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Thanks for the survey - interesting to see the results... I'd reply again if you expanded for more questions.
It took me a little time to find it, but I wanted to compare how 99.9% Scandium purity relates to other potential mining projects.
I'm trying to compare apples to apples when considering what Scandium brings to the table, and what NioCorp reports on its economics.
Scandium International had their FS completed over a year ago - and here is a snippet from their website where their Scandium would be produced at a purity of 98 to 99.9% depending on customer specs.
Pricing Assumptions
The price assumption in the feasibility study is US$2,000 per kilogram (kg) of scandium oxide product, as an average price covering all product sold, over various product grades. Current market pricing, such as that can be established, is substantially above these levels based on small unit quantities and varying grades. This product pricing benchmark applied in the feasibility study remains the same as was applied in the 2014 Preliminary Economic Assessment ("PEA") on this Project, and for the same reasons. In order to encourage a viable, over-subscribed and vigorous scandium market, across numerous applications, product suppliers will need to provide for adequate supply of quality product, available from trusted jurisdictions, at prices lower than product trades for today.
In addition to limited publically available price quotes for scandium oxide, the feasibility study notes two other reference points on the US$2,000/kg price assumption. The Company has an offtake agreement in place, for 7,500 kg/year (3 years), with pricing being supportive of the pricing assumption in the feasibility study. The customer is a knowledgeable alloy group, with longstanding interest in aluminum-scandium alloys. The feasibility study price assumption is also supported by a recent, independent marketing report that examines the 10 year scandium supply/demand outlook, and includes scenario-based 10 year price forecasts. The details and contents of this market outlook report will remain confidential, but select information will be included in the feasibility study. Both of these reference points support that the scandium value proposition for customers/consumers is valid at this price level.
I suppose in the the not too distant future the FS, financing, and mine construction will align and fall like dominoes. At least that's the belief for anyone who has made and held onto the NioCorp investment. My personal hope/belief is that 5yrs from now we'll all be looking back and chuckling about buying shares at .56 a piece like some did today.
By a tempered expectation I mean that the FS alone won't send the PPS to the moon - but I do foresee financing and construction following soon after. Management had even made comment that construction can begin without full permits and finance in place (at least as I understood it).
I'd just like to see the share price surge above $1 US with release of the prelim FS numbers - with a steady rise after as the full report gets released and word of financing becomes clearer... again only my opinion, but I'm staying cautiously optimistic and holding onto this for the long haul.
I have tempered expectations for the PPS after the Feasibility release. Some seem to think the price skyrockets (and holy crap do I hope they are correct). More cautiously I see a steady rise upwards. The securing of various stages of finance along with commencing of construction will see more movement than the FS. Just my opinion...
CleanTeq and Scandium Int. have both seen a nice run up over the last 30days... There is confidence in the market out there - it'd just be nice to see it in our share price too....
IROC Trading Halt - IB
Feb 23, 2017
VANCOUVER, Feb. 23, 2017 /CNW/ - The following issues have been halted by IIROC:
Company: IBC Advanced Alloys Corp
TSX-Venture Symbol: IB
Reason: At the Request of the Company Pending News
Halt Time (ET): 11:07 AM
IIROC can make a decision to impose a temporary suspension (halt) of trading in a security of a publicly-listed company. Trading halts are implemented to ensure a fair and orderly market. IIROC is the national self-regulatory organization which oversees all investment dealers and trading activity on debt and equity marketplaces in Canada.
SOURCE Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) - Halts/Resumptions
For further information: IIROC Inquiries 1-877-442-4322 (Option 2) - Please note that IIROC is not able to provide any additional information regarding a specific trading halt. Information is limited to general enquiries only.
Says pending news from the company - nothing on their website yet...
That's the million (or billion) dollar question. It's not set in stone. "Imminent" was the word given in December - with Q1 being the general consensus it seems. Everyone's on pins and needles waiting for the release....
Made it up to .57 US and ended day at .55 US...
Yeah - I saw the Kaiser story and question how objective those are as they always seem to hype the Australian projects.
I do like the competition that these companies are creating as it appears it can increase the security/reliability of supply while not over saturating market (assuming the large latent demand is accurate as predicted).
CleanTeq is interesting in their shift of strategy to also include Cobalt...
Why are NioCorp competitors CleanTeq and Scandium International seeing a good bump in share price this past week? Am I missing an announcement or update somewhere?
My initial gut reaction didn't sit well with the PP - but then soon realized where the heck else are they gonna get the money? It seems sometimes we lose sight of the fact that the company produces Zero revenue. Couple that with the fact that MS put up 1/2 of the latest fund raising with his own $$$ would mean to me that he's extremely confident in the direction things are headed...
My opinion only, but I still believe we'll see the first release of FS numbers in February- with some type of announcement that sufficient funds were raised to carry the company to the financing stage...
No doom and gloom over here - I'll patiently wait for our day to come...
For anyone who is a napkin math wizard - what's the potential savings on the 7,000 tonnes per week of reagent that was going to come in on that rail line?
7,000 x 52weeks = 364,000 tonnes of material no longer needed each year...
Although I imagine they'll still need a small % of that as it's being recycled...
I see there is a bid for 103,000 sitting at .53 US. Starting a high volume week?
I've commented a couple of times that time alone isn't working any favors for the final numbers - even a 5% bump is a 50 million dollar increase. I know many improvements have been reported, but in the end I'm not hanging my hopes on magical numbers out of the Capex/Opex. Just keep it within reason of the PEA is all I ask. Financing and start of construction will follow soon after IMO...
Thanks for that article. Syracuse is only a short drive up the highway so they'll definitely see some of the increased activity through the housing, gas, restaurants, grocery, etc...
I also read the sentence about the 800 page FS report. It gives it a sense of being an actual tangible document at this point - and we'd all love to see a copy of that draft!!!
Back to .5381 US now...
Volume only 7300 so far - not sure what it is...
My TD acct shows .81 US at the moment
I called Vegas- they advise the current over/under is Valentines Day - Tues Feb 14th. I put $50 on the unders...
Obviously joking - but anxiously watching for that trading halt announcement. That's gonna be a good day!
Those are good points to consider. In my own mind I was preparing for any real surges in the share price to come after construction begins. I hope this board and investors in general don't get too worked up if the share price doesn't sky rocket when the FS gets released...
Doulgas - Somebody just dropped the name a few posts ago. Have you seen the numbers that Photonics_Guy posted back in April of this year? He's the only other person I've seen post detailed valuation numbers and tables... Look back to post# 17101, or search through his name from the April 2016 time frame. It did look like he ended up selling all his shares shortly after though, not sure why....
RJP
Loved the answer at the end of the live Q&A regarding whether the market will be able to absorb 10x greater Scandium production.
Not a second of thought or hesitation in explaining the demand is there and waiting - it's just nobody can step to the plate to meet it!
Everyone will definitely be interested in what happens to the original ~900 million Capex/Opex. That figure has been used for a couple years now. Passing of time definitely won't help, but we've never really heard how much the "process breakthrough" in Mar16 will affect those numbers. It also seems that with each press release they've made improvements along the way which should help the bottom line...
Based on the aggressive bidding for the Anglo mine, a buyout might not be all bad. The comparative valuation of ours was put at "north of 4 billion" by Jim/Mark. Although personally I'd like to see NioCorp build and control this little gem. I'm from Nebraska though so part of that sentiment is to see all the local benefits...
RP
Douglas - thanks for the info. I'm guessing you have a much more technical/financial background than some here on the board (myself included). What's your expertise if you care to share?
Can you expand on those numbers? I'm always interested in reading others views on the $$$ aspects of the project. Do you have any opinions on the financing portion as far as dilution or other factors in getting the project funded. Where do you see the share price going over the course of the next year, and what's your "target" price once mining is in full swing?
Thanks
I submitted a question for Friday's webcast update. I was fortunate enough that Jim Sims responded shortly after. Thought the board would like to see what he said;
Question- "How important is purity in securing Scandium off-takes, and where in the process is NioCorp in knowing the final Scandium product that'll be produced?"
Answer-
We are going to elaborate on this issue in some detail on Friday during our live webcast (following our Annual Meeting of Shareholders). If you don't mind, I'd like to wait until we convey that information then.
There is a good bit of ill-informed speculation floating around about scandium markets, its pricing, etc. Much of it is based on a fundamental misunderstanding about how specialty chemical markets work and the many factors that lead to differential pricing of these materials. Suffice to say that the purity level of a scandium product is important, but it is only one element of a much larger set of chemical/product specifications that customers demand for specialty chemicals like Scandium Trioxide. Different scandium products of exactly the same purity levels can command very different pricing, for reasons we will explain.
Thanks.
Jim
NioCorp To Host Webcast With An Elk Creek Project Update Following Its 2016 Annual Meeting
CENTENNIAL, Colo. (December 1, 2016) – NioCorp Developments Ltd. (“NioCorp” or the “Company”) (TSX: NB; OTCQX: NIOBF; and FSE: BR3) announces that it will provide an update to investors and the public on its Elk Creek, Nebraska Superalloy Materials Project in a live webcast at 10:30 a.m. Mountain Time on December 9, 2016, following the conclusion of its 2016 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders ("Annual Meeting").
Providing the update will be Mark Smith, NioCorp’s CEO and Executive Chairman. The live, listen-only webcast will begin at 10:30 a.m. Mountain. Members of the public can submit questions during the live webcast using the online webcast tool, or by sending questions in advance via email to jim.sims@niocorp.com.
Those wishing to view the webcast must pre-register here. Those wishing to monitor the webcast via a listen-only phone line can do so by calling the long-distance toll numbers listed below and using this passcode: 600-506-610.
United States, +1 (213) 929-4221
Canada, +1 (647) 497-9368
Australia, +61 3 8488 8981
Austria, +43 1 2060 92965
Belgium, +32 (0) 27 00 6376
Denmark, +45 43 31 47 80
Finland,+358 (0) 972 52 2972
France, +33 (0) 157 329 482
Germany, +49 (0) 692 5736 7212
Ireland, +353 (0) 15 621 584
Italy, +39 0 291 29 46 28
Netherlands, +31 (0) 707 709 521
New Zealand, +64 9 913 2227
Norway, +47 24 05 54 98
Spain, +34 912 71 8489
Sweden, +46 (0) 775 757 472
Switzerland, +41 (0) 445 1124 86
United Kingdom, +44 (0) 20 3713 5032 A recording of the webcast will be made available following the event on NioCorp’s website at http://www.niocorp.com.
The Company does not expect to release any new material announcements during the live webcast, but will provide an update on the progress of its Elk Creek Feasibility Study, which is nearing completion.
NioCorp’s Annual Meeting will convene on December 9, 2016 at 10 a.m. Mountain Time at the law offices of Dorsey & Whitney LLP, 1400 Wewatta Street, Suite 400, Denver, CO, 80202.
On Behalf of the Board of Directors,
“Mark Smith”
Mark Smith
Executive Chairman, CEO and Director
Email just went out that project update will be given via webcast after the AGM on Dec 9th...
How about this little nugget-
Donald Trump just appointed Todd Ricketts to be Deputy Commerce Secretary. Todd is the brother of Nebraska Governor Pete Ricketts. I like that connection!
http://www.omaha.com/news/politics/trump-picks-todd-ricketts-brother-of-nebraska-governor-for-deputy/article_8e049098-b718-11e6-9ed4-ffa49efbedf9.html
Thanks! I did receive my proxy vote. I'll be in Denver on the 7th and would consider staying the 2 extra days more for the experience than anything...
Sorry for the amateur question - but what qualifies as a "registered shareholder"? Do you somehow have to rsvp attendance, or merely owning shares through TD, Scottrade, etc.. will get you in?
Thx
What exactly does the new legislation cover? In my brief research all I can find is talk of streamlining the permitting processes- and most of that info surrounds public lands. Elk Creek is on private lands. Please share if anyone has info or links that talk about additional funding or mechanisms to help move our project along?
If my memory is correct it was a mid-Oct. live webcast interview where Mark Smith said goal was end of the year for FS release. He then left the door open slightly for after the first of the year due to the slow down the holidays may cause in the bidding processes...
I'm definitely invested - I'd say at this time my biggest concerns surround Scandium pricing and offtakes...
Look at the science behind about what the salt water impact will be on the Missouri River. If that's your only concern for the project you should back the financial dump truck up and enjoy the returns...
Thank You to all who served! I support our troops 110% - and am entirely grateful to all who gave the ultimate sacrifice!
Thank you Veterans
You are correct! I love that every time an update comes out it's an improvement on what was previously known or reported.
These next couple pilot plants should include some detail on their final Scandium product that will be available for sale. Even the SCY Feasibility Study (which one could assume is entirely independent of Nio's) listed Sc prices per kg anywhere from $1500 to $5200. Purity being an important factor I'm hoping the trend continues that Nio improvements will be producing a superior product. The SCY offtake they mention is 7.5 tons for 3yrs at an undisclosed price at 98.5% purity.
Off the top of my head I believe SCY's projections put the demand for Scandium at 200 tons per year - which is double what we'd even produce. The only benefit to SCY is that they're a surface mine with a lower "startup" cost. NioCorp will produce far more, and hopefully higher quality, Scandium - and the Niobium is essentially already sold.
I only use SCY as a comparison as they have an actual Feasibility Study published, and appear to be the closest "competitor" who could construct a mine that produces any significant amount of Sc...
CleanTeq is interesting in they report they will produce Scandium at 99.9% at an average price of $1500. Although they do make note that $1500 is significantly lower than other assessments. Their recent change in approach appears they now want to produce Scandium while also adding Nickel and Cobalt. The most recent I see is that they are in "pre-feasibility" on this, and I would assume be further behind in where NioCorp is at currently...
There were earlier questions about the Acid Regeneration press release. I went back and found in the PEA2 that their figures at the time assumed an 80% regeneration of the hydrochloric acid - the newest press release regarding the most recent pilot plant put the actual rate at 99.94% being regenerated. Not sure what that does to the bottom line, but sounds like a solid improvement over the original estimates...
Also since LCP mentions SCY (Scandium International) it prompted me to dig through some of their old information. A good read if bored would be section 19.1 of their Feasibility Study regarding Scandium including both its current and future pricing and demands. Prices are all over the board, but purity grades at 99.9 to 99.99 greatly influenced the price. I did find it interesting that SCY was claiming a 7.5 ton per year offtake agreement for 98.5%+ Scandium to a company called Alereco (seemingly a small capacity research and development company in my limited web searching). Anyways, here is the link to the Scandium Intl FS study if interested - http://www.scandiummining.com/i/pdf/Feasbility_Study-Nyngan_Scandium_Project.pdf.
Has anyone seen what purity levels Nio is projecting? It is either slipping my mind or I just can't find it jumping out of the PEA2???
I have no real opinions on SCY other than the interest of comparing their research and numbers to what NioCorp is presenting. I also have very little interest in political rants from LCP or anyone else. If I hear any more about "racism" I think my head might explode...
Would you be happy with a bid in the 5-6billion range? The FS will start generating the buzz, but I think the real activity will start on the commencement of construction. Having that guarantee that no last obstacles exist and construction/mining has begun will open the doors wide open in my meager opinion...
Good theory to consider nonetheless.
Mr Sims-
Your reply and attention to this board are greatly appreciated. As an investor, as well as a Nebraska resident, I couldn't be more excited for what the future is about to bring!
Thanks to the entire NioCorp team!
Russ