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Err, SCOTUS deemed the government actions legal -- that is it, done and dusted, the highest court has spoken
So unlike Madoff's illegal actions
Was the government's actions MORAL, rather than legal? You can discuss that with God in front of the Pearly Gates...
Yeah, it has a shot -- and now the risk/reward is back in line. 10 times my money is worth the risk...
I agree about keeping it light -- life is too short as you note
Yeah, I saw the big dip, but the trend is back to negative it appears on JPS as well as common
Maybe it is just holder having to sell as their other positions are being pressured, but I smell something on the wind - something negative
I said before I would buy at 5% of par, or close to it, and I will when we get there in a correction - and I think a humdinger of a correction is coming
Well, basically, yes lol
If it was even slightly worthwhile then we would have had a lift on prices - the market told you what it thinks of this lawsuit (years and years after the statute of limitations as it is...)
You betting yourself too? lol
Only years too late, but otherwise great lol
lol, that quote is from Dec 2020, Ackman says the potential catalysts are...
SCOTUS decision -- whiff! Actually negative, cos SCOTUS is clearly anti "hedge fund vultures"
Trump/Mnuchin last minute release -- whiff!
Biden admin action -- TBD, tho not even on the agenda right now
So, I am no sure this was a positive outcome -- hence the colapse in share prices for FnF securities and still going down
If anything, I would say someone knows something about Biden plans -- hence sell-off in JPS with hedge funds dumping...
OMG, have you not learned anything about how federal courts work?
You are looking at years and years even if plaintiffs win in Lamberth court cos then it gets appealed and appealed
AND at the end of those appeals is SCOTUS which has shown its ideological distaste for FnF and hedge-fund vultures -- so SCOTUS will likely kill anything positive, by hook or by crook, for the plaintiffs
The courts no longer look like a positive route here...
Well, Ackman kicked me in the nads with his behavior on PSTH where I took a bath... otherwise I am doing okay and waiting for a big correction in the US
I may buy some JPS when we correct, since I expect FnF to go way the hell down -- especially since end of year tax loss selling is imminent
Hope you are good
Like watching a corpse decay...
I only come back here now and again, since it is better on fast forward
BOOM! 10% losses on JPS
The suit is way past statute of limitations -- be dismissed asap
Any ideas why double digit losses on JPS today?
So how, and this is not a snide or cheeky comment (i sincerely am interested in your reply), come you are invested in FnF given your carefully considered indexing approach?
I do like having 20-25% in special situations where I know a a lot, but where the received opinion may be off (think BK court, FnF, etc.). Is that what you are up to here?
Not disagreeing at all, but I do not have 25 years lol
double lol, i thought you said Septmeber
Stinkie, hi!
Can you tell me what month would be a good one
And it is October btw lol
Oh right, did I say 50 cents incoming?
Not looking rosy right now
Joseph, a dollar bet it is...
That was my call in a decent market correction
These hedge funds are going to get pasted imho, and then as we saw they have to sell everything regardless of prices -- and FnF is far from liquid market
...so when they start selling next time, against more pessimistic backdrop ex SCOTUS, I think it could be MUCH worse
BTW Was just visiting Pensacola beach and went down to see the St. Joe developments -- Berkowitz is no dummy, that is stunning beach front... rising sea levels and increased hurricane activity due to sea temp rises, not withstanding
Well, I am not timing in the sense I am 60% invested in various foreign markets -- I just am radically underweight US markets (except REITS)
And, yes, normal PE goes up and down with interest rates -- higher rates incoming... so one more correction risk FYI
All good, I prefer Europe and Asian stocks right now
yeah, indexing is great in one of the great bull markets of all time
glad to hear you made out :)
I have no margin, I have seen what happens when the crash happens
This time will be much, much worse
Cash is king at that point - Uncle Warren knows that too, tho who knows why he did not buy the Covid crash
I agree about margin -- we are at record levels of margin and household stock exposure
The margin has driven everything higher in a vicious upward spiral
And when it finally cracks the margin calls, and forced selling, will spiral us down just as viciously -- probably more so
This is one of the dynamics we saw in the boom and bust twenties
I have a lot of cash waiting for any bog move down, then I can buy those solid, cash rich blue chips and growers
I think indexing US large cap now is silly -- historically overpriced
I am indexing non-US growth and especially Asia ex China, plus some China lol
When we correct I will come back to US indexing
lol, I don't think they are terrified YET
I have a big bag of cash for the next big move, I may buy a little FnF amongst my other purchases
I expect to see FNMAS see $1.50 at some point in the next 1-2 years -- I will be waiting
I do think these FnF names can really crater in a big market dip, so that also got me worried -- Chinese names don't track the US market so much and I am terrified of the US markets right now
I thought very hard about FNMAT, but I bought a basket of small cap Chinese internet and cloud stocks because I thought the discounts there are crazy AND the policy is now anti-monopoly, "common prosperity" so the (good) small caps should pick up a lot of business...
I am still watching, under $2 for FNMAS would be worth a sock drawer investment - ie invest and forget
FNMAT is going great, wonderful reversal trade
Still, the REALLY big winner would be SHORT common and LONG FNMAT...
Like I said, 50 cents coming on common
JPS going the other way to common at the monent
Maybe that says that ONLY option for common now is Biden administration, since SCOTUS killed all real court avenues for common, and IF Biden were to do anything it involves massive dilution which kills common sp -- BUT JPS still have contract claim lawsuits, and others, so Biden would likely have to settle with JPS...
Just speculating...
One lesson of this whole debacle is that no one cares about housing -- no votes there at all
With low interest rates, the importance of FnF is hidden
Some of the folks around Biden engineered the whole set-up, so why think they will change course now?
Looking back, that was a great trade btw...
New price target for common = 50 cents
Only a matter of time, with common price slowly decaying, since Biden administration clearly has other priorities
A market dip will probably get us there as well
Except SCOTUS is not ideologically opposed to paying out the Powerball jackpot...
Yeah, looks like it will bleed till another rumor, so I will wait for that $1.50 on FMAT, maybe $1.70-80 on FNMAS
Hmm, seems like a great idea to follow an automated rating system's guidance on a singular special situation... how that working out for you?
Yes he did, mentioned his daughter's education fund was in prefs so that went up in smoke, plus the rest...
...the blood still flows it appears...
A lot of the feel good rise from a Biden rumor now circling back down the drain.
I may buy back into FNMAT when she hits $1.50 again, these 30% pops to $2+ are worth trading on their own -- got the get all the way down before the next rumor
And here is evidence that I was right not to go to Glen's site:
#fanniegate https://t.co/oBepCSvyBg
— Fanniegate Hero (@DoNotLose) September 15, 2021
I have to admit I have stopped looking at Glen's blog, at least he did not fold like HoldenWalker99 on Twitter...
Yeah, I do think it is all about the common's NFT's... I believe Ano noted the NFT's are not covered by the agreement between Treasury and FHFA or in HERA
Clearly where the big bucks are
Wow, JPS (like FNMAT) up 50%+ since Calhoun rumors
Common, up... errr, no, down!