hot zone.... yea I have a suggestion, sell the GTEM scam and buy into the cure for cancer.DNDN. I made all my money back and then some that I lost on GTE last week alone. a bigger bang for investing dollar and no shmuck of CEO like Tim huff to give BS projections, or cause an SEC investigation and delisting.
Dendreon to $30 this week; An Abrs short-term view....
First, and only by means of establishing some degree of historic credibility:
On March 19 around 2:45 PM I posted on the Yahoo MB (sorry, hadn’t come over here yet) that, “the put call ratio we’ve seen today indicates a clear short capitulation. We only go up from here.” Look it up if you like, I used the same cbg3618 handle over there. As you know, March 19 was the bottom
On March 28th (the eve of the Panel Vote) on this MB I posted that, “the stock opens tomorrow likely in the $18 to $21 range, maybe goes up a bit and then settles back. OK: so it opened at $17.92. Sue me. Now, it is true that I expected the stock to recover in the afternoon and close a bit higher. Shorts came back in and so did short-term profit takers. I'm always surprised when investors take a short-term view on a long-term stock.
One of the world’s shrewdest investors told me many years ago that ultimately, love and fear drive the stock market. This applies many fold to Dendreon going forward both near- and longer-term. He also said that eventually, after emotion is taken out, fundamentals drive price over the longer term. After more than 30 years in the financial markets I have come to recognize the brilliance of his insight. In the case of Dendreon, it works like this:
Fear: I don’t know if any of you have ever been trapped in a closet or locked in a room somewhere that you couldn’t get out of. But experiencing that sensation evokes a rather strong, visceral panic reaction. This explains the rather sharp, dynamic and almost scary spike we noted in this past Friday’s action where clearly one or more significant shorts saw the lights of the freight train bearing down on them and began covering at market. Those of you that watched the action in real time know this is accurate. Couldn’t you feel the trapped animal begin to panic? Now, multiply that times another 15 million with no exit doors in sight and you’ve got the feel of what’s coming this week. Hell, the animals might even begin to feed on each other. Fear is a natural human instinct and the longs are about to experience it to their benefit in a fairly abject manner.
Love: This concept is a bit more complicated to grasp in some ways but actually, will sustain and carry us (the longs) much – much higher over time. Mitch Gold and his crew love science and realizing the dream of what they are about to accomplish. Let’s never lose sight of that. The patients that will benefit from Dendreon’s work love life and living it with greater quality and longevity. Remember, those brave souls that bought stock at the bottom all the way on up to Friday played some material part in blocking the shorts from running this company out of business over the years and months of your investment/risk participation. Of course, if you’re long and on this board, you obviously also love money. That’s a good thing because, what you have made thus far will be multiplied many fold over the coming week, months and years if you hang around that long. I hope you do; you and future generations of your family will reap the financial rewards of your willingness to risk capital and your patience to hang in for the long-term.
This week’s predictions (although, Im’ in for the long haul; this is still interesting to contemplate):
Monday: Open $19.50 to $21.99 Simply put there are three factors in play here. (a) The shorts are screwed, they know they’re screwed and they don’t care who they trample to get out of the same exit door. IF – and this is a big if – the people long the stock would adopt some discipline and not sell any shares to them the opening spread could go much higher. (b) Weekend warriors. Dendreon more or less made every “list” there was late Friday and over the weekend. It’s showing up on lots of radar screens. No one wants to be left out of a “cancer vaccine” anymore than they want to be left out of a historic short squeeze. These are just the retail trade. (c) Hedge Funds and larger Mutual Funds don’t want to be left out in the cold either. You can be sure they’ll be looking to build and/or add to positions. They have an interesting dilemma; normally, they would simply wait for FDA approval. But they likely don’t want to pay $45 a share either so, some will start to nibble if their charters allow some degree of speculation. Don’t be surprised if we see a close in the $22.75 to $24.00 range. More if shorts really panic and rush to the doors. By the way, I’m still wondering who the hell is selling at all here?
Tuesday: Open $23 to $26. Dependant upon the degree that shorts get out in front of their problem (or not) on Monday this could be the “turn out the lights the party’s over” day. We all know that back offices and margin departments at every B-D on the street know their ability to loan out shares is fast deteriorating to zero so it is very possible that this will all come to a head sometime Tuesday. No one should be surprised if we see on CNBC that one (or more?) B-Ds is having financial issues over Dendreon which is code for, they’re unable to meet their calls. By Tuesday’s close, I believe we’ll be in the $25 to $28 range. Still; who’s selling to these guys; are you nuts?
Wednesday through Friday: There will be some very short-term thinkers and day-traders that will conclude (sans fact mind you) that “this stock is done going up for a while.” There may be some movement back and forth as they get out while others will be glad to get in at any price above the recent high. We should close out the week in the $27.50 to $30.99 range dependant upon what intestinal fortitude and wiliness to self-inflict pain the shorts actually have.
Actionable items:
(1) Don’t sell to these guys. Dendreon is a great long-term investment. If your horse is way ahead at the ¼ pole why the hell would you call off
your bet?
(2) If you haven’t done so already, call your broker and do whatever needs to be done to take your shares off of the loan to shorts list.
(3) If you hold calls, do whatever you need to in order to exercise them. I know it can be painful if you have a large number of them but doing so is a turbo-charger of sorts to underlying stock price.
(4) If you’re in a position to, add to your holdings. If not, just sit back and enjoy the ride.
As always, I admit that I might be wrong.
AI
