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1) Anyone take note that the RXI-231 (skin-lightener) human testing has been delayed - yet again? This, after Pavco emphatically stated in the 3/30 CC that testing would begin in early April.
2) Not unexpectedly (due to no new data until H2), there was virtually no substance in yesterday's CC.
3) I found Eliseev's remarks to be enlightening (at least, to me) regarding the interest shown by outside Big Pharma regarding the immuno-oncology drugs. But let's be honest: it was more like warm fuzzy words to soothe the Nervous Nellies (ie, retail investors).
4) And judging by today's lackluster market action, the general public is saying, "meh".
I'll give credit to Geert as he's been constantly accumulating. However... the lack of meaningful participation by the other insiders remains a red flag.
I remain, The Cynical Long (as all longs should be with this company)
Is RXI going to get a 6-month waiver to stave off NASDAQ delisting?
If not, then by the time the consumer testing is finished, we shareholders will get screwed again with a RS. Never under estimate just how bad an investment RXI has turned out to be.
I remember it as the desire of not needing micro-needling. That step still needed to be done.
Today's press release says RXI-185 (reducing skin laxity) now has a topical formulation that doesn't require micro needling (if I'm reading correctly).
This is a big deal. So much so, that I'm now less pissed off about the RXI-231 consumer testing delay.
What insider buying? Geert's buys are all under $10K - basically, painting the tape. No other insider has made significant buys. It's difficult to believe in RXII if insiders aren't.
If there is high short interest, it might just be part of the equity raise / dilution process:
1) First, RXI arranges with Big Money to purchase 'X' number of shares in the future at a price far below the current point.
2) Then, Big Money shorts shares equal to the number of new shares to be issued from RXI.
3) When the "future date" rolls around, Big Money buys the new shares, closing their positions.
So long as the shorted shares are above the new-to-be shares, it all works.
I won't go into detail as to what happens to shareholders as there might be children reading this thread.
RXI adds no value to MirImmune acquisition as there's no money to develop the pipeline. I just don't get it.
And between Pavco leaving and Eliseev, as CBO, apparently not getting bites, I am growing ever more dubious.
The future: Unless an upfront $ deal occurs, the next dilution will wallop shareholders even more as a frugal $10 million equity raise won't even allow for development of the vaunted immuno-oncology drugs. (I know, it's difficult believe but numbers don't lie)
1Q2017 CC Date: Best Guess
Past CC dates:
1Q2015 CC May 13, 2015 (Wednesday)
1Q2016 CC May 12, 2016 (Thursday)
So I guess the 1Q2017 CC will occur on May 10-11, 2017 (Wednesday or Thursday).
Note that since this will be less than 45 days after the last CC on 3/30, it may be a non-event regarding updated status.
Buying the common shares makes sense if you want to trade for short-term gains. However, if you prefer having leverage (controlling more shares with same amount of money), the RXIIW warrants are the way to go.
Think of the warrant as a type of standard option with a few differences:
1) Strike price is $0.90 and expires 12/21/2021. I figure RXII will either succeed or fail long before that date.
2) Warrants are traded and are less liquid than the common (just like options). Meaning there's a larger percentage buy/ask spread than the common. Once the warrants are in-the-money, liquidity will increase (just like options).
3) Unlike options, 1 warrant = 1 share
4) Warrants are issued from the company (RXI), rather than from other shareholders
5) RXI has the choice to call-in the warrants (similar to callable bonds), when the share price is 300% of the strike price (ie, 300% * $0.90 = $2.70). The warrants would expire worthless in 30 days if not redeemed, but this is not a problem since you are exercising the warrant at a favorable price.
6) Current price: Warrant = $0.20, with the common = $0.78
Leverage = $0.78 / $0.20 = 3.9
7) There's 10-11 million warrants, so their exercise would be dilutive (ie, would create 10-11 million common shares)
There is lots of discussion regarding the Immuno-oncology potential (RXI is still in the drug discovery phase, so I'm reluctant to call them "pipelines" just yet). And while deals do occur with pre-clinical drugs in this hot field, there's no way to judge the likelihood.
So, in the spirit of "Will an upfront money deal occur within our lifetimes?", I'm more focused on RXI-231, the skin-lightening cosmeceutical.
From the CC (http://investors.rxipharma.com/file/Index?KeyFile=37076476):
Pavco: "We were planning to start in the first quarter of the year and actually everything is in place except we haven't started the actual study so it should be starting within the month of April for sure. ... So it should go very quickly once we actually get started early in April."
A minor schedule slip.
Call-in Question: "Would it still take approximately six months from that April date to [get to the] conclusion?"
Pavco: "I would predict it will be quicker than that."
In my mind, we'll know soon enough whether RXI can deliver the goods. Shareholders may actually be rewarded.
RXI-231 (skin-lightener) commentary is identical to what was stated at the 2016 EOY summary. Sounds like no progress was done during the last 3 months.
I am not a Happy Camper
My average warrant price is $0.184
However, after selling my common shares I probably lost $7K - $10K (I'm reluctant to tally the actually losses)
So far as the cosmeceuticals go - I really want to hear something substantive about its progress
While patents are necessary, they are not sufficient. RXI-109 also needs to work well (enough) to garner interest.
Sorry to be the continual wet blanket, but RXI has not delivered the goods yet. Having said that, I've upped my position to 20K warrants.
There still remains the minor task of actually making a product that someone (as in, Big Pharma) wants.
I think today's run-up on non-fundamental news (patent grant from Japan) is largely due to the day traders, whose interest and money is ephemeral.
I remain a skeptical long with a significantly increased position over the last month: sold 2,000 shares of common and bought 18,000 warrants - lots more leverage with the addition of a small amount of money.
I'm also more interested in the cosmeceuticals since they can be marketed literally years before FDA-approved products.
So the Adoptive cell transfer method for using/applying immuno-oncology drugs is established. Thanks for pointing that out.
There's an additional hurdle with immuno-oncology drugs:
How exactly are they to be applied?
The other self-delivering pipelines are applied by either local injection (RXI-109, anti-scarring), or topically (RXI-231, skin-lightening cosmeceutical). My guess is immuno-oncology drugs will need to be delivered systemically (ie, via the blood).
Go on Stocktwits and you'll see the reason for the run: a bunch of 14-year-olds (aka day traders) who just hit puberty.
I have no idea what that $63 million deficit actually means. Maybe it it's the amount RXI has burned through.
"accumulated deficit = $63 million "
It would help if you put this statement in context such as, where you read this, what it's talking about, or whatever.
I'm willing to discuss Little Green Men from Mars if you at least first explain what you're talking about in more detail.
And what do you thing the chance is that the presentation will be identical to yesterday's?
There is no reason whatsoever to think that "This is the one!" or "It'll be different this time!" That's Charlie Brown's wishful thinking when his sister, Lucy, tempts him to kick the football she's readying for him (only to whisk it away at the last moment with poor Charlie falling flat on his back).
Many investor's here could learn a lot by reading Peanuts - at the very least, they would lose far less money that they have so far.
I have a long position. I have also reduced my shares, switching them for the warrants (leverage).
Do you feel the MirImmune acquisition has, according to Geert, "enhanced shareholder value"? It certainly doesn't to me. Especially considering that the resulting dilution is the reason for yet another reverse split in the next six months. Possible good test data won't be available until H2 (ie, sometime between 7/1/2017 to 12/31/2017).
Will RXI be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat before then?
Will Eliseev's dialing-for-dollars bear fruit (ie, will Big Pharma pay up for discovery/preclinical stage drugs)? To me, this seems like desperation. What's it look like to you?
As for my wit - well, I like to make the case for how things really are; not wishful hope. Don't blame me for being cynical; blame RXI. Unless you just (very) recently bought your position, you're also well underwater. So you should be likewise cynical.
Golly! Geert bought a whole 10,000 shares! Wow! That's almost as much as he's paid when taking a dump at work.
"Don't worry about the status of all the pipelines. Instead, look at the shiny new MirImmune drugs. It's true that they're only in the discovery/preclinical stage, but I'm telling ya, they're the real deal! A game changer!
So step right up and buy our shares. I'm the only insider shill also buying shares, but ignore that detail."
These pops have happened before only to flame out. 11/15: $1.13, 11/21: $2.57, 12/2: $1.30, 12/16: $0.85 (dilution)
There's a reason why I'm a cynical long...
Until there is fundamental news, all you're seeing is day trader action (over at stocktwits these guys are acting like excited teenage boys with raging hard-ons). I'm all for upward price movement, but it's only ephemeral.
The Feb 14 & 16 presentations might say something significant. Who knows - maybe one day RXI will actually fulfill its promise,
The only other scheduled news event will be the 4Q16 CC (March 30?). RXI, of course, can continue to drag its feet basically stating, "We won't have anything to say in detail until H2". If so, that kind of attitude sure won't give me a warm fuzzy feeling.
By now, RXI has been doing presentations for literally years in the hope of getting deals - which haven't happened. The presentations are repetitious and largely attended by the same audience (IMO).
By now, Big Pharma knows as much as they care to about RXI. Geert has gone through his rolodex of contacts so often the ink must be wearing thin.
IMO, Geert buys token amounts to lure retail investors. Note that he makes a $500+K salary, so it's not like he's making a major commitment. Also, Pavco is the only other insider to have made at least a token purchase. More to the point: insiders have been correct to stand aside.
On another point, the MirImmune acquisition makes no sense to me. Desperation due to doubt of pipelines?
View From a Cynical Long
The 446,360-share (5.1%) stake by OPK is undeniably positive. I admit I'm at a loss as to why OPK did this - especially considering its previous RXI investment in March 2013 (http://bit.ly/2kgxR7c) has basically evaporated: $16.4 million for 113 million shares. Back-of-the-envelope calculation after the 1-for-30 and 1-for-10 reverse splits would reduce that share count to 376,667 shares, which at $0.70/share = $263,667. A 98% loss.
Ouch!
So let's look at RXI. Expected clinical test results in H2 (ie, sometime between July 1 - Dec 31 2017):
1) RXI-109 for hypertrophic scarring cohorts 3 & 4 (cohorts 1 & 2 results were a bust)
2) RXI-109 for both retina and corneal scarring.
3) Samcyprone for dermal warts
4) RXI-231 Cosmeceutical for skin hyper pigmentation reduction
Personally, I suspect RXI-109 will not produce significant results. I have no opinion on the retina and corneal tests. Samcyprone might work well, but it's small potatoes. RXI-231 would be a major major money-maker if it works well. Too soon to comment
And then we come to the utterly bizarre / desperate acquisition of MirImmune; a discovery-stage drug company. RXI has ZERO money to spend on MirImmune.
MirImmune's CEO was Alexey Eliseev, whose new role is now Chief Business Officer (CBO) for MirImmune's immunotherapy program. In plain English, Eliseev will be dialing for dollars - which is probably what he was doing at MirImmune. And the best deal he came up then was to be acquired by RXI. (Honest, I'm not making this up.)
Now ask yourself: Why would Big Pharma pony up money for development-stage drugs whose only purpose is to demonstrate a proof-of-concept that multiple biological targets can be hit within a single drug? I can hear it now "This is a virtually new miracle platform destined to transform medicine as we know it" (OK, my cynical words, but still, isn't that RXI's claim to fame?)
Considering that Big Pharma prefers phase 3 ready drugs (and even those can fail), do they really want to bet on MirImmune's and/or RXI's offerings?
Is RXI hoping for a buyout? Other than token purchases, insiders have not really bought shares on the open market.
So why did OPK buy another stake in RXI? I have no idea.
Before any True Believers respond, let me: You're in league with Satan, with Beelzebub as it were. You have cast doubt upon Exalted RXI. You have dared to come to your senses. Nay, a thousand times I say nay. I implore thee to once again to partake of the Pipe of Fantasy, to visit the Land of Lollipops and Fluffy Clouds and unburden thyself yet more of any and all pennies you might still possess.
"52 week low, after a reverse split"
As RXI makes all-time lows seemingly daily, don't feel too badly for Geert as he's pulling down a cool half-million annual salary.
In contrast, every year from 1997 to 2011, Steve Jobs made an annual salary of just $1 as Apples CEO, taking his compensation in stock options. That's called aligning your interests with company shareholders.
1) You're referring to an obscure intraday high; not a closing value. If you had simply mentioned that fact and the date, your original post would be clearer.
(How did you even find that date?)
2) While June 23 is not eleven months in the past, it is still five months ago. Not exactly "recent", is it?
Please write with more clarity, detail, and context so that you can be better understood.
So you're trying to defend the ridiculous by referring to an 11-month share price data point as recent, with recent meaning:
"recent: happening or beginning not long ago"
All I suggest to you is: Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt.
What I cannot accept is sloppy / misleading / disingenuous communication (of which you appear to excel at). That's what inarticulate people with poor judgment do.
People do not use the word, "recent", when referring to an 11-month-old stock price. At least, not people who can think.
"The recent high was ~$3.25" Unless you define recent as about a year ago (last Jan 22 to be specific), I'd have to disagree with you.
Keeping them honest, a never-ending job...