, Rob's contacts and connections played a role in this new development."

oK..... ok, if you ask Rob to count to ten, he;ll hold out his hands...get to 6 and then smile.......

they are teaming?>?LOLOL with another compnay? this is the poofy... of all prs....... what a farse gte has become....

on that news not even 300 grand has traded.

pathetic

sell here. the walls are caving in. you will lose all your money.
r

Hi,
Actually I cost averaged down. I expect approval for provenege on a limited basis, then were off to the races. and did I mention, they are the lead horse and second best is a mile behind. major grass roots war for efficacy of product. last week some loons paid $25 grand for an article in the wash post.
just like GTE in the post NOT!

I dont like giving advice, but a steak dinner is better then a kick in the but. take your money and invest in DNDN

No use trying to explain that the brothers are going to protect their interests first.GTEM is toast under the current conditions of ownership

My experience is that once the lawsuits start, emotions take over,and gte itself will pay with its life.

I find it interesting that Vern has thrown his hat into the ring, looking to run off with the dead body.Personally, I think the man is a nut, who needs to be in a strait jacket and given lithium with a grommet.

in fact.... perhaps you should tell some of the others on the board to move on....They booted me for giving an opinion they didnt want to hear....

its all bs. all of it!

really? they had to restate 120 mil in revenue becuase they carried it incorrectly on their books.Not only is GTE inept at following through with a business strategy,they had no accounting dept, or an immoral one which is worse.
Don't hold to see the end of this movie.sell what you can

Frank,
Is it true they reposessed the strat? I picture 10 sheriffs holding 12 teathers trying to shove it in a truck....
too funny

I'd say a whole lot better the GTEMs'LOL

phineas

just put all your money, execept that which you need for the rent, and buy DNDN. Hold it for a few years then go skipping accross the globe.

The drug will be approved.I havent read other info that is of agumement for more testing, worth letting advanced cases die earlier.
80% chance fully approved
90% some approval with more testing.

I like the odds.

SELL GTEM AT ALL COSTS IN THE AM AND BUY DNDN..... ITS YOUR LAST CHANCE


Re: Is intelligent debate allowed here?
Counterpoint1:

A. Past calculations on the annual maximum capacity of DNDN;s NJ facility by redplate (who has designed a similar facility) and myself for the maximum 96 workstation capacity have varied somewhat, but DNDN has indicated that it could produce $1 billion in sales. Assuming that the net sales price to DNDN is about $10,000 a dose (with the basic three dose course of initial therapy), that suggests that the maximum annual capacity will be about 100,000 doses for about 33,000 men. Without getting into shifts and the ideal number of centrifuges, washing stations, pulsing staitions etc, in each production workstation, the total plant employement for a 365, 24/7 operation should be on the order of 300 employees. Even at an extrsordinarily high average compenstaion of $100,000 per employee, direct labor cost would be some 3% of sales at maximum capacity. According to the Phase 2 studies, something like 40mL of fusion antigen is required per dose; the commercial scale inspection indicated that it is produced in 2000 L volume, which should produce enough for some 50,000 doses. So, two commercial batches should produce enough for the annual production.If each dose's fusion antigen were to cost $1,000, Diosynth would be recording revenues of $10o million a year (not too shabby) and the fusion antigen would represent some 10% of manufacturing costs. So, if labor and the primary ingredient cost some 13% of the selling price of a dose, and skipping the additional cost details, you can assume that direct handling, manufacturing, labor, overhead and utilities, management etc, should not cost more than about 30%, for a direct mfg margin of some 70% - the norm in many pharma companies. In DNA's case, with heavy R&D spending on new therapies, that produces a net after tax margin if some 20%. BTW, the autologous nature of Provenge and its ex vivo maturation of dendritic antigen presenting cells is what makes it work, while dozens of other vaccine attempts based on recuitment of dendritic cells at the injection site have failed. What is a cheaper process worth if it doesn't work?

B. The margins are competitive. In a recent quarter, CELG had revenues of approximately $250 MM, after tax profits of $80MM and a market cap of $20 billion. You do the math. The 2005 NODB /SEER database listed some 48,000 men with AIPC/HRPC and 383,000 with advanced PC, most ststistically already experiencing metastases, and with a large and growing number of hormone senstirive PC cells. In immunotherapy, early treatemnt when tumor burden is low is universally accepted as being better. Approximately one third of the 383,000 men actually enter a predominantly HRPC pool each year;when left untreated, they have a median life expectancy of 16 to 18 months. Wouldn't you take the equivalent of three flu shots to triple your chances of being alive 36 months after becoming a AIPC/HRPC patient?

C. The more amazing thing is that the 9901 Provenge Time to Progression, the primary endpoint, would have been easily statistically significant under the new trial paradigm for cancer vaccines and immunotherapies worked out over a year by the FDA, NCI and leading academics from around the world. Yet, the Advisory Committee was not told by the FDA bioststistician that actual clinical experience in a multitude of xvaccine trials that showed that immunotherapies dempnstrated a Delayed Effect of several months before slowing progression. There should never have been any question raised about 9901's TTP since the way it was handled was extremely unfair to DNDN. Under the new rules the 9901 TTP was clearly statistically significant.

D. First of all, 9902b will be successful. Secondly, the basic protocol will be obsolete by 2010 and replaced by Provenge with limited taxane dosing and Provenge boosters, which will finally begin to make PC a truly manageable disease. See my earlier post on Provenge and Taxanes on the MB.

E. Caggiano - Lupron, etc. The AACR meets in LA next week. DNDN's DR. Frohlich has a poster presentation. How many of the expected 19,000 docs attending will arrive or leave without knowing of Dendreon? The AUA annual meeting is at the end of May. How many urologists will leave without knowing about Provenge? The Annual ASCO meeting in Chicago in June will have some 20,000 oncologists attending from around the world. How many do you think will leave without discussing DNDN's immunotherapies? How many of the 481,000 US men with advanced PC and AIPC/HRPC, with anxiety about what is now certain death in the near future, will not search the internet and learn of Provenge?



F. The science and technology is bigger than any one man. Gold will either grow into his role, or will be replaced and retired as a very wealthy man.

G. The BLA would not have been accepted per CBER rules if the NJ facility did not pass an FDA pre-inspection. The processing is actually elegantly simple. As for sales, given the intelligence and motivation of the PC patients and their docs and the absence of any acceptable alternatives, no real sales effort should be required - more like order takers and schedulers.

H. I have run complex businesses, but none remotely comparable to the potential for unbelievably reducing human suffering and restoring dignity to men near the end of their lives, as well as for many patients suffering from other cancers with future DNDN vaccines. If you dig deeply to understand the science of memory T cells, regulatory T cells, and the use of adjuvants to both kill cancer cells and deplete Treg defenses, you will realize that DNDN has through hard work, risk taking and some real luck discovered a fundamental method of training the immune system to fight many forms of cancer. Whether by plan or chance, this result follows in the groundbreaking path of the NCI's Dr. Steven Rosenberg, IMO, an American hero and a worthy recipient for himself and his colleagues of a future Nobel prize in Medicine.

I have invested in stocks for many, many years, and have learned to be careful about recommending any company. However, I have unresrvedly told many friends and associates that DNDN in the single best investment opportunity in a public company that I have ever seen. It was true at $4 a share, and is still true at $18 a share. JMHO.

Good luck to those who believe, with good cause, that we are finally making real advances in the war on cancer.

Radondoc's post on Mondays information
Re: Dendreon's Provenge at AACR's 2007 Annual Meeting - Monday, 16 April.
Anybody who doesn't believe in the long term potential of Provenge has not read this most recent abstract to be presented at the 2007 AACR Annual Meeting this Monday. Two points that strike me the most: 1) Immune monitoring was obtained prior to booster at a median 21 months in the Provenge arm vs. 8 months in the placebo arm. This implies that placebo patients failed biochemically 13 months earlier than Provenge patients before they were eligible for booster Provenge or placebo. 2) The immune stimulation index more than doulbed when compared before Provenge booster to 13 weeks post booster. These 2 important points suggest that Provenge can prolong the time to biochemical failure in ADPCa which likely can delay the time to clinical progression, and booster Provenge can boost the immune response even higher which likely will produce a more profound clinical effect. These most recent P-11 results add further evidence in my belief that Provenge can become the highest selling oncology drug of all time. Cannot wait for further P-11 results at either this years ASCO or AUA meeting.

Good luck to all longs and prostate cancer patients.

cole,

oh my god... tell everyone on GTEM thread that if you cash ot at .27 and buy DNDN in the am, everyone will come out whole.

heres some more dd on DNDN

Re: Is intelligent debate allowed here?

"A. As an autologous therapy, won't the operational costs be significantly higher due to patient specific samples? If they plan on charging 'similar to other cancer treatments' and are around the $45,000 per patient, won't margins be significantly lower than other cos with cancer drugs? I've seen a lot of valuations based off revenue streams, but nothing at all concrete regarding operating income, EBITDA, margins, etc."


At around the $45,000 charge, the company has indicated previously that 70% margins are a realistic goal. Your reasoning is flawed because you mistakingly assume that the autologous procedure is expensive. Other than the cost of shipping, which is really insignificant, there is nothing in the process that makes it prohibitively expensive in relation to the charges. The process is fully automated and keeping track of each patient's blood is not an expensive issue given today's technologies...


"B. Assuming the FDA approves, and assuming a well negotiated ROW, what type of AIPC market penetration do you think would be required to justify a valuation of $4bn? If margins are significantly lower due to complex distribution, do you think Wall. St. will go with market competitive valuations on revenue?"

As answered in "A" above, the margins are expected to be at the 70% level so Market cap valuations of the order of 7 times sales are extremely reasonable in this business. As for market penetration, I think we will approach full market penetration very quickly (matter of months) as long as the patients are made aware of the opportunity for them to fight the cancer without suffering the horrible side effects of chemo. You can easily see by working out the numbers that your $4 billion valuation would be easily achievable in the first few months following approval and the only limiting factor will be the manufacturing which is currently limited to 12 bays capable of about 10,000 treatments per year. However, those bays can be replicated and increased to meet demand in a matter of a few months...

"C. Obviously, you all watched the panel do something that was unprecedented and unique in voting 13-4 for efficacy on a cancer immunotherapy. While history would indicate that the FDA would give approval, certainly there must be a wee bit FUD (as you like to call it) that the FDA can also do something unique in the handling of the final decision"

"Wee bit" is the right word here and that "wee bit" is about a 1% chance of the FDA requiring 9902b results before full approval. There is also what I consider a conditional approval whereby the FDA approves but not allow marketing until 9902b is fully enrolled. That I think has a 4% chance of happening and will simply delay marketing by a mere few months at most. Otherwise, I think we have a better than 95% chance of full approval as was evident from listening to the advisory panel meeting and noting that it was the people in charge of the CBER division at the FDA who intervened regarding the efficacy debate and changed the wordings of the question to make sure we get the endorsement of the panel. Perhaps you should listen to the panel debate to convince yourself instead of simply taking our word for it...

D. 9902B was the first trial to use supply from the manufacturing facility. If the interim results from 9902B are unsuccessful in accordance with FDA reporting requirements, wouldn't you agree that Provenge would be pulled from market and the antigen cassette technology platform would be forever rendered as unacceptable for future submissions such as Neuvenge that use the same platform?

Given the results of 9901 and 9902a, and given that the primary end point of 9902b, which has much larger enrollment than 9901 and 9902a, is actually the same cox regression analysis for survival which demonstrated a survival advantage in 9901/9902a with a p=0.0006, the possibility of 9902b disappointing falls at the same chance level of a meteorite hitting Seattle and destroying Dendreon, so I would not worry about that if I were you, nor would I seek solace from such an occurrence if I were a short...

"E. I think the one thing we should certainly agree on is that Mitchell Gold is out of his league. I've researched his history, and I think he's out of his league in terms of running a business."

When it comes to protecting shareholder value on a continuous basis, Dr. Gold has demonstrated a lot of inadequacies over the years Vis a Vis Wall-Street. However, he has kept his eye on the ball when it comes to the approval process with the FDA and you simply can not argue with success! Additionally, he seems to have surrounded himself with a strong team for running this business and, judging from how the FDA was handled, he seems to be smart enough to allow the people that are more knowledgeable than him to handle the specific tasks at hand. If I were you, I would not take a short bet on DNDN because of Gold because I think he has been successful so far on the important matters and I also think that Provenge and DNDN will succeed with or without Dr. Gold...

"F. Has anyone seen a single credential on any hired sales managers? While Provenge will 'sell itself' to some, you are investing in a sales team you know nothing about and that which has never sold a cancer immunotherapy. What do you know of their marketing strategies other than dropping a 100 reps around the country to deal with 40,000 individual treatments?? Any complications with the complicated distribution methodology would create operational overhead not built into any valuation models I have seen."

Perhaps your confusion here is a result of you being uninformed. I suggest you check the credentials of James Caggiano, the VP in charge of sales and marketing who actually left Abbott to join DNDN and who has previously led successfully the major sales force for Lupron in the treatment of androgen dependent prostate cancer. After you check his credentials, as well as those of his support team, you will conquer with me that your fears here are also unfounded...

"G. A manufacturing facility that has yet to be built out, a marketing team nobody knows yet, an unknown amount of overhead and maintenance and the longs believe this is the next DNA?"

Again you are uninformed here! The manufacturing facility has already been built in NJ and is already producing the processing samples. It is true that it currently only has 12 bays for processing but these are carbon copies of each other and can be easily replicated in a matter of months. In fact, this is the beauty of this process because a "pilot plant" can actually be quickly expanded into a major manufacturing plant without having to draw up new designs and make new constructions. Your other concerns here have already been addressed above so I am not sure why you keep repeating them... As for DNDN being the next DNA, the facts are that DNA's major source of income has been cancer treatment lately, and in a matter of a few years DNDN will more than surpass DNA in that category as the world realizes that the immunotherapy approach of DNDN is by far a better approach than what is currently available to combat this insidious disease..

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
As for you buying puts lately as a trade, you did good in the short-term and I think most would agree that when we hit $25 coming from $4, a slight momentary pull back on profit taking and hedgie manipulation was not unexpected. Going forward however, I hope you will do your research and conquer with me that full FDA approval is around the corner and a stock price of $70 following that is not an unreasonable proposition. Perhaps there will be a few more days of "FUD" ahead of us but this will soon change and I hope you will see the light in time to go long the stock and enjoy the ride upwards...

It is all very clear Now!

Has the FDA already made up its mind about Provenge?

The short answer to that question is a resounding ,"yes"
The past 6 months or so was all pre designed by the FDA to give Provenge a Conditional Approval subject to final results of 9902B which is designed to complete enrollment at the time of "approval".At that point because patients would be infused at radomization,the primary end point is Survival and Cox analysiis is to be employed. All these items correct the original problems and act as a CYA orchestration. And finally to insure that everything works smoothly CBER will make the decisionon Approval or denial along with this is the new proposed draft on Conflicts of Interest regarding consulting fees from Big Pharma. The whole plan was and is beutifully designed to "thwart the Shorts"developed by a no nonsence guy called " Andy". I hope to shake his hand one day for the THANKS he deserves from all of us and all Cancer patients.
And further this is why the hiring continues unimpeaded . Dendreon is going to be ready to "hit the ground running"!

It is all very clear Now!

Has the FDA already made up its mind about Provenge?

The short answer to that question is a resounding ,"yes"
The past 6 months or so was all pre designed by the FDA to give Provenge a Conditional Approval subject to final results of 9902B which is designed to complete enrollment at the time of "approval".At that point because patients would be infused at radomization,the primary end point is Survival and Cox analysiis is to be employed. All these items correct the original problems and act as a CYA orchestration. And finally to insure that everything works smoothly CBER will make the decisionon Approval or denial along with this is the new proposed draft on Conflicts of Interest regarding consulting fees from Big Pharma. The whole plan was and is beutifully designed to "thwart the Shorts"developed by a no nonsence guy called " Andy". I hope to shake his hand one day for the THANKS he deserves from all of us and all Cancer patients.
And further this is why the hiring continues unimpeaded . Dendreon is going to be ready to "hit the ground running"!

I find it odd that some of the longs see huff at arms legnth over the boarder. For some people I guess its harder to take a write off then wake up call.

did you love the part where the Russians were going to cough up the whole 600 mil insted of doing just the deposit, for being late?

looks like the take down at the end of each day is poly to devalue the options. premimum loss is good for the shorts, ahead of the FDA approval

Id sell every share I owned of GTE if I were you and buy DNDN. I don't like the looks of whats left and unknown.


GTE is toast for the retail

Frank,

Can you believe that some people think that huff is going to be part of the mexico deal? LOL

kudos to you!!! I didnt sell, and really dont have too!! I'm going to pick up some more when we bottom! FDA is on its way!

cole,

I thought you were going long DNDN. you must have some deep pockets to cause the slide

yep, I felt strong about GTE. They became unglued after the empty russian deal. delisting, sec investigation, ugh. I took my loss... oh well, on to the next greatest thing thats for real and even bigger!!!!!

DNDN provange and pipeline is going to be the most important FDA score since radiation.

Seems I still love big,no matter what industry.

now that we are on the same side of the fence....

hold strong, buy and dont sell and dont margin! ever!

kudos!

Hi,
This ride isnt over. I have a Rabbi at Pru, that says, there isn't any stock to cover so the hedges are going long the options.

Its kind of funny that the retribution I sought came from DNDN. the shorts were made to walk the plank and took it in the hieny with no greese. looks like the upside is good to go... don't be suprised if some huge whales go belly up, from this action....

it feels good to give rather then get the shaft....

short squuuuuueeeeeeze coming

DNDN highest short squeeze ranking I have ever seen on shortsqueeze.com - Squeeze Ranking 1,116
See below. Anyone ever seen anything higher then Squeeze Ranking™ 1,116


DNDN $ 18.05
Dendreon Corp. 0.00
Shares Short 26,419,700
Days to Cover (Short Ratio) 11.1
Short % of Float 32.40 %
Shares Short - Prior 20,306,300
Short % Increase / Decrease 30.11 %
Squeeze Ranking™ 1,116
% from 52-Wk HIGH ( 18.28 ) -1.27 %
% from 52-Wk LOW ( 3.57 ) 80.22 %
% from 200-Day MA ( 4.85 ) 73.13 %
% from 50-Day MA ( 5.87 )
67.48 %
Price % Change (52-Wk) 310.20 %
Trading Volume - Today 60,231,346
Trading Volume - Average 2,389,100
Trading Volume Vs. Avg. 2521.09 %
Total Shares - Float 81,530,000
Total Shares - Outstanding 82,434,612
% Held by Insiders 1.00 %
% Held by Institutions 33.40 %
Market Cap 1,487,944,684
EPS -1.27
PE Ratio

Sector: Healthcare
Industry: Biotechnology
SI Record Date 2007-Mar
Information Provided Without Warranty

more DD for DNDN


Re: The Future of Provenge Use
<I say forget PSA, forget androgen therapy, definitely forget watchful waiting. Here's the future: a patient has a prostatectomy for localized prostate CA. Every 6 months he undergoes RTPCR screening of his serum for PSA (looking for evidence of metastasis). If his PCR screen turns positive, he starts treatment with provenge, followed by yearly booster shots. >

The P-11 or PROTECT phase-3 trial is testing this although at a slightly later stage when the PSA level has risen enough for patients to start hormone therapy. Initial results included stat sig prolonged PSADT and a 25% increase in Time to Metastasis. Unfortunately (for the trial, not for patients), metastasis could take years so the final data may be still a few years out. But when that comes, I do expect the result to be spectacular for Provenge by the hypothesis that the immune system once primed is great at mopping up residual disease.

If Provenge can be used to replace hormone therapy that would be of great benefit to patients. Androgen ablation caused side effects such as loss of cognitive functions, sex drives, feeling of weakness, depression etc. A recent research finding showed that even though patients may survive longer on it they also die more often of other diseases likely due to the side effects.

The ADPC market is about 4-5 times larger than the AIPC market so that would be a huge market expansion. The main issue with P-11 is that it isn't a registration trial so it is unclear whether the FDA will accept an sBLA based on it. Hopefully, after approval, a new round of trials can be conducted either by the company or other research groups to provide corroborative evidence when that time comes.

one more, from the smarter child... read this 5 times before you invest in any other stock for the next 5 years


Cosmosman,

I appreciate your posting and mostly agree with your points regarding Pazdur and his biased views.

However, your posting misses or ignores the most important aspects of my analysis or intent for my posting. I posted my analysis about a week before tha panel meeting to provide an "objective" viewpoint to counter the negative tone of the message board when DNDN stock price had receded to mid 3's and short analysts were making their final negative staements regarding the advisory panel meeting. Their was a lot of concern regarding whether Provenge will be given a positive vote. The most important parts of my analysis dealt with whether Provenge will be approved or not. I provided a balanced analysis as to why Provenge would be approved. (By the way, I have received many positive e-mails about this post and many have indicated that my analysis helped convinced them to invest in DNDN beore the panel vote or affirmed their conviction to hold DNDN into the panel vote despite the negative tone of the analysts at the time.)


As I included below, my major point was that the advisory committee will find that "evidence clearly demonstrates that Provenge is safe and effective for therapy of hormone refractory PC patients". I also predicted that the panel vote will not be close and that the "vote will be between 12/3 to 10/5 in favor of approval". The actual final vote was 13 to 4 in favor- so my prediction was on the money. Another important point that I made was that "Contrary to what some have stated in this MB, patient testimonials and evidence for public support of this drug will be hugely important for approval of this drug". I think anyone that attended the panel meeting will agree that patient testimonials were critical in influencing the panel's vote.

I also predicted that "Contrary to what many have stated, I think FDA will give full approval but will require Ph 4 study to complete the follow-up analysis of the 9902b study". We will know on May 15th whether this prediction is correct or not but I stand by my prediction. Prior to my posting, I remind you that the predominant view on this board was that Ph 4 sutdy will not be required. I stand by my predictions.


I have enjoyed everyday since the panel vote and have been smiling continually and I hope same holds for other DNDN longs.

I hope you do the same and remember that 13 out of 17 voted positive. I don't mind you criticizing my view but don't forget to mention the positives as well.

We won, let's enjoy till May 15th.


I have included my summary statement.


"In summary, from my perspective as a physician and a scientist, when all the data are analyzed as a package as will be done by CBER members, I think that they will see as I do that combined evidence clearly demonstrates that Provenge is safe and effective for therapy of hormone refractory PC patients. In patients that Provenge induces immune activation, the immune system attacks the cancer cells. Additionally, when Provenge is combined with taxotere, it has a synergistic effect- this is the future of therapy for PC.

IMO, I don’t think the vote will be close, I am predicting that the vote will be between 12/3 to 10/5 in favor of approval. Having said this, I think there is about 80 % approval and 20 % approvable with completion of 9902b. Contrary to what many have stated, I think FDA will give full approval but will require Ph 4 study to complete the follow-up analysis of the 9902b study. (When ELAN’s tysabri was initially approved for multiple sclerosis therapy, FDA also required that their on-going Ph 3 be completed as a Ph 4 study for confirmatory purpose.)


Some other opinions:

I personally do not ascribe to the theory that Pazdur or ODAC members are inherently negative about vaccine therapy or Provenge- they will make their decisions on the quantity and quality of data presented balanced with the need for therapy that prolong survival without toxicity.

Contrary to what some have stated in this MB, patient testimonials and evidence for public support of this drug will be hugely important for approval of this drug. If a CBER member is on the fence about the decision or leaning against approval, it makes it much easier for him/her to approve the drug if large number of patients provide testimonial about how this drug saved their life and for patients with advanced PC to state how this drug is crucial for their survival. If FDA members know that there is a huge public support for a drug product, they are more likely to approve the drug. I would strongly encourage all interested members to show up at the meeting or write thoughtful e-mails outlining importance of this drug fro PC patients."

hot zone.... yea I have a suggestion, sell the GTEM scam and buy into the cure for cancer.DNDN. I made all my money back and then some that I lost on GTE last week alone. a bigger bang for investing dollar and no shmuck of CEO like Tim huff to give BS projections, or cause an SEC investigation and delisting.



Dendreon to $30 this week; An Abrs short-term view....
First, and only by means of establishing some degree of historic credibility:

On March 19 around 2:45 PM I posted on the Yahoo MB (sorry, hadn’t come over here yet) that, “the put call ratio we’ve seen today indicates a clear short capitulation. We only go up from here.” Look it up if you like, I used the same cbg3618 handle over there. As you know, March 19 was the bottom

On March 28th (the eve of the Panel Vote) on this MB I posted that, “the stock opens tomorrow likely in the $18 to $21 range, maybe goes up a bit and then settles back. OK: so it opened at $17.92. Sue me. Now, it is true that I expected the stock to recover in the afternoon and close a bit higher. Shorts came back in and so did short-term profit takers. I'm always surprised when investors take a short-term view on a long-term stock.

One of the world’s shrewdest investors told me many years ago that ultimately, love and fear drive the stock market. This applies many fold to Dendreon going forward both near- and longer-term. He also said that eventually, after emotion is taken out, fundamentals drive price over the longer term. After more than 30 years in the financial markets I have come to recognize the brilliance of his insight. In the case of Dendreon, it works like this:

Fear: I don’t know if any of you have ever been trapped in a closet or locked in a room somewhere that you couldn’t get out of. But experiencing that sensation evokes a rather strong, visceral panic reaction. This explains the rather sharp, dynamic and almost scary spike we noted in this past Friday’s action where clearly one or more significant shorts saw the lights of the freight train bearing down on them and began covering at market. Those of you that watched the action in real time know this is accurate. Couldn’t you feel the trapped animal begin to panic? Now, multiply that times another 15 million with no exit doors in sight and you’ve got the feel of what’s coming this week. Hell, the animals might even begin to feed on each other. Fear is a natural human instinct and the longs are about to experience it to their benefit in a fairly abject manner.

Love: This concept is a bit more complicated to grasp in some ways but actually, will sustain and carry us (the longs) much – much higher over time. Mitch Gold and his crew love science and realizing the dream of what they are about to accomplish. Let’s never lose sight of that. The patients that will benefit from Dendreon’s work love life and living it with greater quality and longevity. Remember, those brave souls that bought stock at the bottom all the way on up to Friday played some material part in blocking the shorts from running this company out of business over the years and months of your investment/risk participation. Of course, if you’re long and on this board, you obviously also love money. That’s a good thing because, what you have made thus far will be multiplied many fold over the coming week, months and years if you hang around that long. I hope you do; you and future generations of your family will reap the financial rewards of your willingness to risk capital and your patience to hang in for the long-term.

This week’s predictions (although, Im’ in for the long haul; this is still interesting to contemplate):


Monday: Open $19.50 to $21.99 Simply put there are three factors in play here. (a) The shorts are screwed, they know they’re screwed and they don’t care who they trample to get out of the same exit door. IF – and this is a big if – the people long the stock would adopt some discipline and not sell any shares to them the opening spread could go much higher. (b) Weekend warriors. Dendreon more or less made every “list” there was late Friday and over the weekend. It’s showing up on lots of radar screens. No one wants to be left out of a “cancer vaccine” anymore than they want to be left out of a historic short squeeze. These are just the retail trade. (c) Hedge Funds and larger Mutual Funds don’t want to be left out in the cold either. You can be sure they’ll be looking to build and/or add to positions. They have an interesting dilemma; normally, they would simply wait for FDA approval. But they likely don’t want to pay $45 a share either so, some will start to nibble if their charters allow some degree of speculation. Don’t be surprised if we see a close in the $22.75 to $24.00 range. More if shorts really panic and rush to the doors. By the way, I’m still wondering who the hell is selling at all here?

Tuesday: Open $23 to $26. Dependant upon the degree that shorts get out in front of their problem (or not) on Monday this could be the “turn out the lights the party’s over” day. We all know that back offices and margin departments at every B-D on the street know their ability to loan out shares is fast deteriorating to zero so it is very possible that this will all come to a head sometime Tuesday. No one should be surprised if we see on CNBC that one (or more?) B-Ds is having financial issues over Dendreon which is code for, they’re unable to meet their calls. By Tuesday’s close, I believe we’ll be in the $25 to $28 range. Still; who’s selling to these guys; are you nuts?

Wednesday through Friday: There will be some very short-term thinkers and day-traders that will conclude (sans fact mind you) that “this stock is done going up for a while.” There may be some movement back and forth as they get out while others will be glad to get in at any price above the recent high. We should close out the week in the $27.50 to $30.99 range dependant upon what intestinal fortitude and wiliness to self-inflict pain the shorts actually have.

Actionable items:

(1) Don’t sell to these guys. Dendreon is a great long-term investment. If your horse is way ahead at the ¼ pole why the hell would you call off
your bet?

(2) If you haven’t done so already, call your broker and do whatever needs to be done to take your shares off of the loan to shorts list.

(3) If you hold calls, do whatever you need to in order to exercise them. I know it can be painful if you have a large number of them but doing so is a turbo-charger of sorts to underlying stock price.

(4) If you’re in a position to, add to your holdings. If not, just sit back and enjoy the ride.

As always, I admit that I might be wrong.

fun reading... this is the kind of stuff that gets your blood boiling, knowing you are in the right boat.


Dendreon to $30 this week; An Abrs short-term view....
First, and only by means of establishing some degree of historic credibility:

On March 19 around 2:45 PM I posted on the Yahoo MB (sorry, hadn’t come over here yet) that, “the put call ratio we’ve seen today indicates a clear short capitulation. We only go up from here.” Look it up if you like, I used the same cbg3618 handle over there. As you know, March 19 was the bottom

On March 28th (the eve of the Panel Vote) on this MB I posted that, “the stock opens tomorrow likely in the $18 to $21 range, maybe goes up a bit and then settles back. OK: so it opened at $17.92. Sue me. Now, it is true that I expected the stock to recover in the afternoon and close a bit higher. Shorts came back in and so did short-term profit takers. I'm always surprised when investors take a short-term view on a long-term stock.

One of the world’s shrewdest investors told me many years ago that ultimately, love and fear drive the stock market. This applies many fold to Dendreon going forward both near- and longer-term. He also said that eventually, after emotion is taken out, fundamentals drive price over the longer term. After more than 30 years in the financial markets I have come to recognize the brilliance of his insight. In the case of Dendreon, it works like this:

Fear: I don’t know if any of you have ever been trapped in a closet or locked in a room somewhere that you couldn’t get out of. But experiencing that sensation evokes a rather strong, visceral panic reaction. This explains the rather sharp, dynamic and almost scary spike we noted in this past Friday’s action where clearly one or more significant shorts saw the lights of the freight train bearing down on them and began covering at market. Those of you that watched the action in real time know this is accurate. Couldn’t you feel the trapped animal begin to panic? Now, multiply that times another 15 million with no exit doors in sight and you’ve got the feel of what’s coming this week. Hell, the animals might even begin to feed on each other. Fear is a natural human instinct and the longs are about to experience it to their benefit in a fairly abject manner.

Love: This concept is a bit more complicated to grasp in some ways but actually, will sustain and carry us (the longs) much – much higher over time. Mitch Gold and his crew love science and realizing the dream of what they are about to accomplish. Let’s never lose sight of that. The patients that will benefit from Dendreon’s work love life and living it with greater quality and longevity. Remember, those brave souls that bought stock at the bottom all the way on up to Friday played some material part in blocking the shorts from running this company out of business over the years and months of your investment/risk participation. Of course, if you’re long and on this board, you obviously also love money. That’s a good thing because, what you have made thus far will be multiplied many fold over the coming week, months and years if you hang around that long. I hope you do; you and future generations of your family will reap the financial rewards of your willingness to risk capital and your patience to hang in for the long-term.

This week’s predictions (although, Im’ in for the long haul; this is still interesting to contemplate):


Monday: Open $19.50 to $21.99 Simply put there are three factors in play here. (a) The shorts are screwed, they know they’re screwed and they don’t care who they trample to get out of the same exit door. IF – and this is a big if – the people long the stock would adopt some discipline and not sell any shares to them the opening spread could go much higher. (b) Weekend warriors. Dendreon more or less made every “list” there was late Friday and over the weekend. It’s showing up on lots of radar screens. No one wants to be left out of a “cancer vaccine” anymore than they want to be left out of a historic short squeeze. These are just the retail trade. (c) Hedge Funds and larger Mutual Funds don’t want to be left out in the cold either. You can be sure they’ll be looking to build and/or add to positions. They have an interesting dilemma; normally, they would simply wait for FDA approval. But they likely don’t want to pay $45 a share either so, some will start to nibble if their charters allow some degree of speculation. Don’t be surprised if we see a close in the $22.75 to $24.00 range. More if shorts really panic and rush to the doors. By the way, I’m still wondering who the hell is selling at all here?

Tuesday: Open $23 to $26. Dependant upon the degree that shorts get out in front of their problem (or not) on Monday this could be the “turn out the lights the party’s over” day. We all know that back offices and margin departments at every B-D on the street know their ability to loan out shares is fast deteriorating to zero so it is very possible that this will all come to a head sometime Tuesday. No one should be surprised if we see on CNBC that one (or more?) B-Ds is having financial issues over Dendreon which is code for, they’re unable to meet their calls. By Tuesday’s close, I believe we’ll be in the $25 to $28 range. Still; who’s selling to these guys; are you nuts?

Wednesday through Friday: There will be some very short-term thinkers and day-traders that will conclude (sans fact mind you) that “this stock is done going up for a while.” There may be some movement back and forth as they get out while others will be glad to get in at any price above the recent high. We should close out the week in the $27.50 to $30.99 range dependant upon what intestinal fortitude and wiliness to self-inflict pain the shorts actually have.

Actionable items:

(1) Don’t sell to these guys. Dendreon is a great long-term investment. If your horse is way ahead at the ¼ pole why the hell would you call off
your bet?

(2) If you haven’t done so already, call your broker and do whatever needs to be done to take your shares off of the loan to shorts list.

(3) If you hold calls, do whatever you need to in order to exercise them. I know it can be painful if you have a large number of them but doing so is a turbo-charger of sorts to underlying stock price.

(4) If you’re in a position to, add to your holdings. If not, just sit back and enjoy the ride.

As always, I admit that I might be wrong.

Next week will be interesting.I'm not sure the the world is aware of the implications of the looming FDA apprvoal for this class of drugs.

Next year should even be more interesting.


hope you longs are able to handle $$$$$ cause another boatload is coming to your portfolio this week


stay tuned.

Howdy,

Looks like alls good for lift off from here....

I thought this was a greadt post from the other board....


Re: Dendreon Presentation @ AACR - Sipuleucel-T generates a sustained immune response - Is this new and important?
<<More importantly, It "hopefully" demonstrates that the antigen Casstte Delivery platform could very well be the basis for CONTROLLING any cancer for which an anitgen can be identified. This falls in to the Holy Shit category as far as I'm concerned.>>

Petroplayer -- this is exactly why we longs believe that we own the next Amgen/Gen

rocket,

Ive read some real cool things.The company has deals in the wings with the biggest of the big.Lots of smarty pants on the thread. Not much pumping or bashing. I don't see why DNDN isnt a $100 stock in no time.

As for GTE I lost a ton there and held until the day,I asked a few pointed questions to Rob. Hes either FOS or a moron Now they want to re populate the board. As if you can take a eye drop squirter and presto a board member at any time.The SEC, the pink sheets
serinity now, missing tacos, etc..etc.....
IMHO

its a 1/100th of where its going.

cole,

you still dising GTE? cant blame you. they threw me out as well... look at todays pr... jv .. 250,000 customers? I wonder what percent of the after tax peso goes to such luxury in the boondocks of mexico.

If they pay $100 ea a year USD and we sign em up at 75,000 per year this is a 7.5 million/yr deal.

so what! Its a disaster since 500 mil was wiped out, due to what ever........

frank,

I spent some time reading, and learning. I say that DNDN is better then a good investment, I bet both balls that this is the holy grail of investments for the next 144 months. I'm about to turn several portfolios, so I can piker up, for the next 10 years. won't ever be a whale, but I won't have to cut coupons either.

You guys posting your professional opinions, have been more then influential in deciding how deep to go here. How many companies, are interested in dndn, I bet many.


humility and ability..

sell gte buy dndn